Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 21, 2025: Tropics Active with Waves, But No Imminent Threats
The Atlantic remains cyclone-free, but several tropical waves are moving across the basin. Conditions are gradually becoming more favorable for development as July progresses.
The tropical Atlantic is becoming increasingly active, with multiple tropical waves progressing westward across the basin. While none are expected to develop in the short term, the setup is a reminder that we are entering a more climatologically favorable period for storm formation.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Atlantic Basin Overview: No Cyclones, But Multiple Waves
As of the 8:00 AM EDT update from the National Hurricane Center:
No active tropical cyclones
No systems with high development potential at this time
Disturbance 1: A tropical wave near 40°W is producing scattered convection, but environmental conditions remain only marginally favorable.
Formation chance (7 days): 20%
Movement: West to west-northwest at 10–15 mph
New Wave Introduced: A second tropical wave near 23°W, just offshore of Africa, is showing scattered moderate convection on its southern flank.
Too early to determine development potential, but it will be watched over the coming days.
Monsoon Trough Low: A weak low embedded along the monsoon trough near 08N44W is sparking convection, but not currently organized.
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR – GOES-19 Air Mass Composite – July 21, 2025
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Still Warm
Gulf of Mexico: 86–88°F – well above average
Western Caribbean: 85–87°F – supportive of development
Main Development Region (MDR): 82–84°F and climbing, with warm anomalies persisting
Warm waters throughout the basin provide the necessary energy for storms should other conditions align.
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear and Atmospheric Conditions
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Shear remains moderate across much of the central and eastern Atlantic but is expected to weaken later in the week.
Moisture levels continue rising, particularly in the MDR and Caribbean.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Still present but beginning to thin slightly, particularly west of 40°W.
These factors collectively suggest improving potential for storm development by late July or early August.
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean Outlook
A surface trough remains in the eastern Bay of Campeche, producing scattered thunderstorms.
Light to moderate winds (10–15 kt) dominate much of the Gulf, with seas around 3–5 feet.
Fresh winds (15–20 kt) and higher seas (6–8 ft) continue across parts of the south-central Caribbean.
Expect stronger trades and more convection near the Windward Passage and central Caribbean midweek as a tropical wave enters the region.
Wave height forecast (ECMWF Waves) courtesy of Windy.com
Surface pressure data (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F
Humidity: High
Rain Chances: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms, driven by sea breezes and instability
Winds: Light and variable, turning southeast near the coast
Hazards: Isolated strong storms possible with gusty winds and localized flooding
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Update Insurance and Inventory
Flex Tape – Heavy-Duty Waterproof Seal
Instantly stop leaks and reinforce weak spots during storm prep. A must-have in every emergency kit.
Use this lull to get your disaster documentation in order:
Review your homeowners or renters insurance policy
Document your belongings via photos or video
Store digital backups in the cloud
Know your flood zone and verify your flood insurance coverage
Looking Ahead: Tropics Warming Up
While no tropical cyclone development is expected in the next 7 days, the overall pattern is becoming more favorable. Multiple waves in the deep tropics bear watching, and model guidance hints at potential activity in early August. We'll continue monitoring all waves for signs of organization.
Stay informed, stay prepared, and check back daily for updates from Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 19, 2025: Disturbance in the Deep Tropics Eyes Development
A tropical wave southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands shows a low chance of development as it moves westward. Conditions remain mixed across the Atlantic, but signs of activity are increasing.
The Atlantic Basin remains relatively quiet today, but there’s a new player on the map. A tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic—labeled Disturbance 1—has a low but notable chance of development over the next week. This marks the first sign of deeper tropical activity emerging from the Main Development Region (MDR) as we move closer to peak hurricane season.
Atlantic Basin Overview: One Area to Watch
As of 8:00 AM EDT Saturday, July 19, 2025, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring:
No named tropical cyclones
One disturbance in the central Atlantic
Tropical development chances:
10% over 48 hours
20% over 7 days
Disturbance 1 is a tropical wave located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, interacting with a broad area of low pressure. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized, but marginally favorable conditions could support slow development as the system moves west to west-northwest around 10 mph.
However, by mid-week, environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable, limiting its window for intensification.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Fuel in Place
Waters remain very warm across much of the Atlantic:
Gulf of Mexico: Holding above 86°F (30°C) in many areas
Western Caribbean: High SSTs remain steady
Main Development Region (MDR): Warm enough to support tropical wave development—an important factor as more systems emerge off Africa
These warm waters are key to supporting systems like Disturbance 1.
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear & Moisture: Still Mixed
Wind Shear: Moderate in the eastern Atlantic near Disturbance 1 but lower closer to the Caribbean
Moisture: Rising across the western Atlantic, but dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is still suppressing deeper convection across much of the MDR
While the disturbance has some support for development, these mixed upper-atmospheric conditions could limit growth.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer: Still an Inhibitor
Dry, dusty air continues to stretch across much of the central and eastern Atlantic. It:
Reduces storm cloud organization
Increases atmospheric stability
Weakens convection associated with tropical waves
SAL is expected to persist into early August but may begin to recede gradually.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Isolated and Mostly Local
Florida: Scattered PM thunderstorms expected—typical for this time of year
Gulf & Western Caribbean: Moisture lingers but no signs of tropical organization
Off Africa/Central Atlantic: Activity is tied to Disturbance 1, but convection remains weak
Thunderstorm forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s
Humidity: High
Rain: Isolated to scattered afternoon storms
Winds: Light to moderate easterlies
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Know the Early Signs
With deeper Atlantic activity beginning, now is a good time to refresh your awareness:
Follow NHC's five-day outlooks
Understand what “low chance” really means—it can change fast with heat and time
Review your emergency communication plan and make sure alerts are enabled
Looking Ahead: Watch the MDR
While Disturbance 1 may or may not develop, its emergence from the Cabo Verde region is a signal that the deep tropics are beginning to stir. Expect more waves in the coming weeks as we approach the climatological ramp-up of hurricane season.
