Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 17, 2025: Gulf Disturbance Brings Rain Threat, Development Chances Remain Low
A weak system in the Gulf of Mexico—Invest 93L—is bringing heavy rain and storms to the Gulf Coast. Tropical development remains unlikely, but flooding risks persist. The rest of the Atlantic basin stays quiet… for now.
The Atlantic basin remains free of named tropical cyclones today, but a weak low-pressure system—Invest 93L—continues to bring rain and thunderstorms along parts of the Gulf of Mexico coast. While the system is unlikely to develop into a named storm, the primary concern is heavy rainfall and flash flooding across coastal regions from Florida to Louisiana. The rest of the basin remains quiet, but conditions are slowly trending toward increased activity.
Atlantic Basin: Quiet But Not Completely Clear
As of this morning’s update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
No active tropical cyclones
One area of interest: Invest 93L
Development odds remain low—about 30% over the next 7 days
No other tropical development expected across the Atlantic basin through the week
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Invest 93L: Soaking System Along the Gulf Coast
A disorganized low-pressure area near the northeastern Gulf continues to bring unsettled weather to parts of the Southeast U.S.:
Currently located offshore of the Florida Panhandle
Moving slowly westward toward the central Gulf Coast
Forecast models suggest inland movement into Louisiana or Mississippi by late Wednesday
Tropical development is unlikely due to land interaction and modest wind shear
Main concern:
Heavy rainfall (3–8 inches)
Localized flash flooding
Strong coastal thunderstorms and elevated rip current risk
Active weather alerts courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Fuel Is in Place
Ocean temperatures remain high enough to support development if conditions align:
Gulf of Mexico: 86–88°F in many areas, well above seasonal norms
Western Caribbean: Warm and primed for mid-to-late season activity
Main Development Region (MDR): Gradually warming but still suppressed by dry air
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear and Atmospheric Conditions: Mixed Signals
Wind shear is moderate in the Gulf, which may continue to prevent storm organization
Atmospheric moisture is elevated, helping to support widespread thunderstorm activity
No organized convection in the MDR due to Saharan dry air
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: Still Suppressing the Tropics
A significant plume of dry, dusty air continues to dominate the central and eastern Atlantic:
Disrupts storm cloud development
Introduces additional wind shear
Suppresses convection from African tropical waves
This layer is expected to weaken gradually in late July.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Gulf Coast Soaker
Florida Panhandle to Louisiana: Strong thunderstorms with heavy rain, especially along I-10 corridor
Central Florida: Scattered PM storms with high humidity and muggy conditions
Western Caribbean: Some convective clusters, but disorganized
Thunderstorm forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Humid, Stormy Conditions Persist
North Florida:
Mid to upper 80s, scattered storms possible
Central Florida:Near 90°F with humid air and afternoon thunderstorms
South Florida:Upper 80s, heavy downpours possible after 2 PM
Localized flooding could occur in urban and low-lying areas.
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Stay Flood-Aware
Even weak systems like Invest 93L can cause dangerous flooding. Today’s tip:
Avoid driving on flooded roads
Review local flood zones and evacuation plans
Elevate valuables if you live in a flood-prone area
Sign up for weather alerts from your local emergency management office
Looking Ahead: A Reminder, Not a Threat
Although Invest 93L isn’t expected to strengthen significantly, it’s a good reminder that even weak systems can cause disruption. As we approach the back half of July, forecasters will continue monitoring the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean, where development tends to increase.
Stay informed. Stay ready. And check back tomorrow for your daily update from Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 16, 2025: Quiet Tropics as Record Heat Builds
Despite calm Atlantic tropics with no systems expected, record-high temperatures surge across the basin—fueling atmospheric changes that could prime conditions for tropical development later this season.
The Atlantic basin remains calm today, with no active tropical cyclones and no areas of concern on the National Hurricane Center’s latest 2 AM EDT outlook. Despite the tranquil skies, beneath the surface trend lines reveal warming seas and evolving atmospherics that could pave the way for an active season.
Atlantic Basin: Clear Skies, No Threats
Tropical formation is not expected for the next 7 days—confirmed in both the graphical and textual 7-day outlooks.
This calm is typical for mid-June, but the stage is setting for future change.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Fueling the Season
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Western Caribbean continue averaging low- to mid-80s °F (27–30 °C), offering ample energy for storm development.
Main Development Region (MDR) is trending warmer than average—an early indicator of readiness for stronger tropical systems.
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Atmospheric Setup: Still Suppressive—For Now
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind shear remains moderate to high across key basins, limiting storm formation.
