Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 4, 2025: A Flicker on the Horizon
The fourth day of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season opens with quiet skies—but a subtle shift is underway. For the first time this season, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has flagged a potential area of interest offshore the southeastern United States. While development chances remain low, it’s a reminder that conditions are evolving and the atmosphere is beginning to stir.
Atlantic Basin: A New Watch Zone Emerges
As of this morning’s Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC:
No active tropical cyclones
One area of interest off the Southeastern U.S. coast
No tropical development expected in the next 48 hours
Low (10%) chance of development over the next 7 days
A non-tropical low pressure area is forecast to form near or offshore the Southeast U.S. coast.
If it remains offshore, it may gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while drifting northeastward at 10–15 mph.
— NHC Forecaster Reinhart, June 4, 2025
No storm is expected soon—but it’s the first official mention of potential development this season.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Ready for Action
Warm waters across the Atlantic basin continue to deepen—creating an ideal foundation for future storm formation:
Gulf of Mexico: Running 2–4°F above average, with pockets exceeding 86°F (30°C)
Western Caribbean: SSTs remain high, particularly around Central America and Cuba
Main Development Region (MDR): Trending warmer than normal with gradual warming expected into late June
This warm ocean water is the primary energy source for hurricanes—and it’s already in place.
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear & Moisture: Storm Barriers Continue to Erode
Atmospheric conditions are shifting in a storm-friendly direction:
Wind shear is weakening in key zones like the Gulf and Caribbean
Moisture levels are rising at both low and mid-levels of the atmosphere
Vertical instability is increasing, supporting larger, longer-lasting thunderstorms
This transition increases the likelihood that disorganized storms could become organized systems.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: Still a Barrier, But Fading
A broad plume of Saharan dust remains in the central and eastern Atlantic, offering temporary protection:
Suppresses convection
Inhibits thunderstorm growth
Raises wind shear and dry air intrusion
However, models show this SAL influence weakening by mid-to-late June, removing one of the final natural inhibitors.
Saharan Air Layer data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Early Clues
Even in the absence of tropical storms, convective activity gives us clues about what's forming:
Western Caribbean & Bay of Campeche: Disorganized clusters of thunderstorms show signs of persistent convection
Southeastern U.S. Coast: Isolated convection associated with the developing non-tropical low
While nothing is organizing yet, this pattern often precedes early-season development.
Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Muggy Mornings, Stormy Afternoons
Expect typical summer conditions today across the state:
North Florida: Highs in the upper 80s, mostly sunny, low humidity
Central Florida: Around 90°F, with isolated thunderstorms after 2 PM
South Florida: Mid-80s, high humidity, with a greater risk of scattered PM storms
Afternoon thunderstorms are normal—but they also signal increasing moisture and instability across the region.
Forecast radar data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Snap and Store
With one system on the radar, now’s a good time to check off a simple but essential task:
📸 Take photos of your home, car, and valuables
☁️ Back up those images to the cloud or email them to yourself
🔒 These photos may be critical for insurance documentation after a storm
Also:
Review your hurricane kit and evacuation plan
Sign up for emergency text alerts from local agencies
Bookmark trusted resources like Cat5Prep.com and hurricanes.gov
Looking Ahead: A Season Starting to Stir
It’s still early in the season, but we’re beginning to see motion on the map:
Warm water and shifting winds are laying the groundwork
The Saharan Air Layer is fading
Thunderstorm activity is creeping into critical regions
Today’s 10% chance of development is low—but it may mark the quiet season’s turning point.
We'll continue tracking changes in the Atlantic and bring you updated guidance each day.
Check back tomorrow for your next hurricane update from Cat5Prep.com.
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