Stay informed. Stay ready. Your next real-time update comes tomorrow from Cat5Prep.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 18, 2025: Tropics Quiet, But Gulf Moisture Persists
The Atlantic remains free of tropical storms today, but rising ocean heat and evolving atmospheric patterns point to potential development in the coming weeks. Stay prepared with Cat5Prep's daily hurricane outlook.
The Atlantic basin remains relatively quiet as we enter the weekend, with no active tropical cyclones or immediate threats on the map. However, lingering moisture from a weak low in the Gulf of Mexico continues to impact parts of the Southeast with enhanced rain chances. Meanwhile, environmental signals are gradually shifting toward favorability as we move closer to the climatological ramp-up in late July.
Atlantic Basin: Still Quiet, But Watchful
As of this morning’s update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
No active tropical cyclones
No named systems or advisories
No tropical development expected over the next 7 days
The basin remains in a holding pattern—but that may change in the weeks ahead.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Running Hot
Ocean heat content continues to build across key development zones:
Gulf of Mexico: Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain in the mid-to-upper 80s°F (29–31°C), well above average.
Western Caribbean: Waters continue to warm, supporting deep convection.
Main Development Region (MDR): SSTs between Africa and the Caribbean are approaching thresholds that historically support long-track hurricanes.
These conditions set the stage for rapid intensification when tropical systems do form.
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear and Atmospheric Moisture: Becoming More Conducive
While upper-level wind shear remains moderate in parts of the Caribbean and central Atlantic, it is gradually weakening—especially closer to the Gulf. Atmospheric moisture continues to increase:
Mid-level moisture is supporting thunderstorm development
Reduced shear and rising instability create a more supportive environment for potential tropical waves
This combination is worth monitoring as we approach the latter half of July.
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: A Temporary Shield
Dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) remain active over the eastern Atlantic:
SAL suppresses convection by drying out the lower atmosphere
It also enhances wind shear, limiting vertical storm growth
This protective layer typically weakens in August
While it currently limits tropical wave development off Africa, its influence is expected to wane soon.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Gulf Moisture: Lingering Showers, Low Development Risk
A broad area of low pressure and enhanced moisture remains over the northern Gulf of Mexico:
Development chances remain very low
The system is disorganized, with no surface circulation
Still, heavy rain and localized flooding are possible today along the Gulf Coast, particularly in southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and southeastern Louisiana
This disturbance is more of a rainmaker than a tropical threat but illustrates how even weak lows can impact coastal regions.
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Humid and Storm-Prone
Expect classic July conditions across the state:
North Florida: Highs in the low 90s, partly cloudy, isolated afternoon storms
Central Florida: Around 91°F, muggy, with widespread PM storms
South Florida: Mid-to-upper 80s, very humid, storms possible after 2 PM
Local flooding is possible in poor drainage areas due to repeated rounds of heavy showers.
Thunderstorm forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Review Evacuation Zones
Now is the time to double-check your local evacuation zone and routes:
Know whether you're in a surge or flood-prone area
Identify multiple exit routes in case primary roads are closed
Plan ahead for pets, medication, and transportation
Being familiar with your zone before a storm is one of the best preparedness steps you can take.
Looking Ahead: A Quiet Stretch, But a Shift Is Coming
While the tropics are calm for now, the combination of warming waters, weakening wind shear, and deepening atmospheric moisture signals that a transition to a more active pattern is coming.
Expect activity to increase in late July into early August, as the historical ramp-up in hurricane season begins.
Check back tomorrow for the next update from Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 16, 2025: Gulf Disturbance Lingers, Tropics Stay Quiet
A weak low in the Gulf of Mexico brings rain and storms to Florida, but no tropical development is expected. Cat5Prep’s daily update covers real-time conditions, SSTs, and what to watch next.
The Atlantic hurricane basin remains quiet in terms of named storms, but attention continues to center on a weak low-pressure system lingering over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although this system remains disorganized and development chances are low, it’s bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms across parts of Florida, the northeastern Gulf, and coastal Georgia.
While no tropical development is expected over the next 7 days, the broader environment is slowly shifting toward favorability, with rising sea surface temperatures, weakening wind shear, and the gradual retreat of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL).
Atlantic Basin Overview
As of the latest NHC update (2:00 PM EDT):
No active tropical cyclones
One disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico (Low development chance)
No tropical formation expected in the next 7 days
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico
A broad area of low pressure continues to meander just west of Florida over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico:
Development chances remain low (0% over 48 hours, 10% over 7 days)
System remains non-tropical and disorganized
Producing periods of heavy rainfall, especially across the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina
Some gusty winds and isolated flooding may occur, especially in areas with poor drainage
This system is expected to drift inland by late Thursday, reducing any tropical potential.
Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
Ocean temperatures remain exceptionally warm, providing high potential energy for storm development once other conditions align:
Gulf of Mexico: 86–89°F (2–4°F above normal)
Western Caribbean: 85–88°F
Main Development Region (MDR): Now reaching 82–84°F across much of the eastern Atlantic
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind Shear: Still elevated in the western Atlantic and Gulf, but beginning to weaken, particularly near Central America and the western Caribbean.
Moisture: Mid-level moisture continues to increase, especially in the Caribbean and southern Gulf.
Saharan Air Layer: A large, dry SAL continues to stretch across the central Atlantic, suppressing storm formation east of the Lesser Antilles, but it's expected to weaken by early August.
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm & Rainfall Activity
Florida & Gulf Coast: Expect locally heavy rain and thunderstorm clusters tied to the Gulf disturbance.
Western Caribbean: Some disorganized convection continues, but nothing tropical at this time.
West Africa: A new tropical wave has emerged, but faces significant dry air and shear over the central Atlantic.
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F
Humidity: High, with a heat index reaching the upper 90s
Rain: 60–70% chance of scattered storms in parts of Florida, especially in the afternoon and evening
Winds: Light southeast winds, with occasional gusts during storms
Prep Tip of the Day: Review Flood Insurance Coverage
Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage. Use this calm window to:
Check your flood zone designation
Review your current policy limits
Confirm your coverage start date (flood insurance usually has a 30-day waiting period)
With warm SSTs and an increasingly favorable atmosphere, inland and coastal flood risk rises as we move deeper into hurricane season.
Looking Ahead: Watchful, Not Worrying
Although July 16 brings no immediate storm threats, all eyes remain on the broader Atlantic:
The ingredients for development are aligning: warm water, weakening shear, and increased moisture.
The next two weeks may see the first organized systems forming in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.
Now is the time to stay informed and finalize preparations—not when a storm is already on the map.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 15, 2025: Gulf System Organizing, Tropics on Alert
A weak low over Florida is drifting into the Gulf of Mexico, producing heavy rain and prompting close monitoring. While development chances remain low, record-warm waters and shifting winds suggest more activity is coming.
The Atlantic remains officially quiet, but eyes are turning toward the Gulf of Mexico as a broad area of low pressure continues to develop. Though not yet a tropical depression, this system is producing heavy rainfall across parts of Florida and may slowly organize over the next few days. Elsewhere, warm sea surface temperatures and improving atmospheric conditions continue to set the stage for increased activity as July progresses.
Atlantic Basin: Watching the Gulf
As of this morning’s update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
No named tropical cyclones
One area of interest: Disturbance near Florida
Development potential: Low over 48 hours (10%), Slightly higher over 7 days (20%)
A broad, weak surface trough stretching across southern Florida is generating scattered storms and heavy rainfall. As it drifts westward into the Gulf of Mexico, slight development is possible—though wind shear and dry air may continue to limit its growth in the near term.
Regardless of tropical classification, this system is expected to bring:
Heavy rainfall across Florida and the Gulf Coast
Localized flash flooding
Coastal thunderstorms and rough surf
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Primed and Warming
Waters across much of the Atlantic basin are running well above average:
Gulf of Mexico: 87–89°F (30–32°C) across much of the basin—ideal for storm formation
Caribbean Sea: Persistently warm, with temperatures near or above 86°F (30°C)
Main Development Region (MDR): Trending well above average for mid-July
This level of ocean heat content supports rapid intensification potential for any system that organizes in the coming weeks.
Sea Surface Temperature (ECMWF Analysis) courtesy of Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Becoming More Favorable
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind Shear: Moderate across the Gulf and Caribbean, but forecast models show a gradual easing through late week
Moisture Levels: Improving, especially in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf
Upper-Level Winds: Starting to show a less hostile pattern over the Gulf and MDR
Overall, the atmospheric profile is trending toward neutral to favorable—a subtle but important change.
Relative Humidity data (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Retreating Slowly
Dry air remains across parts of the eastern Atlantic but is beginning to loosen its grip:
Still suppressing deep convection off the African coast
Expected to retreat westward and weaken through the next 7–10 days
This transition opens the door for tropical waves to survive and organize
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida & Gulf Coast Forecast: Wet and Stormy
The disturbance currently over Florida is impacting much of the region:
Florida Peninsula
Scattered to widespread showers and storms today
Localized flooding possible, especially in urban areas
Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s°F
Northern Gulf Coast (AL/MS/FL Panhandle)
Cloudier skies and increasing storms through tomorrow
Elevated rainfall totals possible
Winds 10–20 mph with gusty thunderstorms
Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Secure Outdoor Items
With storms increasing across the Southeast:
Bring in or secure loose outdoor items like patio furniture, garden tools, and trash bins
Clear storm drains and gutters to reduce urban flooding risk
Monitor flash flood alerts in flood-prone neighborhoods
Looking Ahead: A Pattern Shift Is Coming
Although no named systems are expected in the next few days, the Gulf disturbance is a reminder that even weak systems can cause significant impacts. Sea surface temperatures and weakening wind shear are setting the table for development in the latter half of July.
