Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 9, 2025: Quiet Tropics with More Waves Brewing
Tropics stay quiet as Invest 96L weakens, but a fresh African wave is gaining attention with a 30% development chance in the next week. Peak season conditions are setting up.
*TLDR Version, Jump Here!
The Atlantic remains calm, but early signs indicate a potential ramp-up in activity. One tropical wave is weakening, while another emerging off Africa is attracting attention due to improving environmental conditions.
Atlantic Basin Overview
Invest AL96 (Central Atlantic):
The tropical wave associated with AL96 has seen its convection collapse in recent days, largely due to dry, Saharan-influenced air. Development chances remain low at 0–2 days, though gradual organization may become possible in the middle of next week as the system moves northwestward .New African Tropical Wave:
A fresh tropical wave just exiting the African coast has been designated an area of interest. The NHC currently assigns a 30% chance of development over the next 7 days. Long-range models depict a perhaps more favorable environment, suggesting potential development beyond a week and possible impacts in the eastern Caribbean around August 16–17.
Possible hurricane development in the Caribbean newest Tropical Wave. Forecast for around August 20, 2025
Key Environmental Conditions
Seasonal Shift Underway:
Climatologically, the Atlantic heads into its most active phase by mid-August. Increased sea surface temperatures, decreasing wind shear, and waning Saharan dust set the stage for heightened storm activity.
Dust & SAL data from Windy.com
Florida & Coastal Outlook
No threats to land are expected over the next 10 days—including Florida and the continental U.S.—according to current tropical storm patterns and long-range models.
Ripple Effects: Though storm formation is uncertain, increased attention should be paid to rip currents and surf conditions as system trajectories evolve.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
TL;DR – August 9 Snapshot
Invest 96L: Diminishing convection now, slight development possible later next week.
African wave: 30% chance of forming in 7 days; more model support for mid- to late-August activity.
Environment: Conditions are trending more favorable—very warm waters, less dust, easing shear.
Threat to U.S.: None imminent, but upward trend in activity expected ahead.
Stay alert. Peak season is building fast. Visit CAT5Prep.com for updates.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 8, 2025: Dexter Is Now Post-Tropical; Invest 96L Gains Strength
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dexter exits the Atlantic, while Invest 96L shows increasing potential for tropical development. Conditions remain favorable with record-warm waters and weakening Saharan dust.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dexter is moving off into the North Atlantic, fully transitioning into an extratropical system. Meanwhile, tropical wave Invest 96L in the central Atlantic now has a high chance of development, and another system further east offers mid-range development potential.
Atlantic Basin Overview
Dexter has become an expanded, post-tropical storm centered near 41.4° N, 50.4° W
—convection is waning and structure is elongated. (NHC advisory)Invest 96L (tropical wave near ~38° W):
Development chances now stand at 60% within 7 days. Recent observations show disorganized showers, but environmental trends suggest improved potential.New wave along ~38° W with an embedded 1011 mb low around 17° N:
Minimal convection currently, but models indicate conditions may become more favorable later this weekend.
—Chance of development: Low in 48 hours, medium in 7 days.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Remain strongly elevated—2–4 °F above average, with localized hotspots reaching 90 °F—offering ample fuel for future storm growth.
Wind Shear: Still moderate to high in the central tropical Atlantic; however, models suggest gradual easing may occur later in the month.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Though dust continues to suppress early-season convection, its influence is weakening, particularly in the western basin.
Dust & SAL data from Windy.com
Gulf & Caribbean Update
No tropical activity present.
A high-pressure ridge maintains calm, dry conditions across both regions, with only typical late-summer showers in coastal zones.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf of America
GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean
Florida Forecast
Highs: Near 90 °F, with sticky, humid air.
Rain: 40–50% chance of afternoon thunderstorms driven by sea breezes.
Winds: Light and variable; no tropical weather expected.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day
With Invest 96L showing increasing organization potential, now is an excellent time to check:
Hurricane supply kits
Evacuation plans
Emergency alert systems across your household
TL;DR – August 8 Snapshot
Dexter has become post-tropical—no land threat.
Invest 96L: 60% chance of development over the next week.
Another eastern wave: Low immediate risk, medium chance in 7 days.
SSTs warm, SAL draining, shear easing—conditions veering toward more activity.
Stay tuned—peak season is ramping up quickly.
For daily updates, stay locked to Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 4, 2025: Tropical Storm Dexter Forms; Two Other Systems Under Watch
Tropical Storm Dexter forms off the East Coast with no land threat. Meanwhile, a tropical wave off Africa and a low near the Southeast U.S. are being monitored as conditions slowly shift toward a more active period.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
Tropical Storm Dexter has developed in the western Atlantic, while two additional systems are being monitored for potential development. Conditions across the basin remain dynamic—with storm formation possible in coming days.
