Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 8, 2025: Dexter Is Now Post-Tropical; Invest 96L Gains Strength

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dexter exits the Atlantic, while Invest 96L shows increasing potential for tropical development. Conditions remain favorable with record-warm waters and weakening Saharan dust.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dexter is moving off into the North Atlantic, fully transitioning into an extratropical system. Meanwhile, tropical wave Invest 96L in the central Atlantic now has a high chance of development, and another system further east offers mid-range development potential.

Atlantic Basin Overview

  • Dexter has become an expanded, post-tropical storm centered near 41.4° N, 50.4° W
    —convection is waning and structure is elongated. (NHC advisory)

  • Invest 96L (tropical wave near ~38° W):
    Development chances now stand at 60% within 7 days. Recent observations show disorganized showers, but environmental trends suggest improved potential.

  • New wave along ~38° W with an embedded 1011 mb low around 17° N:
    Minimal convection currently, but models indicate conditions may become more favorable later this weekend.
    —Chance of development: Low in 48 hours, medium in 7 days.

Environmental Conditions

  • Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Remain strongly elevated—2–4 °F above average, with localized hotspots reaching 90 °F—offering ample fuel for future storm growth.

  • Wind Shear: Still moderate to high in the central tropical Atlantic; however, models suggest gradual easing may occur later in the month.

  • Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Though dust continues to suppress early-season convection, its influence is weakening, particularly in the western basin.

SST data courtesy of Windy.com

Wind data at 850hPa from Windy.com

Dust & SAL data from Windy.com

Gulf & Caribbean Update

  • No tropical activity present.

  • A high-pressure ridge maintains calm, dry conditions across both regions, with only typical late-summer showers in coastal zones.

Gulf Sandwich - August 8, 2025 - Cat 5 Prep

GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf of America

Caribbean Sandwich August 8, 2025 - CAt 5 Prep

GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean

Florida Forecast

  • Highs: Near 90 °F, with sticky, humid air.

  • Rain: 40–50% chance of afternoon thunderstorms driven by sea breezes.

  • Winds: Light and variable; no tropical weather expected.

Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com

Prep Tip of the Day

With Invest 96L showing increasing organization potential, now is an excellent time to check:

  • Hurricane supply kits

  • Evacuation plans

  • Emergency alert systems across your household

TL;DR – August 8 Snapshot

  • Dexter has become post-tropical—no land threat.

  • Invest 96L: 60% chance of development over the next week.

  • Another eastern wave: Low immediate risk, medium chance in 7 days.

  • SSTs warm, SAL draining, shear easing—conditions veering toward more activity.

  • Stay tuned—peak season is ramping up quickly.

For daily updates, stay locked to Cat5Prep.com.

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Alex Mitchell Alex Mitchell

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 7, 2025: Dexter Becomes Extratropical; Invest 96L Watches Intensify

Tropical Storm Dexter is fading, but Invest 96L is strengthening in the Atlantic with a 60% development chance. Meanwhile, another Gulf disturbance lingers. Get the latest real-time update.

Tropical Storm Dexter is nearing its transition into a post-tropical system over the North Atlantic, while a tropical wave designated Invest 96L is gaining strength and has a high potential to develop over the coming days.

Atlantic Basin Summary

  • Tropical Storm Dexter has sustained winds near 50 mph and is centered around 40.6°N 52.1°W. It's moving east-northeast at approximately 18 mph and is expected to become a strong extratropical low within the next several hours.

  • Invest 96L, a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic, now carries a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm within seven days. It's gaining better organizational structure amidst gradually supportive conditions.

  • A low-pressure area offshore of the Southeast U.S. retains a 30–40% development chance over the week, but is expected to remain well off the coast and should not pose a land threat.

Key Environmental Conditions

  • Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
    Waters across the Gulf, Caribbean, and Main Development Region remain 2–4°F above average, with locations near southwest Florida reaching nearly 90°F—providing abundant energy for storm formation.

  • Wind Shear:
    Wind shear is gradually easing, especially in the central and eastern Atlantic, offering more opportunities for systems like Invest 96L to organize further.

  • Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
    Dry and dusty SAL air still suppresses convection across parts of the basin, but its influence may be waning—especially in regions where moisture is increasing.

  • Seasonal Context:
    Meteorologists note an uptick in activity as August unfolds, in line with seasonal climatology and current environmental signals including marine heat waves.

Sea Surface Temperature imagery courtesy of Windy.com

Wind courtesy of Windy.com

Dust & SAL data from Windy.com

700mb Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com

Outlook Summary

Tropical Storm Dexter is at the tail end of its life cycle, now transitioning to an extratropical system. The main attention now shifts to Invest 96L, showing increasing potential for development, and a weaker disturbance offshore of the Southeast U.S.—both deserving close monitoring as we move further into the season.

TL;DR – August 7 Snapshot

  • Tropical Storm Dexter is becoming extratropical and poses no land threat.

  • Invest 96L carries a 60% chance of development this week.

  • Another disturbance offshore the Southeast U.S. has 30–40% development odds but remains away from land.

  • Warm ocean temperatures and easing shear are creating a more favorable environment.

  • The active season is ramping up—stay prepared and stay tuned.

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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 6, 2025: Dexter Weakens Over Open Atlantic; Two Systems Now Under Watch

Tropical Storm Dexter continues weakening in the open Atlantic, while two systems—off the Southeast U.S. coast and near Africa—are now under watch. SAL and wind shear are still limiting major development, but warm SSTs raise future potential.

*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.

Tropical Storm Dexter continues moving northeast and weakening, while the National Hurricane Center is now monitoring two additional disturbances—one off the Southeast U.S. coast and another tropical wave across the eastern Atlantic—with modest development potential over the coming week.

Atlantic Basin Status

  • Tropical Storm Dexter is currently well north of Bermuda, sustained winds near 40–45 mph, moving east-northeast at ~13 mph. It's expected to transition to a post-tropical cyclone by mid-week and present no threat to land.

  • Disturbance near Southeast U.S. coast (“Invest AL95”): Located offshore of Florida, now has a 40% development chance over the next 7 days. While significant intensification is unlikely, it may bring increased rain and marine impacts along the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coastal areas.

