Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 22, 2025: Tropics Stirring, But Development Remains Gradual
Tropical activity is picking up across the Atlantic, with multiple waves being monitored. While no storms are expected yet, conditions are slowly becoming more favorable for development.
The Atlantic basin remains free of named storms this morning, but the deep tropics are showing increased activity. Multiple tropical waves are marching across the basin—some with disorganized convection, others with early signs of circulation. While none are forecast to develop imminently, the atmospheric stage is being set for a more active period as we approach late July.
Atlantic Basin: Several Waves Under Watch
As of the 8:00 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
No active tropical cyclones
Two tropical waves of interest:
Central Atlantic wave near 45°W: Still disorganized, no longer showing on NOAA Seven-Day TWO , moving westward at 10–15 knots. Scattered convection continues, and models suggest a more favorable environment as it approaches the Caribbean later this week.
Chance of development over 7 days: Low (20%)Far Eastern Atlantic wave near 27°W: Recently emerged off Africa. Some associated convection along its southern flank, but no signs of organization yet.
Both systems are embedded in the broader Monsoon Trough, which is supporting shower and thunderstorm development across the deep tropics.
Sea Surface Temperatures: Favorable and Climbing
Ocean waters remain well above average in key areas:
Gulf of Mexico: 86–90°F (30–32°C) across most of the basin
Western Caribbean: Steady warming, ideal for storm fuel
Main Development Region (MDR): 1–2°C above normal across much of the eastern and central Atlantic
These conditions provide a supportive foundation for any systems that organize over the coming weeks.
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear and Atmospheric Conditions: Mixed Signals
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind shear is moderate across much of the Caribbean and central Atlantic, but is beginning to weaken in pockets—especially south of 20°N.
Moisture levels in the mid and lower atmosphere continue to rise, supporting the recent uptick in convection.
Dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) still lingers across parts of the eastern Atlantic but is beginning to fragment—reducing one of the main inhibitors to development.
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Widespread in the Deep Tropics
Clusters of convection are active:
Along the monsoon trough from 10°N to 15°N between 25°W and 50°W
In the western Caribbean, especially south of Jamaica, where upper-level support is creating isolated thunderstorms
Over Central America and the Yucatán Peninsula, where diurnal heat is triggering inland storms
These are not organized tropical systems—but they reflect a broader shift toward a more favorable convective environment.
Thunderstorm forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Hot, Humid, and Stormy
Expect a classic Florida summer day:
North Florida: Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s°F, scattered PM storms
Central Florida: Around 91°F with heat index nearing 102°F; thunderstorms likely between 2–7 PM
South Florida: Mid-to-upper 80s, muggy, with pockets of heavy rainfall inland
Localized flooding is possible in low-lying areas during heavy downpours.
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Recheck Insurance Coverage
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Stay connected with NOAA weather alerts, hand crank and solar power, flashlight, and AM/FM tuner. A CAT5Prep essential.
Use this quiet window to review your insurance:
Verify your hurricane deductible and coverage limits
Make sure flood insurance is in place—it typically has a 30-day waiting period
Store digital copies of policies in a secure cloud folder
Photograph your home’s exterior and interior for pre-storm documentation
Looking Ahead: No Immediate Threats, But the Tropics Are Heating Up
While no storms are expected in the next 48 hours, the increasing wave activity, warm ocean waters, and weakening SAL suggest the tropics are transitioning into a more active phase. Late July into early August is a known ramp-up period for development.
Stay alert, stay ready, and check back tomorrow for your Cat5Prep.com hurricane update.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 21, 2025: Tropics Active with Waves, But No Imminent Threats
The Atlantic remains cyclone-free, but several tropical waves are moving across the basin. Conditions are gradually becoming more favorable for development as July progresses.
The tropical Atlantic is becoming increasingly active, with multiple tropical waves progressing westward across the basin. While none are expected to develop in the short term, the setup is a reminder that we are entering a more climatologically favorable period for storm formation.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Atlantic Basin Overview: No Cyclones, But Multiple Waves
As of the 8:00 AM EDT update from the National Hurricane Center:
No active tropical cyclones
No systems with high development potential at this time
Disturbance 1: A tropical wave near 40°W is producing scattered convection, but environmental conditions remain only marginally favorable.
Formation chance (7 days): 20%
Movement: West to west-northwest at 10–15 mph
New Wave Introduced: A second tropical wave near 23°W, just offshore of Africa, is showing scattered moderate convection on its southern flank.
Too early to determine development potential, but it will be watched over the coming days.
Monsoon Trough Low: A weak low embedded along the monsoon trough near 08N44W is sparking convection, but not currently organized.
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR – GOES-19 Air Mass Composite – July 21, 2025
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Still Warm
Gulf of Mexico: 86–88°F – well above average
Western Caribbean: 85–87°F – supportive of development
Main Development Region (MDR): 82–84°F and climbing, with warm anomalies persisting
Warm waters throughout the basin provide the necessary energy for storms should other conditions align.
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear and Atmospheric Conditions
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Shear remains moderate across much of the central and eastern Atlantic but is expected to weaken later in the week.
Moisture levels continue rising, particularly in the MDR and Caribbean.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Still present but beginning to thin slightly, particularly west of 40°W.
These factors collectively suggest improving potential for storm development by late July or early August.
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean Outlook
A surface trough remains in the eastern Bay of Campeche, producing scattered thunderstorms.
Light to moderate winds (10–15 kt) dominate much of the Gulf, with seas around 3–5 feet.
Fresh winds (15–20 kt) and higher seas (6–8 ft) continue across parts of the south-central Caribbean.
Expect stronger trades and more convection near the Windward Passage and central Caribbean midweek as a tropical wave enters the region.
