Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 10, 2025: Multiple tropical waves crossing the Atlantic; development chances gaining
Multiple tropical waves are moving across the Atlantic today, but Saharan dust, wind shear, and dry air are keeping development chances low. Warm ocean temperatures could allow for changes later this week.
Atlantic Basin Overview
TLDR Version; Jump Here
As of this morning, no named tropical cyclones are active in the Atlantic. Several tropical waves are traveling westward across the Main Development Region (MDR), but most are struggling with environmental challenges that limit development. Sea surface temperatures are amply warm, so these waves will continue to be monitored as they move toward more favorable conditions later this week.
Key Systems We’re Watching
Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (~40°W):
Moving west at 10–15 knots with scattered convection. Organization remains limited due to dry air and moderate wind shear. Low chance of development over the next 7 days.Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave (~23°W, off Africa):
Recently emerged from the continent with convection along its southern flank. Battling Saharan dust and dry air, keeping development chances low in the near term, potentially gaining strength in next 7-days.Monsoon Trough Low (~08N44W):
Embedded within the monsoon trough, sparking intermittent thunderstorm activity. No immediate signs of organized development.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Tropical Atlantic
GFS Future 8/18/25 - Curving NE off Coast of US
Euro Future 8/20/25 - Curving NE off Coast of US
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
MDR running 28–29.5°C (82–85°F), with 29–31°C (84–88°F) in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico—plenty of fuel for storms if other conditions improve.Wind Shear:
Moderate to high shear in the central Atlantic is tilting storm structures and preventing vertical stacking of thunderstorms, slowing development.Moisture:
Humidity is increasing in the western tropical Atlantic, but dry air still lingers across much of the MDR.Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
Dry, dusty air extends across the eastern and central MDR, suppressing convection and capping short-term development potential.
Regional Outlooks
Gulf of Mexico:
No organized tropical disturbances. Typical summer thunderstorms will continue along coastal areas.Caribbean Sea:
Fresh trades persist in the south-central basin with occasional showers. No organized systems.U.S. Southeast & Florida:
Hot and humid with scattered sea-breeze thunderstorms each afternoon. No tropical threats expected today.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf
GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean
Looking Ahead (5–10 Days)
The “wave train” from Africa will continue. As SAL weakens and shear pockets relax later this week, one of these waves could encounter a more favorable environment, especially in the central/western MDR.
Prep Reminder
This quiet stretch is the ideal time to review your hurricane plan, restock supplies, and confirm your household communication strategy.
TL;DR – August 10, 2025:
No active storms; several tropical waves in the MDR.
Development chances remain low in the short term due to SAL, wind shear, and patchy moisture.
Warm SSTs mean conditions could turn more favorable later this week. (Chance 70% Dev in next 7-days)
No tropical impacts expected for the U.S. today.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 9, 2025: Quiet Tropics with More Waves Brewing
Tropics stay quiet as Invest 96L weakens, but a fresh African wave is gaining attention with a 30% development chance in the next week. Peak season conditions are setting up.
*TLDR Version, Jump Here!
The Atlantic remains calm, but early signs indicate a potential ramp-up in activity. One tropical wave is weakening, while another emerging off Africa is attracting attention due to improving environmental conditions.
Atlantic Basin Overview
Invest AL96 (Central Atlantic):
The tropical wave associated with AL96 has seen its convection collapse in recent days, largely due to dry, Saharan-influenced air. Development chances remain low at 0–2 days, though gradual organization may become possible in the middle of next week as the system moves northwestward .New African Tropical Wave:
A fresh tropical wave just exiting the African coast has been designated an area of interest. The NHC currently assigns a 30% chance of development over the next 7 days. Long-range models depict a perhaps more favorable environment, suggesting potential development beyond a week and possible impacts in the eastern Caribbean around August 16–17.
Possible hurricane development in the Caribbean newest Tropical Wave. Forecast for around August 20, 2025
Key Environmental Conditions
Seasonal Shift Underway:
Climatologically, the Atlantic heads into its most active phase by mid-August. Increased sea surface temperatures, decreasing wind shear, and waning Saharan dust set the stage for heightened storm activity.
Dust & SAL data from Windy.com
Florida & Coastal Outlook
No threats to land are expected over the next 10 days—including Florida and the continental U.S.—according to current tropical storm patterns and long-range models.
Ripple Effects: Though storm formation is uncertain, increased attention should be paid to rip currents and surf conditions as system trajectories evolve.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
TL;DR – August 9 Snapshot
Invest 96L: Diminishing convection now, slight development possible later next week.
African wave: 30% chance of forming in 7 days; more model support for mid- to late-August activity.
Environment: Conditions are trending more favorable—very warm waters, less dust, easing shear.
Threat to U.S.: None imminent, but upward trend in activity expected ahead.
Stay alert. Peak season is building fast. Visit CAT5Prep.com for updates.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 8, 2025: Dexter Is Now Post-Tropical; Invest 96L Gains Strength
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dexter exits the Atlantic, while Invest 96L shows increasing potential for tropical development. Conditions remain favorable with record-warm waters and weakening Saharan dust.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dexter is moving off into the North Atlantic, fully transitioning into an extratropical system. Meanwhile, tropical wave Invest 96L in the central Atlantic now has a high chance of development, and another system further east offers mid-range development potential.
Atlantic Basin Overview
Dexter has become an expanded, post-tropical storm centered near 41.4° N, 50.4° W
—convection is waning and structure is elongated. (NHC advisory)Invest 96L (tropical wave near ~38° W):
Development chances now stand at 60% within 7 days. Recent observations show disorganized showers, but environmental trends suggest improved potential.New wave along ~38° W with an embedded 1011 mb low around 17° N:
Minimal convection currently, but models indicate conditions may become more favorable later this weekend.
—Chance of development: Low in 48 hours, medium in 7 days.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Remain strongly elevated—2–4 °F above average, with localized hotspots reaching 90 °F—offering ample fuel for future storm growth.
Wind Shear: Still moderate to high in the central tropical Atlantic; however, models suggest gradual easing may occur later in the month.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Though dust continues to suppress early-season convection, its influence is weakening, particularly in the western basin.
Dust & SAL data from Windy.com
Gulf & Caribbean Update
No tropical activity present.
A high-pressure ridge maintains calm, dry conditions across both regions, with only typical late-summer showers in coastal zones.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf of America
GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean
Florida Forecast
Highs: Near 90 °F, with sticky, humid air.
Rain: 40–50% chance of afternoon thunderstorms driven by sea breezes.
Winds: Light and variable; no tropical weather expected.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day
With Invest 96L showing increasing organization potential, now is an excellent time to check:
Hurricane supply kits
Evacuation plans
Emergency alert systems across your household
TL;DR – August 8 Snapshot
Dexter has become post-tropical—no land threat.
Invest 96L: 60% chance of development over the next week.
Another eastern wave: Low immediate risk, medium chance in 7 days.
SSTs warm, SAL draining, shear easing—conditions veering toward more activity.
Stay tuned—peak season is ramping up quickly.
For daily updates, stay locked to Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 6, 2025: Dexter Weakens Over Open Atlantic; Two Systems Now Under Watch
Tropical Storm Dexter continues weakening in the open Atlantic, while two systems—off the Southeast U.S. coast and near Africa—are now under watch. SAL and wind shear are still limiting major development, but warm SSTs raise future potential.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
Tropical Storm Dexter continues moving northeast and weakening, while the National Hurricane Center is now monitoring two additional disturbances—one off the Southeast U.S. coast and another tropical wave across the eastern Atlantic—with modest development potential over the coming week.