  • Tropical wave near ~30°W off Africa: Moving west-northwest, scattered convection observed. NHC assigns a 50% chance of development within 7 days, as it enters warmer seas and potentially weaker shear zones.

Key Environmental Conditions

  • Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Gulf and Caribbean waters remain very warm (29–31 °C), offering the thermal fuel necessary for storm development as conditions evolve.

  • Wind Shear: Moderate to high shear prevails across much of the central Atlantic, limiting organization of existing systems. Models hint that shear may ease near the western MDR later this month.

  • Saharan Air Layer (SAL): A dry, dusty SAL plume still covers much of the eastern and central Atlantic, suppressing mid- to upper-level moisture and inhibiting thunderstorm persistence.

  • Atmospheric Moisture: Improving across the western basin, especially near the Caribbean, though heavy dry air remains in many parts of the Atlantic.

SST data courtesy of Windy.com

Wind data at 850hPa from Windy.com

Dust & SAL data from Windy.com

Relative Humidity (700 hPa) via Windy.com

Gulf & Caribbean Update

  • No disturbances in the Gulf or Caribbean seas.

  • High-pressure dominance maintains generally dry conditions, with scattered showers typical of early August.

  • Expect stable marine conditions without organized tropical activity.

GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf of America - Sandwich

GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean - Sandwich

Florida Forecast

  • Temperature & Humidity: Highs near 90°F under humid, muggy conditions.

  • Rain Chances: 40–50% for afternoon thunderstorms powered by sea breeze activity—not tropical in nature.

  • Winds: Light and variable inland, becoming southeast near the coast.

  • No tropical threats are expected to impact Florida today.

Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com

Prep Tip for the Day: Monitor Beach & Marine Conditions

Though Dexter is offshore, it is generating dangerous rip currents along the U.S. East Coast—from Florida through New England. Stay behavior-aware and heed coastal safety warnings even without landfall forecast.

Outlook

Dexter is weakening but remains watchable over open waters. The disturbance off Florida and the wave from Africa are the two main areas of tropical interest, each with moderate development odds this week. Persistent SAL and shear are still limiting, but conditions may shift toward favorability as August evolves.

TL;DR – August 6 Summary

  • Dexter weakening, staying over the open Atlantic.

  • Disturbance near Florida coast: 40% chance of development, may bring rain and marine effects.

  • Wave off Africa (~30°W): 50% development odds in 7 days.

  • Warm SSTs support activity, but SAL and wind shear remain inhibitory.

  • No immediate threats to Florida; hazardous rip currents possible.

  • Watch conditions as hurricane season builds toward mid‑August.

Stay prepared and stay informed — daily updates available at Cat5Prep.com.

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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 3, 2025: Two Areas Now Under Watch

The Atlantic remains calm with no named storms, but two areas—one off the U.S. coast and another off Africa—are now under watch for potential tropical development. Here's today's scientific hurricane outlook.

*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.

As early August continues, the Atlantic remains without any active tropical cyclones. However, two areas have emerged as brown disturbance watches, as forecasters monitor subtle signs that could impact the Atlantic if conditions shift.

Atlantic Basin Highlights

  • No active tropical storms in the basin.

  • Two areas are now under National Hurricane Center scrutiny:

    Invest Area AL95: Expected to be a fish storm, it’s a non-tropical low just off the North Carolina coast—producing disorganized thunderstorms. (The orange X on the chart)
    Chance of development: Medium (30%) over the next 2–7 days.
    Movement: Toward the east-northeast at ~10 mph, expected to stay offshore.

    Emerging tropical wave off Africa: Near 30°W, forecast to move westward with scattered convection.
    Chance of development: Low (30%) within 7 days.

GOES-19 - Sector view: North Atlantic - Sandwich - August 3, 2025

GOES-19 - Sector view: Tropical Atlantic - Sandwich - August 3, 2025

Key Environmental Conditions

  • Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
    The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea remain very warm, with temperatures ranging from 29–31°C (84–88°F). The Main Development Region (MDR) is also running slightly above average. These warm waters provide abundant fuel for tropical development — if other atmospheric factors allow.

  • Wind Shear:
    Moderate to high vertical wind shear persists across the central Atlantic, particularly along the latitude band where Disturbance 2 is located. This disrupts the vertical alignment of developing systems and limits the ability of convection to consolidate around a center.

  • Moisture:
    Mid-level moisture is gradually increasing across the western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. However, the central Atlantic remains drier overall, especially in areas affected by Saharan dust, limiting deep convection and thunderstorm persistence.

  • Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
    A robust SAL is sweeping across the central and eastern Atlantic, characterized by dry, dusty air and suppressed vertical motion. The SAL also contributes to a stable atmosphere, effectively capping thunderstorm development and working against tropical wave organization.

SST data courtesy of Windy.com

Wind data at 850 hPa courtesy of Windy.com

Relative Humidity (700 hPa) data courtesy of Windy.com

Dust & SAL data from Windy.com

Implication for Disturbance 2:

While ocean temperatures are favorable, the combined influence of high wind shear, limited moisture, and widespread SAL intrusion is expected to stall or inhibit further development of Disturbance 2 as it continues westward across the tropical Atlantic. Until it reaches a more favorable environment, organization remains unlikely.

Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Region

  • No disturbances active in the Gulf, and high-pressure conditions support light winds and minimal rain outside normal sea‑breeze showers.

  • Eastern Caribbean: A wave near 68°W is producing localized storms over Hispaniola and Venezuela but remains disorganized.

GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf of America - Sandwich - August 3, 2025

GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean - Sandwich - August 3, 2025

Florida Weather Outlook

  • Highs: Near 90 °F under sticky, humid conditions.

  • Conditions: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms from sea breeze interactions.

  • No tropical impacts expected today.

Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com

Prep Tip of the Day: Know Your Warning Signals

Test your alert systems today:

  • Confirm subscription to NOAA alerts and local county emergency systems.

  • Test NOAA weather radios and storm tracker apps.

  • Make sure household members know hurricane communication plans and locations of essential documents.

Outlooking Ahead

Invest Area AL95, while moving away from land, bears watching if it gains tropical characteristics. Meanwhile, the wave off Africa will pass into warmer waters—another early‑August indicator. Meteorological models forecast these systems might strengthen if wind shear declines and dust regresses later this month.