Wave height forecast (ECMWF Waves) courtesy of Windy.com
Surface pressure data (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F
Humidity: High
Rain Chances: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms, driven by sea breezes and instability
Winds: Light and variable, turning southeast near the coast
Hazards: Isolated strong storms possible with gusty winds and localized flooding
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Update Insurance and Inventory
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Use this lull to get your disaster documentation in order:
Review your homeowners or renters insurance policy
Document your belongings via photos or video
Store digital backups in the cloud
Know your flood zone and verify your flood insurance coverage
Looking Ahead: Tropics Warming Up
While no tropical cyclone development is expected in the next 7 days, the overall pattern is becoming more favorable. Multiple waves in the deep tropics bear watching, and model guidance hints at potential activity in early August. We'll continue monitoring all waves for signs of organization.
Stay informed, stay prepared, and check back daily for updates from Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 20, 2025: Tropical Wave Parade Signals a Shifting Pattern
Multiple tropical waves are moving across the Atlantic, including a monitored disturbance near 40°W and a new wave off the African coast. While no tropical cyclones are active, conditions are being closely watched for signs of development.
As we close out the third week of July, the Atlantic remains without named storms—but activity is clearly on the upswing. Multiple tropical waves stretch across the basin, including a disturbance in the central Atlantic, a new wave off Africa, and a low near 08N44W. While none are close to development yet, we are seeing textbook signs of a transitioning pattern that could prime the Atlantic for August’s ramp-up.
Atlantic Basin: Watching Several Waves
As of the 8:00 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook and 0600 UTC Surface Analysis:
No active tropical cyclones
One area of interest with low development chances (20%): A tropical wave near 40°W continues to be monitored.
New tropical wave introduced: Near 23°W in the far eastern Atlantic (off Africa), moving westward with convection along its southern flank.
Low pressure near 08N44W embedded in the monsoon trough is helping spark convection.
Disturbance 1, the central Atlantic wave, continues to move westward at 10–15 knots. While still disorganized, it maintains scattered convection and remains under close watch. Other waves in the deep tropics—including the new one off Africa—will be tracked for organization over the coming week.
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR – GOES-19 Air Mass Composite – July 20, 2025
Sea Surface Temperatures: Warm and Welcoming
Ocean heat content remains very favorable:
Gulf of Mexico: 86–89°F (30–32°C)
Western Caribbean: Holding steady at 86°F+
Main Development Region (MDR): Near-to-above normal, especially between 30W and 50W
There is no shortage of storm fuel—the atmosphere just needs to catch up.
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear & Moisture: A Gradual Shift
Wind shear remains moderate in the central and western Atlantic, but is forecast to slowly ease.
Dry air from the Saharan Air Layer continues to impede vertical development of tropical waves, especially in the MDR.
Moisture is increasing around the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the Caribbean, a key precursor for storm organization.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer: Still in Control—for Now
The SAL remains widespread across the eastern and central Atlantic, with effects including:
Dry air entrainment disrupting convective growth
Stronger mid-level winds inhibiting vertical cloud development
This suppression is expected to loosen over the next 7–10 days, coinciding with climatological acceleration.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Monsoon Trough & Convection: Activity Percolating
A monsoon trough stretches from western Africa to near 46°W and supports scattered convection, particularly around 08N44W.
The new wave near 23°W is accompanied by moderate convection—early signs of organization.
Another tropical wave has now moved inland over Central America and is now being monitored in the East Pacific.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Gulf of Mexico: Typical July Pattern, But Shifts Ahead
A surface trough over the Bay of Campeche is causing showers and thunderstorms in the far southwestern Gulf.
Another weak trough across Florida is sparking isolated thunderstorms off the Gulf coast near Naples.
A weak high near the northeast Gulf continues to dominate.
Looking ahead:
Winds could increase by Thursday across the NE Gulf as broad low pressure moves across the southeastern U.S. and possibly into the northern Gulf.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected midweek across the east and north-central Gulf waters.
Surface pressure data (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Caribbean Sea: Breezy and Stormy in the South-Central Basin
Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue in the south-central Caribbean, with seas of 8–11 ft.
Moderate to fresh trades elsewhere with 4–7 ft seas.
Scattered storms noted near Haiti, eastern Cuba, and Panama’s western coast.
A tropical wave expected midweek will bring enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity across the eastern Caribbean and Windward Passage.
Wave height forecast (ECMWF Waves) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Classic Mid-July Conditions
Expect hot and stormy conditions today:
Highs: Around 93°F (34°C)
Humidity: High, with heat index values near 102°F
Storms: Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms—non-tropical but locally strong
Winds: Light and variable
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Start Prepping for August, Not Reacting to It
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With the tropics on the edge of activity, now’s the time to get ahead:
Replenish your hurricane kit (water, food, medicine, power banks)
Make sure your contact list includes out-of-area family
Stay signed up for emergency alerts in your area
Looking Ahead: Calm Now, But the Tropics Are Flexing
Though no storms are imminent, tropical waves are increasingly active, sea temperatures are peaking, and dry air is slowly loosening its grip.
This is the time to watch, prepare, and not underestimate how quickly conditions can change. Stay with Cat5Prep.com for daily, real-time updates you can trust.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 19, 2025: Disturbance in the Deep Tropics Eyes Development
A tropical wave southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands shows a low chance of development as it moves westward. Conditions remain mixed across the Atlantic, but signs of activity are increasing.
The Atlantic Basin remains relatively quiet today, but there’s a new player on the map. A tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic—labeled Disturbance 1—has a low but notable chance of development over the next week. This marks the first sign of deeper tropical activity emerging from the Main Development Region (MDR) as we move closer to peak hurricane season.
Atlantic Basin Overview: One Area to Watch
As of 8:00 AM EDT Saturday, July 19, 2025, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring:
No named tropical cyclones
One disturbance in the central Atlantic
Tropical development chances:
10% over 48 hours
20% over 7 days
Disturbance 1 is a tropical wave located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, interacting with a broad area of low pressure. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized, but marginally favorable conditions could support slow development as the system moves west to west-northwest around 10 mph.
