Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 18, 2025: Tropics Quiet, But Gulf Moisture Persists
The Atlantic remains free of tropical storms today, but rising ocean heat and evolving atmospheric patterns point to potential development in the coming weeks. Stay prepared with Cat5Prep's daily hurricane outlook.
The Atlantic basin remains relatively quiet as we enter the weekend, with no active tropical cyclones or immediate threats on the map. However, lingering moisture from a weak low in the Gulf of Mexico continues to impact parts of the Southeast with enhanced rain chances. Meanwhile, environmental signals are gradually shifting toward favorability as we move closer to the climatological ramp-up in late July.
Atlantic Basin: Still Quiet, But Watchful
As of this morning’s update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
No active tropical cyclones
No named systems or advisories
No tropical development expected over the next 7 days
The basin remains in a holding pattern—but that may change in the weeks ahead.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Running Hot
Ocean heat content continues to build across key development zones:
Gulf of Mexico: Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain in the mid-to-upper 80s°F (29–31°C), well above average.
Western Caribbean: Waters continue to warm, supporting deep convection.
Main Development Region (MDR): SSTs between Africa and the Caribbean are approaching thresholds that historically support long-track hurricanes.
These conditions set the stage for rapid intensification when tropical systems do form.
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear and Atmospheric Moisture: Becoming More Conducive
While upper-level wind shear remains moderate in parts of the Caribbean and central Atlantic, it is gradually weakening—especially closer to the Gulf. Atmospheric moisture continues to increase:
Mid-level moisture is supporting thunderstorm development
Reduced shear and rising instability create a more supportive environment for potential tropical waves
This combination is worth monitoring as we approach the latter half of July.
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: A Temporary Shield
Dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) remain active over the eastern Atlantic:
SAL suppresses convection by drying out the lower atmosphere
It also enhances wind shear, limiting vertical storm growth
This protective layer typically weakens in August
While it currently limits tropical wave development off Africa, its influence is expected to wane soon.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Gulf Moisture: Lingering Showers, Low Development Risk
A broad area of low pressure and enhanced moisture remains over the northern Gulf of Mexico:
Development chances remain very low
The system is disorganized, with no surface circulation
Still, heavy rain and localized flooding are possible today along the Gulf Coast, particularly in southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and southeastern Louisiana
This disturbance is more of a rainmaker than a tropical threat but illustrates how even weak lows can impact coastal regions.
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Humid and Storm-Prone
Expect classic July conditions across the state:
North Florida: Highs in the low 90s, partly cloudy, isolated afternoon storms
Central Florida: Around 91°F, muggy, with widespread PM storms
South Florida: Mid-to-upper 80s, very humid, storms possible after 2 PM
Local flooding is possible in poor drainage areas due to repeated rounds of heavy showers.
Thunderstorm forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Review Evacuation Zones
Now is the time to double-check your local evacuation zone and routes:
Know whether you're in a surge or flood-prone area
Identify multiple exit routes in case primary roads are closed
Plan ahead for pets, medication, and transportation
Being familiar with your zone before a storm is one of the best preparedness steps you can take.
Looking Ahead: A Quiet Stretch, But a Shift Is Coming
While the tropics are calm for now, the combination of warming waters, weakening wind shear, and deepening atmospheric moisture signals that a transition to a more active pattern is coming.
Expect activity to increase in late July into early August, as the historical ramp-up in hurricane season begins.
Check back tomorrow for the next update from Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 17, 2025: Gulf Disturbance Brings Rain Threat, Development Chances Remain Low
A weak system in the Gulf of Mexico—Invest 93L—is bringing heavy rain and storms to the Gulf Coast. Tropical development remains unlikely, but flooding risks persist. The rest of the Atlantic basin stays quiet… for now.
The Atlantic basin remains free of named tropical cyclones today, but a weak low-pressure system—Invest 93L—continues to bring rain and thunderstorms along parts of the Gulf of Mexico coast. While the system is unlikely to develop into a named storm, the primary concern is heavy rainfall and flash flooding across coastal regions from Florida to Louisiana. The rest of the basin remains quiet, but conditions are slowly trending toward increased activity.
