Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 20, 2025: Tropics Hold Quiet as Atlantic Patterns Begin to Shift

As we close out the third week of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, the basin remains quiet. No named storms or tropical disturbances are being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and no development is expected over the next 7 days. However, behind this calm lies a subtle shift in Atlantic patterns that may influence storm activity in the weeks ahead.

Atlantic Basin: All Clear—for Now

As of the latest NHC update (8 AM EDT, June 20):

• No active tropical cyclones

• No areas of interest

• No tropical development expected through late June

This type of quiet is typical for mid-June, historically a transitional period before activity ramps up in July and peaks from August to October.

Satellite view via Windy.com

Sea Surface Temperatures: Still Hot, Still Fuel

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across much of the Atlantic remain well above normal:

• Gulf of America (Mexico): Mid to upper 80s°F (29–31°C), 2–4°F above average

• Western Caribbean: Similar anomalies, particularly near the Yucatán and Cuba

• Main Development Region (MDR): Still warming gradually, trending toward conditions that could support long-track storms later this season

Warm SSTs are a critical energy source for hurricanes—and the heat is already in place.

Sea Surface Temperature (ECMWF Analysis) via Windy.com

Atmospheric Conditions: Neutral ENSO, but Atlantic Cooling Briefly

While the Pacific remains in an ENSO-neutral phase, a rare “Atlantic Niña” has recently emerged—marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic off the coast of Africa, as seen in the NOAA Coral Reef Watch chart below with a pocket of blue.

• This can temporarily suppress early-season hurricane formation by reducing convection and stabilizing the atmosphere

• However, models indicate that this pattern may reverse in July, shifting into a warmer Atlantic Niño phase, which typically boosts tropical activity

So, while the Atlantic Niña may be limiting development now, forecasters are closely watching the timing of this transition. Safe money would be on a reversal, which could super charge storm breeding.

Overall Scope of Sea Temperature Anomalies

Saharan Air Layer: Still Limiting Tropical Waves

Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

A strong Saharan Air Layer (SAL) remains entrenched across the tropical Atlantic:

• Dry, dusty air suppresses thunderstorm development

• Increases stability and upper-level wind shear

• Common in June, but typically weakens by mid-July

For now, SAL continues to act as a shield against organized tropical development in the Main Development Region.

Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data via Windy.com

Thunderstorm Activity: Mostly Seasonal and Local

While no tropical organization is underway, convection continues to pop up in key regions:

• Florida and Gulf Coast: Afternoon storms due to heat and humidity

• Western Caribbean: Scattered convection, but unorganized

• Eastern Atlantic: A few tropical waves exiting Africa remain weak and embedded in dry air

These thunderstorms are typical for the season and do not currently show signs of tropical development.

Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com

Florida Forecast

• Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33°C)

• Humidity: High

• Afternoon Storms: Scattered area of thunderstorms likely after 2 PM

• Winds: Light and variable, with storm gusts possible

Flooding in low-lying areas is possible if storms linger over one area.

Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com

Prep Tip of the Day: Restock Pet Supplies

Don’t forget your furry family members when preparing for hurricane season:

• Have a two-week supply of pet food, medications, and water

• Keep vaccination records and vet contact info in your go-bag

• Prepare a small pet first-aid kit

• Label pet carriers clearly and store them where they’re easy to grab

Looking Ahead: Transition Coming

For now, the Atlantic basin is calm. But forecasters continue to watch:

• Warm SSTs

• Easing wind shear

• Gradual return of moisture

• Potential reversal from Atlantic Niña to Atlantic Niño

All signs point to a more active environment forming as we move into July. Stay alert, stay prepared, and check back tomorrow for your daily hurricane outlook from Cat5Prep.com.

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