Mid-level moisture is gradually increasing, especially in Caribbean and Gulf regions—a sign atmospheric support is growing.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) still dominates much of the eastern Atlantic, suppressing convection and serving as a barrier to tropical wave development.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Forecast Conditions: Afternoon Storms Only
Florida & the Southeast U.S. continue seeing afternoon, summer-type thunderstorms—not related to any tropical systems.
Caribbean and Atlantic remain quiet without organized convection.
These storms mark the seasonal norm but are not indicative of tropical threats.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast (Statewide)
Highs: Low to mid‑90s °F (32–34 °C) in Central and South; upper‑80s in North Florida.
Humidity: High—typical early-summer conditions.
Rain: Scattered afternoon and evening showers.
Visibility: Slight haze possible due to lingering dust.
Winds: Light and variable, gusty near storm cells.
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Review and Readiness
This calm window is the best time to:
Verify evacuation routes and local zones.
Ensure NOAA Weather Radio and mobile alerts are active.
Double-check emergency kits, supplies, and documentation.
Stay informed through trusted sites like Cat5Prep.com and hurricanes.gov.
Looking Ahead: Steady Calm, But With Building Potential
Though no storms are expected this week, underlying conditions are subtly shifting:
Sea temperatures remain warm.
Rising moisture levels and decreasing wind shear may favor development.
The Saharan dust layer is weakening, especially in the eastern Atlantic.
Keep monitoring—what’s calm today could transition into tomorrow’s tropical threat.
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 13, 2025: Record-Warm Waters, Calm Tropics
The Atlantic remains calm on June 13, 2025, with no tropical systems expected this week. But record-warm ocean temperatures hint at growing potential for storms later in June.
As of this morning, the Atlantic basin remains quiet with no active tropical cyclones, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is not monitoring any areas for development over the next seven days. This early season calm is typical for June, but it's occurring alongside some of the warmest sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on record for this time of year.
Atlantic Basin: No Immediate Threats
There are no named storms, no tropical disturbances, and no development expected through June 20, according to the NHC’s latest outlook. While quiet conditions aren’t unusual for early June, the current oceanic heat buildup is setting the stage for a potentially more active second half of the month.
Satellite data via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Running Hot
Across much of the Atlantic basin:
Gulf of America (Mexico): SSTs are in the low to mid-80s°F (28–30°C), well above average
Western Caribbean: Also warm, supporting favorable conditions for future development
Main Development Region (MDR): Temperatures continue to trend higher than normal — a red flag as we move closer to peak hurricane season
SST data via Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Mixed Signals
Wind Shear: Remains moderate to high in some areas, limiting storm organization for now, but models show signs of gradual easing
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Dry, dusty air continues to spread across the eastern and central Atlantic, suppressing convection
Moisture Levels: Slowly increasing in the western Caribbean and Gulf, signaling that the environment is gradually becoming more storm-friendly
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Thunderstorm Activity: Diurnal, Not Tropical
Florida and the Southeast U.S.: Expect typical scattered afternoon thunderstorms, driven by heating — not tropical systems
Caribbean and Atlantic: No signs of organized storm activity
Thunderstorm data via Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Midsummer Preview
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33°C)
Humidity: High — muggy conditions will persist
Rain: Afternoon storms likely in areas, but short-lived and localized
Winds: Light and variable
Thunderstorm data via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Know What to Watch For
Now’s a great time to sharpen your hurricane awareness:
Follow daily updates from Cat5Prep and the National Hurricane Center
Brush up on storm formation basics — including the roles of sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and the Saharan Air Layer
Update your hurricane supplies and family communication plan
Looking Ahead: Stay Ready
While the tropics are quiet now, conditions are steadily shifting. Record-breaking ocean heat, reducing wind shear, and a moistening atmosphere all point toward a potentially active late June and July. The calm won’t last forever — use this time to prepare.
Stay safe. Stay informed. Stay ready with Cat5Prep.com.
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 12, 2025: Dusty Skies, Quiet Tropics
The Atlantic basin remains quiet with no tropical activity expected over the next week. Strong Saharan dust suppresses storm development and reduces air quality across Florida, but warming waters and easing wind shear hint at increased hurricane potential later in June.
As we move through the second week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the basin remains quiet. There are no active tropical cyclones, no areas of interest, and no expected development over the next 7 days, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 2 AM EDT outlook. While this calm is typical for early June, forecasters are keeping an eye on evolving conditions that could shift toward tropical development later this month.
Atlantic Basin: Still and Stable
No tropical systems are on the map, and the 7-day outlook remains clear. The Atlantic basin continues its quiet streak, consistent with climatology for early June. However, this calm will not last forever, and underlying signals suggest more favorable conditions could emerge by late June or early July.
