Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 17, 2025: Tropics Remain Quiet Despite Peak Heat
The Atlantic basin remains calm with no tropical storms in sight, despite record ocean heat and widespread Saharan dust. Forecasters continue monitoring subtle environmental shifts that could drive activity later this month.
The Atlantic basin remains clear today, with no active tropical cyclones and no tropical development expected over the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 2 AM EDT outlook. Despite intense heating of sea surfaces, climatic factors are currently suppressing system formation.
Atlantic Basin: Calm, But Conditions Are Charged
No tropical cyclones or disturbances are being monitored. The Atlantic basin is experiencing what experts are calling an “unusual lull”—something highlighted recently by the Houston Chronicle, which also noted the ongoing Saharan dust presence suppressing early-season activity.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Fuel Ripe, But Storms Dormant
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Western Caribbean: Waters are hovering near 2°F above average, reaching 84–88°F, akin to early June 2024—an impressively warm baseline for storm development.
Main Development Region (MDR): Also experiencing above-average SSTs, laying the groundwork for future storm growth, though not yet fueling storms.
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Atmospheric Dynamics: Still Holding Back Storms
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind Shear: Remains moderate to high, hindering storm organization across key regions.
Mid-Level Moisture: Slowly increasing, which may support thunderstorm development—but conditions remain insufficient for cyclones.
Saharan Dust Layer: A steady plume of Saharan air continues to suppress convection, reinforcing atmospheric stability across the Atlantic.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Local Showers Only
Florida and much of the Southeast will experience typical midday and afternoon thunderstorms driven by summer heat—not tropical systems. The Caribbean and Atlantic remain clear, with no signs of cluster formation or rotation.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast (Statewide Conditions)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: Rising—classic early-summer humidity
Rain: Scattered afternoon storms likely, locally intense but short in duration
Visibility & Air Quality: Possible haze from Saharan dust in some southern counties
Winds: Light and variable, with stronger gusts near storm cells
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Dust Alert and Kit Check
Today’s calm weather can hide hidden risks from dust and heat. Take action:
Improve indoor air quality: change HVAC filters and open windows carefully
Wear masks or stay indoors if sensitive to dust
Check your hurricane supplies and evacuation plans
Ensure NOAA Weather Radio and mobile alerts are operational
Bookmark trusted sites, like Cat5Prep.com and hurricanes.gov
Looking Ahead: Quiet Doesn't Mean Safe
No tropical development is expected in the next week, but climatological factors suggest the lull is temporary. Warm ocean temperatures and increasing moisture may spark storm formation later in June. Monitor daily updates as conditions evolve.
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 4, 2025: A Flicker on the Horizon
Though no storms are active, key hurricane ingredients are aligning fast. A developing low near the Southeast U.S. and rising SSTs suggest change is coming.
The fourth day of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season opens with quiet skies—but a subtle shift is underway. For the first time this season, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has flagged a potential area of interest offshore the southeastern United States. While development chances remain low, it’s a reminder that conditions are evolving and the atmosphere is beginning to stir.
Atlantic Basin: A New Watch Zone Emerges
As of this morning’s Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC:
No active tropical cyclones
One area of interest off the Southeastern U.S. coast
No tropical development expected in the next 48 hours
Low (10%) chance of development over the next 7 days
A non-tropical low pressure area is forecast to form near or offshore the Southeast U.S. coast.
If it remains offshore, it may gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while drifting northeastward at 10–15 mph.
— NHC Forecaster Reinhart, June 4, 2025
No storm is expected soon—but it’s the first official mention of potential development this season.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Ready for Action
Warm waters across the Atlantic basin continue to deepen—creating an ideal foundation for future storm formation:
Gulf of Mexico: Running 2–4°F above average, with pockets exceeding 86°F (30°C)
Western Caribbean: SSTs remain high, particularly around Central America and Cuba
Main Development Region (MDR): Trending warmer than normal with gradual warming expected into late June
This warm ocean water is the primary energy source for hurricanes—and it’s already in place.
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear & Moisture: Storm Barriers Continue to Erode
Atmospheric conditions are shifting in a storm-friendly direction:
Wind shear is weakening in key zones like the Gulf and Caribbean
Moisture levels are rising at both low and mid-levels of the atmosphere
Vertical instability is increasing, supporting larger, longer-lasting thunderstorms
This transition increases the likelihood that disorganized storms could become organized systems.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: Still a Barrier, But Fading
A broad plume of Saharan dust remains in the central and eastern Atlantic, offering temporary protection:
Suppresses convection
Inhibits thunderstorm growth
Raises wind shear and dry air intrusion
However, models show this SAL influence weakening by mid-to-late June, removing one of the final natural inhibitors.
Saharan Air Layer data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Early Clues
Even in the absence of tropical storms, convective activity gives us clues about what's forming:
Western Caribbean & Bay of Campeche: Disorganized clusters of thunderstorms show signs of persistent convection
Southeastern U.S. Coast: Isolated convection associated with the developing non-tropical low
While nothing is organizing yet, this pattern often precedes early-season development.
Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Muggy Mornings, Stormy Afternoons
Expect typical summer conditions today across the state:
North Florida: Highs in the upper 80s, mostly sunny, low humidity
Central Florida: Around 90°F, with isolated thunderstorms after 2 PM
South Florida: Mid-80s, high humidity, with a greater risk of scattered PM storms
Afternoon thunderstorms are normal—but they also signal increasing moisture and instability across the region.
Forecast radar data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Snap and Store
With one system on the radar, now’s a good time to check off a simple but essential task:
📸 Take photos of your home, car, and valuables
☁️ Back up those images to the cloud or email them to yourself
🔒 These photos may be critical for insurance documentation after a storm
Also:
Review your hurricane kit and evacuation plan
Sign up for emergency text alerts from local agencies
Bookmark trusted resources like Cat5Prep.com and hurricanes.gov
Looking Ahead: A Season Starting to Stir
It’s still early in the season, but we’re beginning to see motion on the map:
Warm water and shifting winds are laying the groundwork
The Saharan Air Layer is fading
Thunderstorm activity is creeping into critical regions
Today’s 10% chance of development is low—but it may mark the quiet season’s turning point.
We'll continue tracking changes in the Atlantic and bring you updated guidance each day.
Check back tomorrow for your next hurricane update from Cat5Prep.com.
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