Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 17, 2025: Tropics Remain Quiet Despite Peak Heat
The Atlantic basin remains clear today, with no active tropical cyclones and no tropical development expected over the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 2 AM EDT outlook. Despite intense heating of sea surfaces, climatic factors are currently suppressing system formation.
Atlantic Basin: Calm, But Conditions Are Charged
No tropical cyclones or disturbances are being monitored. The Atlantic basin is experiencing what experts are calling an “unusual lull”—something highlighted recently by the Houston Chronicle, which also noted the ongoing Saharan dust presence suppressing early-season activity.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Fuel Ripe, But Storms Dormant
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Western Caribbean: Waters are hovering near 2°F above average, reaching 84–88°F, akin to early June 2024—an impressively warm baseline for storm development.
Main Development Region (MDR): Also experiencing above-average SSTs, laying the groundwork for future storm growth, though not yet fueling storms.
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Atmospheric Dynamics: Still Holding Back Storms
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind Shear: Remains moderate to high, hindering storm organization across key regions.
Mid-Level Moisture: Slowly increasing, which may support thunderstorm development—but conditions remain insufficient for cyclones.
Saharan Dust Layer: A steady plume of Saharan air continues to suppress convection, reinforcing atmospheric stability across the Atlantic.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Local Showers Only
Florida and much of the Southeast will experience typical midday and afternoon thunderstorms driven by summer heat—not tropical systems. The Caribbean and Atlantic remain clear, with no signs of cluster formation or rotation.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast (Statewide Conditions)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: Rising—classic early-summer humidity
Rain: Scattered afternoon storms likely, locally intense but short in duration
Visibility & Air Quality: Possible haze from Saharan dust in some southern counties
Winds: Light and variable, with stronger gusts near storm cells
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Dust Alert and Kit Check
Today’s calm weather can hide hidden risks from dust and heat. Take action:
Improve indoor air quality: change HVAC filters and open windows carefully
Wear masks or stay indoors if sensitive to dust
Check your hurricane supplies and evacuation plans
Ensure NOAA Weather Radio and mobile alerts are operational
Bookmark trusted sites, like Cat5Prep.com and hurricanes.gov
Looking Ahead: Quiet Doesn't Mean Safe
No tropical development is expected in the next week, but climatological factors suggest the lull is temporary. Warm ocean temperatures and increasing moisture may spark storm formation later in June. Monitor daily updates as conditions evolve.
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