Stay tuned, stay prepared, and check back daily with Cat5Prep for accurate, actionable updates.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 9, 2025: Calm Seas Persist Amid Seasonal Build
The Atlantic remains quiet today, with no active storms and no development expected. But record-warm waters and shifting atmospheric patterns suggest that tropical activity could ramp up soon.
Mid-July typically signals more tropical activity—but today, the Atlantic remains unusually quiet. According to the latest NHC updates, no tropical cyclones are present, with no expected development over the next seven days. Despite the current calm, strong indicators suggest the season’s intensity is primed to rise.
Atlantic Basin: All Clear for Now
No active systems in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf
NHC forecast maintains zero development chances across the basin
This lull is rare for July and may end soon as heat and moisture build
Satellite view via Windy.com
Seasonal Outlook: Above-Normal Conditions Ahead
CSU’s July update continues to forecast an above-average season:
~17 named storms, including ~9 hurricanes and ~4 major hurricanes .NOAA similarly predicts 13–19 named storms, with a 60% chance of a busier-than-average season.
Sea Surface Temperatures: High Heat Levels
Atlantic SSTs remain well above normal—2–4°F above average—in the Gulf, Caribbean, and MDR
These elevated temperatures continue to provide plenty of energy for storm formation in the weeks ahead
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Secondary Barriers Easing
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind shear remains moderate-to-high, particularly in the eastern Atlantic—temporarily limiting development
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) and occasional dry mid-level air still suppress convection but are expected to diminish
Moisture is steadily increasing, with abundant humidity projected across storm-prone regions
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
What to Watch Next
Upcoming Infrared and visible satellite loops for signs of organization
Shifts in wind shear over the Gulf and Caribbean
Any African easterly waves gaining moisture and structure
Wind Gust Accumulation Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Early July Trends
Only one named storm (Chantal) has formed so far, but it remained weak and quickly dissipated
History shows many July systems originate in the Gulf, Caribbean, or off the Southeast U.S. coast
Outlook: Active Patterns Brewing
While quiet now, the combination of warm SSTs, moist air, and weakening shear/SAL signals a rising likelihood of Atlantic development
Hurricane Season Peak is still ahead—August through October—but increased vigilance is essential now
Prep Tip of the Day: Check Your Alert Systems
With the season expected to intensify:
Confirm NOAA Weather Radio is operational
Enable emergency alerts on all devices
Update your hurricane kit and evacuation plan
Bookmark Cat5Prep.com and the National Hurricane Center for future updates
The Atlantic remains calm—but the foundation for tropical activity is strengthening daily. Stay alert, stay prepared, and check back tomorrow for your next Cat5Prep.com outlook.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 20, 2025: Tropics Hold Quiet as Atlantic Patterns Begin to Shift
The Atlantic remains calm with no storms expected, but warm waters and shifting atmospheric patterns hint that the quiet may not last. A developing Atlantic Niña could hit a reversal and amplify activity later this season.
As we close out the third week of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, the basin remains quiet. No named storms or tropical disturbances are being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and no development is expected over the next 7 days. However, behind this calm lies a subtle shift in Atlantic patterns that may influence storm activity in the weeks ahead.
Atlantic Basin: All Clear—for Now
As of the latest NHC update (8 AM EDT, June 20):
No active tropical cyclones
No areas of interest
No tropical development expected through late June
This type of quiet is typical for mid-June, historically a transitional period before activity ramps up in July and peaks from August to October.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Still Hot, Still Fuel
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across much of the Atlantic remain well above normal:
Gulf of America (Mexico): Mid to upper 80s°F (29–31°C), 2–4°F above average
Western Caribbean: Similar anomalies, particularly near the Yucatán and Cuba
Main Development Region (MDR): Still warming gradually, trending toward conditions that could support long-track storms later this season
Warm SSTs are a critical energy source for hurricanes—and the heat is already in place.
Sea Surface Temperature (ECMWF Analysis) via Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Neutral ENSO, but Atlantic Cooling Briefly
While the Pacific remains in an ENSO-neutral phase, a rare “Atlantic Niña” has recently emerged—marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic off the coast of Africa, as seen in the NOAA Coral Reef Watch chart below with a pocket of blue.
This can temporarily suppress early-season hurricane formation by reducing convection and stabilizing the atmosphere
However, models indicate that this pattern may reverse in July, shifting into a warmer Atlantic Niño phase, which typically boosts tropical activity
So, while the Atlantic Niña may be limiting development now, forecasters are closely watching the timing of this transition. Safe money would be on a reversal, which could super charge storm breeding.
Overall Scope of Sea Temperature Anomalies
Saharan Air Layer: Still Limiting Tropical Waves
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
A strong Saharan Air Layer (SAL) remains entrenched across the tropical Atlantic:
Dry, dusty air suppresses thunderstorm development
Increases stability and upper-level wind shear
Common in June, but typically weakens by mid-July
For now, SAL continues to act as a shield against organized tropical development in the Main Development Region.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data via Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Mostly Seasonal and Local
While no tropical organization is underway, convection continues to pop up in key regions:
Florida and Gulf Coast: Afternoon storms due to heat and humidity
Western Caribbean: Scattered convection, but unorganized
Eastern Atlantic: A few tropical waves exiting Africa remain weak and embedded in dry air
These thunderstorms are typical for the season and do not currently show signs of tropical development.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33°C)
Humidity: High
Afternoon Storms: Scattered area of thunderstorms likely after 2 PM
Winds: Light and variable, with storm gusts possible
Flooding in low-lying areas is possible if storms linger over one area.