Atlantic Basin Summary
Tropical Storm Dexter: The fourth named storm of the 2025 season formed late Sunday night, now located ~255 miles northwest of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph, and the system is moving east-northeast. It’s expected to remain over open water and become post-tropical by Wednesday with no threat to U.S. land.
Disturbance AL95: A non-tropical low pressure area off the Southeast U.S. coast is being monitored with medium (30%) development chance over 7 days. Movement is east-northeast under weak shear, and formation may remain offshore.
New tropical wave emerging off Africa (~30°W): Forecast to track westward with scattered convection. The formation chance is 50% over 7 days, indicating growing potential for a tropical depression if favorable conditions develop.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
Waters in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and MDR remain warm at 29–31°C (84–88°F)—providing ample energy if atmospheric conditions become supportive.Wind Shear:
Still moderate to high across much of the Atlantic, limiting vertical storm structure. However, shear may relax in the western basin later this month.Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
Persistent dry, dusty air continues to suppress convection, especially over the eastern and central Atlantic. This remains a major inhibiting factor for newly emerging systems.Moisture:
Improving moisture levels seen in the western Caribbean and Gulf, though much of the basin remains too dry for sustained disturbance development.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Region
No tropical systems currently forming.
A dominant high-pressure ridge promotes generally calm, hot conditions across the Gulf and Caribbean.
Scattered showers remain typical for August, with no organized convection tied to tropical disturbances.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf
GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to near 90°F under humid conditions.
Afternoon thunderstorms: 40–50% chance, typically from sea breeze convergence—non-tropical in origin.
Winds: Light and variable inland; southeasterly near the coast.
No tropical storm impacts are expected today.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day
Stay connected to emerging tropical watches and alerts: sign up for NOAA and county-level emergency notifications, test weather radios, and review your communication plans with family or household members.
Looking Ahead
Though Dexter poses no immediate risk to land, the emerging wave and mid-Atlantic trough (AL95) warrant attention. The signal is clear: early August may mark the beginning of a more active period in the tropical Atlantic.
TL;DR – August 4, 2025 Summary
Tropical Storm Dexter forms off the East Coast—staying far offshore and weakest by midweek.
Low pressure (AL95) offshore Southeast U.S. with 30% development chance.
New wave off Africa (~30°W) entering the Atlantic—50% chance of development in 7 days.
SSTs supportive but SAL and shear remain inhibitory.
No threat to Florida; typical summer thunderstorms expected.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 3, 2025: Two Areas Now Under Watch
The Atlantic remains calm with no named storms, but two areas—one off the U.S. coast and another off Africa—are now under watch for potential tropical development. Here's today's scientific hurricane outlook.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
As early August continues, the Atlantic remains without any active tropical cyclones. However, two areas have emerged as brown disturbance watches, as forecasters monitor subtle signs that could impact the Atlantic if conditions shift.
Atlantic Basin Highlights
No active tropical storms in the basin.
Two areas are now under National Hurricane Center scrutiny:
Invest Area AL95: Expected to be a fish storm, it’s a non-tropical low just off the North Carolina coast—producing disorganized thunderstorms. (The orange X on the chart)
➤ Chance of development: Medium (30%) over the next 2–7 days.
➤ Movement: Toward the east-northeast at ~10 mph, expected to stay offshore.Emerging tropical wave off Africa: Near 30°W, forecast to move westward with scattered convection.
➤ Chance of development: Low (30%) within 7 days.
GOES-19 - Sector view: North Atlantic - Sandwich - August 3, 2025
GOES-19 - Sector view: Tropical Atlantic - Sandwich - August 3, 2025
Key Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea remain very warm, with temperatures ranging from 29–31°C (84–88°F). The Main Development Region (MDR) is also running slightly above average. These warm waters provide abundant fuel for tropical development — if other atmospheric factors allow.Wind Shear:
Moderate to high vertical wind shear persists across the central Atlantic, particularly along the latitude band where Disturbance 2 is located. This disrupts the vertical alignment of developing systems and limits the ability of convection to consolidate around a center.Moisture:
Mid-level moisture is gradually increasing across the western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. However, the central Atlantic remains drier overall, especially in areas affected by Saharan dust, limiting deep convection and thunderstorm persistence.Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
A robust SAL is sweeping across the central and eastern Atlantic, characterized by dry, dusty air and suppressed vertical motion. The SAL also contributes to a stable atmosphere, effectively capping thunderstorm development and working against tropical wave organization.
