Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – October 7, 2025
Invest 95L shows rapid organization; 90% chance of tropical development in the central Atlantic
Atlantic Basin Overview
Invest 95L (High Chance of Development)
The National Hurricane Center has increased development odds for Invest 95L to 90% over the next 7 days, as satellite imagery shows rapidly improving organization in the central tropical Atlantic, about halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles.The disturbance continues to consolidate with:
• Expanding convection around a developing low-level center.
• Stronger curvature in cloud bands.
• Favorable oceanic and atmospheric support for intensification.If current trends persist, this system will likely become a tropical depression within 24–48 hours, and could be named Tropical Storm Jerry soon after.
Model guidance continues to favor a west-northwest track through midweek, gradually turning more northwest by the weekend as it encounters subtropical steering.No immediate land threats are expected, though long-range trends will be monitored closely for potential shifts toward the western Atlantic later this week.
Other Atlantic Activity
No additional organized systems are currently being monitored.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
SSTs in the central Atlantic remain very warm (29–30 °C) — more than sufficient to support strengthening if the disturbance maintains convection.Wind Shear:
The system is positioned in a region of low to moderate vertical wind shear (10–15 kt), favorable for gradual intensification over the next few days. Shear may increase slightly later in the week as the system moves northwest.Humidity & Dry Air / SAL:
Moisture levels have improved, and the surrounding Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has thinned significantly, creating a more favorable pocket for development. Only minor dry air entrainment remains on the northern flank of the disturbance.
Gulf of America & Caribbean
The Gulf of America and Caribbean remain calm with no tropical development expected. Conditions are dominated by seasonal convection and scattered thunderstorms typical for early October.
Florida & Eastern U.S. Forecast
There are no immediate tropical threats to Florida or the U.S. East Coast.
The developing system is far east in the Atlantic, thousands of miles away. Even with potential intensification, model guidance currently suggests a turn away from the U.S. mainland later this week.
Coastal conditions: Residual swells and rip currents continue along Atlantic beaches from previous systems and may increase slightly if 95L strengthens further.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
TL;DR – October 7 Snapshot
Invest 95L in the central Atlantic now carries a 90% chance of development.
Likely to become a tropical depression or named storm (Jerry) within 24–48 hours.
Favorable conditions: warm SSTs, light shear, improving humidity.
No immediate threat to Florida, the Caribbean, or the U.S. mainland.
Gulf of America remains quiet with no tropical formation expected.
Main hazards remain limited to marine impacts (rip currents, swell).
