Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – September 4, 2025
On September 4, the Atlantic basin remains quiet with no active storms. The main feature is a tropical wave west-southwest of Cabo Verde, showing signs of organization. The NHC gives it a 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression within 48 hours and 80% within 7 days. It is expected to move west to west-northwest and could approach the eastern Caribbean by mid-next week. The Gulf of Mexico and Florida remain calm, experiencing only typical summer thunderstorms.
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Atlantic quiet overall; tropical wave WSW of Cabo Verde likely to become a depression this weekend
Atlantic Basin Overview
Eastern Atlantic disturbance (near 34°W)
Showers and storms tied to a tropical wave several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are getting a bit better organized. The NHC says environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely late this week or this weekend as the wave moves W–WNW ~5–10 mph. It should accelerate westward afterward and reach waters east of the Lesser Antilles by mid-next week. Formation odds: 50% (48 hr) and 80% (7 days).
No other active systems
Aside from this wave, no tropical cyclones are active in the Atlantic this morning per NHC outlooks.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Warm waters persist across the deep tropics, with widespread warmth expected to favor development as the wave travels west. (NHC notes “conducive” conditions for this system.)
Wind Shear: Broad Atlantic shear has been on the higher side recently, but guidance and outlooks indicate a more favorable pocket near the wave, aligning with the NHC’s expectation of gradual organization.
Mid-level Humidity & SAL: Dry air/Saharan dust remain scattered across the central Atlantic and have been suppressing convection in other waves; conditions are less hostile near the developing disturbance than earlier this week.
Large-scale pattern: Forecasters expect upticks in Atlantic activity in early September given unusually warm waters and supportive intraseasonal signals; still, track confidence for any single wave is low at this lead time.
Gulf of American (Mexico) & Caribbean
The Gulf remains quiet under relatively benign marine conditions; no tropical development is indicated in current NHC products. Offshore forecasts keep light winds and low seas (generally ≤3 ft) through the period.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
General pattern: Hot, humid late-summer weather with the daily sea-breeze cycle of scattered afternoon thunderstorms continues. No tropical threats for the state are signalled by NHC at this time. (Central Florida forecast discussions also note a lingering boundary with showers/storms, trending a bit drier into the weekend.)
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Summary
A tropical wave WSW of Cabo Verde has 50% (48 hr) / 80% (7-day) odds to form; a depression is likely late week/weekend as it tracks W–WNW.
No other active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic this morning.
Environment: warm SSTs and a somewhat improved shear/moisture backdrop near the wave support gradual development, but SAL/dry air remain pockets of resistance elsewhere.
Gulf and Florida: quiet from a tropical standpoint; typical afternoon storms, light marine winds, and low seas prevail.
TL;DR – September 4 Snapshot
High-confidence watch: Wave WSW of Cabo Verde likely to become a depression late week/weekend; 80% 7-day odds.
Track window: Guidance favors a west to west-northwest motion toward the east of the Lesser Antilles by mid-next week (too early for specifics).
No other systems active; Gulf & Florida remain in a routine summer pattern with scattered storms and no tropical threats.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – September 3, 2025
On September 3, the Atlantic basin remains free of active tropical cyclones. A tropical wave emerging from Africa is showing increased signs of organization, with the NHC assigning a 70% chance of development over the next week. This system could become Tropical Depression Seven or Tropical Storm Gabrielle. Florida and the Gulf of Mexico remain quiet, experiencing only typical late-summer thunderstorms.
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Atlantic remains quiet; African wave now has 70% 7-day development odds
Atlantic Basin Overview
No Active Storms
The Atlantic basin continues to be free of active tropical cyclones—no storms are currently present.Tropical Wave Off Africa
A tropical wave exiting Africa is gaining strength. The NHC now gives this system a 0% development chance in 48 hours, rising to 70% over 7 days. Development into Tropical Depression Seven—and possibly Tropical Storm Gabrielle—is considered likely by the weekend.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Remain warm in the Caribbean and Gulf (about 29–31 °C) but cooler farther east, where the African wave is located.
Wind Shear: Moderate to strong shear persists across much of the Atlantic but may ease near the developing wave.
Mid-Level Humidity & SAL: Dry air and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are widespread, but are expected to diminish along the wave’s path as it tracks westward.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean
The Gulf remains quiet, dominated by high pressure. Only routine afternoon thunderstorms are expected along coastal areas; no tropical development is expected at this time.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Florida continues with typical early-September weather: hot and humid, with scattered sea-breeze-driven afternoon thunderstorms. No tropical threats are expected. Coastal waters are calmer as the Atlantic’s longtime surf persists from prior systems but gently subsides.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Summary
Atlantic basin remains calm with no systems currently active.