Atlantic Basin Status
Tropical Storm Dexter is currently well north of Bermuda, sustained winds near 40–45 mph, moving east-northeast at ~13 mph. It's expected to transition to a post-tropical cyclone by mid-week and present no threat to land.
Disturbance near Southeast U.S. coast (“Invest AL95”): Located offshore of Florida, now has a 40% development chance over the next 7 days. While significant intensification is unlikely, it may bring increased rain and marine impacts along the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coastal areas.
Tropical wave near ~30°W off Africa: Moving west-northwest, scattered convection observed. NHC assigns a 50% chance of development within 7 days, as it enters warmer seas and potentially weaker shear zones.
Key Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Gulf and Caribbean waters remain very warm (29–31 °C), offering the thermal fuel necessary for storm development as conditions evolve.
Wind Shear: Moderate to high shear prevails across much of the central Atlantic, limiting organization of existing systems. Models hint that shear may ease near the western MDR later this month.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): A dry, dusty SAL plume still covers much of the eastern and central Atlantic, suppressing mid- to upper-level moisture and inhibiting thunderstorm persistence.
Atmospheric Moisture: Improving across the western basin, especially near the Caribbean, though heavy dry air remains in many parts of the Atlantic.
Gulf & Caribbean Update
No disturbances in the Gulf or Caribbean seas.
High-pressure dominance maintains generally dry conditions, with scattered showers typical of early August.
Expect stable marine conditions without organized tropical activity.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf of America - Sandwich
GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean - Sandwich
Florida Forecast
Temperature & Humidity: Highs near 90°F under humid, muggy conditions.
Rain Chances: 40–50% for afternoon thunderstorms powered by sea breeze activity—not tropical in nature.
Winds: Light and variable inland, becoming southeast near the coast.
No tropical threats are expected to impact Florida today.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip for the Day: Monitor Beach & Marine Conditions
Though Dexter is offshore, it is generating dangerous rip currents along the U.S. East Coast—from Florida through New England. Stay behavior-aware and heed coastal safety warnings even without landfall forecast.
Outlook
Dexter is weakening but remains watchable over open waters. The disturbance off Florida and the wave from Africa are the two main areas of tropical interest, each with moderate development odds this week. Persistent SAL and shear are still limiting, but conditions may shift toward favorability as August evolves.
TL;DR – August 6 Summary
Dexter weakening, staying over the open Atlantic.
Disturbance near Florida coast: 40% chance of development, may bring rain and marine effects.
Wave off Africa (~30°W): 50% development odds in 7 days.
Warm SSTs support activity, but SAL and wind shear remain inhibitory.
No immediate threats to Florida; hazardous rip currents possible.
Watch conditions as hurricane season builds toward mid‑August.
Stay prepared and stay informed — daily updates available at Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 5, 2025: Dexter Weakening, Two Other Areas Monitored
Tropical Storm Dexter weakens far from land, while two other systems—one off Africa and one near the Southeast U.S.—are being watched. Although development chances remain modest, conditions are expected to become more favorable later this month.
Tropical Storm Dexter is slowly weakening but not yet dissipated, while two additional disturbances now carry up to a 30–50% chance of development within the next week. Environmental conditions remain a limiting factor for most areas, but shift slowly toward greater activity as August progresses.
Atlantic Basin Summary
Tropical Storm Dexter
Located roughly 250–275 miles north-northwest of Bermuda, Dexter has maximum sustained winds near 45 mph and is moving northeast at ~12–15 mph. While it is weakening, it may reintensify as a post-tropical cyclone late this week, posing no direct land threat.
Other Areas Under Watch
A low-pressure area offshore of the Southeast U.S. (Invest AL95) carries a 30% chance of development over 7 days. Slight organization is possible as it moves eastward, but land impacts are unlikely.
A tropical wave near ~30°W off Africa shows scattered convection and is assigned a 50% chance of development within 7 days, reflecting improving model support.
Key Environmental Conditions
*In the upper right corner of the below screens, toggle with the +/- icons
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and MDR waters range between 29–31 °C (84–88 °F)—ample heat energy for storm formation if atmospheric conditions cooperate.Wind Shear:
Wind shear remains moderate to high across much of the Atlantic, especially in the central basin, limiting storm organization despite occasional lower-shear pockets emerging near the western Gulf.Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
A large SAL plume continues across the eastern and central Atlantic. Its dry, dusty air suppresses convection and hampers the vertical growth of tropical disturbances.Moisture:
While mid-level humidity is increasing over the western tropical Atlantic, SAL and shear are keeping much of the central MDR too dry for sustained thunderstorm development.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Overview
No disturbances are currently being monitored.
A stationary front and ridge of high pressure maintain light to moderate winds and calm seas across the Gulf and Caribbean.
Scattered showers remain typical for early August and are not linked to tropical systems.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf
GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean
Florida Forecast
Highs: Near 90 °F with high humidity.
Afternoon thunderstorms: 40–50% chance from sea breeze activity.
Winds: Light and variable inland, shifting southeast near the coast.
No tropical storm impacts are expected today.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day
Make sure your alert systems are working and up-to-date: test county-level emergency alerts, NOAA weather radios, and storm tracking apps. Confirm evacuation plans with household members and review where supplies are stored.
Outlook
Dexter poses no threat to land, but the tropical wave near Africa and Invest off the U.S. Southeast coast warrant close attention. August is historically when activity ramps up; conditions may become more favorable later in the week.
TL;DR – August 5 Snapshot
Tropical Storm Dexter weakening, drifting north but may reintensify offshore.
Two areas monitored: AL95 (30% chance) and African wave (~50% chance) for potential development.
SSTs remain warm, but SAL and wind shear continue to suppress many systems.
No tropical threats to Florida today—just typical summer storms.
Expect activity to increase as August progresses.
Stay ready and informed with daily updates at Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 4, 2025: Tropical Storm Dexter Forms; Two Other Systems Under Watch
Tropical Storm Dexter forms off the East Coast with no land threat. Meanwhile, a tropical wave off Africa and a low near the Southeast U.S. are being monitored as conditions slowly shift toward a more active period.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
Tropical Storm Dexter has developed in the western Atlantic, while two additional systems are being monitored for potential development. Conditions across the basin remain dynamic—with storm formation possible in coming days.
Atlantic Basin Summary
Tropical Storm Dexter: The fourth named storm of the 2025 season formed late Sunday night, now located ~255 miles northwest of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph, and the system is moving east-northeast. It’s expected to remain over open water and become post-tropical by Wednesday with no threat to U.S. land.
Disturbance AL95: A non-tropical low pressure area off the Southeast U.S. coast is being monitored with medium (30%) development chance over 7 days. Movement is east-northeast under weak shear, and formation may remain offshore.
New tropical wave emerging off Africa (~30°W): Forecast to track westward with scattered convection. The formation chance is 50% over 7 days, indicating growing potential for a tropical depression if favorable conditions develop.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
Waters in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and MDR remain warm at 29–31°C (84–88°F)—providing ample energy if atmospheric conditions become supportive.Wind Shear:
Still moderate to high across much of the Atlantic, limiting vertical storm structure. However, shear may relax in the western basin later this month.Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
Persistent dry, dusty air continues to suppress convection, especially over the eastern and central Atlantic. This remains a major inhibiting factor for newly emerging systems.Moisture:
Improving moisture levels seen in the western Caribbean and Gulf, though much of the basin remains too dry for sustained disturbance development.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Region
No tropical systems currently forming.
