Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 17, 2025: Tropics Remain Quiet Despite Peak Heat
The Atlantic basin remains calm with no tropical storms in sight, despite record ocean heat and widespread Saharan dust. Forecasters continue monitoring subtle environmental shifts that could drive activity later this month.
The Atlantic basin remains clear today, with no active tropical cyclones and no tropical development expected over the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 2 AM EDT outlook. Despite intense heating of sea surfaces, climatic factors are currently suppressing system formation.
Atlantic Basin: Calm, But Conditions Are Charged
No tropical cyclones or disturbances are being monitored. The Atlantic basin is experiencing what experts are calling an “unusual lull”—something highlighted recently by the Houston Chronicle, which also noted the ongoing Saharan dust presence suppressing early-season activity.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Fuel Ripe, But Storms Dormant
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Western Caribbean: Waters are hovering near 2°F above average, reaching 84–88°F, akin to early June 2024—an impressively warm baseline for storm development.
Main Development Region (MDR): Also experiencing above-average SSTs, laying the groundwork for future storm growth, though not yet fueling storms.
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Atmospheric Dynamics: Still Holding Back Storms
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind Shear: Remains moderate to high, hindering storm organization across key regions.
Mid-Level Moisture: Slowly increasing, which may support thunderstorm development—but conditions remain insufficient for cyclones.
Saharan Dust Layer: A steady plume of Saharan air continues to suppress convection, reinforcing atmospheric stability across the Atlantic.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Local Showers Only
Florida and much of the Southeast will experience typical midday and afternoon thunderstorms driven by summer heat—not tropical systems. The Caribbean and Atlantic remain clear, with no signs of cluster formation or rotation.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast (Statewide Conditions)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: Rising—classic early-summer humidity
Rain: Scattered afternoon storms likely, locally intense but short in duration
Visibility & Air Quality: Possible haze from Saharan dust in some southern counties
Winds: Light and variable, with stronger gusts near storm cells
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Dust Alert and Kit Check
Today’s calm weather can hide hidden risks from dust and heat. Take action:
Improve indoor air quality: change HVAC filters and open windows carefully
Wear masks or stay indoors if sensitive to dust
Check your hurricane supplies and evacuation plans
Ensure NOAA Weather Radio and mobile alerts are operational
Bookmark trusted sites, like Cat5Prep.com and hurricanes.gov
Looking Ahead: Quiet Doesn't Mean Safe
No tropical development is expected in the next week, but climatological factors suggest the lull is temporary. Warm ocean temperatures and increasing moisture may spark storm formation later in June. Monitor daily updates as conditions evolve.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 10, 2025: Quiet Continues, But Observers Stay Alert
No storms in sight, but sea surface temperatures continue to rise and wind shear is gradually easing—signs that the quiet start to the 2025 hurricane season may not last.
The tenth day of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season opens with calm skies and no immediate threats. The latest update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirms no active systems and no expected tropical cyclone formation over the next seven days. Early June often starts this way, but with sea surface temperatures climbing and atmospheric factors slowly shifting, vigilance remains important.
Atlantic Basin: No Systems in Sight
No active tropical cyclones
No areas of interest
No development anticipated within 7 days
This outlook aligns with the expected early-season lull, but conditions are steadily changing.
Satellite data courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Warming Trend Continues
Gulf of Mexico & Western Caribbean: Still in the low to mid‑80s °F (around 27–29 °C), ideal for fueling storms when other factors permit
Main Development Region (MDR): Running warmer than average for early June—enough to support development later this month
These warm waters are critical as the season progresses.
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Mixed Signals
Wind Shear: Moderate to high across much of the basin, particularly within the western Caribbean and central Atlantic—limiting today’s storm potential
Moisture: Mid-level moisture appears to be on the rise, which could support future thunderstorm activity
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: A Dry Deterrent
A robust plume of Saharan dust continues to suppress tropical wave development across the eastern Atlantic and MDR
This dry layer is expected to ease by late June, removing one of the key early-season inhibitors
Saharan Air Layer data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Routine, Not Tropical
Florida & Southeastern U.S.: Expect isolated afternoon storms typical for June
Western Caribbean: A few disorganized showers and storms—no rotation or organization evident
Atlantic Ocean: Quiet, with no tropical wave activity currently observed
Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast (Statewide)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: Moderate to high—classic muggy comfort
Rain: Scattered afternoon/evening showers typical of early summer
Winds: Light and variable
Rain data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Check Evacuation Zones
With time on your side:
Confirm your evacuation zone and review the planned evacuation route
Update your family emergency contact lists
Ensure your NOAA weather radio and mobile alert settings are active
Keep local emergency management contacts accessible
Looking Ahead: Still Quiet, But Watch for Change
While no tropical development is expected this week, underlying conditions are subtly shifting:
Warm ocean waters persist
Atmospheric wind shear is forecast to gradually decrease
Moisture levels are on the rise
Saharan dust is weakening, removing suppression barriers
Early hurricane season often starts quietly—but conditions can change fast. Stay tuned to Cat5Prep.com for daily updates.