Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – October 16, 2025
Tropical Storm Lorenzo continues weakening over open waters; no new systems developing
Atlantic Basin Overview
Tropical Storm Lorenzo
Lorenzo is weakening while maintaining a general north to northeast track over the central Atlantic. Lorenzo has maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward roughly 60 miles from the center.
Lorenzo will shift toward the northeast later in the week and gradually dissipate, with no landfall expected.Other Tropical Activity
There are currently no other active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf basins. The NHC’s 7-day outlook indicates no additional tropical cyclone formation expected in that timeframe.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
Lorenzo is traversing moderately warm waters supportive of tropical structure, though as it moves northward it will encounter cooler SSTs that accelerate decay.Wind Shear:
The system continues to face moderate to strong vertical wind shear, which is limiting deep convection and contributing to its weakening trend.Dry Air / SAL (Saharan Air Layer):
Surrounding dry air and intrusions of dust remain factors, suppressing convection in outer bands and preventing reintensification.
Gulf of America & Caribbean
As of now, the Gulf of America and Caribbean remain quiet, with no organized tropical systems developing. Routine seasonal convection (showers, storms) continues.
Florida & Eastern U.S. Forecast
No tropical threats are forecast for Florida or the U.S. East Coast, as Lorenzo stays well offshore. The main impact to watch is marine hazards: lingering swells, rough surf, and rip currents along Atlantic beaches may continue through the period.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
TL;DR – October 16 Snapshot
Lorenzo has weakened to ~40 mph and is heading northeast over open water.
No new tropical systems are being tracked.
Environmental conditions—shear, cooler SSTs, dry air—are eroding Lorenzo’s structure.
Gulf, Caribbean, Florida remain calm.
Coastal marine hazards remain the primary concern.