A dominant high-pressure ridge promotes generally calm, hot conditions across the Gulf and Caribbean.
Scattered showers remain typical for August, with no organized convection tied to tropical disturbances.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf
GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to near 90°F under humid conditions.
Afternoon thunderstorms: 40–50% chance, typically from sea breeze convergence—non-tropical in origin.
Winds: Light and variable inland; southeasterly near the coast.
No tropical storm impacts are expected today.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day
Stay connected to emerging tropical watches and alerts: sign up for NOAA and county-level emergency notifications, test weather radios, and review your communication plans with family or household members.
Looking Ahead
Though Dexter poses no immediate risk to land, the emerging wave and mid-Atlantic trough (AL95) warrant attention. The signal is clear: early August may mark the beginning of a more active period in the tropical Atlantic.
TL;DR – August 4, 2025 Summary
Tropical Storm Dexter forms off the East Coast—staying far offshore and weakest by midweek.
Low pressure (AL95) offshore Southeast U.S. with 30% development chance.
New wave off Africa (~30°W) entering the Atlantic—50% chance of development in 7 days.
SSTs supportive but SAL and shear remain inhibitory.
No threat to Florida; typical summer thunderstorms expected.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 3, 2025: Two Areas Now Under Watch
The Atlantic remains calm with no named storms, but two areas—one off the U.S. coast and another off Africa—are now under watch for potential tropical development. Here's today's scientific hurricane outlook.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
As early August continues, the Atlantic remains without any active tropical cyclones. However, two areas have emerged as brown disturbance watches, as forecasters monitor subtle signs that could impact the Atlantic if conditions shift.
Atlantic Basin Highlights
No active tropical storms in the basin.
Two areas are now under National Hurricane Center scrutiny:
Invest Area AL95: Expected to be a fish storm, it’s a non-tropical low just off the North Carolina coast—producing disorganized thunderstorms. (The orange X on the chart)
➤ Chance of development: Medium (30%) over the next 2–7 days.
➤ Movement: Toward the east-northeast at ~10 mph, expected to stay offshore.Emerging tropical wave off Africa: Near 30°W, forecast to move westward with scattered convection.
➤ Chance of development: Low (30%) within 7 days.
GOES-19 - Sector view: North Atlantic - Sandwich - August 3, 2025
GOES-19 - Sector view: Tropical Atlantic - Sandwich - August 3, 2025
Key Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea remain very warm, with temperatures ranging from 29–31°C (84–88°F). The Main Development Region (MDR) is also running slightly above average. These warm waters provide abundant fuel for tropical development — if other atmospheric factors allow.Wind Shear:
Moderate to high vertical wind shear persists across the central Atlantic, particularly along the latitude band where Disturbance 2 is located. This disrupts the vertical alignment of developing systems and limits the ability of convection to consolidate around a center.Moisture:
Mid-level moisture is gradually increasing across the western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. However, the central Atlantic remains drier overall, especially in areas affected by Saharan dust, limiting deep convection and thunderstorm persistence.Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
A robust SAL is sweeping across the central and eastern Atlantic, characterized by dry, dusty air and suppressed vertical motion. The SAL also contributes to a stable atmosphere, effectively capping thunderstorm development and working against tropical wave organization.
Implication for Disturbance 2:
While ocean temperatures are favorable, the combined influence of high wind shear, limited moisture, and widespread SAL intrusion is expected to stall or inhibit further development of Disturbance 2 as it continues westward across the tropical Atlantic. Until it reaches a more favorable environment, organization remains unlikely.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Region
No disturbances active in the Gulf, and high-pressure conditions support light winds and minimal rain outside normal sea‑breeze showers.
Eastern Caribbean: A wave near 68°W is producing localized storms over Hispaniola and Venezuela but remains disorganized.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf of America - Sandwich - August 3, 2025
GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean - Sandwich - August 3, 2025
Florida Weather Outlook
Highs: Near 90 °F under sticky, humid conditions.
Conditions: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms from sea breeze interactions.
No tropical impacts expected today.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Know Your Warning Signals
Test your alert systems today:
Confirm subscription to NOAA alerts and local county emergency systems.
Test NOAA weather radios and storm tracker apps.
Make sure household members know hurricane communication plans and locations of essential documents.
Outlooking Ahead
Invest Area AL95, while moving away from land, bears watching if it gains tropical characteristics. Meanwhile, the wave off Africa will pass into warmer waters—another early‑August indicator. Meteorological models forecast these systems might strengthen if wind shear declines and dust regresses later this month.
TL;DR – August 3 Hurricane Summary
No storms currently in the Atlantic basin.
AL95 (off North Carolina): 30% chance of development over the next week. (Fish Storm)
African wave near 30°W: 20% chance of development within 7 days.
Factors are currently favoring disorganization.
SSTs are warm and moisture is increasing—conditions may improve in early August.
Immediate risk remains low; now is a good window for storm preparedness.
Stay alert and ready with daily forecasts at Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 2, 2025: Watching Waves, But No Storms Expected
The Atlantic remains calm to start August, with no storms expected this week. A few tropical waves are being monitored, but dry air and wind shear continue to suppress development—for now.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
As we settle into early August, the Atlantic remains quiet—no active tropical systems and no development forecasted over the next seven days. Although several tropical waves continue moving westward, persistent upper-level wind shear and Saharan dust limit their potential for organization.
Atlantic Basin Summary
Latest NHC Tropical Weather Scales:
The 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook confirms no systems expected to form within seven days.
Multiple tropical waves are active:
A wave near 43–50°W with scattered convection.
A new wave moving off Africa near 30°W, gradually tracking westward.
None display organized circulation or development potential at this time.
Satellite imagery provided by Windy.com
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
29–31 °C (84–88 °F) across the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.
MDR temperatures remain slightly above average, offering rising energy for late-season storms.
Wind Shear:
Still moderate to high across much of the basin, inhibiting vertical growth.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
Thick dry air layer continues across most of the MDR, suppressing convection and storm development.
Atmospheric Moisture:
Gradually increasing in the western Atlantic and Caribbean—monitoring for signs of improved convective support.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Region
No disturbances currently monitored.
A dominant high-pressure ridge maintains light winds and calm seas.
Scattered showers along Florida’s west coast remain typical summer moisture—not tropical in origin.
Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F with high humidity.
Rain Chances: 40–50% for scattered afternoon thunderstorms due to seabreeze convergence.
Winds: Light and variable.
No tropical threats expected in Florida today.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Seasonal Outlook
The Atlantic season to date includes three named storms (Andrea, Barry, and Chantal), but lacks any hurricanes—a below-average ACE, echoing early-season inactivity last seen in 2009.
NOAA and CSU continue to forecast above-average hurricane activity overall, with 13–19 named storms and 6–10 hurricanes anticipated this season.
August typically marks the ramp-up of tropical activity, especially across the MDR and Gulf of Mexico, where conditions may become more favorable by mid-month.
Prep Tip of the Day: Verify Your Alert Setup
Now is a good time to:
Confirm you’re registered with local emergency alert systems.
Test NOAA weather radios and app notifications.