Satellite image courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Warm and Ready
Ocean waters across the Atlantic basin are trending warm, offering potential fuel for future storms.
Gulf of America (Mexico): Low to mid-80s°F (28–30°C), above average in many spots.
Western Caribbean: Warm and supportive of tropical development later in the season.
Main Development Region (MDR): Warmer than normal for this time of year, laying the groundwork for long-track systems from Africa.
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Slowly Trending Toward Favorable
While the Atlantic remains quiet, the atmosphere is showing signs of gradual change.
Wind Shear remains moderate to high across parts of the Caribbean and central Atlantic, still limiting storm formation. However, global models suggest a slow reduction in shear over the coming weeks.
Mid-level moisture is increasing across the Caribbean and Gulf—helpful for deep convection and thunderstorms.
These subtle shifts are typical precursors to an uptick in tropical activity as the season matures.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: Strong and Dusty
A massive plume of Saharan dust is stretching across the Atlantic and reaching Florida and the Gulf Coast today.
The dry air and strong upper-level winds associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are suppressing tropical development.
This dust layer is also reducing air quality and visibility in parts of Florida and the Southeast, especially for those with respiratory conditions.
The SAL is expected to remain dominant into mid-to-late June before it begins to weaken.
Dust/SAL data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Mostly Local and Non-Tropical
Convective activity across the Atlantic basin is minimal and disorganized.
Florida: Hazy skies and isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected, but nothing tropical in nature.
Western Caribbean and Off the U.S. East Coast: Scattered showers remain unorganized.
Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Dusty Skies, Humid Air
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33°C)
Skies: Hazy due to Saharan dust
Rain Chances: Scattered PM thunderstorms possible
Air Quality: Reduced in some areas—sensitive groups should take precautions
Winds: Light and variable
Rain data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Protect Your Lungs and Finalize Your Plan
Use the quiet to finalize your hurricane prep, especially while dusty skies dominate:
Limit outdoor activity if you’re sensitive to dust or pollen
Replace or clean air filters in your home and car
Check that your family communication plan and evacuation routes are up to date
Store key websites in your browser bookmarks: hurricanes.gov, Cat5Prep.com
Looking Ahead: The Table Is Being Set
While the tropics are calm today, the pieces are slowly moving into place for increased activity later this month. Warm waters, a gradual easing of wind shear, and rising moisture hint at a more active pattern on the horizon. Stay vigilant, and check back daily for updates.
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 5, 2025: A Weak Low, a Wet Southeast, and a Watchful Eye
June 5 brings continued calm in the Atlantic, with no named storms and no areas of concern. But warm sea surface temperatures and slowly shifting atmospheric conditions suggest more activity may be on the way later this month.
The fifth day of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season begins with calm skies and no tropical activity on the horizon. While this early June quiet is typical, forecasters are closely watching for subtle atmospheric shifts that may usher in increased activity later in the month. Now is the perfect time to double-check your emergency plans while the weather remains cooperative.
Atlantic Basin: No Immediate Concerns
As of the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) update (8 PM EDT June 4 or the upcoming 2 AM EDT June 5 outlook):
No active tropical cyclones
No areas of interest under investigation
No development expected within the next 7 days
This quiet pattern aligns with the early season lull seen in most years before conditions ramp up later in June and July.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Warming Trend Continues
Ocean heat—an essential ingredient for tropical storm formation—is building across the Atlantic:
Gulf of America (Mexico): Widespread low to mid-80s°F (28–30°C), running above average
Western Caribbean: Seasonally warm, primed for potential development in coming weeks
Main Development Region (MDR): Temperatures are climbing faster than usual for early June, laying a foundation for future storms
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear & Moisture: Still Mixed, Slowly Improving
Atmospheric conditions aren’t yet fully supportive of tropical formation, but change is underway:
Wind Shear: Still moderate to high in the western Caribbean and central Atlantic—strong enough to disrupt organization. Long-range models show a gradual easing expected later in June
Moisture: Mid- and lower-atmosphere humidity is rising in the Gulf and Caribbean, hinting at increasing thunderstorm potential
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: Strong, But Temporary Barrier
The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) remains a major suppressing force across the tropical Atlantic:
Dry, dusty air and associated wind shear prevent tropical waves from organizing
This layer is expected to weaken by mid-to-late June, removing a key obstacle to development
Saharan Air Layer data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Typical Early Summer Patterns
No tropical cyclones—but thunderstorm activity continues in familiar places:
Florida: Scattered afternoon storms expected from daytime heating
Western Caribbean: Some disorganized convection is present but lacks structure
Off the U.S. East Coast: No significant organized convection at this time
Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast – Early Summer Vibes Across the Peninsula
Expect a classic early summer day throughout Florida:
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33°C) statewide
Humidity: Elevated levels bringing a muggy, tropical feel all day
Rain: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms likely, mostly brief and localized
Winds: Light and variable, with gentle breezes in many areas
Stay hydrated and be prepared for brief showers if you’re out and about this afternoon!