TL;DR – August 3 Hurricane Summary

  • No storms currently in the Atlantic basin.

  • AL95 (off North Carolina): 30% chance of development over the next week. (Fish Storm)

  • African wave near 30°W: 20% chance of development within 7 days.

  • Factors are currently favoring disorganization.

  • SSTs are warm and moisture is increasing—conditions may improve in early August.

  • Immediate risk remains low; now is a good window for storm preparedness.

Stay alert and ready with daily forecasts at Cat5Prep.com.

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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 2, 2025: Watching Waves, But No Storms Expected

The Atlantic remains calm to start August, with no storms expected this week. A few tropical waves are being monitored, but dry air and wind shear continue to suppress development—for now.

*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.

As we settle into early August, the Atlantic remains quiet—no active tropical systems and no development forecasted over the next seven days. Although several tropical waves continue moving westward, persistent upper-level wind shear and Saharan dust limit their potential for organization.

Atlantic Basin Summary

Latest NHC Tropical Weather Scales:

  • The 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook confirms no systems expected to form within seven days.

  • Multiple tropical waves are active:

    • A wave near 43–50°W with scattered convection.

    • A new wave moving off Africa near 30°W, gradually tracking westward.

  • None display organized circulation or development potential at this time.

Satellite imagery provided by Windy.com

Environmental Conditions

  • Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):

    • 29–31 °C (84–88 °F) across the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.

    • MDR temperatures remain slightly above average, offering rising energy for late-season storms.

  • Wind Shear:

    • Still moderate to high across much of the basin, inhibiting vertical growth.

  • Saharan Air Layer (SAL):

    • Thick dry air layer continues across most of the MDR, suppressing convection and storm development.

  • Atmospheric Moisture:

    • Gradually increasing in the western Atlantic and Caribbean—monitoring for signs of improved convective support.

SST data courtesy of Windy.com

Wind data at 850hPa from Windy.com

Dust & SAL data from Windy.com

Relative Humidity (700 hPa) via Windy.com

Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Region

  • No disturbances currently monitored.

  • A dominant high-pressure ridge maintains light winds and calm seas.

  • Scattered showers along Florida’s west coast remain typical summer moisture—not tropical in origin.

Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com

Florida Forecast

  • Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F with high humidity.

  • Rain Chances: 40–50% for scattered afternoon thunderstorms due to seabreeze convergence.

  • Winds: Light and variable.

  • No tropical threats expected in Florida today.

Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com

Seasonal Outlook

  • The Atlantic season to date includes three named storms (Andrea, Barry, and Chantal), but lacks any hurricanes—a below-average ACE, echoing early-season inactivity last seen in 2009.

  • NOAA and CSU continue to forecast above-average hurricane activity overall, with 13–19 named storms and 6–10 hurricanes anticipated this season.

  • August typically marks the ramp-up of tropical activity, especially across the MDR and Gulf of Mexico, where conditions may become more favorable by mid-month.

Prep Tip of the Day: Verify Your Alert Setup

Now is a good time to:

  • Confirm you’re registered with local emergency alert systems.

  • Test NOAA weather radios and app notifications.

  • Re-check family communication plans and emergency kit locations.

Looking Ahead

While the forecast remains calm now, early August often brings the first major shifts in seasonal activity. Keep tracking tropical waves as they approach warmer waters and potentially lower shear environments.

TL;DR – August 2, 2025 Hurricane Summary

  • No active storms or developing systems in the Atlantic.

  • Several tropical waves are present but remain weak and disorganized.

  • High wind shear and Saharan dust continue to suppress development.

  • Sea surface temperatures are high and rising.

  • Historical patterns suggest increased activity may begin in mid‑August.

Stay prepared and stay informed with daily updates from Cat5Prep.com.

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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 31, 2025: Tropics Active But No Storms on the Horizon

Tropical waves continue to move across the Atlantic, but none show signs of organization. Saharan dust and wind shear are keeping storm development in check—for now.

*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.

The Atlantic basin continues to host several tropical waves—but none are expected to organize into tropical cyclones over the next seven days. Despite warm seas and increasing moisture, wind shear and Saharan dry air maintain a suppressive environment.

Atlantic Basin Summary

As of the 8:00 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) from the National Hurricane Center, there are:

  • No active tropical cyclones.

  • No areas under investigation for development in the next 48 hours or seven days.

The Tropical Weather Discussion (issued at ~12:15 UTC) reveals:

  • A tropical wave near 43°W (south of 22°N) moving westward at 10–15 kt, with scattered moderate convection between 4–10°N.

  • Another wave near 55°W (south of 18°N) moving west at about 10 kt, with minimal convection.

These waves are being monitored but show no organized structure or circulation at present.

Key Weather Factors

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
Across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and MDR, SSTs range from 29–31 °C (84–88 °F)—values supportive of tropical development if atmospheric conditions improve.

Wind Shear:
Remains moderate to high across most of the Atlantic basin, limiting vertical development of disturbances.

Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
Dry and dusty air persists across the central and eastern Atlantic, suppressing convection in the MDR.

Atmospheric Moisture:
While moisture is gradually increasing near the Caribbean and western tropical Atlantic, the dry air and shear continue to hinder system organization.

SST data courtesy of Windy.com

Wind data at 850hPa from Windy.com

Dust & SAL data from Windy.com

Relative Humidity (700 hPa) via Windy.com

Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Region

  • No low-pressure areas or disturbances are being tracked.

  • A dominating high-pressure ridge supports generally light winds and calm seas across the Gulf and Caribbean.

  • Offshore rainfall remains typical for this time of year—no tropical impacts on the Florida peninsula.

GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf of America - Sandwich

GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean - Sandwich

Florida Forecast

  • High temperatures: Near 90 °F under humid conditions.

  • Afternoon showers and thunderstorms: 40–50% likelihood due to sea breeze convergence.

  • Winds: Light and variable inland; east-southeasterly along the coast.

  • Precipitation: Not driven by tropical systems.

Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com

Preparation Tip: Review Your Evacuation Plan

Take advantage of the lull to finalize your hurricane readiness:

  • Verify evacuation zones and travel routes.