However, by mid-week, environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable, limiting its window for intensification.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Fuel in Place
Waters remain very warm across much of the Atlantic:
Gulf of Mexico: Holding above 86°F (30°C) in many areas
Western Caribbean: High SSTs remain steady
Main Development Region (MDR): Warm enough to support tropical wave development—an important factor as more systems emerge off Africa
These warm waters are key to supporting systems like Disturbance 1.
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear & Moisture: Still Mixed
Wind Shear: Moderate in the eastern Atlantic near Disturbance 1 but lower closer to the Caribbean
Moisture: Rising across the western Atlantic, but dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is still suppressing deeper convection across much of the MDR
While the disturbance has some support for development, these mixed upper-atmospheric conditions could limit growth.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer: Still an Inhibitor
Dry, dusty air continues to stretch across much of the central and eastern Atlantic. It:
Reduces storm cloud organization
Increases atmospheric stability
Weakens convection associated with tropical waves
SAL is expected to persist into early August but may begin to recede gradually.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Isolated and Mostly Local
Florida: Scattered PM thunderstorms expected—typical for this time of year
Gulf & Western Caribbean: Moisture lingers but no signs of tropical organization
Off Africa/Central Atlantic: Activity is tied to Disturbance 1, but convection remains weak
Thunderstorm forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s
Humidity: High
Rain: Isolated to scattered afternoon storms
Winds: Light to moderate easterlies
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Know the Early Signs
With deeper Atlantic activity beginning, now is a good time to refresh your awareness:
Follow NHC's five-day outlooks
Understand what “low chance” really means—it can change fast with heat and time
Review your emergency communication plan and make sure alerts are enabled
Looking Ahead: Watch the MDR
While Disturbance 1 may or may not develop, its emergence from the Cabo Verde region is a signal that the deep tropics are beginning to stir. Expect more waves in the coming weeks as we approach the climatological ramp-up of hurricane season.
Stay informed. Stay ready. Your next real-time update comes tomorrow from Cat5Prep.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 18, 2025: Tropics Quiet, But Gulf Moisture Persists
The Atlantic remains free of tropical storms today, but rising ocean heat and evolving atmospheric patterns point to potential development in the coming weeks. Stay prepared with Cat5Prep's daily hurricane outlook.
The Atlantic basin remains relatively quiet as we enter the weekend, with no active tropical cyclones or immediate threats on the map. However, lingering moisture from a weak low in the Gulf of Mexico continues to impact parts of the Southeast with enhanced rain chances. Meanwhile, environmental signals are gradually shifting toward favorability as we move closer to the climatological ramp-up in late July.
Atlantic Basin: Still Quiet, But Watchful
As of this morning’s update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
No active tropical cyclones
No named systems or advisories
No tropical development expected over the next 7 days
The basin remains in a holding pattern—but that may change in the weeks ahead.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Running Hot
Ocean heat content continues to build across key development zones:
Gulf of Mexico: Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain in the mid-to-upper 80s°F (29–31°C), well above average.
Western Caribbean: Waters continue to warm, supporting deep convection.
Main Development Region (MDR): SSTs between Africa and the Caribbean are approaching thresholds that historically support long-track hurricanes.
These conditions set the stage for rapid intensification when tropical systems do form.
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear and Atmospheric Moisture: Becoming More Conducive
While upper-level wind shear remains moderate in parts of the Caribbean and central Atlantic, it is gradually weakening—especially closer to the Gulf. Atmospheric moisture continues to increase:
Mid-level moisture is supporting thunderstorm development
Reduced shear and rising instability create a more supportive environment for potential tropical waves
This combination is worth monitoring as we approach the latter half of July.
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: A Temporary Shield
Dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) remain active over the eastern Atlantic:
SAL suppresses convection by drying out the lower atmosphere
It also enhances wind shear, limiting vertical storm growth
This protective layer typically weakens in August
While it currently limits tropical wave development off Africa, its influence is expected to wane soon.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Gulf Moisture: Lingering Showers, Low Development Risk
A broad area of low pressure and enhanced moisture remains over the northern Gulf of Mexico:
Development chances remain very low
The system is disorganized, with no surface circulation
Still, heavy rain and localized flooding are possible today along the Gulf Coast, particularly in southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and southeastern Louisiana
This disturbance is more of a rainmaker than a tropical threat but illustrates how even weak lows can impact coastal regions.
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Humid and Storm-Prone
Expect classic July conditions across the state:
North Florida: Highs in the low 90s, partly cloudy, isolated afternoon storms
Central Florida: Around 91°F, muggy, with widespread PM storms
South Florida: Mid-to-upper 80s, very humid, storms possible after 2 PM
Local flooding is possible in poor drainage areas due to repeated rounds of heavy showers.
Thunderstorm forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Review Evacuation Zones
Now is the time to double-check your local evacuation zone and routes:
Know whether you're in a surge or flood-prone area
Identify multiple exit routes in case primary roads are closed
Plan ahead for pets, medication, and transportation
Being familiar with your zone before a storm is one of the best preparedness steps you can take.
Looking Ahead: A Quiet Stretch, But a Shift Is Coming
While the tropics are calm for now, the combination of warming waters, weakening wind shear, and deepening atmospheric moisture signals that a transition to a more active pattern is coming.
Expect activity to increase in late July into early August, as the historical ramp-up in hurricane season begins.
Check back tomorrow for the next update from Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 17, 2025: Gulf Disturbance Brings Rain Threat, Development Chances Remain Low
A weak system in the Gulf of Mexico—Invest 93L—is bringing heavy rain and storms to the Gulf Coast. Tropical development remains unlikely, but flooding risks persist. The rest of the Atlantic basin stays quiet… for now.
The Atlantic basin remains free of named tropical cyclones today, but a weak low-pressure system—Invest 93L—continues to bring rain and thunderstorms along parts of the Gulf of Mexico coast. While the system is unlikely to develop into a named storm, the primary concern is heavy rainfall and flash flooding across coastal regions from Florida to Louisiana. The rest of the basin remains quiet, but conditions are slowly trending toward increased activity.