Implication for Disturbance 2:
While ocean temperatures are favorable, the combined influence of high wind shear, limited moisture, and widespread SAL intrusion is expected to stall or inhibit further development of Disturbance 2 as it continues westward across the tropical Atlantic. Until it reaches a more favorable environment, organization remains unlikely.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Region
No disturbances active in the Gulf, and high-pressure conditions support light winds and minimal rain outside normal sea‑breeze showers.
Eastern Caribbean: A wave near 68°W is producing localized storms over Hispaniola and Venezuela but remains disorganized.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf of America - Sandwich - August 3, 2025
GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean - Sandwich - August 3, 2025
Florida Weather Outlook
Highs: Near 90 °F under sticky, humid conditions.
Conditions: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms from sea breeze interactions.
No tropical impacts expected today.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Know Your Warning Signals
Test your alert systems today:
Confirm subscription to NOAA alerts and local county emergency systems.
Test NOAA weather radios and storm tracker apps.
Make sure household members know hurricane communication plans and locations of essential documents.
Outlooking Ahead
Invest Area AL95, while moving away from land, bears watching if it gains tropical characteristics. Meanwhile, the wave off Africa will pass into warmer waters—another early‑August indicator. Meteorological models forecast these systems might strengthen if wind shear declines and dust regresses later this month.
TL;DR – August 3 Hurricane Summary
No storms currently in the Atlantic basin.
AL95 (off North Carolina): 30% chance of development over the next week. (Fish Storm)
African wave near 30°W: 20% chance of development within 7 days.
Factors are currently favoring disorganization.
SSTs are warm and moisture is increasing—conditions may improve in early August.
Immediate risk remains low; now is a good window for storm preparedness.
Stay alert and ready with daily forecasts at Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 2, 2025: Watching Waves, But No Storms Expected
The Atlantic remains calm to start August, with no storms expected this week. A few tropical waves are being monitored, but dry air and wind shear continue to suppress development—for now.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
As we settle into early August, the Atlantic remains quiet—no active tropical systems and no development forecasted over the next seven days. Although several tropical waves continue moving westward, persistent upper-level wind shear and Saharan dust limit their potential for organization.
Atlantic Basin Summary
Latest NHC Tropical Weather Scales:
The 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook confirms no systems expected to form within seven days.
Multiple tropical waves are active:
A wave near 43–50°W with scattered convection.
A new wave moving off Africa near 30°W, gradually tracking westward.
None display organized circulation or development potential at this time.
Satellite imagery provided by Windy.com
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
29–31 °C (84–88 °F) across the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.
MDR temperatures remain slightly above average, offering rising energy for late-season storms.
Wind Shear:
Still moderate to high across much of the basin, inhibiting vertical growth.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
Thick dry air layer continues across most of the MDR, suppressing convection and storm development.
Atmospheric Moisture:
Gradually increasing in the western Atlantic and Caribbean—monitoring for signs of improved convective support.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Region
No disturbances currently monitored.
A dominant high-pressure ridge maintains light winds and calm seas.
Scattered showers along Florida’s west coast remain typical summer moisture—not tropical in origin.
Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F with high humidity.
Rain Chances: 40–50% for scattered afternoon thunderstorms due to seabreeze convergence.
Winds: Light and variable.
No tropical threats expected in Florida today.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Seasonal Outlook
The Atlantic season to date includes three named storms (Andrea, Barry, and Chantal), but lacks any hurricanes—a below-average ACE, echoing early-season inactivity last seen in 2009.
NOAA and CSU continue to forecast above-average hurricane activity overall, with 13–19 named storms and 6–10 hurricanes anticipated this season.
August typically marks the ramp-up of tropical activity, especially across the MDR and Gulf of Mexico, where conditions may become more favorable by mid-month.
Prep Tip of the Day: Verify Your Alert Setup
Now is a good time to:
Confirm you’re registered with local emergency alert systems.
Test NOAA weather radios and app notifications.
Re-check family communication plans and emergency kit locations.
Looking Ahead
While the forecast remains calm now, early August often brings the first major shifts in seasonal activity. Keep tracking tropical waves as they approach warmer waters and potentially lower shear environments.
TL;DR – August 2, 2025 Hurricane Summary
No active storms or developing systems in the Atlantic.
Several tropical waves are present but remain weak and disorganized.
High wind shear and Saharan dust continue to suppress development.
Sea surface temperatures are high and rising.
Historical patterns suggest increased activity may begin in mid‑August.
Stay prepared and stay informed with daily updates from Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 29, 2025: Active Waves, Quiet Forecast
Several tropical waves are moving across the Atlantic, but none show signs of imminent development. Warm waters persist, and August may bring change.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
Though the Atlantic basin remains free of tropical cyclones, several tropical waves are shifting across the ocean—each monitored for organization. Conditions remain broadly unfavorable for development, but the warm ocean and evolving atmospheric patterns suggest potential change in the weeks ahead.