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Restock Pet Supplies
Don’t forget your furry family members when preparing for hurricane season:
Have a two-week supply of pet food, medications, and water
Keep vaccination records and vet contact info in your go-bag
Prepare a small pet first-aid kit
Label pet carriers clearly and store them where they’re easy to grab
Looking Ahead: Transition Coming
For now, the Atlantic basin is calm. But forecasters continue to watch:
Warm SSTs
Easing wind shear
Gradual return of moisture
Potential reversal from Atlantic Niña to Atlantic Niño
All signs point to a more active environment forming as we move into July. Stay alert, stay prepared, and check back tomorrow for your daily hurricane outlook from Cat5Prep.com.
*As an Amazon Associate, we earn from qualifying purchases.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 18, 2025: Tropics Stay Quiet as Pacific Storms Steer Focus
The Atlantic remains storm-free on June 18, with no tropical systems expected over the next 7 days. But warming ocean temps and an active Pacific raise long-range concerns.
The Atlantic basin remains calm today, with no active tropical cyclones and no systems being monitored for development in the National Hurricane Center’s latest 2 AM EDT outlook. This early-season quiet continues, but shifting global patterns—warm oceans, dust, and Pacific activity—are fueling a cautious watchfulness.
Atlantic Basin: Clear, But Keep Watching
No Atlantic systems are active, and the seven-day forecast shows no tropical development expected this week . While mid-June calm is common, meteorologists note stronger global volatility due to cross-basin interactions and shifting climate signals.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Pacific Spotlight: Tropical Storm Erick on the Rise
Wind Speed Probability Tropical Storm Erick
All eyes are on the Eastern Pacific, where Tropical Storm Erick is rapidly strengthening—forecast to become the season’s first Pacific hurricane. Though Erick poses no threat to U.S. shores, it demonstrates the early-season dynamism that Atlantic may encounter soon.
Wind Gust Accumulation Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Heat Builds Beneath the Calm
Gulf & Western Caribbean: SSTs remain well above average (84–88 °F), providing potential fuel.
Main Development Region (MDR): Water temperatures are warming and trending warmer than early June norms, laying a foundation for development later in the season.
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Saharan Dust & Atmospheric Inhibitors
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
A large plume of Saharan dust continues to stretch across the Atlantic and into the Caribbean and Southeast U.S., suppressing tropical formation and degrading air quality.
This dust layer, combined with moderate wind shear, continues to inhibit tropical systems.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Summer Rhythm
Florida & Southeast U.S.: Expect standard afternoon thunderstorms, born from daytime heating—not tropical phenomena.
Caribbean & Atlantic: Skies remain clear, with no clusters or organic storms forming.
Air Quality Alert: Sensitive groups should note haze and dust over the Southeast.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast (June 18)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: High, with muggy conditions
Rain: Isolated to scattered afternoon storms
Visibility: Reduced by dust haze in some regions
Winds: Light, stronger near storms
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Monitor Dust and Air Quality
Minimize outdoor exposure if you’re sensitive to dust
Clean or replace filters in HVAC systems
Keep monitoring dust levels through local air-quality alerts
Continue hurricane planning while skies are calm
Looking Ahead: Still Quiet, But Global Trends Are Stirring
No Atlantic storms are expected this week. However:
SSTs remain elevated
Wind shear may ease gradually
Saharan dust may shift or thin
Eastern Pacific activity—like Erick—offers insight into potential future Atlantic behavior
Use this calm period to prepare. Tomorrow could bring the first tropical ripple, so stay connected to Cat5Prep for ongoing updates.
*As an Amazon Associate, we earn from qualifying purchases.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 13, 2025: Record-Warm Waters, Calm Tropics
The Atlantic remains calm on June 13, 2025, with no tropical systems expected this week. But record-warm ocean temperatures hint at growing potential for storms later in June.
As of this morning, the Atlantic basin remains quiet with no active tropical cyclones, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is not monitoring any areas for development over the next seven days. This early season calm is typical for June, but it's occurring alongside some of the warmest sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on record for this time of year.
Atlantic Basin: No Immediate Threats
There are no named storms, no tropical disturbances, and no development expected through June 20, according to the NHC’s latest outlook. While quiet conditions aren’t unusual for early June, the current oceanic heat buildup is setting the stage for a potentially more active second half of the month.
Satellite data via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Running Hot
Across much of the Atlantic basin:
Gulf of America (Mexico): SSTs are in the low to mid-80s°F (28–30°C), well above average
Western Caribbean: Also warm, supporting favorable conditions for future development
Main Development Region (MDR): Temperatures continue to trend higher than normal — a red flag as we move closer to peak hurricane season
SST data via Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Mixed Signals
Wind Shear: Remains moderate to high in some areas, limiting storm organization for now, but models show signs of gradual easing
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Dry, dusty air continues to spread across the eastern and central Atlantic, suppressing convection
Moisture Levels: Slowly increasing in the western Caribbean and Gulf, signaling that the environment is gradually becoming more storm-friendly
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Thunderstorm Activity: Diurnal, Not Tropical
Florida and the Southeast U.S.: Expect typical scattered afternoon thunderstorms, driven by heating — not tropical systems
Caribbean and Atlantic: No signs of organized storm activity
Thunderstorm data via Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Midsummer Preview
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33°C)
Humidity: High — muggy conditions will persist
Rain: Afternoon storms likely in areas, but short-lived and localized
Winds: Light and variable
Thunderstorm data via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Know What to Watch For
Now’s a great time to sharpen your hurricane awareness:
Follow daily updates from Cat5Prep and the National Hurricane Center
Brush up on storm formation basics — including the roles of sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and the Saharan Air Layer
Update your hurricane supplies and family communication plan
Looking Ahead: Stay Ready
While the tropics are quiet now, conditions are steadily shifting. Record-breaking ocean heat, reducing wind shear, and a moistening atmosphere all point toward a potentially active late June and July. The calm won’t last forever — use this time to prepare.