A tropical wave off Africa shows a high (70%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 7 days.
Environmental factors—warm SSTs but competing dry air, SAL, and wind shear—will determine if and when development occurs.
Gulf and Florida remain storm-free and continue typical late-summer weather patterns.
TL;DR – September 3 Snapshot
Atlantic is quiet with no storms.
African wave now has 70% development odds over the next 7 days.
Atlantic environment remains marginal but improving near the wave.
Florida and Gulf remain calm with routine storms.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – September 2, 2025
On September 2, the Atlantic remains storm-free with no active tropical cyclones. A tropical wave emerging off the coast of Africa shows rising organization and carries a 70% chance of development within 7 days. Environmental conditions are gradually improving, though dry air and Saharan dust remain factors. The Gulf of Mexico and Florida stay calm with only typical early-September thunderstorms.
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Atlantic remains quiet; African wave gaining strength with a 70% 7-day development chance
Atlantic Basin Overview
No Active Storms
The Atlantic basin remains clear of any active tropical cyclones.Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa
A tropical wave located south of the Cabo Verde Islands is showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are becoming more favorable, prompting a forecast of a low 30% chance of formation in the next 48 hours, rising significantly to a high 70% chance of development over the next 7 days.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Remain warm (~29–31 °C) in the Caribbean and Gulf, supportive for tropical development. Cooler conditions persist in the open Atlantic.
Wind Shear: Moderate to strong across much of the Atlantic; however, shear is forecast to ease gradually across the eastern tropical Atlantic, aiding organization of the wave.
Mid-Level Humidity & SAL: While dry air and Saharan Dust (SAL) remain present, pockets of increasing moisture near the African wave are aiding its potential development.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean
The Gulf remains quiet, dominated by high pressure. Expect only daily sea-breeze afternoon thunderstorms—no tropical development is anticipated.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Florida continues with typical early-September weather—hot, humid, and prone to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. There are no tropical threats or coastal hazards affecting the state at this time.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Summary
Atlantic basin remains calm, but one African wave shows high development potential (70%) over 7 days.
Environmental factors including SSTs, shear, moisture, and SAL will determine whether it organizes.
Gulf and Florida experience routine late-summer weather; no tropical systems in the near term.
TL;DR – September 2 Snapshot
Atlantic quiet with no storms.
70% chance a wave near Africa develops in the next 7 days.
Warm SSTs but competing shear and dry air—watch environment closely.
Florida and Gulf remain in standard summer pattern.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – September 1, 2025
On September 1, the Atlantic remains storm-free with no active cyclones. A tropical wave emerging off the coast of Africa carries a 40% chance of development over the next 7 days. While environmental conditions—wind shear, dry air, and Saharan dust—are suppressing rapid growth, the wave will be monitored closely. Florida and the Gulf of Mexico remain quiet, experiencing only typical early-September thunderstorms.
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Atlantic remains quiet; tropical wave off Africa shows rising potential (40% over 7 days)
Atlantic Basin Overview
No Active Storms
There are currently no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin—the first tranquil period we've seen since the wake of Fernand and Erin.Emerging Tropical Wave Off Africa
A new tropical wave has emerged off the West Coast of Africa near Guinea-Bissau. Presently disorganized, the NHC assigns it a 0% chance of development in the next 48 hours, but the probability rises to about 40% over the next 7 days. This system will be closely monitored as it moves west across the tropical Atlantic.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Remain warm in the Gulf and Caribbean (29–31 °C), while the open Atlantic heat content diminishes northward.
Wind Shear: Elevated shear across much of the basin continues to suppress storm formation.
Mid-Level Humidity & SAL (Saharan Air Layer): Dry air and SAL dust are widespread, inhibiting significant convection and limiting the strength of the new wave emerging off Africa.
Gulf of America & Caribbean
The Gulf remains stable and quiet, under the influence of high pressure. Only routine afternoon sea-breeze thunderstorms are expected—no tropical threats are present.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Florida continues in its trademark late-August/early-September pattern: hot, humid, with scattered afternoon thunderstorms. With no active systems nearby, no coastal or tropical threats are expected this week.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Summary
No storms are currently active in the Atlantic basin.
A tropical wave off Africa is being monitored, with a 40% chance of developing within 7 days.
Environmental factors—including cool SSTs, strong shear, dry air, and SAL—are suppressing tropical development.
Gulf and Florida remain quiet, with only standard summertime weather patterns in play.
