Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – October 10, 2025
Tropical Storm Jerry weakens; Subtropical Storm Karen fading; Nor’easter developing off the U.S. East Coast
Atlantic Basin Overview
Tropical Storm Jerry
Jerry is located about 80 miles north-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving northwest at ~17 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward nearly 185 miles to the east of center.
Jerry continues to battle moderate to strong wind shear and dry mid-level air, keeping its convection displaced from the low-level center. Gradual weakening is expected as it curves north, and Jerry could lose tropical characteristics by Saturday, becoming post-tropical as it interacts with an upper trough.Subtropical Storm Karen
Karen, in the far North Atlantic, is weakening over cooler waters and increasing shear. It will transition to a post-tropical low within 24 hours and pose no threat to land.Non-Tropical Coastal Storm / Nor’easter (Western Atlantic)
A strengthening non-tropical low has formed just off the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. coastline, drawing deep Atlantic moisture into the region.
This hybrid system—not yet tropical but highly impactful—is producing:
• Heavy rain and coastal flooding from New Jersey through New England
• Gale- to storm-force winds along the coast and offshore waters
• Dangerous surf, rip currents, and beach erosion extending through the weekend
The system will likely intensify further as it moves north-northeast, behaving more like a Nor’easter than a tropical cyclone. While not classified as tropical, its impacts on populated areas are as significant as a weak hurricane, and it should be treated with equal caution by coastal interests.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
Warm (28–29 °C) near Jerry’s current location, but cooling rapidly northward. The Nor’easter’s energy source is baroclinic (temperature-gradient driven) rather than tropical heat.Wind Shear:
Strong upper-level winds dominate the western Atlantic—one reason Jerry is weakening and why the Nor’easter is deepening outside the tropics.Humidity & Dry Air / SAL:
Dry Saharan air continues to limit convection around Jerry’s western flank; mid-latitude dry slots are also influencing the Nor’easter’s structure.
Gulf of America & Caribbean
The Gulf of America and Caribbean remain calm, with no organized tropical activity. Conditions are dominated by localized thunderstorms and standard early-October convection.
Florida & Eastern U.S. Forecast
Florida: No tropical threats. Expect humid, stormy afternoons and increased rip current risk from Atlantic swells.
Eastern Seaboard (Mid-Atlantic to New England): Impacts are already underway from the non-tropical coastal storm / Nor’easter—including gusty winds, heavy rain, and flooding tides. Residents should monitor local advisories and coastal flood warnings.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
TL;DR – October 10 Snapshot
Jerry: 50 mph tropical storm curving north, expected to weaken and turn post-tropical soon.
Karen: Subtropical storm weakening over the North Atlantic.
Nor’easter: Powerful non-tropical coastal storm developing off the Eastern U.S.—causing flooding, wind, and surf hazards through the weekend.
Gulf & Caribbean: Quiet.
Florida: No direct threats but increased surf.