Stay safe. Stay informed. Stay ready with Cat5Prep.com.
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 10, 2025: Quiet Continues, But Observers Stay Alert
No storms in sight, but sea surface temperatures continue to rise and wind shear is gradually easing—signs that the quiet start to the 2025 hurricane season may not last.
The tenth day of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season opens with calm skies and no immediate threats. The latest update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirms no active systems and no expected tropical cyclone formation over the next seven days. Early June often starts this way, but with sea surface temperatures climbing and atmospheric factors slowly shifting, vigilance remains important.
Atlantic Basin: No Systems in Sight
No active tropical cyclones
No areas of interest
No development anticipated within 7 days
This outlook aligns with the expected early-season lull, but conditions are steadily changing.
Satellite data courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Warming Trend Continues
Gulf of Mexico & Western Caribbean: Still in the low to mid‑80s °F (around 27–29 °C), ideal for fueling storms when other factors permit
Main Development Region (MDR): Running warmer than average for early June—enough to support development later this month
These warm waters are critical as the season progresses.
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Mixed Signals
Wind Shear: Moderate to high across much of the basin, particularly within the western Caribbean and central Atlantic—limiting today’s storm potential
Moisture: Mid-level moisture appears to be on the rise, which could support future thunderstorm activity
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: A Dry Deterrent
A robust plume of Saharan dust continues to suppress tropical wave development across the eastern Atlantic and MDR
This dry layer is expected to ease by late June, removing one of the key early-season inhibitors
Saharan Air Layer data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Routine, Not Tropical
Florida & Southeastern U.S.: Expect isolated afternoon storms typical for June
Western Caribbean: A few disorganized showers and storms—no rotation or organization evident
Atlantic Ocean: Quiet, with no tropical wave activity currently observed
Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast (Statewide)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: Moderate to high—classic muggy comfort
Rain: Scattered afternoon/evening showers typical of early summer
Winds: Light and variable
Rain data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Check Evacuation Zones
With time on your side:
Confirm your evacuation zone and review the planned evacuation route
Update your family emergency contact lists
Ensure your NOAA weather radio and mobile alert settings are active
Keep local emergency management contacts accessible
Looking Ahead: Still Quiet, But Watch for Change
While no tropical development is expected this week, underlying conditions are subtly shifting:
Warm ocean waters persist
Atmospheric wind shear is forecast to gradually decrease
Moisture levels are on the rise
Saharan dust is weakening, removing suppression barriers
Early hurricane season often starts quietly—but conditions can change fast. Stay tuned to Cat5Prep.com for daily updates.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 9, 2025: Tropical Tranquility Continues
No storms are expected this week as the Atlantic hurricane season stays quiet. Warm waters and shifting wind patterns suggest activity could increase later in June. Stay prepared with today’s full update.
The ninth day of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season dawns with quiet conditions—no active storms or signs of tropical development are present. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirms that no tropical cyclone formation is expected in the Atlantic Basin over the next seven days. It's a typical early-June lull, but with warming waters and shifting atmospheric dynamics, conditions may change quickly.
Atlantic Basin: Clear Skies, No Areas of Concern
No active tropical cyclones
No disturbances or systems being monitored
7-day outlook shows no development expected
This continued calm aligns with seasonal norms—but forecasters are keeping a cautious eye on the evolving environment.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Warm and Watchful
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Western Caribbean: Sea surface temperatures remain in the low‑to‑mid‑80s °F (27–29 °C), sufficient to fuel tropical systems.
Main Development Region (MDR): SSTs are gradually rising, though not yet at peak summer levels.
These ongoing warm waters provide a key energy source for future storm formation.
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data courtesy of Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Still Mixed, Not Conducive
Wind Shear: Moderate to high shear persists, particularly in western Caribbean and central Atlantic—suppressing thunderstorm organization.
Moisture Levels: While mid-level atmospheric moisture is increasing, it's not yet sufficiently abundant or widespread to support cyclone development.
Together, these factors continue to limit tropical activity.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: A Persistent Block
A strong plume of dry, dusty Saharan air remains entrenched over the central and eastern Atlantic.
This Saharan Air Layer (SAL) injects dryness and wind shear that further inhibit storm formation.
Expect suppression to continue into mid-June when SAL influence typically begins to decline fox35orlando.com.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Routine, Non-Tropical
Florida & Southeast U.S.: Scattered afternoon storms—typical for early June.
Western Caribbean: A few isolated, disorganized cells persist, but show no signs of development.
Eastern Atlantic: Quiet and without organized convection.
These systems are seasonal and not related to hurricane development.
Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast (All Regions)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: Moderate to high, creating a muggy atmosphere
Rain: Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening storms
Winds: Light and variable
A classic early-summer day with palm trees swaying but no storm threats.
Rainfall forecast courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Review Evacuation Plans
Use this calm window to double-check your evacuation readiness:
Reconfirm your evacuation zone and route.
Update your household emergency plan, including pets and special needs.
Keep contact numbers accessible, especially local officials and emergency services.
Test your NOAA weather radio and ensure alerts are activated on mobile devices.
Looking Ahead: Still Calm, But Eyes Remain Open
No tropical development is forecast this week, but the environment is slowly warming and becoming more favorable:
Warm water concentrations persist
Wind shear may decrease in the coming weeks
Moisture levels are increasing regionally
While it's still quiet, conditions are edging toward potential activity. Continue to check in daily for updates as Cat5Prep.com monitors the evolving season.
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 6, 2025: Quiet Tropics, No Development Expected
June 6, 2025: No named storms or tropical threats in the Atlantic basin today, but signs of change are emerging. Sea surface temperatures continue to climb, and wind shear may weaken in the coming weeks. Now’s the time to review your hurricane prep plan.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season continues with a calm week, as no tropical cyclones or areas of concern are present. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirms no tropical development is expected over the next seven days, marking a quiet yet cautious start to June.
Atlantic Basin: Clear Skies for Now
From the 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook issued June 6:
No active tropical cyclones
No areas of concern
No development expected in the next seven days
The NHC’s maps and guidance reflect this assessment, indicating a continued quiet period. Notably, previous offshore coastal disturbances have been dropped and are no longer being tracked.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Stable But Still Warm
Warm SSTs persist in regions key to hurricane development:
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Western Caribbean: Remain seasonally warm (low to mid-80s°F)
Main Development Region (MDR): Still trending above normal for early June
While SSTs provide essential fuel, other atmospheric factors currently suppress development.
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear & Moisture: Conditions Not Yet Favorable
Wind Shear: Moderate across much of the basin, particularly in the western Caribbean and central Atlantic
Atmospheric Moisture: Rising gradually, but not yet supportive of storm formation
These conditions reduce the likelihood of tropical development in the immediate future.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: Suppression in Full Effect
A strong plume of Saharan dust continues to suppress Atlantic convection:
Dry air and elevated shear persist across the eastern tropical Atlantic and MDR apnews.com
The SAL remains a key barrier to any early-season system development
Expect this barrier to weaken later in June
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Localized, Non-Tropical
Florida & Southeastern U.S.: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms—normal for this season
Western Caribbean: Isolated, disorganized showers and storms with no rotation
Eastern U.S. Coast: No significant organized convection detected
These are routine summer thunderstorms—not tropical systems.
Thunderstorm forecast data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Typical Early Summer Conditions
Expect another classic June day:
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: Moderate to high, creating muggy conditions
Rain: Scattered afternoon and evening showers likely
Winds: Light and variable
Rainfall forecast data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Emergency Alerts and Insurance
Take advantage of today’s calm to:
Confirm your emergency alert subscriptions, including text and email
Review your insurance coverage and update policy details if needed
Gather digital and physical copies of critical documents
Familiarize yourself with evacuation zones in your area
Looking Ahead: Still Calm, But Stay Vigilant
NHC projections show no tropical development through June 13–14, but underlying conditions—particularly warm waters and gradually weakening shear—will become increasingly favorable. The primary barriers are the Saharan dust layer and fluctuating atmospheric moisture.
Remember: hurricanes can form quickly when conditions align. Continue to monitor daily forecasts at Cat5Prep.com.
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 4, 2025: A Flicker on the Horizon
Though no storms are active, key hurricane ingredients are aligning fast. A developing low near the Southeast U.S. and rising SSTs suggest change is coming.
The fourth day of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season opens with quiet skies—but a subtle shift is underway. For the first time this season, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has flagged a potential area of interest offshore the southeastern United States. While development chances remain low, it’s a reminder that conditions are evolving and the atmosphere is beginning to stir.
Atlantic Basin: A New Watch Zone Emerges
As of this morning’s Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC:
No active tropical cyclones
One area of interest off the Southeastern U.S. coast
No tropical development expected in the next 48 hours
Low (10%) chance of development over the next 7 days
A non-tropical low pressure area is forecast to form near or offshore the Southeast U.S. coast.
If it remains offshore, it may gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while drifting northeastward at 10–15 mph.
— NHC Forecaster Reinhart, June 4, 2025
No storm is expected soon—but it’s the first official mention of potential development this season.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Ready for Action
Warm waters across the Atlantic basin continue to deepen—creating an ideal foundation for future storm formation:
Gulf of Mexico: Running 2–4°F above average, with pockets exceeding 86°F (30°C)
Western Caribbean: SSTs remain high, particularly around Central America and Cuba
Main Development Region (MDR): Trending warmer than normal with gradual warming expected into late June
This warm ocean water is the primary energy source for hurricanes—and it’s already in place.