Atlantic Basin: Quiet But Not Completely Clear
As of this morning’s update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
No active tropical cyclones
One area of interest: Invest 93L
Development odds remain low—about 30% over the next 7 days
No other tropical development expected across the Atlantic basin through the week
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Invest 93L: Soaking System Along the Gulf Coast
A disorganized low-pressure area near the northeastern Gulf continues to bring unsettled weather to parts of the Southeast U.S.:
Currently located offshore of the Florida Panhandle
Moving slowly westward toward the central Gulf Coast
Forecast models suggest inland movement into Louisiana or Mississippi by late Wednesday
Tropical development is unlikely due to land interaction and modest wind shear
Main concern:
Heavy rainfall (3–8 inches)
Localized flash flooding
Strong coastal thunderstorms and elevated rip current risk
Active weather alerts courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Fuel Is in Place
Ocean temperatures remain high enough to support development if conditions align:
Gulf of Mexico: 86–88°F in many areas, well above seasonal norms
Western Caribbean: Warm and primed for mid-to-late season activity
Main Development Region (MDR): Gradually warming but still suppressed by dry air
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear and Atmospheric Conditions: Mixed Signals
Wind shear is moderate in the Gulf, which may continue to prevent storm organization
Atmospheric moisture is elevated, helping to support widespread thunderstorm activity
No organized convection in the MDR due to Saharan dry air
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: Still Suppressing the Tropics
A significant plume of dry, dusty air continues to dominate the central and eastern Atlantic:
Disrupts storm cloud development
Introduces additional wind shear
Suppresses convection from African tropical waves
This layer is expected to weaken gradually in late July.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Gulf Coast Soaker
Florida Panhandle to Louisiana: Strong thunderstorms with heavy rain, especially along I-10 corridor
Central Florida: Scattered PM storms with high humidity and muggy conditions
Western Caribbean: Some convective clusters, but disorganized
Thunderstorm forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Humid, Stormy Conditions Persist
North Florida:
Mid to upper 80s, scattered storms possible
Central Florida:Near 90°F with humid air and afternoon thunderstorms
South Florida:Upper 80s, heavy downpours possible after 2 PM
Localized flooding could occur in urban and low-lying areas.
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Stay Flood-Aware
Even weak systems like Invest 93L can cause dangerous flooding. Today’s tip:
Avoid driving on flooded roads
Review local flood zones and evacuation plans
Elevate valuables if you live in a flood-prone area
Sign up for weather alerts from your local emergency management office
Looking Ahead: A Reminder, Not a Threat
Although Invest 93L isn’t expected to strengthen significantly, it’s a good reminder that even weak systems can cause disruption. As we approach the back half of July, forecasters will continue monitoring the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean, where development tends to increase.
Stay informed. Stay ready. And check back tomorrow for your daily update from Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 13, 2025: Tropics Quiet, Gulf Trough Under Watch
No named storms today, but a low-pressure trough drifting toward the Gulf of Mexico could bring rain and potential tropical development later this week.
The Atlantic basin remains calm today, with no active named storms. However, meteorologists are tracking a low-pressure trough emerging off the Southeast U.S. coast, gradually drifting into the Gulf of Mexico. This system has a low (20%) chance of organizing into a subtropical or tropical system later this week .
Atlantic Overview: Quiet But Evolving
As per the 8 AM EDT NHC Tropical Weather Outlook:
No active tropical cyclones across the basin.
The Southeast U.S. trough is expected to push into the Gulf by Tuesday.
Formation chances: <1% in next 48 hours, ~20% over 7 days .
Though not tropical now, its movement may increase rainfall and raise attention if organization begins.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: A Warm Platform
The Gulf of Mexico continues to show SSTs 2–4°F above average, providing a warm environment for storm development later this season.
Caribbean and Main Development Region (MDR) SSTs also remain elevated, keeping hurricane fuel accessible .
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Atmospheric Setup: Suppression in Play
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind shear remains moderately strong across much of the basin, hindering storm development.
Saharan dust is still prevailing over the eastern Atlantic, suppressing early-season storm growth.
Moisture levels are slowly increasing in the Gulf and Southeast U.S., signaling gradual support for convection.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Regional Weather: Rain on the Rise
Expect increased showers and thunderstorms along the Southeast U.S. and Gulf coasts as the trough approaches.
Florida will likely see scattered afternoon storms, typical for July, especially as the trough draws moisture inland.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Be Rainwise
Even without strong winds, heavy rainfall can pose serious hazards:
Track the trough’s movement—it could bring localized flash flooding to Gulf coast areas.