Re-check family communication plans and emergency kit locations.
Looking Ahead
While the forecast remains calm now, early August often brings the first major shifts in seasonal activity. Keep tracking tropical waves as they approach warmer waters and potentially lower shear environments.
TL;DR – August 2, 2025 Hurricane Summary
No active storms or developing systems in the Atlantic.
Several tropical waves are present but remain weak and disorganized.
High wind shear and Saharan dust continue to suppress development.
Sea surface temperatures are high and rising.
Historical patterns suggest increased activity may begin in mid‑August.
Stay prepared and stay informed with daily updates from Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 1, 2025: Quiet Tropics, Conditions Gradually Shifting
No storms expected as August begins, but multiple tropical waves are being tracked. Conditions are evolving and a shift toward higher hurricane activity is expected in the coming weeks.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
As we enter August—historically the onset of peak Atlantic hurricane activity—there are no active tropical cyclones and no development expected over the next seven days. However, several tropical waves are moving westward, and environmental conditions are slowly transitioning toward a more favorable pattern for storm formation later in the month.
Atlantic Basin Overview
According to the 8:00 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) from the National Hurricane Center:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days WikipediaNational Hurricane Center
While no waves are currently listed as having development potential, multiple waves are traversing the eastern Atlantic.
Tropical Waves & Deep Tropics
Forecast models highlight several waves across the Atlantic, though none show organization yet:
A wave near 43–50°W, moving west at ~10–15 kt, producing scattered convection.
Another wave near 30°W, just moving off Africa, with intermittent thunderstorms.
These waves will be closely monitored as they enter warmer waters and encounter decreasing wind shear.
Environmental Conditions Snapshot
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean: 29–31 °C (84–88 °F), sustaining high energy potential.
MDR: Slightly above-average values, but cooling compared to June trends .
Wind Shear:
Elevated across the Caribbean and central Atlantic—a limiting factor in early July—but gradual easing is forecast by mid-August.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
Persistent dry air suppressing convection across most of the MDR, but expected to weaken soon.
Atmospheric Moisture:
Enhanced moisture is slowly building in the western Atlantic, improving potential for organized convection.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Conditions
No disturbances are being tracked.
A dominant high-pressure ridge produces stable flow across both basins.
Offshore marine conditions remain calm, with scattered showers typical for this time of year.
Gulf of America (Mexico)
Caribbean
Florida Forecast
Highs: Low 90s °F, sticky and humid.
Precipitation: Scattered afternoon storms driven by afternoon heating and sea breeze convergence.
Winds: Light and variable inland, shifting southeast near the coast.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Bookmark Tropical Outlook Sources
With activity still weeks away:
Confirm you can receive alerts from the National Hurricane Center.
Bookmark reliable sources such as Cat5Prep.com.
Ensure household members know where your hurricane documents and kits are stored.
Outlook
No cyclone formation is expected this week, but climatology and model trends suggest early-to-mid August could mark the beginning of increased tropical activity. The bulk of Atlantic season activity historically occurs after August 1, with the first hurricane typically forming around August 11.
TL;DR – August 1, 2025 Atlantic Forecast
No active or developing storms in the basin.
Several tropical waves tracked, none organized.
SSTs are warm; shear and SAL still suppressive.
A shift toward higher activity likely in early August.
Today is a good day to finalize hurricane plans and stay alert.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 31, 2025: Tropics Active But No Storms on the Horizon
Tropical waves continue to move across the Atlantic, but none show signs of organization. Saharan dust and wind shear are keeping storm development in check—for now.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
The Atlantic basin continues to host several tropical waves—but none are expected to organize into tropical cyclones over the next seven days. Despite warm seas and increasing moisture, wind shear and Saharan dry air maintain a suppressive environment.
Atlantic Basin Summary
As of the 8:00 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) from the National Hurricane Center, there are:
No active tropical cyclones.
No areas under investigation for development in the next 48 hours or seven days.
The Tropical Weather Discussion (issued at ~12:15 UTC) reveals:
A tropical wave near 43°W (south of 22°N) moving westward at 10–15 kt, with scattered moderate convection between 4–10°N.
Another wave near 55°W (south of 18°N) moving west at about 10 kt, with minimal convection.
These waves are being monitored but show no organized structure or circulation at present.
Key Weather Factors
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
Across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and MDR, SSTs range from 29–31 °C (84–88 °F)—values supportive of tropical development if atmospheric conditions improve.
Wind Shear:
Remains moderate to high across most of the Atlantic basin, limiting vertical development of disturbances.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
Dry and dusty air persists across the central and eastern Atlantic, suppressing convection in the MDR.
Atmospheric Moisture:
While moisture is gradually increasing near the Caribbean and western tropical Atlantic, the dry air and shear continue to hinder system organization.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Region
No low-pressure areas or disturbances are being tracked.
A dominating high-pressure ridge supports generally light winds and calm seas across the Gulf and Caribbean.
Offshore rainfall remains typical for this time of year—no tropical impacts on the Florida peninsula.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf of America - Sandwich
GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean - Sandwich
Florida Forecast
High temperatures: Near 90 °F under humid conditions.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms: 40–50% likelihood due to sea breeze convergence.
Winds: Light and variable inland; east-southeasterly along the coast.
Precipitation: Not driven by tropical systems.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Preparation Tip: Review Your Evacuation Plan
Take advantage of the lull to finalize your hurricane readiness:
Verify evacuation zones and travel routes.
Confirm alert registration with local and state emergency systems.
Update contact information and checklist locations with household members.
Outlook & Future Signal
Although today’s conditions remain tranquil, the ongoing wave train emerging from Africa and gradually improving moisture and SST profiles suggest that rainfall and organization potential may increase in early August.
TL;DR – July 31, 2025 Snapshot
No tropical systems present.
Two tropical waves travel west, but show none of the structure needed for development.
Strong wind shear and Saharan dust continue to suppress storm formation.
Warm waters and increased moisture hint at higher activity potential in August.
Stay informed and prepare while the pace allows. Daily updates continue at Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 30, 2025: Development Chances Remain Low
As July ends, the Atlantic Basin sees active tropical waves, but development chances remain low for the next 7 days. Discover the latest on sea surface temperatures, wind shear, Saharan Air Layer, and the outlook from CAT5Prep.com.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
** Due to technical issues on the GOES satellite imagery provider's end, we are currently unable to display real-time satellite imagery.
The Atlantic Basin remains active with multiple tropical waves stretching from the African coast to the Caribbean, yet no organized development is expected in the near term. Wind shear and Saharan dust continue to suppress cyclone formation despite warm ocean temperatures and a moistening atmosphere in the western basin.
As we close out July, conditions are slowly trending toward a more favorable setup for storm development heading into August.
Atlantic Basin Overview
As of the 8:00 AM EDT NHC Tropical Weather Outlook:
No active tropical cyclones.
Three tropical waves span the Atlantic:
Wave near 35°W (eastern Atlantic): Disorganized, little convection.
Wave near 50°W (central Atlantic): Producing scattered thunderstorms, no surface low.
Wave in the eastern Caribbean: Weak and encountering dry air and shear.
NHC Development Odds:
Next 48 hours: 0%
Next 7 days: 0%
Key Environmental Factors
SST data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind data at 850hPa from Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
29–31°C (84–88°F) in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.
MDR remains slightly warmer than normal.