  • Confirm alert registration with local and state emergency systems.

  • Update contact information and checklist locations with household members.

Outlook & Future Signal

Although today’s conditions remain tranquil, the ongoing wave train emerging from Africa and gradually improving moisture and SST profiles suggest that rainfall and organization potential may increase in early August.

TL;DR – July 31, 2025 Snapshot

  • No tropical systems present.

  • Two tropical waves travel west, but show none of the structure needed for development.

  • Strong wind shear and Saharan dust continue to suppress storm formation.

  • Warm waters and increased moisture hint at higher activity potential in August.

Stay informed and prepare while the pace allows. Daily updates continue at Cat5Prep.com.

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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 30, 2025: Development Chances Remain Low

As July ends, the Atlantic Basin sees active tropical waves, but development chances remain low for the next 7 days. Discover the latest on sea surface temperatures, wind shear, Saharan Air Layer, and the outlook from CAT5Prep.com.

*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
** Due to technical issues on the GOES satellite imagery provider's end, we are currently unable to display real-time satellite imagery.

The Atlantic Basin remains active with multiple tropical waves stretching from the African coast to the Caribbean, yet no organized development is expected in the near term. Wind shear and Saharan dust continue to suppress cyclone formation despite warm ocean temperatures and a moistening atmosphere in the western basin.

As we close out July, conditions are slowly trending toward a more favorable setup for storm development heading into August.

Atlantic Basin Overview

As of the 8:00 AM EDT NHC Tropical Weather Outlook:

  • No active tropical cyclones.

  • Three tropical waves span the Atlantic:

    • Wave near 35°W (eastern Atlantic): Disorganized, little convection.

    • Wave near 50°W (central Atlantic): Producing scattered thunderstorms, no surface low.

    • Wave in the eastern Caribbean: Weak and encountering dry air and shear.

NHC Development Odds:

  • Next 48 hours: 0%

  • Next 7 days: 0%

Key Environmental Factors

SST data courtesy of Windy.com

Wind data at 850hPa from Windy.com

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):

  • 29–31°C (84–88°F) in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.

  • MDR remains slightly warmer than normal.

Wind Shear:

  • Moderate across the central Atlantic and Caribbean.

  • Suppressing vertical development for now.

Saharan Air Layer (SAL):

  • Strong dry air across much of the basin.

  • Limiting convection and keeping tropical waves disorganized.

Moisture:

  • Gradually increasing in the western Atlantic and Caribbean.

  • A factor to monitor as wind shear begins to ease.

Dust & SAL data from Windy.com

Relative Humidity (700 hPa) data courtesy of Windy.com

Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America)

  • A weak surface trough in the central Gulf is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

  • No signs of organization, and the NHC does not expect development at this time.

  • High pressure remains dominant elsewhere, with calm conditions expected through midweek.

Florida Weather

  • Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with high humidity.

  • Scattered thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening from sea breeze interactions.

  • No tropical threats to Florida at this time.

Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com

Outlook & Preparedness

The Atlantic remains broadly quiet for now, but the environment is slowly shifting. A steady wave train emerging off Africa and increasingly favorable SSTs point to a more active window in early to mid-August.

Now is the time to double-check hurricane kits, review evacuation zones, and prepare while the weather allows.

TL;DR – July 30 Snapshot

  • No tropical development expected this week.

  • Three tropical waves are present but remain weak and disorganized.

  • SAL and shear are limiting development.

  • Conditions should become more favorable by early August.

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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 19, 2025: Disturbance in the Deep Tropics Eyes Development

A tropical wave southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands shows a low chance of development as it moves westward. Conditions remain mixed across the Atlantic, but signs of activity are increasing.

The Atlantic Basin remains relatively quiet today, but there’s a new player on the map. A tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic—labeled Disturbance 1—has a low but notable chance of development over the next week. This marks the first sign of deeper tropical activity emerging from the Main Development Region (MDR) as we move closer to peak hurricane season.

Atlantic Basin Overview: One Area to Watch

As of 8:00 AM EDT Saturday, July 19, 2025, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring:

  • No named tropical cyclones

  • One disturbance in the central Atlantic

  • Tropical development chances:

    • 10% over 48 hours

    • 20% over 7 days

Disturbance 1 is a tropical wave located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, interacting with a broad area of low pressure. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized, but marginally favorable conditions could support slow development as the system moves west to west-northwest around 10 mph.

However, by mid-week, environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable, limiting its window for intensification.

Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com

Sea Surface Temperatures: Fuel in Place

Waters remain very warm across much of the Atlantic:

  • Gulf of Mexico: Holding above 86°F (30°C) in many areas

  • Western Caribbean: High SSTs remain steady

  • Main Development Region (MDR): Warm enough to support tropical wave development—an important factor as more systems emerge off Africa

These warm waters are key to supporting systems like Disturbance 1.

Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com

Wind Shear & Moisture: Still Mixed

  • Wind Shear: Moderate in the eastern Atlantic near Disturbance 1 but lower closer to the Caribbean

  • Moisture: Rising across the western Atlantic, but dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is still suppressing deeper convection across much of the MDR

While the disturbance has some support for development, these mixed upper-atmospheric conditions could limit growth.

Wind Shear July 19, 2025

Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com

Saharan Air Layer: Still an Inhibitor

Dry, dusty air continues to stretch across much of the central and eastern Atlantic. It:

  • Reduces storm cloud organization

  • Increases atmospheric stability

  • Weakens convection associated with tropical waves

SAL is expected to persist into early August but may begin to recede gradually.

Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com

Thunderstorm Activity: Isolated and Mostly Local

  • Florida: Scattered PM thunderstorms expected—typical for this time of year

  • Gulf & Western Caribbean: Moisture lingers but no signs of tropical organization

  • Off Africa/Central Atlantic: Activity is tied to Disturbance 1, but convection remains weak

Thunderstorm forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com

Florida Forecast

  • Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s

  • Humidity: High

  • Rain: Isolated to scattered afternoon storms

  • Winds: Light to moderate easterlies

Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com

Prep Tip of the Day: Know the Early Signs

With deeper Atlantic activity beginning, now is a good time to refresh your awareness:

  • Follow NHC's five-day outlooks

  • Understand what “low chance” really means—it can change fast with heat and time

  • Review your emergency communication plan and make sure alerts are enabled

Looking Ahead: Watch the MDR

While Disturbance 1 may or may not develop, its emergence from the Cabo Verde region is a signal that the deep tropics are beginning to stir. Expect more waves in the coming weeks as we approach the climatological ramp-up of hurricane season.