Atlantic Basin: Quiet But Not Completely Clear
As of this morning’s update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
No active tropical cyclones
One area of interest: Invest 93L
Development odds remain low—about 30% over the next 7 days
No other tropical development expected across the Atlantic basin through the week
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Invest 93L: Soaking System Along the Gulf Coast
A disorganized low-pressure area near the northeastern Gulf continues to bring unsettled weather to parts of the Southeast U.S.:
Currently located offshore of the Florida Panhandle
Moving slowly westward toward the central Gulf Coast
Forecast models suggest inland movement into Louisiana or Mississippi by late Wednesday
Tropical development is unlikely due to land interaction and modest wind shear
Main concern:
Heavy rainfall (3–8 inches)
Localized flash flooding
Strong coastal thunderstorms and elevated rip current risk
Active weather alerts courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Fuel Is in Place
Ocean temperatures remain high enough to support development if conditions align:
Gulf of Mexico: 86–88°F in many areas, well above seasonal norms
Western Caribbean: Warm and primed for mid-to-late season activity
Main Development Region (MDR): Gradually warming but still suppressed by dry air
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear and Atmospheric Conditions: Mixed Signals
Wind shear is moderate in the Gulf, which may continue to prevent storm organization
Atmospheric moisture is elevated, helping to support widespread thunderstorm activity
No organized convection in the MDR due to Saharan dry air
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: Still Suppressing the Tropics
A significant plume of dry, dusty air continues to dominate the central and eastern Atlantic:
Disrupts storm cloud development
Introduces additional wind shear
Suppresses convection from African tropical waves
This layer is expected to weaken gradually in late July.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Gulf Coast Soaker
Florida Panhandle to Louisiana: Strong thunderstorms with heavy rain, especially along I-10 corridor
Central Florida: Scattered PM storms with high humidity and muggy conditions
Western Caribbean: Some convective clusters, but disorganized
Thunderstorm forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Humid, Stormy Conditions Persist
North Florida:
Mid to upper 80s, scattered storms possible
Central Florida:Near 90°F with humid air and afternoon thunderstorms
South Florida:Upper 80s, heavy downpours possible after 2 PM
Localized flooding could occur in urban and low-lying areas.
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Stay Flood-Aware
Even weak systems like Invest 93L can cause dangerous flooding. Today’s tip:
Avoid driving on flooded roads
Review local flood zones and evacuation plans
Elevate valuables if you live in a flood-prone area
Sign up for weather alerts from your local emergency management office
Looking Ahead: A Reminder, Not a Threat
Although Invest 93L isn’t expected to strengthen significantly, it’s a good reminder that even weak systems can cause disruption. As we approach the back half of July, forecasters will continue monitoring the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean, where development tends to increase.
Stay informed. Stay ready. And check back tomorrow for your daily update from Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 16, 2025: Gulf Disturbance Lingers, Tropics Stay Quiet
A weak low in the Gulf of Mexico brings rain and storms to Florida, but no tropical development is expected. Cat5Prep’s daily update covers real-time conditions, SSTs, and what to watch next.
The Atlantic hurricane basin remains quiet in terms of named storms, but attention continues to center on a weak low-pressure system lingering over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although this system remains disorganized and development chances are low, it’s bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms across parts of Florida, the northeastern Gulf, and coastal Georgia.
While no tropical development is expected over the next 7 days, the broader environment is slowly shifting toward favorability, with rising sea surface temperatures, weakening wind shear, and the gradual retreat of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL).
Atlantic Basin Overview
As of the latest NHC update (2:00 PM EDT):
No active tropical cyclones
One disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico (Low development chance)
No tropical formation expected in the next 7 days
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico
A broad area of low pressure continues to meander just west of Florida over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico:
Development chances remain low (0% over 48 hours, 10% over 7 days)
System remains non-tropical and disorganized
Producing periods of heavy rainfall, especially across the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina
Some gusty winds and isolated flooding may occur, especially in areas with poor drainage
This system is expected to drift inland by late Thursday, reducing any tropical potential.
Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
Ocean temperatures remain exceptionally warm, providing high potential energy for storm development once other conditions align:
Gulf of Mexico: 86–89°F (2–4°F above normal)
Western Caribbean: 85–88°F
Main Development Region (MDR): Now reaching 82–84°F across much of the eastern Atlantic
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind Shear: Still elevated in the western Atlantic and Gulf, but beginning to weaken, particularly near Central America and the western Caribbean.
Moisture: Mid-level moisture continues to increase, especially in the Caribbean and southern Gulf.
Saharan Air Layer: A large, dry SAL continues to stretch across the central Atlantic, suppressing storm formation east of the Lesser Antilles, but it's expected to weaken by early August.
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm & Rainfall Activity
Florida & Gulf Coast: Expect locally heavy rain and thunderstorm clusters tied to the Gulf disturbance.
Western Caribbean: Some disorganized convection continues, but nothing tropical at this time.
West Africa: A new tropical wave has emerged, but faces significant dry air and shear over the central Atlantic.
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F
Humidity: High, with a heat index reaching the upper 90s
Rain: 60–70% chance of scattered storms in parts of Florida, especially in the afternoon and evening
Winds: Light southeast winds, with occasional gusts during storms
Prep Tip of the Day: Review Flood Insurance Coverage
Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage. Use this calm window to:
Check your flood zone designation
Review your current policy limits
Confirm your coverage start date (flood insurance usually has a 30-day waiting period)
With warm SSTs and an increasingly favorable atmosphere, inland and coastal flood risk rises as we move deeper into hurricane season.
Looking Ahead: Watchful, Not Worrying
Although July 16 brings no immediate storm threats, all eyes remain on the broader Atlantic:
The ingredients for development are aligning: warm water, weakening shear, and increased moisture.
The next two weeks may see the first organized systems forming in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.