Wind Shear:
Moderate across the central Atlantic and Caribbean.
Suppressing vertical development for now.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
Strong dry air across much of the basin.
Limiting convection and keeping tropical waves disorganized.
Moisture:
Gradually increasing in the western Atlantic and Caribbean.
A factor to monitor as wind shear begins to ease.
Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America)
A weak surface trough in the central Gulf is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
No signs of organization, and the NHC does not expect development at this time.
High pressure remains dominant elsewhere, with calm conditions expected through midweek.
Florida Weather
Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with high humidity.
Scattered thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening from sea breeze interactions.
No tropical threats to Florida at this time.
Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Outlook & Preparedness
The Atlantic remains broadly quiet for now, but the environment is slowly shifting. A steady wave train emerging off Africa and increasingly favorable SSTs point to a more active window in early to mid-August.
Now is the time to double-check hurricane kits, review evacuation zones, and prepare while the weather allows.
TL;DR – July 30 Snapshot
No tropical development expected this week.
Three tropical waves are present but remain weak and disorganized.
SAL and shear are limiting development.
Conditions should become more favorable by early August.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 29, 2025: Active Waves, Quiet Forecast
Several tropical waves are moving across the Atlantic, but none show signs of imminent development. Warm waters persist, and August may bring change.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
Though the Atlantic basin remains free of tropical cyclones, several tropical waves are shifting across the ocean—each monitored for organization. Conditions remain broadly unfavorable for development, but the warm ocean and evolving atmospheric patterns suggest potential change in the weeks ahead.
Atlantic Basin: No Cyclones, But Several Waves in Motion
According to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center does not expect any tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days. However, recent Tropical Weather Discussion reveals:
A tropical wave near 19°W (south of 19°N), moving westward at about 10 kt, with scattered convection between 10°N–13°N and east of 23°W.
Another wave near 38°W, south of 18°N, moving slowly (~5 kt), associated with a 1012 mb low. A scatterometer pass noted fresh to strong winds within 120 nm and scattered convection between 5°N–12°N.
None of these features currently exhibit a closed circulation or organization, but their movement into warmer waters bears monitoring.
Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean: Calm Signals, Minimal Development Risk
No disturbances are being tracked in the Gulf at this time.
Surface analyses and satellite imagery show mostly typical trade-wind patterns and minor convection near Central America and the Windward Passage.
A dominant high-pressure ridge maintains light to moderate winds and minimal seas across most of the region.
Environmental Snapshot: Barriers Remain, Fuel Accumulating
Sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean are well above average, delivering ample heat energy for potential development in early August.
The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) continues to suppress convection in the eastern Atlantic. Convection in tropical waves remains shallow and short-lived.
Upper-level wind shear remains moderate to high, especially over the central MDR, limiting vertical storm organization.
SST data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Late-July Heat & Afternoon Storms
Highs across central and south Florida: Near 90–92 °F under humid conditions.
Rain chance: 40–50% with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms fueled by sea-breezes and daytime heating.
Wind conditions: Light and variable inland, becoming east-southeasterly near the coast.
No tropical impacts are anticipated over the next 24 hours.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Keep Monitoring Those Waves
Even when storms don’t form, their precursors still matter:
Review evacuation zones and routes now—not during an emergency.
Check the status of local email lists or alert systems for tropical watches.
Confirm your household has working weather radios and updated contact lists.
Looking Ahead: August May Bring Increased Activity
While development is unlikely in the next 5–7 days, the combination of:
Warm ocean temperatures,
Decreasing wind shear projections, and
Multiple tropical waves entering the MDR
suggests the system is slowly shifting toward a more favorable environment as August begins.
TL;DR
Flood‑ready outlook for July 29, 2025
No tropical cyclones in the basin; no development expected this week.
Two tropical waves showing scattered convection—watching for mid‑Atlantic changes.
Warm Gulf and Caribbean waters offer fuel if shear and dry air ease up.
Florida sees typical summer weather—heat and scattered afternoon storms.
Prep recommendation: finalize hurricane plans, stay informed, remain ready.
For full updates, continue visiting Cat5Prep.com daily.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 28, 2025: Waves Active, Tropics Stable for Now
Tropical waves are stirring across the Atlantic, but no development is expected over the next 7 days. Warm waters and weakening wind shear suggest conditions could shift heading into August.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
As the final days of July unfold, the Atlantic basin remains active with several tropical waves but no immediate threats. While sea surface temperatures and atmospheric moisture continue to support development, upper-level wind shear and dry air are keeping conditions broadly stable—though this pattern may shift as we enter August.
Atlantic Basin: Multiple Waves, No Cyclones (Yet)
As of 8:00 AM EDT from the National Hurricane Center:
No active tropical cyclones
Two tropical waves are under watch:
Tropical Wave 1: Located near 40°W, moving westward at 10–15 kt with scattered convection. Still disorganized but under observation.
Tropical Wave 2: Recently emerged off Africa near 23°W, with convection along its southern flank. It’s embedded in a moist environment and will be monitored for future development.
No development expected over the next 7 days, but long-range models suggest increasing favorability for late next week.
Gulf of Mexico: Moisture Returns, But No Development
A weak surface trough lingers in the Bay of Campeche, producing isolated showers and thunderstorms.
No signs of tropical development at this time.
Expect scattered showers and storms across the eastern and central Gulf through Tuesday, driven by daytime heating and lingering mid-level moisture.
Caribbean Sea: Typical Summer Conditions
Fresh to strong trades continue in the central and southwest Caribbean, particularly off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela.
Some isolated thunderstorms are active near Panama and the Windward Passage.
A tropical wave moving through the eastern Caribbean is enhancing convection, but remains disorganized.
Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR): Slowly Activating
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs):
MDR: 28–29°C (82–84°F), well above climatological norms.
Gulf and Caribbean: 30–31°C (86–88°F), fuel-ready.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Dry air continues to suppress convection over much of the MDR, but signs show it is beginning to weaken, allowing thunderstorm clusters to persist longer.
Wind shear: Still present in the central Atlantic, but trending downward.
SST data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Outlook: Typical Late-July Storms
North Florida: Partly sunny with highs in the upper 80s. Afternoon storms possible.
Central Florida: Hot and humid (highs ~91°F) with scattered PM thunderstorms likely.
South Florida: Muggy with highs in the upper 80s. Thunderstorms expected after 2 PM.
Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Inventory Your Storm Gear
Now is a good time to audit your hurricane kit:
Check expiration dates on food, batteries, and meds.
Reassess your generator fuel supply and run a quick test.
Confirm family members know where the supplies are stored.
Looking Ahead: Eyes on Early August
While July is ending quietly, model ensembles hint at better organization potential in the MDR during the first 7–10 days of August.
A Kelvin wave (a burst of upper-level moisture and instability) may traverse the Atlantic next week, setting the stage for more robust wave activity.
TL;DR – July 28, 2025 Hurricane Snapshot
No active storms or tropical depressions
Two tropical waves being watched, neither near development
Gulf and Caribbean: Moist, unsettled, but not organized
MDR: Warm and slowly transitioning to a more favorable pattern
Florida: Classic summer pattern — hot, humid, and stormy afternoons
Outlook: Low risk this week, but August may bring change
Stay informed at Cat5Prep.com, and use this calm to finalize your preparations.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 27, 2025: Calm Conditions Continue Despite Active Waves
The tropics stay quiet on July 27, 2025, but tropical waves in the deep Atlantic are being closely monitored. No development is expected in the next 7 days, but changes could come as we approach August.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
The Atlantic basin remains free of named storms this morning, with no tropical cyclone formation expected over the next seven days. However, meteorologists are closely monitoring several tropical waves in the deep eastern Atlantic that could signal a developing pattern as we head into August.
