Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 28, 2025: Waves Active, Tropics Stable for Now
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
As the final days of July unfold, the Atlantic basin remains active with several tropical waves but no immediate threats. While sea surface temperatures and atmospheric moisture continue to support development, upper-level wind shear and dry air are keeping conditions broadly stable—though this pattern may shift as we enter August.
Atlantic Basin: Multiple Waves, No Cyclones (Yet)
As of 8:00 AM EDT from the National Hurricane Center:
No active tropical cyclones
Two tropical waves are under watch:
Tropical Wave 1: Located near 40°W, moving westward at 10–15 kt with scattered convection. Still disorganized but under observation.
Tropical Wave 2: Recently emerged off Africa near 23°W, with convection along its southern flank. It’s embedded in a moist environment and will be monitored for future development.
No development expected over the next 7 days, but long-range models suggest increasing favorability for late next week.
Gulf of Mexico: Moisture Returns, But No Development
A weak surface trough lingers in the Bay of Campeche, producing isolated showers and thunderstorms.
No signs of tropical development at this time.
Expect scattered showers and storms across the eastern and central Gulf through Tuesday, driven by daytime heating and lingering mid-level moisture.
Caribbean Sea: Typical Summer Conditions
Fresh to strong trades continue in the central and southwest Caribbean, particularly off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela.
Some isolated thunderstorms are active near Panama and the Windward Passage.
A tropical wave moving through the eastern Caribbean is enhancing convection, but remains disorganized.
Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR): Slowly Activating
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs):
MDR: 28–29°C (82–84°F), well above climatological norms.
Gulf and Caribbean: 30–31°C (86–88°F), fuel-ready.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Dry air continues to suppress convection over much of the MDR, but signs show it is beginning to weaken, allowing thunderstorm clusters to persist longer.
Wind shear: Still present in the central Atlantic, but trending downward.
SST data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Outlook: Typical Late-July Storms
North Florida: Partly sunny with highs in the upper 80s. Afternoon storms possible.
Central Florida: Hot and humid (highs ~91°F) with scattered PM thunderstorms likely.
South Florida: Muggy with highs in the upper 80s. Thunderstorms expected after 2 PM.
Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Inventory Your Storm Gear
Now is a good time to audit your hurricane kit:
Check expiration dates on food, batteries, and meds.
Reassess your generator fuel supply and run a quick test.
Confirm family members know where the supplies are stored.
Looking Ahead: Eyes on Early August
While July is ending quietly, model ensembles hint at better organization potential in the MDR during the first 7–10 days of August.
A Kelvin wave (a burst of upper-level moisture and instability) may traverse the Atlantic next week, setting the stage for more robust wave activity.
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TL;DR – July 28, 2025 Hurricane Snapshot
No active storms or tropical depressions
Two tropical waves being watched, neither near development
Gulf and Caribbean: Moist, unsettled, but not organized
MDR: Warm and slowly transitioning to a more favorable pattern
Florida: Classic summer pattern — hot, humid, and stormy afternoons
Outlook: Low risk this week, but August may bring change
Stay informed at Cat5Prep.com, and use this calm to finalize your preparations.