Now is the time to stay informed and finalize preparations—not when a storm is already on the map.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 15, 2025: Gulf System Organizing, Tropics on Alert
A weak low over Florida is drifting into the Gulf of Mexico, producing heavy rain and prompting close monitoring. While development chances remain low, record-warm waters and shifting winds suggest more activity is coming.
The Atlantic remains officially quiet, but eyes are turning toward the Gulf of Mexico as a broad area of low pressure continues to develop. Though not yet a tropical depression, this system is producing heavy rainfall across parts of Florida and may slowly organize over the next few days. Elsewhere, warm sea surface temperatures and improving atmospheric conditions continue to set the stage for increased activity as July progresses.
Atlantic Basin: Watching the Gulf
As of this morning’s update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
No named tropical cyclones
One area of interest: Disturbance near Florida
Development potential: Low over 48 hours (10%), Slightly higher over 7 days (20%)
A broad, weak surface trough stretching across southern Florida is generating scattered storms and heavy rainfall. As it drifts westward into the Gulf of Mexico, slight development is possible—though wind shear and dry air may continue to limit its growth in the near term.
Regardless of tropical classification, this system is expected to bring:
Heavy rainfall across Florida and the Gulf Coast
Localized flash flooding
Coastal thunderstorms and rough surf
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Primed and Warming
Waters across much of the Atlantic basin are running well above average:
Gulf of Mexico: 87–89°F (30–32°C) across much of the basin—ideal for storm formation
Caribbean Sea: Persistently warm, with temperatures near or above 86°F (30°C)
Main Development Region (MDR): Trending well above average for mid-July
This level of ocean heat content supports rapid intensification potential for any system that organizes in the coming weeks.
Sea Surface Temperature (ECMWF Analysis) courtesy of Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Becoming More Favorable
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind Shear: Moderate across the Gulf and Caribbean, but forecast models show a gradual easing through late week
Moisture Levels: Improving, especially in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf
Upper-Level Winds: Starting to show a less hostile pattern over the Gulf and MDR
Overall, the atmospheric profile is trending toward neutral to favorable—a subtle but important change.
Relative Humidity data (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Retreating Slowly
Dry air remains across parts of the eastern Atlantic but is beginning to loosen its grip:
Still suppressing deep convection off the African coast
Expected to retreat westward and weaken through the next 7–10 days
This transition opens the door for tropical waves to survive and organize
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida & Gulf Coast Forecast: Wet and Stormy
The disturbance currently over Florida is impacting much of the region:
Florida Peninsula
Scattered to widespread showers and storms today
Localized flooding possible, especially in urban areas
Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s°F
Northern Gulf Coast (AL/MS/FL Panhandle)
Cloudier skies and increasing storms through tomorrow
Elevated rainfall totals possible
Winds 10–20 mph with gusty thunderstorms
Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Secure Outdoor Items
With storms increasing across the Southeast:
Bring in or secure loose outdoor items like patio furniture, garden tools, and trash bins
Clear storm drains and gutters to reduce urban flooding risk
Monitor flash flood alerts in flood-prone neighborhoods
Looking Ahead: A Pattern Shift Is Coming
Although no named systems are expected in the next few days, the Gulf disturbance is a reminder that even weak systems can cause significant impacts. Sea surface temperatures and weakening wind shear are setting the table for development in the latter half of July.
Stay tuned, stay prepared, and check back daily with Cat5Prep for accurate, actionable updates.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 14, 2025: Gulf Disturbance Signals Season’s Shift
A weak trough near Florida could organize as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico this week. While not yet a named system, heavy rain and flooding may impact Florida and Gulf Coast states. Stay informed and prepared.
The Atlantic basin remains mostly calm, but the tropics are waking up. A trough of low pressure is moving off the Southeast U.S. coast and entering the Gulf of Mexico, where it's now being monitored for potential tropical development later this week.
Atlantic Basin: Early Signs of Activity
No named tropical cyclones currently.
The trough is producing disorganized clouds and showers along the Southeast coast and across Florida.
According to the NHC, this system has about a 30% chance of organizing into a tropical depression or storm over the next seven days, with a 10% chance in 48 hours.
If it develops, it could move west across the Gulf toward Louisiana and Texas by late week.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Foundation: Ocean & Atmosphere Basics
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 2–4°F above average in the Gulf, Caribbean, and Main Development Region—providing the warm fuel needed for development.
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind shear remains moderate-to-strong across much of the basin; however, conditions in the northeastern Gulf may become more favorable for storm organization.
Saharan dust continues to suppress development in the eastern Atlantic, but this trough is well west of that region.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Local Weather: Rain and Thunderstorms Ahead
Florida: Expect multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms today through Wednesday as the trough crosses the peninsula.
Gulf Coast (AL, MS, LA, TX): Showers, thunderstorms, and flooding potential increase by mid-to-late week.
Attention zones: Tampa, Orlando, Dolphins could see over 6″ of rain; Houston and Mobile might experience heavy downpours and gusts.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip: Heavy Rain Trumps Wind Now
With flooding as the primary threat:
Ensure your home’s drainage systems are clear.
Prepare sandbags and supplies if you live in low-lying or flood-prone zones.
Keep flashlight, battery-powered radio, and emergency kits on hand.
Continue monitoring NOAA Weather Radio and local alerts as storms advance.
Looking Ahead: Watch This Week Carefully
As the trough moves into the Gulf, developing into a tropical depression or storm is possible.
Even without full tropical development, heavy rain and localized flooding pose a risk to the Southeast U.S. and Gulf states.
This activity could become the season’s first system to affect U.S. mainland—track it closely over the next 3–7 days.
Stay tuned to Cat5Prep.com for your next daily update—this season may be shifting right before our eyes.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 13, 2025: Tropics Quiet, Gulf Trough Under Watch
No named storms today, but a low-pressure trough drifting toward the Gulf of Mexico could bring rain and potential tropical development later this week.
The Atlantic basin remains calm today, with no active named storms. However, meteorologists are tracking a low-pressure trough emerging off the Southeast U.S. coast, gradually drifting into the Gulf of Mexico. This system has a low (20%) chance of organizing into a subtropical or tropical system later this week .