Atlantic Basin: Quiet—but Watchful
No active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that no tropical development is expected over the next 7 days.
Tropical waves in the eastern and central Atlantic continue to be monitored for organization.
Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean: No Significant Activity
No low-pressure disturbances currently under watch.
Conditions in the Gulf remain stable, with typical afternoon thunderstorms but no signs of tropical development.
Lower Caribbean waters remain under fresh easterly trade winds, with rather isolated convection near Central America.
Tropical Waves: Deep Atlantic Features to Monitor
According to the NHC’s Tropical Weather Discussion:
A tropical wave near 27°W (south of 17°N) is moving west at ~10 kt, with scattered moderate convection noted between 5°N and 9°N.
A stronger wave near 54°W (south of 22°N) is moving west at 15–20 kt, with scattered convection between 5°N–23°N.
An area of low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough near 8°N44°W is also aiding scattered convection but remains disorganized.
None of these systems currently have the structure required for classification, but they inhabit regions where sea surface temperatures and wind shear may soon become more conducive to development.
Environmental Conditions Snapshot
The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) remains strong across the eastern Atlantic, suppressing mid-level moisture and convection.
Wind shear in the central Atlantic remains moderate to high, limiting tropical organization—though forecasts suggest a gradual reduction heading into early August.
Sea surface temperatures across the Main Development Region (MDR) remain above average, providing energy should conditions improve later this month.
Dust & SAL data from Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs around 90 °F with coastal humidity making it feel hotter.
Rain Chance: 40–50% for scattered afternoon thunderstorms driven by sea breeze convergence.
Winds: Light and variable, shifting to southeasterly in the afternoon.
No tropical impacts expected today.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Check Your Weather Apps and Alerts
While the tropics are quiet, confirming your local alert settings and weather tool readiness can make all the difference:
Enable push notifications for National Hurricane Center advisories.
Confirm alert registration with your county emergency system.
Test weather apps and bookmarks on all household phones and devices.
Looking Ahead: August May Bring Change
Though today’s conditions remain tranquil, the presence of several tropical waves moving into warmer Atlantic waters—combined with weakening Saharan dust and decreasing wind shear—suggest a gradual shift toward a more active setup. Historically, the first week of August often kicks off heightened tropical activity.
Stay alert. Stay ready. Daily Atlantic updates from Cat5Prep.com.
TL;DR
Atlantic Hurricane Forecast for July 27, 2025
No tropical storms are expected this week — the Atlantic remains quiet.
Three tropical waves are being monitored across the basin. None are showing strong signs of development yet.
Sea surface temperatures are hot and rising — especially in the Gulf and Caribbean — setting the stage for activity in August.
Wind shear and dry air (Saharan dust) continue to limit development for now.
Florida and the Gulf Coast: Typical summer weather—hot, humid, and scattered afternoon storms.
Prep Tip: Now is the time to stock up on essentials and finalize your hurricane communication plan.
No immediate threats, but stay alert. The quiet won’t last forever.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 26, 2025: Gulf Moisture Lingers, Deep Tropics Show Early Signs of Change
Moisture continues to stream into Texas and Louisiana from the Gulf, while tropical waves in the deep Atlantic hint at a pattern shift. No named storms yet, but conditions are slowly becoming more favorable.
The Atlantic basin remains free of any named tropical cyclones, but not without activity. A persistent disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico continues to funnel tropical moisture into parts of Texas and Louisiana, while multiple tropical waves in the deep Atlantic are stirring early signals of future development.
This mid-season quiet is not unusual—but subtle shifts are beginning to show across the basin. As we approach August, conditions will slowly lean more favorable for storm formation.
Gulf of Mexico: Persistent Moisture, Low Development Potential
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR – GOES-19 Air Mass Composite – July 26, 2025 (Gulf)
A weak surface trough remains in the western Gulf of Mexico, associated with disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Current Status: No surface circulation, limited upper-level support
Rain Impacts: Coastal Texas and Louisiana remain under intermittent showers and thunderstorms through the weekend
Development Chance: Still near 0%—but the system is being monitored for changes
Elsewhere in the Gulf, conditions remain stable, with light to moderate winds and seas of 2–5 ft across most zones.
Tropical Waves: Marching Westward, Holding Potential
Several tropical waves remain active in the central and eastern Atlantic:
Wave near 40°W: Moving west at ~10–15 kt, producing scattered convection. Still disorganized but in warm waters with marginal wind shear.
Wave near 23°W (off Africa): Embedded in the monsoon trough. Convection flaring along southern flank; too early for development but bears watching.
None of these waves currently show signs of imminent organization, but they are tracking into warmer waters and a slowly improving environment.
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR – GOES-19 Sandwich Composite – July 26, 2025 (Tropical Atlantic)
Sea Surface Temperatures: Primed for August
Gulf of Mexico: 86–88°F across most areas
Caribbean Sea: Upper 80s°F, especially in the western basin
Main Development Region (MDR): 82–84°F, 1–2°F above average
The Atlantic remains historically warm, a key ingredient for fueling tropical cyclones as we near peak season.
SST data courtesy of Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Gradual Shift Unfolding
Wind Shear: Still moderate in the central Atlantic, but weakening trends are forecast
Moisture: Mid-level moisture increasing, especially south of 20°N
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Still active, but thinning between 35°W–50°W
These slow, quiet changes signal a transition to a more favorable setup in early August.
Dust & SAL data from Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Today’s Weather:
High: 90°F
Conditions: Partly sunny, humid
Storm Risk: Scattered inland thunderstorms after 2 PM
Winds: Light and variable
Prep Reminder: Monitor drainage around your property during afternoon storms
Rain forecast data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Check Local Shelters & Pet Plans
Locate your nearest hurricane shelter—especially if you're new to your area
Identify which shelters allow pets (many do, but require pre-registration)
Add leash, crate, and vaccination documents to your go-kit
Looking Ahead: Window of Quiet Before August Heats Up
Although no named systems are expected in the next 5–7 days, the setup across the basin is gradually shifting. The Gulf disturbance remains weak, but new tropical waves are aligning with less hostile conditions.
This is the time to finalize your hurricane supplies, prep your property, and stay informed.
Check back tomorrow for another update from Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 25, 2025: Gulf Disturbance Monitored, Basin Remains Broadly Quiet
Stay updated on the Atlantic hurricane season: July 25, 2025. A weak Gulf disturbance brings rain to Texas & Louisiana, while the broader Atlantic remains quiet with no immediate threats. Prepare now for August!
As we close out the final week of July, the Atlantic basin remains broadly quiet. The only area of interest remains a weak disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico, which continues to produce showers but shows little sign of organizing. Elsewhere, several tropical waves are making their westward march across the Atlantic, but no significant development is expected in the short term.
Gulf of Mexico: Weak Trough Brings Rain, Low Development Risk
A surface trough remains draped across the western Gulf of Mexico, generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms—particularly offshore of Texas and Louisiana.
The disturbance remains disorganized, with no closed low-level circulation.
