Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – October 8, 2025
Tropical Storm Jerry strengthens; Gulf disturbance has low odds of development
Atlantic Basin Overview
Tropical Storm Jerry
The disturbance Invest 95L has now officially become Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Jerry continues its west-northwest track, and a tropical storm watch has been issued for parts of the northern Leeward Islands as the system is forecast to strengthen further.Gulf / Bay of Campeche Disturbance
A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms persists over the Bay of Campeche. Some slow development is possible before the system moves inland over southern Mexico. However, the NHC currently assigns it only about a 10% chance of development over both the next 48 hours and 7 days.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
SSTs ahead of Jerry remain warm enough (around 28–29 °C) to support continued intensification.Wind Shear:
Jerry is in a region of moderate shear which may slow rapid strengthening. If it can consolidate its core, further intensification is possible.Humidity & Dry Air / SAL (Saharan Air Layer):
Dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer are present across parts of the eastern Atlantic, which could limit convective coverage in Jerry’s outer bands.
Gulf of America & Caribbean
The Gulf of America and Caribbean remain quiet. No organized tropical development is expected there at present, outside the low-chance Bay of Campeche disturbance.
Florida & Eastern U.S. Forecast
Florida and the U.S. East Coast are not currently under direct threat from Jerry. The storm is still far east, and its path is expected to curve north later. Coastal areas should continue to monitor swells, surf, and rip currents as Jerry intensifies and pushes ocean energy westward.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
TL;DR – October 8 Snapshot
Jerry is now a tropical storm, moving WNW toward the Leeward Islands with strengthening likely.
Bay of Campeche disturbance has low development chance (~10%).
Warm SSTs favor Jerry; shear and dry air could limit growth.
Gulf and Caribbean quiet otherwise.
Florida/Eastern U.S.: no land threat, but marine impacts (surf/rip currents) remain.