Stay informed. Stay ready. Your next real-time update comes tomorrow from Cat5Prep.

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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 16, 2025: Gulf Disturbance Lingers, Tropics Stay Quiet

A weak low in the Gulf of Mexico brings rain and storms to Florida, but no tropical development is expected. Cat5Prep’s daily update covers real-time conditions, SSTs, and what to watch next.

The Atlantic hurricane basin remains quiet in terms of named storms, but attention continues to center on a weak low-pressure system lingering over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although this system remains disorganized and development chances are low, it’s bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms across parts of Florida, the northeastern Gulf, and coastal Georgia.

While no tropical development is expected over the next 7 days, the broader environment is slowly shifting toward favorability, with rising sea surface temperatures, weakening wind shear, and the gradual retreat of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL).

Atlantic Basin Overview

As of the latest NHC update (2:00 PM EDT):

  • No active tropical cyclones

  • One disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico (Low development chance)

  • No tropical formation expected in the next 7 days

Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com

Disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico

A broad area of low pressure continues to meander just west of Florida over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico:

  • Development chances remain low (0% over 48 hours, 10% over 7 days)

  • System remains non-tropical and disorganized

  • Producing periods of heavy rainfall, especially across the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina

  • Some gusty winds and isolated flooding may occur, especially in areas with poor drainage

This system is expected to drift inland by late Thursday, reducing any tropical potential.

Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)

Ocean temperatures remain exceptionally warm, providing high potential energy for storm development once other conditions align:

  • Gulf of Mexico: 86–89°F (2–4°F above normal)

  • Western Caribbean: 85–88°F

  • Main Development Region (MDR): Now reaching 82–84°F across much of the eastern Atlantic

Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com

Atmospheric Conditions

Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

  • Wind Shear: Still elevated in the western Atlantic and Gulf, but beginning to weaken, particularly near Central America and the western Caribbean.

  • Moisture: Mid-level moisture continues to increase, especially in the Caribbean and southern Gulf.

  • Saharan Air Layer: A large, dry SAL continues to stretch across the central Atlantic, suppressing storm formation east of the Lesser Antilles, but it's expected to weaken by early August.

Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com

Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com

Thunderstorm & Rainfall Activity

  • Florida & Gulf Coast: Expect locally heavy rain and thunderstorm clusters tied to the Gulf disturbance.

  • Western Caribbean: Some disorganized convection continues, but nothing tropical at this time.

  • West Africa: A new tropical wave has emerged, but faces significant dry air and shear over the central Atlantic.

Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com

Florida Forecast

  • Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F

  • Humidity: High, with a heat index reaching the upper 90s

  • Rain: 60–70% chance of scattered storms in parts of Florida, especially in the afternoon and evening

  • Winds: Light southeast winds, with occasional gusts during storms

Prep Tip of the Day: Review Flood Insurance Coverage

Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage. Use this calm window to:

  • Check your flood zone designation

  • Review your current policy limits

  • Confirm your coverage start date (flood insurance usually has a 30-day waiting period)

With warm SSTs and an increasingly favorable atmosphere, inland and coastal flood risk rises as we move deeper into hurricane season.

Looking Ahead: Watchful, Not Worrying

Although July 16 brings no immediate storm threats, all eyes remain on the broader Atlantic:

  • The ingredients for development are aligning: warm water, weakening shear, and increased moisture.

  • The next two weeks may see the first organized systems forming in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

Now is the time to stay informed and finalize preparations—not when a storm is already on the map.

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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 15, 2025: Gulf System Organizing, Tropics on Alert

A weak low over Florida is drifting into the Gulf of Mexico, producing heavy rain and prompting close monitoring. While development chances remain low, record-warm waters and shifting winds suggest more activity is coming.

The Atlantic remains officially quiet, but eyes are turning toward the Gulf of Mexico as a broad area of low pressure continues to develop. Though not yet a tropical depression, this system is producing heavy rainfall across parts of Florida and may slowly organize over the next few days. Elsewhere, warm sea surface temperatures and improving atmospheric conditions continue to set the stage for increased activity as July progresses.

Atlantic Basin: Watching the Gulf

As of this morning’s update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):

  • No named tropical cyclones

  • One area of interest: Disturbance near Florida

  • Development potential: Low over 48 hours (10%), Slightly higher over 7 days (20%)

A broad, weak surface trough stretching across southern Florida is generating scattered storms and heavy rainfall. As it drifts westward into the Gulf of Mexico, slight development is possible—though wind shear and dry air may continue to limit its growth in the near term.

Regardless of tropical classification, this system is expected to bring:

  • Heavy rainfall across Florida and the Gulf Coast

  • Localized flash flooding

  • Coastal thunderstorms and rough surf

Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com

Sea Surface Temperatures: Primed and Warming

Waters across much of the Atlantic basin are running well above average:

  • Gulf of Mexico: 87–89°F (30–32°C) across much of the basin—ideal for storm formation

  • Caribbean Sea: Persistently warm, with temperatures near or above 86°F (30°C)

  • Main Development Region (MDR): Trending well above average for mid-July

This level of ocean heat content supports rapid intensification potential for any system that organizes in the coming weeks.

Sea Surface Temperature (ECMWF Analysis) courtesy of Windy.com

Atmospheric Conditions: Becoming More Favorable

Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

  • Wind Shear: Moderate across the Gulf and Caribbean, but forecast models show a gradual easing through late week

  • Moisture Levels: Improving, especially in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf

  • Upper-Level Winds: Starting to show a less hostile pattern over the Gulf and MDR

Overall, the atmospheric profile is trending toward neutral to favorable—a subtle but important change.

