Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 4, 2025: A Flicker on the Horizon
Though no storms are active, key hurricane ingredients are aligning fast. A developing low near the Southeast U.S. and rising SSTs suggest change is coming.
The fourth day of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season opens with quiet skies—but a subtle shift is underway. For the first time this season, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has flagged a potential area of interest offshore the southeastern United States. While development chances remain low, it’s a reminder that conditions are evolving and the atmosphere is beginning to stir.
Atlantic Basin: A New Watch Zone Emerges
As of this morning’s Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC:
No active tropical cyclones
One area of interest off the Southeastern U.S. coast
No tropical development expected in the next 48 hours
Low (10%) chance of development over the next 7 days
A non-tropical low pressure area is forecast to form near or offshore the Southeast U.S. coast.
If it remains offshore, it may gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while drifting northeastward at 10–15 mph.
— NHC Forecaster Reinhart, June 4, 2025
No storm is expected soon—but it’s the first official mention of potential development this season.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Ready for Action
Warm waters across the Atlantic basin continue to deepen—creating an ideal foundation for future storm formation:
Gulf of Mexico: Running 2–4°F above average, with pockets exceeding 86°F (30°C)
Western Caribbean: SSTs remain high, particularly around Central America and Cuba
Main Development Region (MDR): Trending warmer than normal with gradual warming expected into late June
This warm ocean water is the primary energy source for hurricanes—and it’s already in place.
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear & Moisture: Storm Barriers Continue to Erode
Atmospheric conditions are shifting in a storm-friendly direction:
Wind shear is weakening in key zones like the Gulf and Caribbean
Moisture levels are rising at both low and mid-levels of the atmosphere
Vertical instability is increasing, supporting larger, longer-lasting thunderstorms
This transition increases the likelihood that disorganized storms could become organized systems.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: Still a Barrier, But Fading
A broad plume of Saharan dust remains in the central and eastern Atlantic, offering temporary protection:
Suppresses convection
Inhibits thunderstorm growth
Raises wind shear and dry air intrusion
However, models show this SAL influence weakening by mid-to-late June, removing one of the final natural inhibitors.
Saharan Air Layer data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Early Clues
Even in the absence of tropical storms, convective activity gives us clues about what's forming:
Western Caribbean & Bay of Campeche: Disorganized clusters of thunderstorms show signs of persistent convection
Southeastern U.S. Coast: Isolated convection associated with the developing non-tropical low
While nothing is organizing yet, this pattern often precedes early-season development.
Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Muggy Mornings, Stormy Afternoons
Expect typical summer conditions today across the state:
North Florida: Highs in the upper 80s, mostly sunny, low humidity
Central Florida: Around 90°F, with isolated thunderstorms after 2 PM
South Florida: Mid-80s, high humidity, with a greater risk of scattered PM storms
Afternoon thunderstorms are normal—but they also signal increasing moisture and instability across the region.
Forecast radar data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Snap and Store
With one system on the radar, now’s a good time to check off a simple but essential task:
📸 Take photos of your home, car, and valuables
☁️ Back up those images to the cloud or email them to yourself
🔒 These photos may be critical for insurance documentation after a storm
Also:
Review your hurricane kit and evacuation plan
Sign up for emergency text alerts from local agencies
Bookmark trusted resources like Cat5Prep.com and hurricanes.gov
Looking Ahead: A Season Starting to Stir
It’s still early in the season, but we’re beginning to see motion on the map:
Warm water and shifting winds are laying the groundwork
The Saharan Air Layer is fading
Thunderstorm activity is creeping into critical regions
Today’s 10% chance of development is low—but it may mark the quiet season’s turning point.
We'll continue tracking changes in the Atlantic and bring you updated guidance each day.
Check back tomorrow for your next hurricane update from Cat5Prep.com.
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – May 29, 2025: A Calm Before the Storm?
As the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season nears, conditions are aligning for increased activity. Here's today's outlook and what it means for storm development.
As we approach the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, the tropics are offering us a brief moment of calm. As of today, May 29, 2025, there are no active tropical systems in the Atlantic basin. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports no significant disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, or the Gulf of Mexico. But behind this stillness lies a set of powerful climatic conditions primed to ignite what could be a very active hurricane season.
*Data Courtesy of National Hurricane Center
A Season Poised for Action
Earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its seasonal outlook, forecasting a 60% chance of an above-average hurricane season. According to their projections, the Atlantic could see:
13 to 19 named storms
6 to 10 hurricanes
3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger)
These predictions are based on a confluence of environmental indicators—particularly warm sea surface temperatures, neutral ENSO conditions, and weakened trade winds—each contributing to a higher potential for tropical cyclone formation.
Sea Surface Temperatures: The Ocean’s Warning Signal
The ocean is one of the most powerful drivers of hurricane activity, and right now, it's sounding the alarm.