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear & Moisture: Storm Barriers Continue to Erode
Atmospheric conditions are shifting in a storm-friendly direction:
Wind shear is weakening in key zones like the Gulf and Caribbean
Moisture levels are rising at both low and mid-levels of the atmosphere
Vertical instability is increasing, supporting larger, longer-lasting thunderstorms
This transition increases the likelihood that disorganized storms could become organized systems.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: Still a Barrier, But Fading
A broad plume of Saharan dust remains in the central and eastern Atlantic, offering temporary protection:
Suppresses convection
Inhibits thunderstorm growth
Raises wind shear and dry air intrusion
However, models show this SAL influence weakening by mid-to-late June, removing one of the final natural inhibitors.
Saharan Air Layer data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Early Clues
Even in the absence of tropical storms, convective activity gives us clues about what's forming:
Western Caribbean & Bay of Campeche: Disorganized clusters of thunderstorms show signs of persistent convection
Southeastern U.S. Coast: Isolated convection associated with the developing non-tropical low
While nothing is organizing yet, this pattern often precedes early-season development.
Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Muggy Mornings, Stormy Afternoons
Expect typical summer conditions today across the state:
North Florida: Highs in the upper 80s, mostly sunny, low humidity
Central Florida: Around 90°F, with isolated thunderstorms after 2 PM
South Florida: Mid-80s, high humidity, with a greater risk of scattered PM storms
Afternoon thunderstorms are normal—but they also signal increasing moisture and instability across the region.
Forecast radar data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Snap and Store
With one system on the radar, now’s a good time to check off a simple but essential task:
📸 Take photos of your home, car, and valuables
☁️ Back up those images to the cloud or email them to yourself
🔒 These photos may be critical for insurance documentation after a storm
Also:
Review your hurricane kit and evacuation plan
Sign up for emergency text alerts from local agencies
Bookmark trusted resources like Cat5Prep.com and hurricanes.gov
Looking Ahead: A Season Starting to Stir
It’s still early in the season, but we’re beginning to see motion on the map:
Warm water and shifting winds are laying the groundwork
The Saharan Air Layer is fading
Thunderstorm activity is creeping into critical regions
Today’s 10% chance of development is low—but it may mark the quiet season’s turning point.
We'll continue tracking changes in the Atlantic and bring you updated guidance each day.
Check back tomorrow for your next hurricane update from Cat5Prep.com.
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 2, 2025: A Quiet Morning, But Don’t Get Comfortable
June 2, 2025 Atlantic hurricane update: Calm skies for now, but unusually warm sea surface temperatures and shifting atmospheric conditions could spark activity later this month. Stay prepared with the latest forecasts and safety tips.
The second day of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season begins under calm skies, but seasoned forecasters know better than to be lulled by the stillness. With sea temperatures running hot and atmospheric patterns shifting toward favorability, this quiet start may not last long.
Atlantic Basin: All Clear—For Now
As of this morning’s update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), there are no active tropical cyclones, no areas of interest, and no tropical development expected over the next seven days.
This early-season lull is common in the first half of June, but warm waters and waning atmospheric inhibitors are quietly setting the stage for activity later this month.
Satellite data courtesy of Windy.com
Ocean Heat: The Hidden Fuel Source
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the Atlantic basin are unusually high for this time of year—creating the potential for rapid storm intensification when development does occur:
Gulf of America (Mexico): Running 2–4°F above average, with large swaths above 86°F (30°C)
Caribbean Sea: Above-average temperatures, especially in the western basin
Main Development Region (MDR): Continuing to trend hot
Warm water is the engine that powers tropical cyclones, and the basin is already running well above operating temperature.
Sea surface temperature (SST) data courtesy of Windy.com
ENSO Status: La Nada Means No Safety Net
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral phase, a state meteorologists often refer to as "La Nada."
El Niño has ended, removing the high wind shear that often suppresses Atlantic hurricanes
La Niña has not yet begun, but conditions may be trending in that direction later this summer
Neutral ENSO removes large-scale inhibitors, allowing the Atlantic to operate unchecked
Historically, neutral ENSO years correlate with average to above-average tropical storm activity.
Wind data courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer: Dust Still Offers a Buffer—for Now
The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) continues to stretch across the tropical Atlantic, providing a temporary shield against storm formation:
Introduces dry, stable air into the atmosphere
Inhibits convection and cloud development
Increases wind shear in the central Atlantic
The SAL typically weakens by late June, making it easier for tropical waves to grow and organize.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: A Summer Day with a Side of Humidity
Today’s conditions across Florida reflect typical early-June weather:
North Florida: Highs in the upper 80s, low humidity, and mostly sunny skies
Central Florida: Highs around 90°F, building humidity, and isolated afternoon storms
South Florida: Warm and muggy with highs in the mid-80s and a greater chance of scattered storms after 2 PM
It’s a classic Florida day—but the kind that often precedes the real tropical drama in July and August.
Weather radar forecast data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tips: Take Advantage of the Calm
With no storms on the map, today is a perfect day to prepare:
Review your hurricane plan and evacuation routes
Restock your hurricane kit
Double-check home insurance coverage
Take photos of property and valuables
Sign up for local emergency alerts
Bookmark trusted sources like Cat5Prep.com and the National Hurricane Center
Looking Ahead: Eyes on the Tropics
We remain in a short-term window of calm, but all indicators suggest that activity will ramp up in the coming weeks. Record-breaking sea surface temperatures and favorable upper-atmospheric trends point to early-season development potential later in June.
Stay alert. Stay ready. And check back tomorrow for your next update from Cat5Prep.
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