Relative Humidity data (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com


Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Retreating Slowly

Dry air remains across parts of the eastern Atlantic but is beginning to loosen its grip:

  • Still suppressing deep convection off the African coast

  • Expected to retreat westward and weaken through the next 7–10 days

  • This transition opens the door for tropical waves to survive and organize

Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com

Florida & Gulf Coast Forecast: Wet and Stormy

The disturbance currently over Florida is impacting much of the region:

Florida Peninsula

  • Scattered to widespread showers and storms today

  • Localized flooding possible, especially in urban areas

  • Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s°F

Northern Gulf Coast (AL/MS/FL Panhandle)

  • Cloudier skies and increasing storms through tomorrow

  • Elevated rainfall totals possible

  • Winds 10–20 mph with gusty thunderstorms

Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com

Prep Tip of the Day: Secure Outdoor Items

With storms increasing across the Southeast:

  • Bring in or secure loose outdoor items like patio furniture, garden tools, and trash bins

  • Clear storm drains and gutters to reduce urban flooding risk

  • Monitor flash flood alerts in flood-prone neighborhoods

Looking Ahead: A Pattern Shift Is Coming

Although no named systems are expected in the next few days, the Gulf disturbance is a reminder that even weak systems can cause significant impacts. Sea surface temperatures and weakening wind shear are setting the table for development in the latter half of July.

Stay tuned, stay prepared, and check back daily with Cat5Prep for accurate, actionable updates.

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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 20, 2025: Tropics Hold Quiet as Atlantic Patterns Begin to Shift

The Atlantic remains calm with no storms expected, but warm waters and shifting atmospheric patterns hint that the quiet may not last. A developing Atlantic Niña could hit a reversal and amplify activity later this season.

As we close out the third week of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, the basin remains quiet. No named storms or tropical disturbances are being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and no development is expected over the next 7 days. However, behind this calm lies a subtle shift in Atlantic patterns that may influence storm activity in the weeks ahead.

Daily Hurricane Update June 20, 2025 with Hurricane formation in the Atlantic being suppressed by Atlantic Niña

Atlantic Basin: All Clear—for Now

As of the latest NHC update (8 AM EDT, June 20):

  • No active tropical cyclones

  • No areas of interest

  • No tropical development expected through late June

This type of quiet is typical for mid-June, historically a transitional period before activity ramps up in July and peaks from August to October.

Satellite view via Windy.com

Sea Surface Temperatures: Still Hot, Still Fuel

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across much of the Atlantic remain well above normal:

  • Gulf of America (Mexico): Mid to upper 80s°F (29–31°C), 2–4°F above average

  • Western Caribbean: Similar anomalies, particularly near the Yucatán and Cuba

  • Main Development Region (MDR): Still warming gradually, trending toward conditions that could support long-track storms later this season

Warm SSTs are a critical energy source for hurricanes—and the heat is already in place.

Sea Surface Temperature (ECMWF Analysis) via Windy.com

Atmospheric Conditions: Neutral ENSO, but Atlantic Cooling Briefly

While the Pacific remains in an ENSO-neutral phase, a rare “Atlantic Niña” has recently emerged—marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic off the coast of Africa, as seen in the NOAA Coral Reef Watch chart below with a pocket of blue.

  • This can temporarily suppress early-season hurricane formation by reducing convection and stabilizing the atmosphere

  • However, models indicate that this pattern may reverse in July, shifting into a warmer Atlantic Niño phase, which typically boosts tropical activity

So, while the Atlantic Niña may be limiting development now, forecasters are closely watching the timing of this transition. Safe money would be on a reversal, which could super charge storm breeding.

Overall SST Anomalies which could affect Hurricane season.

Overall Scope of Sea Temperature Anomalies

Saharan Air Layer: Still Limiting Tropical Waves

Wind Shear June 20, 2025

Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

A strong Saharan Air Layer (SAL) remains entrenched across the tropical Atlantic:

  • Dry, dusty air suppresses thunderstorm development

  • Increases stability and upper-level wind shear

  • Common in June, but typically weakens by mid-July

For now, SAL continues to act as a shield against organized tropical development in the Main Development Region.

Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data via Windy.com

Thunderstorm Activity: Mostly Seasonal and Local

While no tropical organization is underway, convection continues to pop up in key regions:

  • Florida and Gulf Coast: Afternoon storms due to heat and humidity

  • Western Caribbean: Scattered convection, but unorganized

  • Eastern Atlantic: A few tropical waves exiting Africa remain weak and embedded in dry air

These thunderstorms are typical for the season and do not currently show signs of tropical development.

Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com

Florida Forecast

  • Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33°C)

  • Humidity: High

  • Afternoon Storms: Scattered area of thunderstorms likely after 2 PM

  • Winds: Light and variable, with storm gusts possible

Flooding in low-lying areas is possible if storms linger over one area.

Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com

Prep Tip of the Day: Restock Pet Supplies

Don’t forget your furry family members when preparing for hurricane season:

  • Have a two-week supply of pet food, medications, and water

  • Keep vaccination records and vet contact info in your go-bag

  • Prepare a small pet first-aid kit

  • Label pet carriers clearly and store them where they’re easy to grab

Looking Ahead: Transition Coming

For now, the Atlantic basin is calm. But forecasters continue to watch:

  • Warm SSTs

  • Easing wind shear

  • Gradual return of moisture

  • Potential reversal from Atlantic Niña to Atlantic Niño

All signs point to a more active environment forming as we move into July. Stay alert, stay prepared, and check back tomorrow for your daily hurricane outlook from Cat5Prep.com.

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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 19, 2025: Still Down South – Pacific Watches Erick

The Atlantic remains storm-free, but Hurricane Erick—a powerful Category 4 storm—gains strength in the Eastern Pacific. Learn what this means for the Atlantic basin and why now is the time to prepare.

The Atlantic basin remains quiet today, with no active tropical cyclones and no development expected over the next 7 days, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest 2 AM and 8 AM EDT outlooks nhc.noaa.gov. While the Atlantic sleeps, attention is turning to a powerful system in the Pacific.

Atlantic Basin: Calm Waters, No Alerts

There are still no named storms or areas under tropical monitoring. The graphical and textual 7-day outlooks show zero development chance, meaning the basin continues its quiet stretch early in the season . Early June silence isn’t unusual—but with warm seas in place, conditions could shift quickly.