Atlantic Overview: Quiet But Evolving
As per the 8 AM EDT NHC Tropical Weather Outlook:
No active tropical cyclones across the basin.
The Southeast U.S. trough is expected to push into the Gulf by Tuesday.
Formation chances: <1% in next 48 hours, ~20% over 7 days .
Though not tropical now, its movement may increase rainfall and raise attention if organization begins.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: A Warm Platform
The Gulf of Mexico continues to show SSTs 2–4°F above average, providing a warm environment for storm development later this season.
Caribbean and Main Development Region (MDR) SSTs also remain elevated, keeping hurricane fuel accessible .
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Atmospheric Setup: Suppression in Play
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind shear remains moderately strong across much of the basin, hindering storm development.
Saharan dust is still prevailing over the eastern Atlantic, suppressing early-season storm growth.
Moisture levels are slowly increasing in the Gulf and Southeast U.S., signaling gradual support for convection.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Regional Weather: Rain on the Rise
Expect increased showers and thunderstorms along the Southeast U.S. and Gulf coasts as the trough approaches.
Florida will likely see scattered afternoon storms, typical for July, especially as the trough draws moisture inland.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Be Rainwise
Even without strong winds, heavy rainfall can pose serious hazards:
Track the trough’s movement—it could bring localized flash flooding to Gulf coast areas.
Ensure storm drains and sump pumps are clear and functional.
Keep sandbags and quick barriers ready if you're in low-lying zones.
Test your NOAA Weather Radio and mobile alerts to stay ahead of rainfall warnings.
Looking Ahead: Waters Stay Warm—Storms Could Spark
Although the tropics are peaceful now, the combination of warm ocean temperatures, easing atmospheric inhibitors, and growing seasonal moisture suggest readiness for evolution. The trough may serve as the first spark of Gulf activity, with a watchful eye needed through mid- to late-week.
Stay alert and check back tomorrow for your latest update from Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 9, 2025: Calm Seas Persist Amid Seasonal Build
The Atlantic remains quiet today, with no active storms and no development expected. But record-warm waters and shifting atmospheric patterns suggest that tropical activity could ramp up soon.
Mid-July typically signals more tropical activity—but today, the Atlantic remains unusually quiet. According to the latest NHC updates, no tropical cyclones are present, with no expected development over the next seven days. Despite the current calm, strong indicators suggest the season’s intensity is primed to rise.
Atlantic Basin: All Clear for Now
No active systems in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf
NHC forecast maintains zero development chances across the basin
This lull is rare for July and may end soon as heat and moisture build
Satellite view via Windy.com
Seasonal Outlook: Above-Normal Conditions Ahead
CSU’s July update continues to forecast an above-average season:
~17 named storms, including ~9 hurricanes and ~4 major hurricanes .NOAA similarly predicts 13–19 named storms, with a 60% chance of a busier-than-average season.
Sea Surface Temperatures: High Heat Levels
Atlantic SSTs remain well above normal—2–4°F above average—in the Gulf, Caribbean, and MDR
These elevated temperatures continue to provide plenty of energy for storm formation in the weeks ahead
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Secondary Barriers Easing
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind shear remains moderate-to-high, particularly in the eastern Atlantic—temporarily limiting development
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) and occasional dry mid-level air still suppress convection but are expected to diminish
Moisture is steadily increasing, with abundant humidity projected across storm-prone regions
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
What to Watch Next
Upcoming Infrared and visible satellite loops for signs of organization
Shifts in wind shear over the Gulf and Caribbean
Any African easterly waves gaining moisture and structure
Wind Gust Accumulation Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Early July Trends
Only one named storm (Chantal) has formed so far, but it remained weak and quickly dissipated
History shows many July systems originate in the Gulf, Caribbean, or off the Southeast U.S. coast
Outlook: Active Patterns Brewing
While quiet now, the combination of warm SSTs, moist air, and weakening shear/SAL signals a rising likelihood of Atlantic development
Hurricane Season Peak is still ahead—August through October—but increased vigilance is essential now
Prep Tip of the Day: Check Your Alert Systems
With the season expected to intensify:
Confirm NOAA Weather Radio is operational
Enable emergency alerts on all devices
Update your hurricane kit and evacuation plan
Bookmark Cat5Prep.com and the National Hurricane Center for future updates
The Atlantic remains calm—but the foundation for tropical activity is strengthening daily. Stay alert, stay prepared, and check back tomorrow for your next Cat5Prep.com outlook.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 17, 2025: Tropics Remain Quiet Despite Peak Heat
The Atlantic basin remains calm with no tropical storms in sight, despite record ocean heat and widespread Saharan dust. Forecasters continue monitoring subtle environmental shifts that could drive activity later this month.
The Atlantic basin remains clear today, with no active tropical cyclones and no tropical development expected over the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 2 AM EDT outlook. Despite intense heating of sea surfaces, climatic factors are currently suppressing system formation.
Atlantic Basin: Calm, But Conditions Are Charged
No tropical cyclones or disturbances are being monitored. The Atlantic basin is experiencing what experts are calling an “unusual lull”—something highlighted recently by the Houston Chronicle, which also noted the ongoing Saharan dust presence suppressing early-season activity.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Fuel Ripe, But Storms Dormant
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Western Caribbean: Waters are hovering near 2°F above average, reaching 84–88°F, akin to early June 2024—an impressively warm baseline for storm development.
Main Development Region (MDR): Also experiencing above-average SSTs, laying the groundwork for future storm growth, though not yet fueling storms.
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Atmospheric Dynamics: Still Holding Back Storms
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind Shear: Remains moderate to high, hindering storm organization across key regions.
Mid-Level Moisture: Slowly increasing, which may support thunderstorm development—but conditions remain insufficient for cyclones.
