Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 19, 2025: Still Down South – Pacific Watches Erick
The Atlantic remains storm-free, but Hurricane Erick—a powerful Category 4 storm—gains strength in the Eastern Pacific. Learn what this means for the Atlantic basin and why now is the time to prepare.
The Atlantic basin remains quiet today, with no active tropical cyclones and no development expected over the next 7 days, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest 2 AM and 8 AM EDT outlooks nhc.noaa.gov. While the Atlantic sleeps, attention is turning to a powerful system in the Pacific.
Atlantic Basin: Calm Waters, No Alerts
There are still no named storms or areas under tropical monitoring. The graphical and textual 7-day outlooks show zero development chance, meaning the basin continues its quiet stretch early in the season . Early June silence isn’t unusual—but with warm seas in place, conditions could shift quickly.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Pacific Perspective: Erick Now a Category 4
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Erick has rapidly intensified into an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 storm with 145 mph sustained winds, now only about 70 miles west-southwest of Puerto Ángel, Mexico, heading for landfall.
This storm is expected to bring destructive winds, brutal rainfall (8–16 inches), mudslides, and severe coastal flooding across southern Mexico.
Sea Surface Temperatures: Atlantic Warming Continues
Gulf & Western Caribbean: SSTs remain warm at 84–88 °F, maintaining energy supply for potential tropical systems.
Main Development Region (MDR): Ocean temperatures are also above normal, setting the stage for Atlantic activity later in the season.
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Suppressive Air Masses
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind shear: Still moderate to high across key development areas, limiting near-term storm formation.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): A persistent dust plume continues to suppress early-season activity in the eastern Atlantic.
Moisture: Slowly increasing in the Gulf and western Caribbean, helping build storm potential.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Daily Weather: Standard June Patterns
Florida & Southeast U.S.: Afternoon and evening thunderstorms remain widespread but non-tropical.
Caribbean & Atlantic: Quiet and storm-free, with no signs of developing systems.
Air Quality: Possible haze in Florida due to advancing Saharan dust.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast (June 19)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: High—typical muggy summer
Rain: Scattered PM showers and thunderstorms
Visibility: Hazy in some areas
Winds: Light, occasional gusts near storm cells
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Cross-Basin Awareness
Even without Atlantic storms, Pacific activity underscores a critical point:
Monitor systems across basins, not just the Atlantic
Understand conditions building globally—warm seas, dust, wind shear shifts
Use this calm time to update emergency contacts, test NOAA radios, and finalize supply kits
Looking Ahead: Calm Now, But It Won’t Last
No Atlantic activity is expected this week, but elevated ocean temperatures, decreasing wind shear, and diminishing dust suggest a shift is coming. Hurricane Erick in the Pacific could hint at similar atmospheric boosts affecting the Atlantic soon.
Stay tuned for daily updates from Cat5Prep.com—the next tropical trigger could arrive sooner than you think.
*As an Amazon Associate, we earn from qualifying purchases.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 18, 2025: Tropics Stay Quiet as Pacific Storms Steer Focus
The Atlantic remains storm-free on June 18, with no tropical systems expected over the next 7 days. But warming ocean temps and an active Pacific raise long-range concerns.
The Atlantic basin remains calm today, with no active tropical cyclones and no systems being monitored for development in the National Hurricane Center’s latest 2 AM EDT outlook. This early-season quiet continues, but shifting global patterns—warm oceans, dust, and Pacific activity—are fueling a cautious watchfulness.
Atlantic Basin: Clear, But Keep Watching
No Atlantic systems are active, and the seven-day forecast shows no tropical development expected this week . While mid-June calm is common, meteorologists note stronger global volatility due to cross-basin interactions and shifting climate signals.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Pacific Spotlight: Tropical Storm Erick on the Rise
Wind Speed Probability Tropical Storm Erick
All eyes are on the Eastern Pacific, where Tropical Storm Erick is rapidly strengthening—forecast to become the season’s first Pacific hurricane. Though Erick poses no threat to U.S. shores, it demonstrates the early-season dynamism that Atlantic may encounter soon.
Wind Gust Accumulation Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Heat Builds Beneath the Calm
Gulf & Western Caribbean: SSTs remain well above average (84–88 °F), providing potential fuel.
Main Development Region (MDR): Water temperatures are warming and trending warmer than early June norms, laying a foundation for development later in the season.
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Saharan Dust & Atmospheric Inhibitors
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
A large plume of Saharan dust continues to stretch across the Atlantic and into the Caribbean and Southeast U.S., suppressing tropical formation and degrading air quality.
This dust layer, combined with moderate wind shear, continues to inhibit tropical systems.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Summer Rhythm
Florida & Southeast U.S.: Expect standard afternoon thunderstorms, born from daytime heating—not tropical phenomena.