*Data Courtesy of NOAA
Record-Warm Waters in the Atlantic
The North Atlantic is currently experiencing its third-warmest May on record, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) well above seasonal averages. The heat isn't limited to open waters either—the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea are also running unusually warm, creating an extensive reservoir of potential hurricane fuel.
Warm SSTs are a critical component of storm development, providing the energy needed to sustain and intensify tropical systems. Water temperatures of 80°F (27°C) or higher are generally needed to support cyclogenesis, and many areas in the tropical Atlantic are already surpassing this threshold.
Marine Heatwave Near Florida
Perhaps more concerning is the marine heatwave stretching from Florida through the Bahamas and into the western Caribbean. These waters are seeing temperatures typical of mid-summer, not late May, a sign of the accelerating heat trend across global oceans.
This marine heat is already influencing regional weather patterns by:
Increasing humidity levels
Amplifying rainfall intensity
Fueling convective thunderstorms across the southeastern U.S.
These factors don’t directly spawn hurricanes—but they create a more volatile, moisture-rich environment in which tropical disturbances can evolve rapidly once they form.
*Data Courtesy of Coral Reef Watch —Data May Be Delayed
Saharan Dust: Nature’s Fire Extinguisher
While warm seas suggest heightened hurricane potential, one atmospheric feature is acting as a temporary barrier: Saharan dust.
Each year, dust from the Sahara Desert is swept across the Atlantic by strong easterly winds, forming what’s known as the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). This dry, dusty air mass stretches thousands of miles and can significantly inhibit storm development by:
Drying out the mid-level atmosphere
Suppressing cloud formation
Increasing vertical wind shear
This week, a new surge of Saharan dust is drifting over Florida, leading to hazy skies and lowered air quality across the peninsula. While visually striking—especially at sunrise and sunset—the presence of this dust is a temporary check on early-season storm activity.
Meteorologists expect the SAL to weaken in the coming weeks, especially as July and August approach. When that happens, the Atlantic will become more conducive to sustained storm development.
Saharan Dust Data Courtesy of Windy.com
Local Conditions: Florida's East and Gulf Coasts
While the tropics are currently calm, Florida isn’t escaping turbulent weather.
Today, the East and Gulf coasts of Florida are experiencing classic pre-summer instability:
High humidity levels are combining with daytime heating to create strong atmospheric lift
Afternoon thunderstorms are likely, particularly inland, with some storms potentially producing:
Hail
Damaging wind gusts
Frequent lightning
Temperatures are expected to peak in the low 90s (°F) with overnight lows in the low 70s, maintaining high dew points and muggy conditions. This type of weather is not directly related to hurricane activity, but it’s a reminder that the region is entering its most active weather period of the year.
Data Courtesy of Windy.com
Meteorological Factors Influencing the 2025 Season
Several broader climate factors are shaping the hurricane outlook for 2025. Let’s break them down:
ENSO-Neutral Conditions
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase, meaning neither El Niño (which suppresses Atlantic hurricanes) nor La Niña (which enhances them) is present.
This neutral backdrop means that other conditions—like SSTs, wind shear, and moisture availability—will have a stronger influence this year. Historically, ENSO-neutral years can swing either way, but combined with record-warm waters, the scales may tip toward higher activity.
Weakened Trade Winds
Forecast models show weaker-than-average trade winds over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. This is important because strong trade winds often blow potential storms apart before they can organize. In contrast, weaker winds allow storms to build vertically and tap into deep moisture columns—ideal conditions for hurricane formation and intensification.
Dust's Waning Influence
As mentioned earlier, the Saharan dust currently suppressing tropical activity is expected to decline as we head deeper into June and July. With fewer dust outbreaks and a moister atmosphere, the door will open wider for tropical waves emerging off Africa to develop into organized systems—particularly during the peak season from August to October.
Looking Ahead: Time to Prepare
Right now, the Atlantic might seem calm—but all indicators point to an explosive potential for storm activity in the months ahead. This quiet period is an ideal window for preparedness. Make sure to follow our Prep Blog for tips and equipment that are our go-to.
What You Should Do Now
Check your hurricane supply kits. Make sure they include essentials like non-perishable food, water, batteries, flashlights, medications, and pet supplies.
Review your evacuation plan. Know your route, your shelter options, and how to communicate with family members.
Stay informed. Set alerts from trusted sources like:
National Hurricane Center (www.nhc.noaa.gov)
Local weather apps and news stations
NOAA Weather Radio
Follow emerging tropical waves. Just because a storm hasn’t formed yet doesn’t mean the atmosphere isn’t building toward one.
Eyes on the Horizon
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season may be starting slow, but the environmental backdrop suggests this quiet won’t last. Between record-warm waters, a neutral ENSO, weakening dust layers, and favorable wind conditions, we may be on the edge of one of the more active seasons in recent memory.
If you're in a hurricane-prone area, take today’s calm as a gift—and a warning. Use this time to prepare, stay vigilant, and be ready for whatever the skies may bring in the weeks ahead.