Atlantic Basin: No Cyclones, But Several Waves in Motion
According to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center does not expect any tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days. However, recent Tropical Weather Discussion reveals:
A tropical wave near 19°W (south of 19°N), moving westward at about 10 kt, with scattered convection between 10°N–13°N and east of 23°W.
Another wave near 38°W, south of 18°N, moving slowly (~5 kt), associated with a 1012 mb low. A scatterometer pass noted fresh to strong winds within 120 nm and scattered convection between 5°N–12°N.
None of these features currently exhibit a closed circulation or organization, but their movement into warmer waters bears monitoring.
Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean: Calm Signals, Minimal Development Risk
No disturbances are being tracked in the Gulf at this time.
Surface analyses and satellite imagery show mostly typical trade-wind patterns and minor convection near Central America and the Windward Passage.
A dominant high-pressure ridge maintains light to moderate winds and minimal seas across most of the region.
Environmental Snapshot: Barriers Remain, Fuel Accumulating
Sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean are well above average, delivering ample heat energy for potential development in early August.
The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) continues to suppress convection in the eastern Atlantic. Convection in tropical waves remains shallow and short-lived.
Upper-level wind shear remains moderate to high, especially over the central MDR, limiting vertical storm organization.
SST data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Late-July Heat & Afternoon Storms
Highs across central and south Florida: Near 90–92 °F under humid conditions.
Rain chance: 40–50% with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms fueled by sea-breezes and daytime heating.
Wind conditions: Light and variable inland, becoming east-southeasterly near the coast.
No tropical impacts are anticipated over the next 24 hours.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Keep Monitoring Those Waves
Even when storms don’t form, their precursors still matter:
Review evacuation zones and routes now—not during an emergency.
Check the status of local email lists or alert systems for tropical watches.
Confirm your household has working weather radios and updated contact lists.
Looking Ahead: August May Bring Increased Activity
While development is unlikely in the next 5–7 days, the combination of:
Warm ocean temperatures,
Decreasing wind shear projections, and
Multiple tropical waves entering the MDR
suggests the system is slowly shifting toward a more favorable environment as August begins.
TL;DR
Flood‑ready outlook for July 29, 2025
No tropical cyclones in the basin; no development expected this week.
Two tropical waves showing scattered convection—watching for mid‑Atlantic changes.
Warm Gulf and Caribbean waters offer fuel if shear and dry air ease up.
Florida sees typical summer weather—heat and scattered afternoon storms.
Prep recommendation: finalize hurricane plans, stay informed, remain ready.
For full updates, continue visiting Cat5Prep.com daily.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 28, 2025: Waves Active, Tropics Stable for Now
Tropical waves are stirring across the Atlantic, but no development is expected over the next 7 days. Warm waters and weakening wind shear suggest conditions could shift heading into August.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
As the final days of July unfold, the Atlantic basin remains active with several tropical waves but no immediate threats. While sea surface temperatures and atmospheric moisture continue to support development, upper-level wind shear and dry air are keeping conditions broadly stable—though this pattern may shift as we enter August.
Atlantic Basin: Multiple Waves, No Cyclones (Yet)
As of 8:00 AM EDT from the National Hurricane Center:
No active tropical cyclones
Two tropical waves are under watch:
Tropical Wave 1: Located near 40°W, moving westward at 10–15 kt with scattered convection. Still disorganized but under observation.
Tropical Wave 2: Recently emerged off Africa near 23°W, with convection along its southern flank. It’s embedded in a moist environment and will be monitored for future development.
No development expected over the next 7 days, but long-range models suggest increasing favorability for late next week.
Gulf of Mexico: Moisture Returns, But No Development
A weak surface trough lingers in the Bay of Campeche, producing isolated showers and thunderstorms.
No signs of tropical development at this time.
Expect scattered showers and storms across the eastern and central Gulf through Tuesday, driven by daytime heating and lingering mid-level moisture.
Caribbean Sea: Typical Summer Conditions
Fresh to strong trades continue in the central and southwest Caribbean, particularly off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela.
Some isolated thunderstorms are active near Panama and the Windward Passage.
A tropical wave moving through the eastern Caribbean is enhancing convection, but remains disorganized.
Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR): Slowly Activating
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs):
MDR: 28–29°C (82–84°F), well above climatological norms.
Gulf and Caribbean: 30–31°C (86–88°F), fuel-ready.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Dry air continues to suppress convection over much of the MDR, but signs show it is beginning to weaken, allowing thunderstorm clusters to persist longer.
Wind shear: Still present in the central Atlantic, but trending downward.
SST data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Outlook: Typical Late-July Storms
North Florida: Partly sunny with highs in the upper 80s. Afternoon storms possible.