Wind shear and surrounding dry air continue to limit development potential.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this system a low (10%) chance of development over the next 7 days.
However, heavy downpours and localized flooding remain possible across parts of coastal Texas and southwestern Louisiana today.
This weak trough is expected to gradually dissipate as it moves slowly westward.
Atlantic Basin: Multiple Waves, No Immediate Threats
The broader Atlantic remains seasonally active with several tropical waves but no current threats:
Tropical wave near 50°W: Moving westward with scattered convection; not showing signs of organization.
New wave near 23°W, just off the coast of Africa: Tracking westward along the monsoon trough with convection near its southern flank.
A weak low embedded in the monsoon trough near 08N44W is helping spark convection but lacks any closed circulation.
None of these features show signs of imminent development, though they will be monitored closely in the coming days.
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR – GOES-19 Air Mass Composite – July 25, 2025
Sea Surface Temperatures & Atmospheric Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) across the Gulf of Mexico and Main Development Region (MDR) remain well above average, supplying ample fuel for tropical development later this season.
Wind Shear remains moderate in the central and western Atlantic, limiting near-term organization.
The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) continues to suppress convection across much of the eastern Atlantic, especially north of the MDR.
Dust & SAL data from Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Typical Summer Pattern
Today’s outlook for Central Florida includes:
Highs in the low 90s°F (32–34°C)
Humidity: High, with heat indices nearing the upper 90s
Rain Chances: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms, driven by sea breeze and daytime heating
Winds: Light and variable, shifting southeast in the afternoon
No tropical impacts are expected for Florida at this time.
Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Review Your Evacuation Routes
Use this quiet period to refresh your storm plan:
Know your local evacuation zones
Map out primary and alternate routes
Keep a printed copy in your emergency kit in case power or cell service goes down
Share your plan with family or household members
Looking Ahead: Tropics Likely to Awaken in August
While the Atlantic basin remains quiet for now, the underlying signals—record SSTs, westward-moving waves, and easing shear—suggest a more favorable environment could emerge as we enter August. Stay alert, stay prepared, and keep checking in for daily updates.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 24, 2025: Gulf Disturbance Monitored as Tropics Remain Broadly Quiet
A weak disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico brings rain to the Gulf Coast, but tropical development chances remain low. Meanwhile, the broader Atlantic remains quiet.
As we near the close of July, the Atlantic remains largely stable, but the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a weak disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico for any signs of development. While conditions remain broadly unfavorable for rapid formation, subtle shifts in the atmosphere suggest we’re approaching a more active phase of the season.
Atlantic Basin: Broad Stability, But Eyes on the Gulf
As of the 8:00 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is reporting:
No active tropical cyclones
One disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico with low development chances
No tropical cyclone formation expected elsewhere over the next 7 days
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR – GOES-19 Air Mass Composite – July 24, 2025
Gulf of Mexico: Surface Trough Brings Rain, Low Development Risk
A broad surface trough located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms. While upper-level winds remain hostile to development, the NHC notes this system could persist for several days as it drifts slowly westward.
Formation chance (7 days): Low (near 10%)
Main impacts: Localized heavy rain along portions of the Gulf Coast (especially Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama)
Conditions: Disorganized thunderstorm activity, no defined surface circulation
Expect periodic showers and thunderstorms over coastal waters and possible heavy rainfall inland through the weekend.
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Caribbean Sea: Breezy Trades, Typical Mid-Summer Weather
No disturbances of concern
Fresh easterly trade winds dominate the central and southern basin
Scattered convection near the coasts of Central America (Panama, Nicaragua) due to the East Pacific Monsoon Trough
Seas remain moderate, with wave heights of 4 to 7 feet in open waters.
Wind forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Wave height forecast (ECMWF Waves) courtesy of Windy.com
Atlantic Tropical Waves: Multiple Waves Marching West
GOES-19 - Sector view: Tropical Atlantic - Sandwich - July 24, 2025
Several tropical waves are present across the Atlantic:
Central Atlantic Wave (~35W): Slowly advancing west with scattered convection, no signs of organization yet.
New Wave Near 23W (Far East Atlantic): Recently introduced by the NHC; embedded within the monsoon trough, showing convective activity near its southern flank.
Low Near 08N44W: Part of the broader monsoon trough; helping to enhance scattered thunderstorms but remains disorganized.
These features will be monitored over the next 7–10 days as they move into warmer waters and potentially more favorable conditions.
850 hPa wind data courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Dry Air Suppressing Growth
The Saharan dust plume continues to stretch across the central Atlantic, limiting tropical development by reducing moisture and increasing wind shear. However, long-range forecasts suggest the SAL may begin to thin as we move into August, potentially opening the door for more development.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust data courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Hot and Getting Hotter
Ocean temps across the basin remain above average:
Gulf of Mexico: 30–31°C (86–88°F)
Caribbean Sea: 29–30°C (84–86°F)
Main Development Region (MDR): 28–29°C (82–84°F)
These conditions are supportive of development—but only if wind shear and dry air ease.
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs: 89–91°F
Rain Chance: 50–60%, mainly afternoon thunderstorms driven by seabreeze interaction
Winds: Light southeast winds
Hazards: Isolated downpours, brief gusty winds
Rain forecast data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Review Your Local Evacuation Zone
During quiet days, take time to review your local evacuation maps and zones:
Know when you would leave and where you’d go.
Print hard copies in case cell service fails.
Share your plan with family and neighbors.
Find evacuation information from your county emergency management office or state disaster preparedness website.
Looking Ahead: A Turn Toward Activity?
While the current atmosphere is keeping storms at bay, sea temperatures and tropical wave activity suggest a transition toward increased potential in early August. The Gulf disturbance is not expected to develop significantly, but it reminds us that the quiet can shift quickly.
Stay informed and prepared—Cat5Prep.com will continue tracking it all, daily.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 23, 2025: Gulf Disturbance Brings Rain Risk, Tropics Mostly Stable
A low-pressure system in the north-central Gulf is bringing rain to Florida and the northern coast, but development remains unlikely. Multiple waves in the Atlantic are being monitored.
The Atlantic basin remains quiet overall, but a new area of interest has developed in the north-central Gulf of Mexico, with a low (10%) chance of tropical development. Elsewhere, multiple tropical waves continue their westward journey across the Atlantic, but none show signs of immediate organization.
Gulf of Mexico: Watching a Coastal Disturbance
As of the 8:00 AM EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, a trough of low pressure just offshore the southeastern United States is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf. The system is forecast to drift west-southwestward over the next day or two into more open waters.
Chance of development remains low (10%) as the system will likely move inland before organizing.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rain is expected along the Florida west coast and the northern Gulf coast through the weekend.
We'll continue to monitor this system closely for any signs of improvement in structure.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Atlantic Basin: Multiple Waves Being Tracked
There are no active tropical cyclones, but several waves are being tracked in the deep tropics:
A tropical wave near 40°W continues to produce scattered convection but remains disorganized.
A new wave near 23°W just off the African coast was introduced in this morning’s outlook. It’s producing moderate convection along its southern extent.
A low-pressure feature near 08N44W, embedded within the monsoon trough, is also aiding convection but not expected to develop in the near term.
These features will be watched for signs of improved structure as they move westward.
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR – GOES-19 Air Mass Composite – July 23, 2025
Caribbean & Western Atlantic: Typical July Conditions
Scattered thunderstorms continue near eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and the southwest Caribbean.