Saharan Dust Layer: A steady plume of Saharan air continues to suppress convection, reinforcing atmospheric stability across the Atlantic.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Local Showers Only
Florida and much of the Southeast will experience typical midday and afternoon thunderstorms driven by summer heat—not tropical systems. The Caribbean and Atlantic remain clear, with no signs of cluster formation or rotation.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast (Statewide Conditions)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: Rising—classic early-summer humidity
Rain: Scattered afternoon storms likely, locally intense but short in duration
Visibility & Air Quality: Possible haze from Saharan dust in some southern counties
Winds: Light and variable, with stronger gusts near storm cells
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Dust Alert and Kit Check
Today’s calm weather can hide hidden risks from dust and heat. Take action:
Improve indoor air quality: change HVAC filters and open windows carefully
Wear masks or stay indoors if sensitive to dust
Check your hurricane supplies and evacuation plans
Ensure NOAA Weather Radio and mobile alerts are operational
Bookmark trusted sites, like Cat5Prep.com and hurricanes.gov
Looking Ahead: Quiet Doesn't Mean Safe
No tropical development is expected in the next week, but climatological factors suggest the lull is temporary. Warm ocean temperatures and increasing moisture may spark storm formation later in June. Monitor daily updates as conditions evolve.
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 16, 2025: Quiet Tropics as Record Heat Builds
Despite calm Atlantic tropics with no systems expected, record-high temperatures surge across the basin—fueling atmospheric changes that could prime conditions for tropical development later this season.
The Atlantic basin remains calm today, with no active tropical cyclones and no areas of concern on the National Hurricane Center’s latest 2 AM EDT outlook. Despite the tranquil skies, beneath the surface trend lines reveal warming seas and evolving atmospherics that could pave the way for an active season.
Atlantic Basin: Clear Skies, No Threats
Tropical formation is not expected for the next 7 days—confirmed in both the graphical and textual 7-day outlooks.
This calm is typical for mid-June, but the stage is setting for future change.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Fueling the Season
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Western Caribbean continue averaging low- to mid-80s °F (27–30 °C), offering ample energy for storm development.
Main Development Region (MDR) is trending warmer than average—an early indicator of readiness for stronger tropical systems.
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Atmospheric Setup: Still Suppressive—For Now
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind shear remains moderate to high across key basins, limiting storm formation.
Mid-level moisture is gradually increasing, especially in Caribbean and Gulf regions—a sign atmospheric support is growing.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) still dominates much of the eastern Atlantic, suppressing convection and serving as a barrier to tropical wave development.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Forecast Conditions: Afternoon Storms Only
Florida & the Southeast U.S. continue seeing afternoon, summer-type thunderstorms—not related to any tropical systems.
Caribbean and Atlantic remain quiet without organized convection.
These storms mark the seasonal norm but are not indicative of tropical threats.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast (Statewide)
Highs: Low to mid‑90s °F (32–34 °C) in Central and South; upper‑80s in North Florida.
Humidity: High—typical early-summer conditions.
Rain: Scattered afternoon and evening showers.
Visibility: Slight haze possible due to lingering dust.
Winds: Light and variable, gusty near storm cells.
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Review and Readiness
This calm window is the best time to:
Verify evacuation routes and local zones.
Ensure NOAA Weather Radio and mobile alerts are active.
Double-check emergency kits, supplies, and documentation.
Stay informed through trusted sites like Cat5Prep.com and hurricanes.gov.
Looking Ahead: Steady Calm, But With Building Potential
Though no storms are expected this week, underlying conditions are subtly shifting:
Sea temperatures remain warm.
Rising moisture levels and decreasing wind shear may favor development.
The Saharan dust layer is weakening, especially in the eastern Atlantic.
Keep monitoring—what’s calm today could transition into tomorrow’s tropical threat.
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 12, 2025: Dusty Skies, Quiet Tropics
The Atlantic basin remains quiet with no tropical activity expected over the next week. Strong Saharan dust suppresses storm development and reduces air quality across Florida, but warming waters and easing wind shear hint at increased hurricane potential later in June.
As we move through the second week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the basin remains quiet. There are no active tropical cyclones, no areas of interest, and no expected development over the next 7 days, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 2 AM EDT outlook. While this calm is typical for early June, forecasters are keeping an eye on evolving conditions that could shift toward tropical development later this month.
Atlantic Basin: Still and Stable
No tropical systems are on the map, and the 7-day outlook remains clear. The Atlantic basin continues its quiet streak, consistent with climatology for early June. However, this calm will not last forever, and underlying signals suggest more favorable conditions could emerge by late June or early July.
Satellite image courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Warm and Ready
Ocean waters across the Atlantic basin are trending warm, offering potential fuel for future storms.
Gulf of America (Mexico): Low to mid-80s°F (28–30°C), above average in many spots.
Western Caribbean: Warm and supportive of tropical development later in the season.
Main Development Region (MDR): Warmer than normal for this time of year, laying the groundwork for long-track systems from Africa.
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Slowly Trending Toward Favorable
While the Atlantic remains quiet, the atmosphere is showing signs of gradual change.
Wind Shear remains moderate to high across parts of the Caribbean and central Atlantic, still limiting storm formation. However, global models suggest a slow reduction in shear over the coming weeks.
Mid-level moisture is increasing across the Caribbean and Gulf—helpful for deep convection and thunderstorms.
These subtle shifts are typical precursors to an uptick in tropical activity as the season matures.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: Strong and Dusty
A massive plume of Saharan dust is stretching across the Atlantic and reaching Florida and the Gulf Coast today.
The dry air and strong upper-level winds associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are suppressing tropical development.
This dust layer is also reducing air quality and visibility in parts of Florida and the Southeast, especially for those with respiratory conditions.
The SAL is expected to remain dominant into mid-to-late June before it begins to weaken.
Dust/SAL data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Mostly Local and Non-Tropical
Convective activity across the Atlantic basin is minimal and disorganized.
Florida: Hazy skies and isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected, but nothing tropical in nature.
Western Caribbean and Off the U.S. East Coast: Scattered showers remain unorganized.
Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Dusty Skies, Humid Air
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33°C)
Skies: Hazy due to Saharan dust
Rain Chances: Scattered PM thunderstorms possible
Air Quality: Reduced in some areas—sensitive groups should take precautions
Winds: Light and variable
Rain data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Protect Your Lungs and Finalize Your Plan
Use the quiet to finalize your hurricane prep, especially while dusty skies dominate:
Limit outdoor activity if you’re sensitive to dust or pollen
Replace or clean air filters in your home and car
Check that your family communication plan and evacuation routes are up to date
Store key websites in your browser bookmarks: hurricanes.gov, Cat5Prep.com
Looking Ahead: The Table Is Being Set
While the tropics are calm today, the pieces are slowly moving into place for increased activity later this month. Warm waters, a gradual easing of wind shear, and rising moisture hint at a more active pattern on the horizon. Stay vigilant, and check back daily for updates.
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 11, 2025: Quiet Tropics Continue Amid Rising Possibilities
he Atlantic basin remains calm on June 11, 2025, with no tropical storms or disturbances expected over the next week. However, warming sea surface temperatures and easing atmospheric barriers hint at increased hurricane activity later this month. Stay prepared with daily updates from Cat5Prep.com.
The twelfth day of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season opens with calm conditions—no tropical storms, depressions, or areas being actively monitored. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), no tropical cyclone formation is expected over the next seven days. The basin remains in an early-season lull, but the combined presence of warm water and easing atmospheric barriers demands continued attention.
Atlantic Basin: Clear Today, But Shifts Are Underway
Active Systems: Zero
Disturbances: None
Tropical Formation Outlook: No development expected through June 18, 2025.
This state of inactivity is consistent with early June climatology. Still, meteorologists point out that subtle environmental shifts are in motion beneath the surface.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: A Growing Foundation
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Western Caribbean: Steady low- to mid‑80s °F (27–29 °C), ideal for fuel if storms form
Main Development Region (MDR): Sea surface temperatures are trending above normal for early June
These warm waters persist as a critical energy reserve for potential fast-moving tropical systems.
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear & Moisture: Gradual Improvements
Wind Shear: Moderate to high across much of the basin, suppressing storm development
Moisture: Midlevel humidity is slowly climbing in the Gulf and Caribbean—supporting the formation of deeper convection
This evolving balance suggests the atmosphere may be priming for tropical cyclones in the coming weeks.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: A Continuing Deterrent
An active plume of Saharan dust covers the central and eastern Atlantic, suppressing convection and reinforcing vertical wind shear
This protective layer is expected to weaken by late June, enabling better conditions for tropical wave development
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Local, Non-Tropical
Florida & Southeast U.S.: Expect isolated afternoon storms—standard for this time of year
Western Caribbean: A few clusters of showers persist but remain disorganized
Central Atlantic: Remains convection-free with no signs of tropical wave development
Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast (Statewide)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: Moderate to high—classic muggy summer conditions
Rain: Scattered midday and afternoon thunderstorms
Winds: Light and steady
Rainfall data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Check NOAA Weather Radio
Take advantage of quiet skies to:
Test your NOAA Weather Radio
Confirm you are signed up for mobile and text alert services
Ensure your emergency gear is functional and accessible
Staying alert now reduces stress later.
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Looking Ahead: Remain Alert, Not Alarmed
While no tropical formations are expected through June 18, the convergence of:
Persisting warm SSTs
Weakening wind shear
And waning Saharan dust
set the stage for increased activity during the latter half of June.
Stay connected to Cat5Prep.com for your daily update and tracking as the tropical season progresses.
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – May 30, 2025: The Calm Before the Surge
Tropical Storm Alvin has formed in the Eastern Pacific, signaling the start of the 2025 season. While the Atlantic remains quiet, activity is brewing in the tropics. See SST, SAL, and EFI maps to track what's coming.
As we approach the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, the Atlantic basin remains tranquil. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports no active tropical systems or significant disturbances across the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico.
However, this period of calm may be short-lived. Environmental conditions—such as record-warm sea surface temperatures and a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase—are aligning to potentially fuel an active hurricane season.
Eastern Pacific Activity: Tropical Storm Alvin Forms
While the Atlantic remains quiet, the Eastern Pacific has seen its first named storm of the 2025 season: Tropical Storm Alvin.
Location: Approximately 565 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula
Movement: Northwest at 12 mph
Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 mph
Forecast: Alvin is expected to strengthen through early Friday but is anticipated to weaken by late Friday as it encounters cooler waters
(Associated Press source)
Although Alvin poses no direct threat to land, its formation indicates that tropical activity is beginning in the Pacific.
Sea Surface Temperatures: Fuel for Future Storms
The Atlantic's sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are notably warm, providing ample energy for potential storm development:
Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea: SSTs are running 2–4°F above average, with some areas exceeding 86°F (30°C)
North Atlantic: Experiencing its third-warmest May on record
These elevated temperatures are conducive to tropical cyclone formation and intensification.
Saharan Dust: A Temporary Inhibitor
The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) continues to transport dry, dusty air across the Atlantic, suppressing tropical development by:
Drying out the mid-level atmosphere
Increasing vertical wind shear
Inhibiting cloud formation
This dust presence is expected to diminish in the coming weeks, potentially allowing for increased tropical activity as the season progresses.
Preparation Tips: Stay Ready
With the Atlantic hurricane season imminent, it's crucial to visit our Prep Blog and:
Review Emergency Plans: Ensure evacuation routes and communication plans are up to date
Check Emergency Kits: Stock up on essentials like water, non-perishable food, medications, and batteries
Stay Informed: Monitor updates from the NHC and local weather services
Looking Ahead
While the Atlantic remains calm for now, the formation of Tropical Storm Alvin in the Pacific underscores the importance of vigilance. As environmental conditions become more favorable, the likelihood of tropical development in the Atlantic increases.
Stay prepared and stay informed.
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