Radar data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Verify Emergency Contact Information
Use this calm stretch to get communication-ready:
Update your family contact plan—make sure everyone knows who to call
Register for local emergency alerts via text or email
Bookmark vital sites like hurricanes.gov and Cat5Prep.com
Looking Ahead: Calm Now, But Stay Ready
No development is expected in the coming week—but the groundwork is being laid:
Warm waters across the basin
Easing wind shear on the horizon
Moisture and instability beginning to rise
The tropics may be quiet today, but the story of the 2025 hurricane season is just beginning. Stay informed, stay ready—and check back tomorrow for the next Cat5Prep.com update.
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 4, 2025: A Flicker on the Horizon
Though no storms are active, key hurricane ingredients are aligning fast. A developing low near the Southeast U.S. and rising SSTs suggest change is coming.
The fourth day of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season opens with quiet skies—but a subtle shift is underway. For the first time this season, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has flagged a potential area of interest offshore the southeastern United States. While development chances remain low, it’s a reminder that conditions are evolving and the atmosphere is beginning to stir.
Atlantic Basin: A New Watch Zone Emerges
As of this morning’s Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC:
No active tropical cyclones
One area of interest off the Southeastern U.S. coast
No tropical development expected in the next 48 hours
Low (10%) chance of development over the next 7 days
A non-tropical low pressure area is forecast to form near or offshore the Southeast U.S. coast.
If it remains offshore, it may gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while drifting northeastward at 10–15 mph.
— NHC Forecaster Reinhart, June 4, 2025
No storm is expected soon—but it’s the first official mention of potential development this season.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Ready for Action
Warm waters across the Atlantic basin continue to deepen—creating an ideal foundation for future storm formation:
Gulf of Mexico: Running 2–4°F above average, with pockets exceeding 86°F (30°C)
Western Caribbean: SSTs remain high, particularly around Central America and Cuba
Main Development Region (MDR): Trending warmer than normal with gradual warming expected into late June
This warm ocean water is the primary energy source for hurricanes—and it’s already in place.
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear & Moisture: Storm Barriers Continue to Erode
Atmospheric conditions are shifting in a storm-friendly direction:
Wind shear is weakening in key zones like the Gulf and Caribbean
Moisture levels are rising at both low and mid-levels of the atmosphere
Vertical instability is increasing, supporting larger, longer-lasting thunderstorms
This transition increases the likelihood that disorganized storms could become organized systems.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: Still a Barrier, But Fading
A broad plume of Saharan dust remains in the central and eastern Atlantic, offering temporary protection:
Suppresses convection
Inhibits thunderstorm growth
Raises wind shear and dry air intrusion
However, models show this SAL influence weakening by mid-to-late June, removing one of the final natural inhibitors.
Saharan Air Layer data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Early Clues
Even in the absence of tropical storms, convective activity gives us clues about what's forming:
Western Caribbean & Bay of Campeche: Disorganized clusters of thunderstorms show signs of persistent convection
Southeastern U.S. Coast: Isolated convection associated with the developing non-tropical low
While nothing is organizing yet, this pattern often precedes early-season development.
Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Muggy Mornings, Stormy Afternoons
Expect typical summer conditions today across the state:
North Florida: Highs in the upper 80s, mostly sunny, low humidity
Central Florida: Around 90°F, with isolated thunderstorms after 2 PM
South Florida: Mid-80s, high humidity, with a greater risk of scattered PM storms
Afternoon thunderstorms are normal—but they also signal increasing moisture and instability across the region.
Forecast radar data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Snap and Store
With one system on the radar, now’s a good time to check off a simple but essential task:
📸 Take photos of your home, car, and valuables
☁️ Back up those images to the cloud or email them to yourself
🔒 These photos may be critical for insurance documentation after a storm
Also:
Review your hurricane kit and evacuation plan
Sign up for emergency text alerts from local agencies
Bookmark trusted resources like Cat5Prep.com and hurricanes.gov
Looking Ahead: A Season Starting to Stir
It’s still early in the season, but we’re beginning to see motion on the map:
Warm water and shifting winds are laying the groundwork
The Saharan Air Layer is fading
Thunderstorm activity is creeping into critical regions
Today’s 10% chance of development is low—but it may mark the quiet season’s turning point.
We'll continue tracking changes in the Atlantic and bring you updated guidance each day.
Check back tomorrow for your next hurricane update from Cat5Prep.com.
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