Trade winds remain moderate to fresh across much of the basin.
Seas range from 4 to 8 feet, highest in the south-central Caribbean.
The Saharan Air Layer remains weak to moderate, allowing more moisture into the mid-tropics.
Florida Forecast
Highs: 89–92°F (32–33°C)
Humidity: High, with heat index values over 100°F possible
Rain chances: Elevated this afternoon due to outer moisture from the Gulf disturbance
Winds: Light east-southeast, higher near thunderstorms
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Don’t Let “Low Chances” Lull You
Even disturbances with low formation chances can bring:
Flash flooding
Power outages
Road hazards
Use today to test emergency alerts, stock up on essentials, and make sure you’re signed up with your county’s emergency management system.
Looking Ahead
While July continues to show gradual tropical stirring, the big-picture signals—warmer SSTs, decreasing shear, and more active wave patterns—still point toward a ramp-up in early August. Stay ahead of it, and keep checking back for the latest updates.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 22, 2025: Tropics Stirring, But Development Remains Gradual
Tropical activity is picking up across the Atlantic, with multiple waves being monitored. While no storms are expected yet, conditions are slowly becoming more favorable for development.
The Atlantic basin remains free of named storms this morning, but the deep tropics are showing increased activity. Multiple tropical waves are marching across the basin—some with disorganized convection, others with early signs of circulation. While none are forecast to develop imminently, the atmospheric stage is being set for a more active period as we approach late July.
Atlantic Basin: Several Waves Under Watch
As of the 8:00 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
No active tropical cyclones
Two tropical waves of interest:
Central Atlantic wave near 45°W: Still disorganized, no longer showing on NOAA Seven-Day TWO , moving westward at 10–15 knots. Scattered convection continues, and models suggest a more favorable environment as it approaches the Caribbean later this week.
Chance of development over 7 days: Low (20%)Far Eastern Atlantic wave near 27°W: Recently emerged off Africa. Some associated convection along its southern flank, but no signs of organization yet.
Both systems are embedded in the broader Monsoon Trough, which is supporting shower and thunderstorm development across the deep tropics.
Sea Surface Temperatures: Favorable and Climbing
Ocean waters remain well above average in key areas:
Gulf of Mexico: 86–90°F (30–32°C) across most of the basin
Western Caribbean: Steady warming, ideal for storm fuel
Main Development Region (MDR): 1–2°C above normal across much of the eastern and central Atlantic
These conditions provide a supportive foundation for any systems that organize over the coming weeks.
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear and Atmospheric Conditions: Mixed Signals
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind shear is moderate across much of the Caribbean and central Atlantic, but is beginning to weaken in pockets—especially south of 20°N.
Moisture levels in the mid and lower atmosphere continue to rise, supporting the recent uptick in convection.
Dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) still lingers across parts of the eastern Atlantic but is beginning to fragment—reducing one of the main inhibitors to development.
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Widespread in the Deep Tropics
Clusters of convection are active:
Along the monsoon trough from 10°N to 15°N between 25°W and 50°W
In the western Caribbean, especially south of Jamaica, where upper-level support is creating isolated thunderstorms
Over Central America and the Yucatán Peninsula, where diurnal heat is triggering inland storms
These are not organized tropical systems—but they reflect a broader shift toward a more favorable convective environment.
Thunderstorm forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Hot, Humid, and Stormy
Expect a classic Florida summer day:
North Florida: Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s°F, scattered PM storms
Central Florida: Around 91°F with heat index nearing 102°F; thunderstorms likely between 2–7 PM
South Florida: Mid-to-upper 80s, muggy, with pockets of heavy rainfall inland
Localized flooding is possible in low-lying areas during heavy downpours.
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Recheck Insurance Coverage
Use this quiet window to review your insurance:
Verify your hurricane deductible and coverage limits
Make sure flood insurance is in place—it typically has a 30-day waiting period
Store digital copies of policies in a secure cloud folder
Photograph your home’s exterior and interior for pre-storm documentation
Looking Ahead: No Immediate Threats, But the Tropics Are Heating Up
While no storms are expected in the next 48 hours, the increasing wave activity, warm ocean waters, and weakening SAL suggest the tropics are transitioning into a more active phase. Late July into early August is a known ramp-up period for development.
Stay alert, stay ready, and check back tomorrow for your Cat5Prep.com hurricane update.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 21, 2025: Tropics Active with Waves, But No Imminent Threats
The Atlantic remains cyclone-free, but several tropical waves are moving across the basin. Conditions are gradually becoming more favorable for development as July progresses.
The tropical Atlantic is becoming increasingly active, with multiple tropical waves progressing westward across the basin. While none are expected to develop in the short term, the setup is a reminder that we are entering a more climatologically favorable period for storm formation.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Atlantic Basin Overview: No Cyclones, But Multiple Waves
As of the 8:00 AM EDT update from the National Hurricane Center:
No active tropical cyclones
No systems with high development potential at this time
Disturbance 1: A tropical wave near 40°W is producing scattered convection, but environmental conditions remain only marginally favorable.
Formation chance (7 days): 20%
Movement: West to west-northwest at 10–15 mph
New Wave Introduced: A second tropical wave near 23°W, just offshore of Africa, is showing scattered moderate convection on its southern flank.
Too early to determine development potential, but it will be watched over the coming days.
Monsoon Trough Low: A weak low embedded along the monsoon trough near 08N44W is sparking convection, but not currently organized.
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR – GOES-19 Air Mass Composite – July 21, 2025
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Still Warm
Gulf of Mexico: 86–88°F – well above average
Western Caribbean: 85–87°F – supportive of development
Main Development Region (MDR): 82–84°F and climbing, with warm anomalies persisting
Warm waters throughout the basin provide the necessary energy for storms should other conditions align.
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear and Atmospheric Conditions
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Shear remains moderate across much of the central and eastern Atlantic but is expected to weaken later in the week.
Moisture levels continue rising, particularly in the MDR and Caribbean.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Still present but beginning to thin slightly, particularly west of 40°W.
These factors collectively suggest improving potential for storm development by late July or early August.
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean Outlook
A surface trough remains in the eastern Bay of Campeche, producing scattered thunderstorms.
Light to moderate winds (10–15 kt) dominate much of the Gulf, with seas around 3–5 feet.
Fresh winds (15–20 kt) and higher seas (6–8 ft) continue across parts of the south-central Caribbean.
Expect stronger trades and more convection near the Windward Passage and central Caribbean midweek as a tropical wave enters the region.
Wave height forecast (ECMWF Waves) courtesy of Windy.com
Surface pressure data (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F
Humidity: High
Rain Chances: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms, driven by sea breezes and instability
Winds: Light and variable, turning southeast near the coast
Hazards: Isolated strong storms possible with gusty winds and localized flooding
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Update Insurance and Inventory
Use this lull to get your disaster documentation in order:
Review your homeowners or renters insurance policy
Document your belongings via photos or video
Store digital backups in the cloud
Know your flood zone and verify your flood insurance coverage
Looking Ahead: Tropics Warming Up
While no tropical cyclone development is expected in the next 7 days, the overall pattern is becoming more favorable. Multiple waves in the deep tropics bear watching, and model guidance hints at potential activity in early August. We'll continue monitoring all waves for signs of organization.
Stay informed, stay prepared, and check back daily for updates from Cat5Prep.com.