Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 6, 2025: Quiet Tropics, No Development Expected
June 6, 2025: No named storms or tropical threats in the Atlantic basin today, but signs of change are emerging. Sea surface temperatures continue to climb, and wind shear may weaken in the coming weeks. Now’s the time to review your hurricane prep plan.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season continues with a calm week, as no tropical cyclones or areas of concern are present. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirms no tropical development is expected over the next seven days, marking a quiet yet cautious start to June.
Atlantic Basin: Clear Skies for Now
From the 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook issued June 6:
No active tropical cyclones
No areas of concern
No development expected in the next seven days
The NHC’s maps and guidance reflect this assessment, indicating a continued quiet period. Notably, previous offshore coastal disturbances have been dropped and are no longer being tracked.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Stable But Still Warm
Warm SSTs persist in regions key to hurricane development:
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Western Caribbean: Remain seasonally warm (low to mid-80s°F)
Main Development Region (MDR): Still trending above normal for early June
While SSTs provide essential fuel, other atmospheric factors currently suppress development.
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear & Moisture: Conditions Not Yet Favorable
Wind Shear: Moderate across much of the basin, particularly in the western Caribbean and central Atlantic
Atmospheric Moisture: Rising gradually, but not yet supportive of storm formation
These conditions reduce the likelihood of tropical development in the immediate future.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: Suppression in Full Effect
A strong plume of Saharan dust continues to suppress Atlantic convection:
Dry air and elevated shear persist across the eastern tropical Atlantic and MDR apnews.com
The SAL remains a key barrier to any early-season system development
Expect this barrier to weaken later in June
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Localized, Non-Tropical
Florida & Southeastern U.S.: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms—normal for this season
Western Caribbean: Isolated, disorganized showers and storms with no rotation
Eastern U.S. Coast: No significant organized convection detected
These are routine summer thunderstorms—not tropical systems.
Thunderstorm forecast data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Typical Early Summer Conditions
Expect another classic June day:
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: Moderate to high, creating muggy conditions
Rain: Scattered afternoon and evening showers likely
Winds: Light and variable
Rainfall forecast data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Emergency Alerts and Insurance
Take advantage of today’s calm to:
Confirm your emergency alert subscriptions, including text and email
Review your insurance coverage and update policy details if needed
Gather digital and physical copies of critical documents
Familiarize yourself with evacuation zones in your area
Looking Ahead: Still Calm, But Stay Vigilant
NHC projections show no tropical development through June 13–14, but underlying conditions—particularly warm waters and gradually weakening shear—will become increasingly favorable. The primary barriers are the Saharan dust layer and fluctuating atmospheric moisture.
Remember: hurricanes can form quickly when conditions align. Continue to monitor daily forecasts at Cat5Prep.com.
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 1, 2025: Opening Day, But All’s Quiet… For Now
June 1 marks the official start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. No storms are currently active, but rising sea surface temperatures and favorable patterns suggest a potentially busy season ahead.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins today, June 1, and while the tropics are currently quiet, forecasters are already eyeing the environmental conditions that could lead to a very active season. For residents in hurricane-prone regions, now is the time to prepare—not relax.
Atlantic Basin: Calm Start to the Season
As of the latest update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), there are no active tropical systems, no areas of concern, and no immediate threats expected over the next seven days.
This quiet opening is not unusual. Early June often sees little activity in the deep tropics. However, this calm is not expected to last. Sea surface temperatures are running well above average, and the atmospheric setup is trending toward conditions favorable for development later this month.
Satellite data courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Running Hot
The Atlantic basin is notably warm for this early in the season, providing more than enough fuel for potential tropical cyclones.
Gulf of America (Mexico): 2 to 4°F above normal, with widespread areas exceeding 86°F (30°C)
Caribbean Sea: Similar temperature anomalies, especially in the western basin
Main Development Region: Continues trending above average
Historically, warmer-than-average waters correlate with more frequent and intense storms.
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
ENSO Neutral: La Nada Takes Over
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in a neutral phase. With El Niño in the rearview and La Niña not yet in play, we enter what meteorologists call "La Nada"—a neutral state that often removes inhibiting influences on hurricane formation.
Decreased wind shear is expected across the Atlantic basin
A neutral ENSO often correlates with average to above-average storm development
Other patterns, like the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), may become more influential later in the month
Saharan Air Layer: Dust Still in Play
The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) continues to stream across the Atlantic from Africa, bringing with it dry, dusty air that temporarily suppresses tropical development.
Inhibits cloud formation and convection
Increases atmospheric stability
Introduces vertical wind shear
The SAL typically begins to weaken later in June, removing one of the key atmospheric barriers to tropical development.
Saharan Dust SAL data courtesy of Windy.com
Eastern Pacific: Alvin Weakens
Tropical Storm Alvin, the Eastern Pacific's first named storm of the season, formed earlier this week and is now weakening.
Location: Approximately 710 miles south of Baja California
Movement: Northwest at 13 mph
Maximum Winds: 50 mph, weakening
Forecast: Expected to dissipate within 36 hours
Though Alvin poses no threat to land, its formation signals that tropical systems are beginning to stir in the broader region.
Alvin wind accumulation in Eastern Pacific data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Statewide Conditions Typical for June
Across the state of Florida, today's weather reflects classic early summer patterns.
North Florida: Highs in the upper 80s, lows in the mid-60s, low humidity, mostly clear skies
Central Florida: Highs near 90°F, afternoon humidity and a slight chance of thunderstorms
South Florida: Highs in the mid-80s, lows in the upper 70s, muggy with isolated afternoon storms
These are the kinds of conditions that typically precede the onset of more frequent tropical activity in late June and July.
Temperature across Florida data courtesy of Windy.com
Preparation Tips: Start Now, Not Later
With the season now officially underway, take time today to prepare while skies are still clear.
Review your family emergency plan and evacuation zone
Check and restock your hurricane kit
Confirm your insurance coverage and take property photos
Sign up for local emergency alerts and follow trusted forecast sources
Bookmark Cat5Prep.com and the National Hurricane Center
Looking Ahead
Although the season begins on a quiet note, forecasters warn that this calm is likely temporary. Record sea surface temperatures, a neutral ENSO, and easing wind shear all point to increased tropical activity as we move deeper into June.
Stay ready, stay informed, and check back daily for new updates from Cat5Prep.
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