Central Florida: Hot and humid (highs ~91°F) with scattered PM thunderstorms likely.
South Florida: Muggy with highs in the upper 80s. Thunderstorms expected after 2 PM.
Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Inventory Your Storm Gear
Now is a good time to audit your hurricane kit:
Check expiration dates on food, batteries, and meds.
Reassess your generator fuel supply and run a quick test.
Confirm family members know where the supplies are stored.
Looking Ahead: Eyes on Early August
While July is ending quietly, model ensembles hint at better organization potential in the MDR during the first 7–10 days of August.
A Kelvin wave (a burst of upper-level moisture and instability) may traverse the Atlantic next week, setting the stage for more robust wave activity.
TL;DR – July 28, 2025 Hurricane Snapshot
No active storms or tropical depressions
Two tropical waves being watched, neither near development
Gulf and Caribbean: Moist, unsettled, but not organized
MDR: Warm and slowly transitioning to a more favorable pattern
Florida: Classic summer pattern — hot, humid, and stormy afternoons
Outlook: Low risk this week, but August may bring change
Stay informed at Cat5Prep.com, and use this calm to finalize your preparations.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 19, 2025: Disturbance in the Deep Tropics Eyes Development
A tropical wave southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands shows a low chance of development as it moves westward. Conditions remain mixed across the Atlantic, but signs of activity are increasing.
The Atlantic Basin remains relatively quiet today, but there’s a new player on the map. A tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic—labeled Disturbance 1—has a low but notable chance of development over the next week. This marks the first sign of deeper tropical activity emerging from the Main Development Region (MDR) as we move closer to peak hurricane season.
Atlantic Basin Overview: One Area to Watch
As of 8:00 AM EDT Saturday, July 19, 2025, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring:
No named tropical cyclones
One disturbance in the central Atlantic
Tropical development chances:
10% over 48 hours
20% over 7 days
Disturbance 1 is a tropical wave located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, interacting with a broad area of low pressure. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized, but marginally favorable conditions could support slow development as the system moves west to west-northwest around 10 mph.
However, by mid-week, environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable, limiting its window for intensification.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Fuel in Place
Waters remain very warm across much of the Atlantic:
Gulf of Mexico: Holding above 86°F (30°C) in many areas
Western Caribbean: High SSTs remain steady
Main Development Region (MDR): Warm enough to support tropical wave development—an important factor as more systems emerge off Africa
These warm waters are key to supporting systems like Disturbance 1.
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear & Moisture: Still Mixed
Wind Shear: Moderate in the eastern Atlantic near Disturbance 1 but lower closer to the Caribbean
Moisture: Rising across the western Atlantic, but dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is still suppressing deeper convection across much of the MDR
While the disturbance has some support for development, these mixed upper-atmospheric conditions could limit growth.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer: Still an Inhibitor
Dry, dusty air continues to stretch across much of the central and eastern Atlantic. It:
Reduces storm cloud organization
Increases atmospheric stability
Weakens convection associated with tropical waves
SAL is expected to persist into early August but may begin to recede gradually.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Isolated and Mostly Local
Florida: Scattered PM thunderstorms expected—typical for this time of year
Gulf & Western Caribbean: Moisture lingers but no signs of tropical organization
Off Africa/Central Atlantic: Activity is tied to Disturbance 1, but convection remains weak
Thunderstorm forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s
Humidity: High
Rain: Isolated to scattered afternoon storms
Winds: Light to moderate easterlies
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Know the Early Signs
With deeper Atlantic activity beginning, now is a good time to refresh your awareness:
Follow NHC's five-day outlooks
Understand what “low chance” really means—it can change fast with heat and time
Review your emergency communication plan and make sure alerts are enabled
Looking Ahead: Watch the MDR
While Disturbance 1 may or may not develop, its emergence from the Cabo Verde region is a signal that the deep tropics are beginning to stir. Expect more waves in the coming weeks as we approach the climatological ramp-up of hurricane season.
Stay informed. Stay ready. Your next real-time update comes tomorrow from Cat5Prep.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 16, 2025: Gulf Disturbance Lingers, Tropics Stay Quiet
A weak low in the Gulf of Mexico brings rain and storms to Florida, but no tropical development is expected. Cat5Prep’s daily update covers real-time conditions, SSTs, and what to watch next.
The Atlantic hurricane basin remains quiet in terms of named storms, but attention continues to center on a weak low-pressure system lingering over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although this system remains disorganized and development chances are low, it’s bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms across parts of Florida, the northeastern Gulf, and coastal Georgia.
While no tropical development is expected over the next 7 days, the broader environment is slowly shifting toward favorability, with rising sea surface temperatures, weakening wind shear, and the gradual retreat of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL).