Caribbean & Atlantic: Skies remain clear, with no clusters or organic storms forming.
Air Quality Alert: Sensitive groups should note haze and dust over the Southeast.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast (June 18)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: High, with muggy conditions
Rain: Isolated to scattered afternoon storms
Visibility: Reduced by dust haze in some regions
Winds: Light, stronger near storms
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Monitor Dust and Air Quality
Minimize outdoor exposure if you’re sensitive to dust
Clean or replace filters in HVAC systems
Keep monitoring dust levels through local air-quality alerts
Continue hurricane planning while skies are calm
Looking Ahead: Still Quiet, But Global Trends Are Stirring
No Atlantic storms are expected this week. However:
SSTs remain elevated
Wind shear may ease gradually
Saharan dust may shift or thin
Eastern Pacific activity—like Erick—offers insight into potential future Atlantic behavior
Use this calm period to prepare. Tomorrow could bring the first tropical ripple, so stay connected to Cat5Prep for ongoing updates.
*As an Amazon Associate, we earn from qualifying purchases.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 4, 2025: A Flicker on the Horizon
Though no storms are active, key hurricane ingredients are aligning fast. A developing low near the Southeast U.S. and rising SSTs suggest change is coming.
The fourth day of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season opens with quiet skies—but a subtle shift is underway. For the first time this season, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has flagged a potential area of interest offshore the southeastern United States. While development chances remain low, it’s a reminder that conditions are evolving and the atmosphere is beginning to stir.
Atlantic Basin: A New Watch Zone Emerges
As of this morning’s Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC:
No active tropical cyclones
One area of interest off the Southeastern U.S. coast
No tropical development expected in the next 48 hours
Low (10%) chance of development over the next 7 days
A non-tropical low pressure area is forecast to form near or offshore the Southeast U.S. coast.
If it remains offshore, it may gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while drifting northeastward at 10–15 mph.
— NHC Forecaster Reinhart, June 4, 2025
No storm is expected soon—but it’s the first official mention of potential development this season.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Ready for Action
Warm waters across the Atlantic basin continue to deepen—creating an ideal foundation for future storm formation:
Gulf of Mexico: Running 2–4°F above average, with pockets exceeding 86°F (30°C)
Western Caribbean: SSTs remain high, particularly around Central America and Cuba
Main Development Region (MDR): Trending warmer than normal with gradual warming expected into late June
This warm ocean water is the primary energy source for hurricanes—and it’s already in place.
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear & Moisture: Storm Barriers Continue to Erode
Atmospheric conditions are shifting in a storm-friendly direction:
Wind shear is weakening in key zones like the Gulf and Caribbean
Moisture levels are rising at both low and mid-levels of the atmosphere
Vertical instability is increasing, supporting larger, longer-lasting thunderstorms
This transition increases the likelihood that disorganized storms could become organized systems.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: Still a Barrier, But Fading
A broad plume of Saharan dust remains in the central and eastern Atlantic, offering temporary protection:
Suppresses convection
Inhibits thunderstorm growth
Raises wind shear and dry air intrusion
However, models show this SAL influence weakening by mid-to-late June, removing one of the final natural inhibitors.
Saharan Air Layer data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Early Clues
Even in the absence of tropical storms, convective activity gives us clues about what's forming:
Western Caribbean & Bay of Campeche: Disorganized clusters of thunderstorms show signs of persistent convection
Southeastern U.S. Coast: Isolated convection associated with the developing non-tropical low
While nothing is organizing yet, this pattern often precedes early-season development.
Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Muggy Mornings, Stormy Afternoons
Expect typical summer conditions today across the state:
North Florida: Highs in the upper 80s, mostly sunny, low humidity
Central Florida: Around 90°F, with isolated thunderstorms after 2 PM
South Florida: Mid-80s, high humidity, with a greater risk of scattered PM storms
Afternoon thunderstorms are normal—but they also signal increasing moisture and instability across the region.
Forecast radar data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Snap and Store
With one system on the radar, now’s a good time to check off a simple but essential task:
📸 Take photos of your home, car, and valuables
☁️ Back up those images to the cloud or email them to yourself
🔒 These photos may be critical for insurance documentation after a storm
Also:
Review your hurricane kit and evacuation plan
Sign up for emergency text alerts from local agencies
Bookmark trusted resources like Cat5Prep.com and hurricanes.gov
Looking Ahead: A Season Starting to Stir
It’s still early in the season, but we’re beginning to see motion on the map:
Warm water and shifting winds are laying the groundwork
The Saharan Air Layer is fading
Thunderstorm activity is creeping into critical regions
Today’s 10% chance of development is low—but it may mark the quiet season’s turning point.
We'll continue tracking changes in the Atlantic and bring you updated guidance each day.
Check back tomorrow for your next hurricane update from Cat5Prep.com.
*As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases.