Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 23, 2025: Gulf Disturbance Brings Rain Risk, Tropics Mostly Stable

The Atlantic basin remains quiet overall, but a new area of interest has developed in the north-central Gulf of Mexico, with a low (10%) chance of tropical development. Elsewhere, multiple tropical waves continue their westward journey across the Atlantic, but none show signs of immediate organization.

Gulf of Mexico: Watching a Coastal Disturbance

As of the 8:00 AM EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, a trough of low pressure just offshore the southeastern United States is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf. The system is forecast to drift west-southwestward over the next day or two into more open waters.

  • Chance of development remains low (10%) as the system will likely move inland before organizing.

  • Regardless of development, locally heavy rain is expected along the Florida west coast and the northern Gulf coast through the weekend.

We'll continue to monitor this system closely for any signs of improvement in structure.

Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com

Atlantic Basin: Multiple Waves Being Tracked

There are no active tropical cyclones, but several waves are being tracked in the deep tropics:

  • A tropical wave near 40°W continues to produce scattered convection but remains disorganized.

  • A new wave near 23°W just off the African coast was introduced in this morning’s outlook. It’s producing moderate convection along its southern extent.

  • A low-pressure feature near 08N44W, embedded within the monsoon trough, is also aiding convection but not expected to develop in the near term.

These features will be watched for signs of improved structure as they move westward.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR – GOES-19 Air Mass Composite – July 23, 2025

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR – GOES-19 Air Mass Composite – July 23, 2025

Caribbean & Western Atlantic: Typical July Conditions

  • Scattered thunderstorms continue near eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and the southwest Caribbean.

  • Trade winds remain moderate to fresh across much of the basin.

  • Seas range from 4 to 8 feet, highest in the south-central Caribbean.

  • The Saharan Air Layer remains weak to moderate, allowing more moisture into the mid-tropics.

Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com

Wave height forecast (ECMWF Waves) courtesy of Windy.com

Wind forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com

Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com

Florida Forecast

  • Highs: 89–92°F (32–33°C)

  • Humidity: High, with heat index values over 100°F possible

  • Rain chances: Elevated this afternoon due to outer moisture from the Gulf disturbance

  • Winds: Light east-southeast, higher near thunderstorms

Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com

Prep Tip of the Day: Don’t Let “Low Chances” Lull You

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Even disturbances with low formation chances can bring:

  • Flash flooding

  • Power outages

  • Road hazards

Use today to test emergency alerts, stock up on essentials, and make sure you’re signed up with your county’s emergency management system.

Looking Ahead

While July continues to show gradual tropical stirring, the big-picture signals—warmer SSTs, decreasing shear, and more active wave patterns—still point toward a ramp-up in early August. Stay ahead of it, and keep checking back for the latest updates.

Alex Mitchell

Alexander Mitchell, a dedicated father, combines his passion for finance with a commitment to higher education. With expertise in finance and engineering, he strives to impart valuable knowledge to students. When he's not advancing academic pursuits, Alex cheers on his beloved Cleveland Browns, proudly representing his hometown.

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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 24, 2025: Gulf Disturbance Monitored as Tropics Remain Broadly Quiet

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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 22, 2025: Tropics Stirring, But Development Remains Gradual