Ensure storm drains and sump pumps are clear and functional.
Keep sandbags and quick barriers ready if you're in low-lying zones.
Test your NOAA Weather Radio and mobile alerts to stay ahead of rainfall warnings.
Looking Ahead: Waters Stay Warm—Storms Could Spark
Although the tropics are peaceful now, the combination of warm ocean temperatures, easing atmospheric inhibitors, and growing seasonal moisture suggest readiness for evolution. The trough may serve as the first spark of Gulf activity, with a watchful eye needed through mid- to late-week.
Stay alert and check back tomorrow for your latest update from Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 17, 2025: Tropics Remain Quiet Despite Peak Heat
The Atlantic basin remains calm with no tropical storms in sight, despite record ocean heat and widespread Saharan dust. Forecasters continue monitoring subtle environmental shifts that could drive activity later this month.
The Atlantic basin remains clear today, with no active tropical cyclones and no tropical development expected over the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 2 AM EDT outlook. Despite intense heating of sea surfaces, climatic factors are currently suppressing system formation.
Atlantic Basin: Calm, But Conditions Are Charged
No tropical cyclones or disturbances are being monitored. The Atlantic basin is experiencing what experts are calling an “unusual lull”—something highlighted recently by the Houston Chronicle, which also noted the ongoing Saharan dust presence suppressing early-season activity.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Fuel Ripe, But Storms Dormant
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Western Caribbean: Waters are hovering near 2°F above average, reaching 84–88°F, akin to early June 2024—an impressively warm baseline for storm development.
Main Development Region (MDR): Also experiencing above-average SSTs, laying the groundwork for future storm growth, though not yet fueling storms.
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Atmospheric Dynamics: Still Holding Back Storms
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind Shear: Remains moderate to high, hindering storm organization across key regions.
Mid-Level Moisture: Slowly increasing, which may support thunderstorm development—but conditions remain insufficient for cyclones.
Saharan Dust Layer: A steady plume of Saharan air continues to suppress convection, reinforcing atmospheric stability across the Atlantic.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Local Showers Only
Florida and much of the Southeast will experience typical midday and afternoon thunderstorms driven by summer heat—not tropical systems. The Caribbean and Atlantic remain clear, with no signs of cluster formation or rotation.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast (Statewide Conditions)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: Rising—classic early-summer humidity
Rain: Scattered afternoon storms likely, locally intense but short in duration
Visibility & Air Quality: Possible haze from Saharan dust in some southern counties
Winds: Light and variable, with stronger gusts near storm cells
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Dust Alert and Kit Check
Today’s calm weather can hide hidden risks from dust and heat. Take action:
Improve indoor air quality: change HVAC filters and open windows carefully
Wear masks or stay indoors if sensitive to dust
Check your hurricane supplies and evacuation plans
Ensure NOAA Weather Radio and mobile alerts are operational
Bookmark trusted sites, like Cat5Prep.com and hurricanes.gov
Looking Ahead: Quiet Doesn't Mean Safe
No tropical development is expected in the next week, but climatological factors suggest the lull is temporary. Warm ocean temperatures and increasing moisture may spark storm formation later in June. Monitor daily updates as conditions evolve.
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 4, 2025: A Flicker on the Horizon
Though no storms are active, key hurricane ingredients are aligning fast. A developing low near the Southeast U.S. and rising SSTs suggest change is coming.
The fourth day of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season opens with quiet skies—but a subtle shift is underway. For the first time this season, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has flagged a potential area of interest offshore the southeastern United States. While development chances remain low, it’s a reminder that conditions are evolving and the atmosphere is beginning to stir.
Atlantic Basin: A New Watch Zone Emerges
As of this morning’s Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC:
No active tropical cyclones
One area of interest off the Southeastern U.S. coast
No tropical development expected in the next 48 hours
Low (10%) chance of development over the next 7 days
A non-tropical low pressure area is forecast to form near or offshore the Southeast U.S. coast.
If it remains offshore, it may gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while drifting northeastward at 10–15 mph.
— NHC Forecaster Reinhart, June 4, 2025
No storm is expected soon—but it’s the first official mention of potential development this season.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Ready for Action
Warm waters across the Atlantic basin continue to deepen—creating an ideal foundation for future storm formation:
Gulf of Mexico: Running 2–4°F above average, with pockets exceeding 86°F (30°C)
Western Caribbean: SSTs remain high, particularly around Central America and Cuba
Main Development Region (MDR): Trending warmer than normal with gradual warming expected into late June
This warm ocean water is the primary energy source for hurricanes—and it’s already in place.
