Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 6, 2025: Dexter Weakens Over Open Atlantic; Two Systems Now Under Watch
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
Tropical Storm Dexter continues moving northeast and weakening, while the National Hurricane Center is now monitoring two additional disturbances—one off the Southeast U.S. coast and another tropical wave across the eastern Atlantic—with modest development potential over the coming week.
Atlantic Basin Status
Tropical Storm Dexter is currently well north of Bermuda, sustained winds near 40–45 mph, moving east-northeast at ~13 mph. It's expected to transition to a post-tropical cyclone by mid-week and present no threat to land.
Disturbance near Southeast U.S. coast (“Invest AL95”): Located offshore of Florida, now has a 40% development chance over the next 7 days. While significant intensification is unlikely, it may bring increased rain and marine impacts along the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coastal areas.
Tropical wave near ~30°W off Africa: Moving west-northwest, scattered convection observed. NHC assigns a 50% chance of development within 7 days, as it enters warmer seas and potentially weaker shear zones.
Key Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Gulf and Caribbean waters remain very warm (29–31 °C), offering the thermal fuel necessary for storm development as conditions evolve.
Wind Shear: Moderate to high shear prevails across much of the central Atlantic, limiting organization of existing systems. Models hint that shear may ease near the western MDR later this month.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): A dry, dusty SAL plume still covers much of the eastern and central Atlantic, suppressing mid- to upper-level moisture and inhibiting thunderstorm persistence.
Atmospheric Moisture: Improving across the western basin, especially near the Caribbean, though heavy dry air remains in many parts of the Atlantic.
Gulf & Caribbean Update
No disturbances in the Gulf or Caribbean seas.
High-pressure dominance maintains generally dry conditions, with scattered showers typical of early August.
Expect stable marine conditions without organized tropical activity.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf of America - Sandwich
GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean - Sandwich
Florida Forecast
Temperature & Humidity: Highs near 90°F under humid, muggy conditions.
Rain Chances: 40–50% for afternoon thunderstorms powered by sea breeze activity—not tropical in nature.
Winds: Light and variable inland, becoming southeast near the coast.
No tropical threats are expected to impact Florida today.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
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Though Dexter is offshore, it is generating dangerous rip currents along the U.S. East Coast—from Florida through New England. Stay behavior-aware and heed coastal safety warnings even without landfall forecast.
Outlook
Dexter is weakening but remains watchable over open waters. The disturbance off Florida and the wave from Africa are the two main areas of tropical interest, each with moderate development odds this week. Persistent SAL and shear are still limiting, but conditions may shift toward favorability as August evolves.
TL;DR – August 6 Summary
Dexter weakening, staying over the open Atlantic.
Disturbance near Florida coast: 40% chance of development, may bring rain and marine effects.
Wave off Africa (~30°W): 50% development odds in 7 days.
Warm SSTs support activity, but SAL and wind shear remain inhibitory.
No immediate threats to Florida; hazardous rip currents possible.
Watch conditions as hurricane season builds toward mid‑August.
Stay prepared and stay informed — daily updates available at Cat5Prep.com.