Atlantic Basin Overview
As of the latest NHC update (2:00 PM EDT):
No active tropical cyclones
One disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico (Low development chance)
No tropical formation expected in the next 7 days
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico
A broad area of low pressure continues to meander just west of Florida over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico:
Development chances remain low (0% over 48 hours, 10% over 7 days)
System remains non-tropical and disorganized
Producing periods of heavy rainfall, especially across the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina
Some gusty winds and isolated flooding may occur, especially in areas with poor drainage
This system is expected to drift inland by late Thursday, reducing any tropical potential.
Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
Ocean temperatures remain exceptionally warm, providing high potential energy for storm development once other conditions align:
Gulf of Mexico: 86–89°F (2–4°F above normal)
Western Caribbean: 85–88°F
Main Development Region (MDR): Now reaching 82–84°F across much of the eastern Atlantic
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind Shear: Still elevated in the western Atlantic and Gulf, but beginning to weaken, particularly near Central America and the western Caribbean.
Moisture: Mid-level moisture continues to increase, especially in the Caribbean and southern Gulf.
Saharan Air Layer: A large, dry SAL continues to stretch across the central Atlantic, suppressing storm formation east of the Lesser Antilles, but it's expected to weaken by early August.
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm & Rainfall Activity
Florida & Gulf Coast: Expect locally heavy rain and thunderstorm clusters tied to the Gulf disturbance.
Western Caribbean: Some disorganized convection continues, but nothing tropical at this time.
West Africa: A new tropical wave has emerged, but faces significant dry air and shear over the central Atlantic.
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F
Humidity: High, with a heat index reaching the upper 90s
Rain: 60–70% chance of scattered storms in parts of Florida, especially in the afternoon and evening
Winds: Light southeast winds, with occasional gusts during storms
Prep Tip of the Day: Review Flood Insurance Coverage
Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage. Use this calm window to:
Check your flood zone designation
Review your current policy limits
Confirm your coverage start date (flood insurance usually has a 30-day waiting period)
With warm SSTs and an increasingly favorable atmosphere, inland and coastal flood risk rises as we move deeper into hurricane season.
Looking Ahead: Watchful, Not Worrying
Although July 16 brings no immediate storm threats, all eyes remain on the broader Atlantic:
The ingredients for development are aligning: warm water, weakening shear, and increased moisture.
The next two weeks may see the first organized systems forming in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.
Now is the time to stay informed and finalize preparations—not when a storm is already on the map.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 20, 2025: Tropics Hold Quiet as Atlantic Patterns Begin to Shift
The Atlantic remains calm with no storms expected, but warm waters and shifting atmospheric patterns hint that the quiet may not last. A developing Atlantic Niña could hit a reversal and amplify activity later this season.
As we close out the third week of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, the basin remains quiet. No named storms or tropical disturbances are being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and no development is expected over the next 7 days. However, behind this calm lies a subtle shift in Atlantic patterns that may influence storm activity in the weeks ahead.
Atlantic Basin: All Clear—for Now
As of the latest NHC update (8 AM EDT, June 20):
No active tropical cyclones
No areas of interest
No tropical development expected through late June
This type of quiet is typical for mid-June, historically a transitional period before activity ramps up in July and peaks from August to October.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Still Hot, Still Fuel
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across much of the Atlantic remain well above normal:
Gulf of America (Mexico): Mid to upper 80s°F (29–31°C), 2–4°F above average
Western Caribbean: Similar anomalies, particularly near the Yucatán and Cuba
Main Development Region (MDR): Still warming gradually, trending toward conditions that could support long-track storms later this season
Warm SSTs are a critical energy source for hurricanes—and the heat is already in place.
Sea Surface Temperature (ECMWF Analysis) via Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Neutral ENSO, but Atlantic Cooling Briefly
While the Pacific remains in an ENSO-neutral phase, a rare “Atlantic Niña” has recently emerged—marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic off the coast of Africa, as seen in the NOAA Coral Reef Watch chart below with a pocket of blue.
This can temporarily suppress early-season hurricane formation by reducing convection and stabilizing the atmosphere
However, models indicate that this pattern may reverse in July, shifting into a warmer Atlantic Niño phase, which typically boosts tropical activity
So, while the Atlantic Niña may be limiting development now, forecasters are closely watching the timing of this transition. Safe money would be on a reversal, which could super charge storm breeding.