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear & Moisture: Storm Barriers Continue to Erode
Atmospheric conditions are shifting in a storm-friendly direction:
Wind shear is weakening in key zones like the Gulf and Caribbean
Moisture levels are rising at both low and mid-levels of the atmosphere
Vertical instability is increasing, supporting larger, longer-lasting thunderstorms
This transition increases the likelihood that disorganized storms could become organized systems.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: Still a Barrier, But Fading
A broad plume of Saharan dust remains in the central and eastern Atlantic, offering temporary protection:
Suppresses convection
Inhibits thunderstorm growth
Raises wind shear and dry air intrusion
However, models show this SAL influence weakening by mid-to-late June, removing one of the final natural inhibitors.
Saharan Air Layer data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Early Clues
Even in the absence of tropical storms, convective activity gives us clues about what's forming:
Western Caribbean & Bay of Campeche: Disorganized clusters of thunderstorms show signs of persistent convection
Southeastern U.S. Coast: Isolated convection associated with the developing non-tropical low
While nothing is organizing yet, this pattern often precedes early-season development.
Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Muggy Mornings, Stormy Afternoons
Expect typical summer conditions today across the state:
North Florida: Highs in the upper 80s, mostly sunny, low humidity
Central Florida: Around 90°F, with isolated thunderstorms after 2 PM
South Florida: Mid-80s, high humidity, with a greater risk of scattered PM storms
Afternoon thunderstorms are normal—but they also signal increasing moisture and instability across the region.
Forecast radar data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Snap and Store
With one system on the radar, now’s a good time to check off a simple but essential task:
📸 Take photos of your home, car, and valuables
☁️ Back up those images to the cloud or email them to yourself
🔒 These photos may be critical for insurance documentation after a storm
Also:
Review your hurricane kit and evacuation plan
Sign up for emergency text alerts from local agencies
Bookmark trusted resources like Cat5Prep.com and hurricanes.gov
Looking Ahead: A Season Starting to Stir
It’s still early in the season, but we’re beginning to see motion on the map:
Warm water and shifting winds are laying the groundwork
The Saharan Air Layer is fading
Thunderstorm activity is creeping into critical regions
Today’s 10% chance of development is low—but it may mark the quiet season’s turning point.
We'll continue tracking changes in the Atlantic and bring you updated guidance each day.
Check back tomorrow for your next hurricane update from Cat5Prep.com.
*As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – May 29, 2025: A Calm Before the Storm?
As the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season nears, conditions are aligning for increased activity. Here's today's outlook and what it means for storm development.
As we approach the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, the tropics are offering us a brief moment of calm. As of today, May 29, 2025, there are no active tropical systems in the Atlantic basin. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports no significant disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, or the Gulf of Mexico. But behind this stillness lies a set of powerful climatic conditions primed to ignite what could be a very active hurricane season.
*Data Courtesy of National Hurricane Center
A Season Poised for Action
Earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its seasonal outlook, forecasting a 60% chance of an above-average hurricane season. According to their projections, the Atlantic could see:
13 to 19 named storms
6 to 10 hurricanes
3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger)
These predictions are based on a confluence of environmental indicators—particularly warm sea surface temperatures, neutral ENSO conditions, and weakened trade winds—each contributing to a higher potential for tropical cyclone formation.
Sea Surface Temperatures: The Ocean’s Warning Signal
The ocean is one of the most powerful drivers of hurricane activity, and right now, it's sounding the alarm.
*Data Courtesy of NOAA
Record-Warm Waters in the Atlantic
The North Atlantic is currently experiencing its third-warmest May on record, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) well above seasonal averages. The heat isn't limited to open waters either—the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea are also running unusually warm, creating an extensive reservoir of potential hurricane fuel.
Warm SSTs are a critical component of storm development, providing the energy needed to sustain and intensify tropical systems. Water temperatures of 80°F (27°C) or higher are generally needed to support cyclogenesis, and many areas in the tropical Atlantic are already surpassing this threshold.
Marine Heatwave Near Florida
Perhaps more concerning is the marine heatwave stretching from Florida through the Bahamas and into the western Caribbean. These waters are seeing temperatures typical of mid-summer, not late May, a sign of the accelerating heat trend across global oceans.
