Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 6, 2025: Quiet Tropics, No Development Expected

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season continues with a calm week, as no tropical cyclones or areas of concern are present. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirms no tropical development is expected over the next seven days, marking a quiet yet cautious start to June.

Atlantic Basin: Clear Skies for Now

From the 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook issued June 6:

• No active tropical cyclones

• No areas of concern

• No development expected in the next seven days

The NHC’s maps and guidance reflect this assessment, indicating a continued quiet period. Notably, previous offshore coastal disturbances have been dropped and are no longer being tracked.

Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com

Sea Surface Temperatures: Stable But Still Warm

Warm SSTs persist in regions key to hurricane development:

• Gulf of America (Mexico) & Western Caribbean: Remain seasonally warm (low to mid-80s°F)

• Main Development Region (MDR): Still trending above normal for early June

While SSTs provide essential fuel, other atmospheric factors currently suppress development.

Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com

Wind Shear & Moisture: Conditions Not Yet Favorable

• Wind Shear: Moderate across much of the basin, particularly in the western Caribbean and central Atlantic

• Atmospheric Moisture: Rising gradually, but not yet supportive of storm formation

These conditions reduce the likelihood of tropical development in the immediate future.

Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

Saharan Air Layer: Suppression in Full Effect

A strong plume of Saharan dust continues to suppress Atlantic convection:

• Dry air and elevated shear persist across the eastern tropical Atlantic and MDR apnews.com

• The SAL remains a key barrier to any early-season system development

• Expect this barrier to weaken later in June

Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust data courtesy of Windy.com

Thunderstorm Activity: Localized, Non-Tropical

• Florida & Southeastern U.S.: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms—normal for this season

• Western Caribbean: Isolated, disorganized showers and storms with no rotation

• Eastern U.S. Coast: No significant organized convection detected

These are routine summer thunderstorms—not tropical systems.

Thunderstorm forecast data courtesy of Windy.com

Florida Forecast: Typical Early Summer Conditions

Expect another classic June day:

• Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33 °C)

• Humidity: Moderate to high, creating muggy conditions

• Rain: Scattered afternoon and evening showers likely

• Winds: Light and variable

Rainfall forecast data courtesy of Windy.com

Prep Tip of the Day: Emergency Alerts and Insurance

Take advantage of today’s calm to:

• Confirm your emergency alert subscriptions, including text and email

• Review your insurance coverage and update policy details if needed

• Gather digital and physical copies of critical documents

• Familiarize yourself with evacuation zones in your area

Looking Ahead: Still Calm, But Stay Vigilant

NHC projections show no tropical development through June 13–14, but underlying conditions—particularly warm waters and gradually weakening shear—will become increasingly favorable. The primary barriers are the Saharan dust layer and fluctuating atmospheric moisture.

Remember: hurricanes can form quickly when conditions align. Continue to monitor daily forecasts at Cat5Prep.com.

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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 4, 2025: A Flicker on the Horizon

The fourth day of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season opens with quiet skies—but a subtle shift is underway. For the first time this season, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has flagged a potential area of interest offshore the southeastern United States. While development chances remain low, it’s a reminder that conditions are evolving and the atmosphere is beginning to stir.

Atlantic Basin: A New Watch Zone Emerges

As of this morning’s Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC:

• No active tropical cyclones

• One area of interest off the Southeastern U.S. coast

• No tropical development expected in the next 48 hours

• Low (10%) chance of development over the next 7 days

A non-tropical low pressure area is forecast to form near or offshore the Southeast U.S. coast.

If it remains offshore, it may gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while drifting northeastward at 10–15 mph.

— NHC Forecaster Reinhart, June 4, 2025

No storm is expected soon—but it’s the first official mention of potential development this season.

Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com

Sea Surface Temperatures: Ready for Action

Warm waters across the Atlantic basin continue to deepen—creating an ideal foundation for future storm formation:

• Gulf of Mexico: Running 2–4°F above average, with pockets exceeding 86°F (30°C)

• Western Caribbean: SSTs remain high, particularly around Central America and Cuba

• Main Development Region (MDR): Trending warmer than normal with gradual warming expected into late June

This warm ocean water is the primary energy source for hurricanes—and it’s already in place.

Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com

Wind Shear & Moisture: Storm Barriers Continue to Erode

Atmospheric conditions are shifting in a storm-friendly direction:

• Wind shear is weakening in key zones like the Gulf and Caribbean

• Moisture levels are rising at both low and mid-levels of the atmosphere

• Vertical instability is increasing, supporting larger, longer-lasting thunderstorms

This transition increases the likelihood that disorganized storms could become organized systems.

Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

Saharan Air Layer: Still a Barrier, But Fading

A broad plume of Saharan dust remains in the central and eastern Atlantic, offering temporary protection:

• Suppresses convection

• Inhibits thunderstorm growth

• Raises wind shear and dry air intrusion

However, models show this SAL influence weakening by mid-to-late June, removing one of the final natural inhibitors.

Saharan Air Layer data courtesy of Windy.com

Thunderstorm Activity: Early Clues

Even in the absence of tropical storms, convective activity gives us clues about what's forming:

• Western Caribbean & Bay of Campeche: Disorganized clusters of thunderstorms show signs of persistent convection

• Southeastern U.S. Coast: Isolated convection associated with the developing non-tropical low

While nothing is organizing yet, this pattern often precedes early-season development.

Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com

Florida Forecast: Muggy Mornings, Stormy Afternoons

Expect typical summer conditions today across the state:

• North Florida: Highs in the upper 80s, mostly sunny, low humidity

• Central Florida: Around 90°F, with isolated thunderstorms after 2 PM

• South Florida: Mid-80s, high humidity, with a greater risk of scattered PM storms

Afternoon thunderstorms are normal—but they also signal increasing moisture and instability across the region.

Forecast radar data courtesy of Windy.com

Prep Tip of the Day: Snap and Store

With one system on the radar, now’s a good time to check off a simple but essential task:

• 📸 Take photos of your home, car, and valuables

• ☁️ Back up those images to the cloud or email them to yourself

• 🔒 These photos may be critical for insurance documentation after a storm

Also:

• Review your hurricane kit and evacuation plan

• Sign up for emergency text alerts from local agencies

• Bookmark trusted resources like Cat5Prep.com and hurricanes.gov

Looking Ahead: A Season Starting to Stir

It’s still early in the season, but we’re beginning to see motion on the map:

• Warm water and shifting winds are laying the groundwork

• The Saharan Air Layer is fading

• Thunderstorm activity is creeping into critical regions

Today’s 10% chance of development is low—but it may mark the quiet season’s turning point.

We'll continue tracking changes in the Atlantic and bring you updated guidance each day.

Check back tomorrow for your next hurricane update from Cat5Prep.com.

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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 3, 2025: Conditions Ripening Beneath the Calm

The third day of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season begins much like the last—quiet skies and no named systems. But meteorologists are watching closely. While there are no storms on the map, the ingredients for tropical cyclone formation are slowly assembling. Sea surface temperatures are rising, atmospheric inhibitors are weakening, and thunderstorm activity is beginning to build in key regions. It’s still early—but don’t get too comfortable.

Atlantic Basin: New Area of Interest and Overall Quiet

As of yesterday afternoon’s update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a new area of low pressure has been identified just off the southeastern United States coast:

• A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form near or offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast in the next couple of days.

• If it remains offshore, it could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics later this week while tracking northeastward at 10 to 15 mph.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (near 0%)

• Formation chance through 7 days: Low (10%)

While development is currently unlikely, this is the first flagged area of interest in the Atlantic this season — a reminder that conditions are slowly trending more favorable. Models will continue to be monitored for any shifts in track or intensity.

At this time, no direct impacts are expected for the U.S. mainland, but boaters and beachgoers along the Southeast Coast should monitor local marine conditions later this week.

Otherwise, the basin remains quiet:

• No active tropical cyclones

• No other areas of interest

• No tropical development expected in the next 7 days

A quiet start like this is typical for early June but it’s not a signal to let your guard down. The long-range outlook hints at increasing activity potential by mid-to-late June, especially in the western Caribbean and Gulf of America (Mexico).

Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com

Sea Surface Temperatures: Storm Fuel Is Already in Place

Warm waters are the engine that powers hurricanes, and the Atlantic is already running hot:

• Gulf of America (Mexico): 2–4°F above average, with widespread 86°F+ (30°C) readings

• Western Caribbean: Elevated SSTs continue to build near Central America and Cuba

• Main Development Region (MDR): Trending warmer than normal, with the potential to support long-track storms later this season

These above-average temperatures are primed to support rapid intensification once storm systems begin to form.

Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com

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Wind Shear & Moisture: A Shifting Balance

Wind shear—the atmospheric force that disrupts hurricane development—is weakening, especially in the Caribbean and Gulf. At the same time, moisture levels in the lower and mid-atmosphere are rising.

This combination supports stronger thunderstorms and vertical cloud development—key precursors for tropical formation.

Wind-shear Map Image Courtesy of : https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

Saharan Air Layer: Dust Is Holding Steady—for Now

A broad stretch of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is still active across the central and eastern Atlantic:

• Dry, stable air disrupts tropical wave development

• Increased wind shear limits vertical convection

• Dust particles reduce storm cloud organization

While the SAL continues to offer some protection in the eastern Atlantic, it’s expected to weaken later this month—removing one of the last early-season barriers to storm growth.

Satellite dust data courtesy of Windy.com

Thunderstorm Activity: Not Just Summer Weather

While today’s thunderstorms aren’t tropical, their growing presence is important:

• Western Caribbean: Clusters of convection are forming, though currently disorganized

• Southeastern U.S. & Gulf Coast: Expect afternoon storms, fueled by heat and humidity

These storm systems help prime the atmosphere for eventual tropical development and are often the earliest signs of areas of interest.

Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com

Florida Forecast: A Classic, Stormy Summer Day

Expect another typical early June day across the Sunshine State:

• North Florida: Upper 80s, low humidity, mostly clear

• Central Florida: Around 90°F with building humidity and scattered PM storms

• South Florida: Mid-80s, muggy, with increased chances of storms after 2 PM

Though today’s storms are not tropical, the overall pattern is signaling a slow seasonal transition.

Forecast radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com

Prep Tip of the Day: Get Ahead While It’s Quiet

This calm window is the perfect time to prepare:

• Review your hurricane plan and local evacuation routes

• Restock your hurricane kit—especially water, batteries, and medications

• Take photos of your home and valuables for insurance

• Sign up for local emergency alerts and bookmark Cat5Prep.com

• Know the difference between a watch and a warning before one is issued

Looking Ahead: No Storms Now, But Don’t Let That Fool You

Though nothing is spinning in the Atlantic today, all signs point to rising potential in the weeks ahead. Sea temperatures are already warm enough to support hurricanes. Wind shear is fading. Moisture and thunderstorm activity are increasing.

We are not forecasting imminent development—but the environment is evolving fast.

Check back tomorrow for your daily hurricane update from Cat5Prep.com.

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