Overall Scope of Sea Temperature Anomalies
Saharan Air Layer: Still Limiting Tropical Waves
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
A strong Saharan Air Layer (SAL) remains entrenched across the tropical Atlantic:
Dry, dusty air suppresses thunderstorm development
Increases stability and upper-level wind shear
Common in June, but typically weakens by mid-July
For now, SAL continues to act as a shield against organized tropical development in the Main Development Region.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data via Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Mostly Seasonal and Local
While no tropical organization is underway, convection continues to pop up in key regions:
Florida and Gulf Coast: Afternoon storms due to heat and humidity
Western Caribbean: Scattered convection, but unorganized
Eastern Atlantic: A few tropical waves exiting Africa remain weak and embedded in dry air
These thunderstorms are typical for the season and do not currently show signs of tropical development.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33°C)
Humidity: High
Afternoon Storms: Scattered area of thunderstorms likely after 2 PM
Winds: Light and variable, with storm gusts possible
Flooding in low-lying areas is possible if storms linger over one area.
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Restock Pet Supplies
Don’t forget your furry family members when preparing for hurricane season:
Have a two-week supply of pet food, medications, and water
Keep vaccination records and vet contact info in your go-bag
Prepare a small pet first-aid kit
Label pet carriers clearly and store them where they’re easy to grab
Looking Ahead: Transition Coming
For now, the Atlantic basin is calm. But forecasters continue to watch:
Warm SSTs
Easing wind shear
Gradual return of moisture
Potential reversal from Atlantic Niña to Atlantic Niño
All signs point to a more active environment forming as we move into July. Stay alert, stay prepared, and check back tomorrow for your daily hurricane outlook from Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 19, 2025: Still Down South – Pacific Watches Erick
The Atlantic remains storm-free, but Hurricane Erick—a powerful Category 4 storm—gains strength in the Eastern Pacific. Learn what this means for the Atlantic basin and why now is the time to prepare.
The Atlantic basin remains quiet today, with no active tropical cyclones and no development expected over the next 7 days, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest 2 AM and 8 AM EDT outlooks nhc.noaa.gov. While the Atlantic sleeps, attention is turning to a powerful system in the Pacific.
Atlantic Basin: Calm Waters, No Alerts
There are still no named storms or areas under tropical monitoring. The graphical and textual 7-day outlooks show zero development chance, meaning the basin continues its quiet stretch early in the season . Early June silence isn’t unusual—but with warm seas in place, conditions could shift quickly.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Pacific Perspective: Erick Now a Category 4
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Erick has rapidly intensified into an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 storm with 145 mph sustained winds, now only about 70 miles west-southwest of Puerto Ángel, Mexico, heading for landfall.
This storm is expected to bring destructive winds, brutal rainfall (8–16 inches), mudslides, and severe coastal flooding across southern Mexico.
Sea Surface Temperatures: Atlantic Warming Continues
Gulf & Western Caribbean: SSTs remain warm at 84–88 °F, maintaining energy supply for potential tropical systems.
Main Development Region (MDR): Ocean temperatures are also above normal, setting the stage for Atlantic activity later in the season.
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Suppressive Air Masses
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind shear: Still moderate to high across key development areas, limiting near-term storm formation.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): A persistent dust plume continues to suppress early-season activity in the eastern Atlantic.
Moisture: Slowly increasing in the Gulf and western Caribbean, helping build storm potential.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Daily Weather: Standard June Patterns
Florida & Southeast U.S.: Afternoon and evening thunderstorms remain widespread but non-tropical.
Caribbean & Atlantic: Quiet and storm-free, with no signs of developing systems.
Air Quality: Possible haze in Florida due to advancing Saharan dust.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast (June 19)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: High—typical muggy summer
Rain: Scattered PM showers and thunderstorms
Visibility: Hazy in some areas
Winds: Light, occasional gusts near storm cells
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Cross-Basin Awareness
Even without Atlantic storms, Pacific activity underscores a critical point:
Monitor systems across basins, not just the Atlantic
Understand conditions building globally—warm seas, dust, wind shear shifts
Use this calm time to update emergency contacts, test NOAA radios, and finalize supply kits
Looking Ahead: Calm Now, But It Won’t Last
No Atlantic activity is expected this week, but elevated ocean temperatures, decreasing wind shear, and diminishing dust suggest a shift is coming. Hurricane Erick in the Pacific could hint at similar atmospheric boosts affecting the Atlantic soon.
Stay tuned for daily updates from Cat5Prep.com—the next tropical trigger could arrive sooner than you think.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 17, 2025: Tropics Remain Quiet Despite Peak Heat
The Atlantic basin remains calm with no tropical storms in sight, despite record ocean heat and widespread Saharan dust. Forecasters continue monitoring subtle environmental shifts that could drive activity later this month.
The Atlantic basin remains clear today, with no active tropical cyclones and no tropical development expected over the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 2 AM EDT outlook. Despite intense heating of sea surfaces, climatic factors are currently suppressing system formation.