Satellite view via Windy.com

Pacific Perspective: Erick Now a Category 4

In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Erick has rapidly intensified into an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 storm with 145 mph sustained winds, now only about 70 miles west-southwest of Puerto Ángel, Mexico, heading for landfall.
This storm is expected to bring destructive winds, brutal rainfall (8–16 inches), mudslides, and severe coastal flooding across southern Mexico.


Sea Surface Temperatures: Atlantic Warming Continues

  • Gulf & Western Caribbean: SSTs remain warm at 84–88 °F, maintaining energy supply for potential tropical systems.

  • Main Development Region (MDR): Ocean temperatures are also above normal, setting the stage for Atlantic activity later in the season.

Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com

Atmospheric Conditions: Suppressive Air Masses

Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

  • Wind shear: Still moderate to high across key development areas, limiting near-term storm formation.

  • Saharan Air Layer (SAL): A persistent dust plume continues to suppress early-season activity in the eastern Atlantic.

  • Moisture: Slowly increasing in the Gulf and western Caribbean, helping build storm potential.

Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com


Daily Weather: Standard June Patterns

  • Florida & Southeast U.S.: Afternoon and evening thunderstorms remain widespread but non-tropical.

  • Caribbean & Atlantic: Quiet and storm-free, with no signs of developing systems.

  • Air Quality: Possible haze in Florida due to advancing Saharan dust.

Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com

Florida Forecast (June 19)

  • Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)

  • Humidity: High—typical muggy summer

  • Rain: Scattered PM showers and thunderstorms

  • Visibility: Hazy in some areas

  • Winds: Light, occasional gusts near storm cells

Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com

Prep Tip of the Day: Cross-Basin Awareness

Even without Atlantic storms, Pacific activity underscores a critical point:

  • Monitor systems across basins, not just the Atlantic

  • Understand conditions building globally—warm seas, dust, wind shear shifts

  • Use this calm time to update emergency contacts, test NOAA radios, and finalize supply kits

Looking Ahead: Calm Now, But It Won’t Last

No Atlantic activity is expected this week, but elevated ocean temperatures, decreasing wind shear, and diminishing dust suggest a shift is coming. Hurricane Erick in the Pacific could hint at similar atmospheric boosts affecting the Atlantic soon.

Stay tuned for daily updates from Cat5Prep.com—the next tropical trigger could arrive sooner than you think.

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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 17, 2025: Tropics Remain Quiet Despite Peak Heat

The Atlantic basin remains calm with no tropical storms in sight, despite record ocean heat and widespread Saharan dust. Forecasters continue monitoring subtle environmental shifts that could drive activity later this month.

The Atlantic basin remains clear today, with no active tropical cyclones and no tropical development expected over the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 2 AM EDT outlook. Despite intense heating of sea surfaces, climatic factors are currently suppressing system formation.

Daily Hurricane Update for June 17, 2025 from NOAA and NWS

Atlantic Basin: Calm, But Conditions Are Charged

No tropical cyclones or disturbances are being monitored. The Atlantic basin is experiencing what experts are calling an “unusual lull”—something highlighted recently by the Houston Chronicle, which also noted the ongoing Saharan dust presence suppressing early-season activity.

Satellite view via Windy.com

Sea Surface Temperatures: Fuel Ripe, But Storms Dormant

  • Gulf of America (Mexico) & Western Caribbean: Waters are hovering near 2°F above average, reaching 84–88°F, akin to early June 2024—an impressively warm baseline for storm development.

  • Main Development Region (MDR): Also experiencing above-average SSTs, laying the groundwork for future storm growth, though not yet fueling storms.

Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com

Atmospheric Dynamics: Still Holding Back Storms


Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

  • Wind Shear: Remains moderate to high, hindering storm organization across key regions.

  • Mid-Level Moisture: Slowly increasing, which may support thunderstorm development—but conditions remain insufficient for cyclones.

  • Saharan Dust Layer: A steady plume of Saharan air continues to suppress convection, reinforcing atmospheric stability across the Atlantic.

Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com


Thunderstorm Activity: Local Showers Only

Florida and much of the Southeast will experience typical midday and afternoon thunderstorms driven by summer heat—not tropical systems. The Caribbean and Atlantic remain clear, with no signs of cluster formation or rotation.

Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com

Florida Forecast (Statewide Conditions)

  • Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)

  • Humidity: Rising—classic early-summer humidity

  • Rain: Scattered afternoon storms likely, locally intense but short in duration

  • Visibility & Air Quality: Possible haze from Saharan dust in some southern counties

  • Winds: Light and variable, with stronger gusts near storm cells

Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com

Prep Tip of the Day: Dust Alert and Kit Check

Today’s calm weather can hide hidden risks from dust and heat. Take action:

  • Improve indoor air quality: change HVAC filters and open windows carefully

  • Wear masks or stay indoors if sensitive to dust

  • Check your hurricane supplies and evacuation plans

  • Ensure NOAA Weather Radio and mobile alerts are operational

  • Bookmark trusted sites, like Cat5Prep.com and hurricanes.gov

Looking Ahead: Quiet Doesn't Mean Safe

No tropical development is expected in the next week, but climatological factors suggest the lull is temporary. Warm ocean temperatures and increasing moisture may spark storm formation later in June. Monitor daily updates as conditions evolve.

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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 6, 2025: Quiet Tropics, No Development Expected

June 6, 2025: No named storms or tropical threats in the Atlantic basin today, but signs of change are emerging. Sea surface temperatures continue to climb, and wind shear may weaken in the coming weeks. Now’s the time to review your hurricane prep plan.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season continues with a calm week, as no tropical cyclones or areas of concern are present. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirms no tropical development is expected over the next seven days, marking a quiet yet cautious start to June.

Daily Hurricane Update 6-6-25

Atlantic Basin: Clear Skies for Now

From the 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook issued June 6:

  • No active tropical cyclones

  • No areas of concern

  • No development expected in the next seven days

The NHC’s maps and guidance reflect this assessment, indicating a continued quiet period. Notably, previous offshore coastal disturbances have been dropped and are no longer being tracked.

Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com

Sea Surface Temperatures: Stable But Still Warm

Warm SSTs persist in regions key to hurricane development:

  • Gulf of America (Mexico) & Western Caribbean: Remain seasonally warm (low to mid-80s°F)

  • Main Development Region (MDR): Still trending above normal for early June

While SSTs provide essential fuel, other atmospheric factors currently suppress development.

Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com

Wind Shear & Moisture: Conditions Not Yet Favorable

  • Wind Shear: Moderate across much of the basin, particularly in the western Caribbean and central Atlantic

  • Atmospheric Moisture: Rising gradually, but not yet supportive of storm formation

These conditions reduce the likelihood of tropical development in the immediate future.

Wind Shear 6-6-25

Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

Saharan Air Layer: Suppression in Full Effect

A strong plume of Saharan dust continues to suppress Atlantic convection:

  • Dry air and elevated shear persist across the eastern tropical Atlantic and MDR apnews.com

  • The SAL remains a key barrier to any early-season system development

  • Expect this barrier to weaken later in June

Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust data courtesy of Windy.com

Thunderstorm Activity: Localized, Non-Tropical

  • Florida & Southeastern U.S.: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms—normal for this season

  • Western Caribbean: Isolated, disorganized showers and storms with no rotation

  • Eastern U.S. Coast: No significant organized convection detected

These are routine summer thunderstorms—not tropical systems.

Thunderstorm forecast data courtesy of Windy.com

Florida Forecast: Typical Early Summer Conditions

Expect another classic June day:

  • Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33 °C)

  • Humidity: Moderate to high, creating muggy conditions

  • Rain: Scattered afternoon and evening showers likely

  • Winds: Light and variable

Rainfall forecast data courtesy of Windy.com

Prep Tip of the Day: Emergency Alerts and Insurance

Take advantage of today’s calm to:

  • Confirm your emergency alert subscriptions, including text and email

  • Review your insurance coverage and update policy details if needed

  • Gather digital and physical copies of critical documents

  • Familiarize yourself with evacuation zones in your area

Looking Ahead: Still Calm, But Stay Vigilant

NHC projections show no tropical development through June 13–14, but underlying conditions—particularly warm waters and gradually weakening shear—will become increasingly favorable. The primary barriers are the Saharan dust layer and fluctuating atmospheric moisture.

Remember: hurricanes can form quickly when conditions align. Continue to monitor daily forecasts at Cat5Prep.com.

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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 1, 2025: Opening Day, But All’s Quiet… For Now

June 1 marks the official start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. No storms are currently active, but rising sea surface temperatures and favorable patterns suggest a potentially busy season ahead.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins today, June 1, and while the tropics are currently quiet, forecasters are already eyeing the environmental conditions that could lead to a very active season. For residents in hurricane-prone regions, now is the time to prepare—not relax.

Atlantic Basin: Calm Start to the Season

As of the latest update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), there are no active tropical systems, no areas of concern, and no immediate threats expected over the next seven days.

This quiet opening is not unusual. Early June often sees little activity in the deep tropics. However, this calm is not expected to last. Sea surface temperatures are running well above average, and the atmospheric setup is trending toward conditions favorable for development later this month.

Satellite data courtesy of Windy.com

Sea Surface Temperatures: Running Hot

The Atlantic basin is notably warm for this early in the season, providing more than enough fuel for potential tropical cyclones.

  • Gulf of America (Mexico): 2 to 4°F above normal, with widespread areas exceeding 86°F (30°C)

  • Caribbean Sea: Similar temperature anomalies, especially in the western basin

  • Main Development Region: Continues trending above average

Historically, warmer-than-average waters correlate with more frequent and intense storms.

Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com

ENSO Neutral: La Nada Takes Over

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in a neutral phase. With El Niño in the rearview and La Niña not yet in play, we enter what meteorologists call "La Nada"—a neutral state that often removes inhibiting influences on hurricane formation.

  • Decreased wind shear is expected across the Atlantic basin

  • A neutral ENSO often correlates with average to above-average storm development

  • Other patterns, like the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), may become more influential later in the month

Saharan Air Layer: Dust Still in Play

The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) continues to stream across the Atlantic from Africa, bringing with it dry, dusty air that temporarily suppresses tropical development.

  • Inhibits cloud formation and convection

  • Increases atmospheric stability

  • Introduces vertical wind shear

The SAL typically begins to weaken later in June, removing one of the key atmospheric barriers to tropical development.

Saharan Dust SAL data courtesy of Windy.com

Eastern Pacific: Alvin Weakens

Tropical Storm Alvin, the Eastern Pacific's first named storm of the season, formed earlier this week and is now weakening.

  • Location: Approximately 710 miles south of Baja California

  • Movement: Northwest at 13 mph

  • Maximum Winds: 50 mph, weakening

  • Forecast: Expected to dissipate within 36 hours

Though Alvin poses no threat to land, its formation signals that tropical systems are beginning to stir in the broader region.

Alvin wind accumulation in Eastern Pacific data courtesy of Windy.com

Florida Forecast: Statewide Conditions Typical for June

Across the state of Florida, today's weather reflects classic early summer patterns.

  • North Florida: Highs in the upper 80s, lows in the mid-60s, low humidity, mostly clear skies

  • Central Florida: Highs near 90°F, afternoon humidity and a slight chance of thunderstorms

  • South Florida: Highs in the mid-80s, lows in the upper 70s, muggy with isolated afternoon storms

These are the kinds of conditions that typically precede the onset of more frequent tropical activity in late June and July.

Temperature across Florida data courtesy of Windy.com

Preparation Tips: Start Now, Not Later

With the season now officially underway, take time today to prepare while skies are still clear.

  1. Review your family emergency plan and evacuation zone

  2. Check and restock your hurricane kit

  3. Confirm your insurance coverage and take property photos

  4. Sign up for local emergency alerts and follow trusted forecast sources

  5. Bookmark Cat5Prep.com and the National Hurricane Center

Looking Ahead

Although the season begins on a quiet note, forecasters warn that this calm is likely temporary. Record sea surface temperatures, a neutral ENSO, and easing wind shear all point to increased tropical activity as we move deeper into June.

Stay ready, stay informed, and check back daily for new updates from Cat5Prep.

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