TL;DR – September 1 Snapshot
Atlantic is fully quiet; no active storms.
Tropical wave off Africa now has 40% 7-day development odds.
Hostile conditions in place, limiting immediate storm formation.
Florida and Gulf remain calm, aside from typical daily thunderstorms.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 31, 2025
On August 31, the Atlantic remains storm-free following the dissipation of Fernand and Erin’s exit. The only feature of interest is a tropical wave moving off Africa, with a low 30% development chance over the next 7 days. Environmental conditions—wind shear, dry air, and Saharan dust—continue to limit storm formation. Florida and the Gulf remain calm aside from typical summer storms.
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Atlantic basin remains quiet; a weak wave off Africa shows low (30%) development odds
Atlantic Basin Overview
No Active Storms
There are currently no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. The calm continues following Fernand’s dissipation and the end of Erin’s impacts.Tropical Wave Near Africa
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa, and the NHC assigns it a low – but not negligible – chance of development: 0% over the next 2 days, increasing to 30% over the next 3 to 7 days.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Warm in the Caribbean and Gulf (~29–31 °C), but less favorable conditions in much of the open Atlantic.
Wind Shear: Continues to be elevated across large swaths of the basin, discouraging storm formation.
Mid-Level Humidity & SAL: Dry air and Saharan dust (SAL) remain prevalent, further suppressing convective activity.
Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean
The Gulf remains quiet and stable, dominated by high pressure. Only routine afternoon thunderstorms are occurring along the coasts—no tropical development is expected.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Florida continues in its late-August pattern—hot, humid, with scattered afternoon thunderstorms. No tropical threats are present.
Beaches along the Atlantic coast are beginning to calm. With no new swells incoming, rip currents and surf conditions are generally improving, though caution remains prudent in areas still unsettled from earlier systems.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Summary
Atlantic basin is currently calm, with no tropical storms or hurricanes active.
A new tropical wave off Africa carries low (30%) development odds over the next week.
Environmental factors (cooler SSTs, shear, dry air, and SAL) continue to limit development potential.
Gulf and Florida remain storm-free, apart from the usual summer thunderstorms.
TL;DR – August 31 Snapshot
The Atlantic is quiet and free of active storms.
A wave off Africa has low (30%) chance of development by next week.
Environmental conditions remain unfavorable for new formations.
Florida and Gulf remain calm with only routine seasonal storms.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 29, 2025
On August 29, Fernand dissipated in the far North Atlantic, marking the first quiet period in weeks across the basin. No tropical systems are active, though a weak wave off Africa shows low development potential. The Gulf of Mexico and Florida remain calm, experiencing only routine summer thunderstorms.
TLDR Version: Click Here
Fernand has dissipated; no active tropical storms, but a new wave off Africa warrants monitoring
Atlantic Basin Overview
Fernand Has Dissipated
Post-tropical Fernand has fully dissipated over the far North Atlantic. As of the last advisory on August 28, 0900 UTC, it was centered near 41.2°N, 42.9°W, moving east-northeast at ~23 mph with maximum winds of 35 knots (40 mph) and a minimum pressure of 1009 mb. No further advisories will be issued, and the system is no longer a threat to land.
No Active Tropical Systems
Currently, there are no active tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. Model tracking tools confirm the basin is completely clear of active systems.
New Disturbance Emerging Near Africa
The NHC is observing a tropical wave east of the Cabo Verde Islands. This wave features no significant convection and is currently under the influence of Saharan dust. While its development odds are low in the short term, there’s a 20% chance of development over the next 7 days.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Warm waters (~29–31 °C) persist in the Gulf and Caribbean, but cooling temperatures across the open Atlantic now that Fernand is gone.
Wind Shear: Elevated wind shear continues to suppress development across most of the Atlantic.
Mid-Level Relative Humidity & Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Dry air and SAL dust are prevalent—particularly near the new wave off Africa—further hampering development.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean
The Gulf remains quiet and stable, with high pressure dominating. Only typical afternoon thunderstorms are expected; no organized or tropical development is forecast.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Florida continues to experience standard late-summer weather—hot, humid, with scattered afternoon thunderstorms. The absence of major tropical features means no new coastal threats.
Atlantic beaches are finally beginning to calm after prolonged rough surf from previous systems, though caution remains advised where noticeable wave action persists.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Summary
Fernand has dissipated; no tropical cyclones remain in the Atlantic.
Atlantic remains quiet, with only a small wave emerging near Africa carrying limited development potential.
Environmental factors—cooler SSTs, wind shear, dry air, and SAL—continue to suppress tropical activity.