This marine heat is already influencing regional weather patterns by:
Increasing humidity levels
Amplifying rainfall intensity
Fueling convective thunderstorms across the southeastern U.S.
These factors don’t directly spawn hurricanes—but they create a more volatile, moisture-rich environment in which tropical disturbances can evolve rapidly once they form.
*Data Courtesy of Coral Reef Watch —Data May Be Delayed
Saharan Dust: Nature’s Fire Extinguisher
While warm seas suggest heightened hurricane potential, one atmospheric feature is acting as a temporary barrier: Saharan dust.
Each year, dust from the Sahara Desert is swept across the Atlantic by strong easterly winds, forming what’s known as the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). This dry, dusty air mass stretches thousands of miles and can significantly inhibit storm development by:
Drying out the mid-level atmosphere
Suppressing cloud formation
Increasing vertical wind shear
This week, a new surge of Saharan dust is drifting over Florida, leading to hazy skies and lowered air quality across the peninsula. While visually striking—especially at sunrise and sunset—the presence of this dust is a temporary check on early-season storm activity.
Meteorologists expect the SAL to weaken in the coming weeks, especially as July and August approach. When that happens, the Atlantic will become more conducive to sustained storm development.
Saharan Dust Data Courtesy of Windy.com
Local Conditions: Florida's East and Gulf Coasts
While the tropics are currently calm, Florida isn’t escaping turbulent weather.
Today, the East and Gulf coasts of Florida are experiencing classic pre-summer instability:
High humidity levels are combining with daytime heating to create strong atmospheric lift
Afternoon thunderstorms are likely, particularly inland, with some storms potentially producing:
Hail
Damaging wind gusts
Frequent lightning
Temperatures are expected to peak in the low 90s (°F) with overnight lows in the low 70s, maintaining high dew points and muggy conditions. This type of weather is not directly related to hurricane activity, but it’s a reminder that the region is entering its most active weather period of the year.
Data Courtesy of Windy.com
Meteorological Factors Influencing the 2025 Season
Several broader climate factors are shaping the hurricane outlook for 2025. Let’s break them down:
ENSO-Neutral Conditions
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase, meaning neither El Niño (which suppresses Atlantic hurricanes) nor La Niña (which enhances them) is present.
This neutral backdrop means that other conditions—like SSTs, wind shear, and moisture availability—will have a stronger influence this year. Historically, ENSO-neutral years can swing either way, but combined with record-warm waters, the scales may tip toward higher activity.
Weakened Trade Winds
Forecast models show weaker-than-average trade winds over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. This is important because strong trade winds often blow potential storms apart before they can organize. In contrast, weaker winds allow storms to build vertically and tap into deep moisture columns—ideal conditions for hurricane formation and intensification.
Dust's Waning Influence
As mentioned earlier, the Saharan dust currently suppressing tropical activity is expected to decline as we head deeper into June and July. With fewer dust outbreaks and a moister atmosphere, the door will open wider for tropical waves emerging off Africa to develop into organized systems—particularly during the peak season from August to October.
Looking Ahead: Time to Prepare
Right now, the Atlantic might seem calm—but all indicators point to an explosive potential for storm activity in the months ahead. This quiet period is an ideal window for preparedness. Make sure to follow our Prep Blog for tips and equipment that are our go-to.
What You Should Do Now
Check your hurricane supply kits. Make sure they include essentials like non-perishable food, water, batteries, flashlights, medications, and pet supplies.
Review your evacuation plan. Know your route, your shelter options, and how to communicate with family members.
Stay informed. Set alerts from trusted sources like:
National Hurricane Center (www.nhc.noaa.gov)
Local weather apps and news stations
NOAA Weather Radio
Follow emerging tropical waves. Just because a storm hasn’t formed yet doesn’t mean the atmosphere isn’t building toward one.
Eyes on the Horizon
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season may be starting slow, but the environmental backdrop suggests this quiet won’t last. Between record-warm waters, a neutral ENSO, weakening dust layers, and favorable wind conditions, we may be on the edge of one of the more active seasons in recent memory.
If you're in a hurricane-prone area, take today’s calm as a gift—and a warning. Use this time to prepare, stay vigilant, and be ready for whatever the skies may bring in the weeks ahead.