Atlantic Basin: Calm, But Conditions Are Charged
No tropical cyclones or disturbances are being monitored. The Atlantic basin is experiencing what experts are calling an “unusual lull”—something highlighted recently by the Houston Chronicle, which also noted the ongoing Saharan dust presence suppressing early-season activity.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Fuel Ripe, But Storms Dormant
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Western Caribbean: Waters are hovering near 2°F above average, reaching 84–88°F, akin to early June 2024—an impressively warm baseline for storm development.
Main Development Region (MDR): Also experiencing above-average SSTs, laying the groundwork for future storm growth, though not yet fueling storms.
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Atmospheric Dynamics: Still Holding Back Storms
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind Shear: Remains moderate to high, hindering storm organization across key regions.
Mid-Level Moisture: Slowly increasing, which may support thunderstorm development—but conditions remain insufficient for cyclones.
Saharan Dust Layer: A steady plume of Saharan air continues to suppress convection, reinforcing atmospheric stability across the Atlantic.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Local Showers Only
Florida and much of the Southeast will experience typical midday and afternoon thunderstorms driven by summer heat—not tropical systems. The Caribbean and Atlantic remain clear, with no signs of cluster formation or rotation.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast (Statewide Conditions)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: Rising—classic early-summer humidity
Rain: Scattered afternoon storms likely, locally intense but short in duration
Visibility & Air Quality: Possible haze from Saharan dust in some southern counties
Winds: Light and variable, with stronger gusts near storm cells
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Dust Alert and Kit Check
Today’s calm weather can hide hidden risks from dust and heat. Take action:
Improve indoor air quality: change HVAC filters and open windows carefully
Wear masks or stay indoors if sensitive to dust
Check your hurricane supplies and evacuation plans
Ensure NOAA Weather Radio and mobile alerts are operational
Bookmark trusted sites, like Cat5Prep.com and hurricanes.gov
Looking Ahead: Quiet Doesn't Mean Safe
No tropical development is expected in the next week, but climatological factors suggest the lull is temporary. Warm ocean temperatures and increasing moisture may spark storm formation later in June. Monitor daily updates as conditions evolve.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 6, 2025: Quiet Tropics, No Development Expected
June 6, 2025: No named storms or tropical threats in the Atlantic basin today, but signs of change are emerging. Sea surface temperatures continue to climb, and wind shear may weaken in the coming weeks. Now’s the time to review your hurricane prep plan.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season continues with a calm week, as no tropical cyclones or areas of concern are present. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirms no tropical development is expected over the next seven days, marking a quiet yet cautious start to June.
Atlantic Basin: Clear Skies for Now
From the 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook issued June 6:
No active tropical cyclones
No areas of concern
No development expected in the next seven days
The NHC’s maps and guidance reflect this assessment, indicating a continued quiet period. Notably, previous offshore coastal disturbances have been dropped and are no longer being tracked.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Stable But Still Warm
Warm SSTs persist in regions key to hurricane development:
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Western Caribbean: Remain seasonally warm (low to mid-80s°F)
Main Development Region (MDR): Still trending above normal for early June
While SSTs provide essential fuel, other atmospheric factors currently suppress development.
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear & Moisture: Conditions Not Yet Favorable
Wind Shear: Moderate across much of the basin, particularly in the western Caribbean and central Atlantic
Atmospheric Moisture: Rising gradually, but not yet supportive of storm formation
These conditions reduce the likelihood of tropical development in the immediate future.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: Suppression in Full Effect
A strong plume of Saharan dust continues to suppress Atlantic convection:
Dry air and elevated shear persist across the eastern tropical Atlantic and MDR apnews.com
The SAL remains a key barrier to any early-season system development
Expect this barrier to weaken later in June
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Localized, Non-Tropical
Florida & Southeastern U.S.: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms—normal for this season
Western Caribbean: Isolated, disorganized showers and storms with no rotation
Eastern U.S. Coast: No significant organized convection detected
These are routine summer thunderstorms—not tropical systems.
Thunderstorm forecast data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Typical Early Summer Conditions
Expect another classic June day:
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: Moderate to high, creating muggy conditions
Rain: Scattered afternoon and evening showers likely
Winds: Light and variable
Rainfall forecast data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Emergency Alerts and Insurance
Take advantage of today’s calm to:
Confirm your emergency alert subscriptions, including text and email
Review your insurance coverage and update policy details if needed
Gather digital and physical copies of critical documents
Familiarize yourself with evacuation zones in your area
Looking Ahead: Still Calm, But Stay Vigilant
NHC projections show no tropical development through June 13–14, but underlying conditions—particularly warm waters and gradually weakening shear—will become increasingly favorable. The primary barriers are the Saharan dust layer and fluctuating atmospheric moisture.
Remember: hurricanes can form quickly when conditions align. Continue to monitor daily forecasts at Cat5Prep.com.