Gulf and Florida show no signs of tropical development, carrying on with typical summer weather patterns.
TL;DR – August 29 Snapshot
Fernand is no longer active and poses no threat.
Atlantic basin is quiet—only a minor wave off Africa is being watched.
Environmental conditions remain unfavorable for storm formation.
Florida and Gulf continue with routine stormy weather; beaches are calming.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 27, 2025
On August 27, Tropical Storm Fernand transitioned into a post-tropical system southeast of Newfoundland. While Fernand poses no threat to land, Erin’s long-period swells continue to drive dangerous surf and rip currents from the Carolinas through New England. Florida and the Gulf of Mexico remain calm, with only typical late-August thunderstorms and no signs of tropical development.
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Tropical Storm Fernand becomes post-tropical over open waters; East Coast surf threats persist
Atlantic Basin Overview
Tropical Storm Fernand
As of 5 AM AST (0900 UTC), Fernand is situated near 38.3° N, 50.8° W, approximately 590 miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. The system carries sustained winds of 45 mph, is moving east at 12 mph, and maintains a central pressure of 1007 mb.
No coastal watches or warnings are active. Fernand is expected to transition into a post‑tropical system later today, then evolve into a trough and dissipate by Thursday.
Hurricane Erin’s Lingering Surf Impacts
Despite being long gone, Erin's energy continues to affect coastal waters. East Coast beaches—from the Carolinas through New England—continue to experience rough surf and dangerous rip currents.
No Other Tropical Activity
There are no new tropical disturbances of concern at this time, and forecast models show an inactive Atlantic basin in the short term.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Waters remain warm in the subtropics but are cooling northward—supporting Fernand's decay.
Wind Shear: Moderate winds aloft are increasing and will help dissipate Fernand.
Mid-Level Humidity & SAL: Dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer still suppress convection across the Atlantic, limiting new storm formation.
Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean
The Gulf remains quiet and stable, dominated by high pressure. Afternoon thunderstorms continue in coastal areas, but no tropical development is expected.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Typical late-August weather prevails: hot and humid with scattered afternoon storms across Florida.
Beaches along the Atlantic continue to face elevated rip current risks, driven by the lingering swell from Erin and residual energy from Fernand.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Summary
Fernand weakens as it becomes post-tropical; no land threat.
Erin’s surf legacy continues to endanger East Coast recreation.
Atlantic basin remains quiet—no new systems.
Gulf and Florida are calm aside from routine summer storms.
Hostile environmental conditions (cooler SSTs, shear, dry air, SAL) limit development.
TL;DR – August 27 Snapshot
Fernand becomes post-tropical in the open ocean—no land threat.
Rip currents and rough surf continue to challenge East Coast beaches.
Active development unlikely; Atlantic remains quiet.
Florida and Gulf of Mexico see only typical summer storms.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 26, 2025
On August 26, Tropical Storm Fernand weakened over cooler waters east-northeast of Bermuda and is expected to become post-tropical by Wednesday. While Fernand poses no threat to land, Erin’s swells are still driving dangerous rip currents along the U.S. East Coast. Florida and the Gulf of Mexico remain quiet, experiencing only typical late-August thunderstorms.
TLDR Version: Click Here
Tropical Storm Fernand weakens offshore; Erin’s surf legacy lingers while tropics turn quiet
Atlantic Basin Overview
Tropical Storm Fernand
As of Tuesday morning, Fernand is located about 635 miles east-northeast of Bermuda, moving northeast at ~14 mph with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph and a central pressure of 1005 mb. The storm has weakened over cooler waters and moderate shear, and is forecast to transition into a post-tropical system by Wednesday, dissipating altogether by Thursday. No watches or warnings are in effect, and Fernand poses no threat to land.
Hurricane Erin’s Legacy
Though Erin has been gone for days, its immense size and powerful wave field continue to leave a footprint along the East Coast. Long-period swells and dangerous rip currents remain a hazard from the Carolinas through New England, particularly in areas with open exposure to the Atlantic.
Other Atlantic Activity
The National Hurricane Center reports no active disturbances of concern. A tropical wave that had entered the Caribbean has been choked off by dry air and shear, with 0–10% development odds over the next week
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): The Caribbean and Gulf remain very warm (29–31 °C), supportive of storm formation. In the North Atlantic, Fernand is moving into cooler waters, which will force weakening.
Wind Shear: Shear is moderate over Fernand and forecast to increase, hastening its post-tropical transition. Stronger shear persists across much of the MDR, suppressing new development.
Mid-Level Relative Humidity: Dry mid-level air continues across the central Atlantic, limiting convective organization for any tropical waves.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Dust-laden air spans the eastern and central Atlantic, further capping deep convection and hindering tropical development.
Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean
The Gulf remains quiet under high pressure, with no signs of organized development. Only routine afternoon thunderstorms are occurring along coastal regions. Despite very warm waters, the Gulf shows no near-term tropical threats.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Florida is under a typical late-August pattern: hot, humid conditions with scattered afternoon thunderstorms driven by sea breezes. Some morning showers are possible along the Gulf Coast.
Along the Atlantic beaches, hazardous surf and rip currents remain the main concern, with energy still propagating from Erin’s remnants and Fernand’s offshore circulation
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Summary
Fernand has weakened to a 45 mph storm and will become post-tropical by Wednesday.
Erin’s legacy continues to affect the East Coast with dangerous surf and rip currents.
No new Atlantic systems show signs of development; odds remain very low.
Gulf of Mexico and Florida are quiet, with only routine late-summer storms.
Environmental conditions: Warm SSTs but hostile shear, dry air, and SAL are suppressing new activity.
TL;DR – August 26 Snapshot
Fernand weakens offshore; no land impacts expected.
Erin’s swells continue to fuel rip currents along the East Coast.
SAL, dry air, and wind shear are limiting new storm development.
Gulf and Florida remain quiet aside from typical thunderstorms.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 25, 2025
Tropical Storm Fernand continues east of Bermuda with sustained winds near 50 mph and will weaken as it moves into cooler waters. Erin’s legacy swells still drive dangerous surf and rip currents from the Carolinas to New England. Florida and the Gulf remain calm, with only routine summer thunderstorms.
TLDR Version: Click Here
Tropical Storm Fernand holds strength offshore; environmental factors limit wider Atlantic development
Atlantic Basin Overview
Tropical Storm Fernand
Fernand is located about 360 miles east-northeast of Bermuda, carrying sustained winds near 50 mph while moving north-northeast at ~12 mph. The system may strengthen slightly today but will soon encounter cooler waters and stronger upper-level winds, leading to weakening and a transition to a post-tropical cyclone by midweek. No coastal warnings are in effect, and Fernand poses no threat to land.
Hurricane Erin’s Legacy
Erin’s powerful circulation has long dissipated, but the swell energy lingers. Beaches from the Carolinas to New England remain at risk for dangerous rip currents, elevated surf, and localized erosion, even as skies improve inland.
Other Atlantic Activity
A tropical wave in the Caribbean and another in the central Atlantic show low development chances. The NHC assigns only a 10% probability of tropical formation through 7 days. Dry air and hostile shear continue to suppress organization.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean
The Gulf is quiet under high pressure with only routine afternoon thunderstorms along the coast. Very warm waters (29–31 °C) cover the basin, but no tropical development is expected in the near term.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Florida remains locked in a late-August cycle: hot, humid conditions and scattered afternoon thunderstorms driven by the sea breeze. Some areas also see morning showers drifting in from the Gulf, making for a two-phase rain pattern.
No tropical threats are present, but Atlantic beaches continue to face rip current risks due to Fernand’s swells and Erin’s lingering wave action.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): The Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are running 29–31 °C (84–88 °F), supportive of development. In the western Atlantic, SSTs are warm enough to sustain Fernand briefly, but cooler waters to the north will drive weakening.
Wind Shear: Currently low to moderate around Fernand, allowing some maintenance of strength. However, increasing shear northward will disrupt convection and hasten its post-tropical transition. Shear also remains moderate to strong across much of the MDR, suppressing other disturbances.
Mid-Level Relative Humidity (RH): Dry air pockets persist in the central Atlantic, limiting organization of Invest 99L and other waves. Moisture is more favorable closer to the Caribbean and Gulf.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): SAL dust continues to intrude across parts of the eastern and central Atlantic, reducing convection and capping development potential.
Summary
Fernand is a 50 mph tropical storm, staying well offshore and weakening by midweek.
Erin’s swells continue to fuel dangerous surf and rip currents along the East Coast.
Environmental conditions (SSTs supportive, but SAL, dry mid-level air, and increasing shear) are limiting further Atlantic development.
Gulf and Florida remain quiet, aside from routine thunderstorms and coastal surf hazards.
TL;DR – August 25 Snapshot
Fernand stays offshore, no U.S. land threat, weakening soon.
Rip currents and surf hazards linger along the East Coast.
SAL, shear, and dry mid-level air suppress new storm formation.
Gulf and Florida remain in a routine summer pattern.
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