Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 15, 2025: Erin Nears Hurricane Strength
Tropical Storm Erin is strengthening and may become the first hurricane of the season this weekend, while Invest 98L in the Gulf delivers heavy rain to South Texas. U.S. land impacts remain limited to surf and rip currents.
TLDR Version, Click Here
Erin Nears Hurricane Strength; Gulf Disturbance Spreads Moisture into Texas; U.S. Coastal Impacts Mostly Marine
Tropical Storm Erin is on the verge of becoming a hurricane—likely the season's first. Meanwhile, Invest 98L in the Bay of Campeche is bringing increased rain chances to South Texas. The U.S. mainland remains free of direct tropical threats, but coastal surf and rip currents from Erin warrant awareness.
Atlantic Basin Overview
Tropical Storm Erin has intensified, with sustained winds now around 60 mph and tropical storm-force winds extending from a compact core.
Hurricane Hunter aircraft are en route to assess the system. Erin is expected to become a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, with potential escalation to Category 3 (major) over the weekend.Forecast track: Currently on a west-northwest path, Erin is projected to steer northward later and remain offshore of the U.S.–Bahamas corridor, possibly passing near Bermuda. Direct U.S. land impacts are unlikely, but marine hazards will increase.
Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean Conditions
Invest 98L (Bay of Campeche): The disturbance now carries a 40% chance of development over 48 hours and 20% over 7 days. Although tropical cyclone formation is not expected, heavy rain and elevated coastal flooding risk (including rip currents) continue for South Texas.
Caribbean Sea: Stable with typical trade-wind rains and no organized tropical systems.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf of America - Sandwich
GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean - Sandwich
Florida & Southeast Forecast
Florida: Persistent heat and humidity prevail with typical afternoon sea‑breeze thunderstorms. These storms are non-tropical in nature.
Marine Impact from Erin: Long-period swells and rip currents will begin affecting East Coast beaches, especially in Florida and the Southeast, as Erin intensifies. Coastal vigilance is advised.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Environmental Analysis
Sea Surface Temperatures: Warm—ranging from 84°F to 88°F—support rapid intensification of Erin.
Wind Shear & Atmospheric Moisture: Shear is forecast to decrease and mid-level moisture is sufficient, favoring intensification. Meanwhile, dryness and SAL (Saharan dust) remain more prevalent in other parts of the MDR, limiting additional activity.
Summary & Preparation Notes
Erin is nearing hurricane strength and likely to reach major category. Track keeps it offshore, but surfers and beachgoers should prepare for dangerous surf and rip currents.
Invest 98L will deliver rain to Mexico and South Texas; expect localized flooding.
No immediate threats to Florida or the U.S., but this weekend’s marine hazards are real.
Use this time to confirm emergency plans, especially for any coastal or marine activities.
TL;DR – August 15, 2025
Erin strengthening fast—on track to become a hurricane this weekend.
No direct U.S. impact expected, but surge in surf and rip currents along the Southeast coast.
Invest 98L brings rain to South Texas; low development chances.
Florida sees normal summer weather—hot and stormy, but not tropical.
Coastal watch: Swells and rip current impacts rising; stay informed for Hurricane Updates at CAT5Prep.com
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 1, 2025: Quiet Tropics, Conditions Gradually Shifting
No storms expected as August begins, but multiple tropical waves are being tracked. Conditions are evolving and a shift toward higher hurricane activity is expected in the coming weeks.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
As we enter August—historically the onset of peak Atlantic hurricane activity—there are no active tropical cyclones and no development expected over the next seven days. However, several tropical waves are moving westward, and environmental conditions are slowly transitioning toward a more favorable pattern for storm formation later in the month.
Atlantic Basin Overview
According to the 8:00 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) from the National Hurricane Center:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days WikipediaNational Hurricane Center
While no waves are currently listed as having development potential, multiple waves are traversing the eastern Atlantic.
Tropical Waves & Deep Tropics
Forecast models highlight several waves across the Atlantic, though none show organization yet:
A wave near 43–50°W, moving west at ~10–15 kt, producing scattered convection.
Another wave near 30°W, just moving off Africa, with intermittent thunderstorms.
These waves will be closely monitored as they enter warmer waters and encounter decreasing wind shear.
Environmental Conditions Snapshot
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean: 29–31 °C (84–88 °F), sustaining high energy potential.
MDR: Slightly above-average values, but cooling compared to June trends .
Wind Shear:
Elevated across the Caribbean and central Atlantic—a limiting factor in early July—but gradual easing is forecast by mid-August.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
Persistent dry air suppressing convection across most of the MDR, but expected to weaken soon.
Atmospheric Moisture:
Enhanced moisture is slowly building in the western Atlantic, improving potential for organized convection.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Conditions
No disturbances are being tracked.
A dominant high-pressure ridge produces stable flow across both basins.
Offshore marine conditions remain calm, with scattered showers typical for this time of year.
Gulf of America (Mexico)
Caribbean
Florida Forecast
Highs: Low 90s °F, sticky and humid.
Precipitation: Scattered afternoon storms driven by afternoon heating and sea breeze convergence.
Winds: Light and variable inland, shifting southeast near the coast.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Bookmark Tropical Outlook Sources
With activity still weeks away:
Confirm you can receive alerts from the National Hurricane Center.
Bookmark reliable sources such as Cat5Prep.com.
Ensure household members know where your hurricane documents and kits are stored.
Outlook
No cyclone formation is expected this week, but climatology and model trends suggest early-to-mid August could mark the beginning of increased tropical activity. The bulk of Atlantic season activity historically occurs after August 1, with the first hurricane typically forming around August 11.
TL;DR – August 1, 2025 Atlantic Forecast
No active or developing storms in the basin.
Several tropical waves tracked, none organized.
SSTs are warm; shear and SAL still suppressive.
A shift toward higher activity likely in early August.
Today is a good day to finalize hurricane plans and stay alert.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 27, 2025: Calm Conditions Continue Despite Active Waves
The tropics stay quiet on July 27, 2025, but tropical waves in the deep Atlantic are being closely monitored. No development is expected in the next 7 days, but changes could come as we approach August.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
The Atlantic basin remains free of named storms this morning, with no tropical cyclone formation expected over the next seven days. However, meteorologists are closely monitoring several tropical waves in the deep eastern Atlantic that could signal a developing pattern as we head into August.
Atlantic Basin: Quiet—but Watchful
No active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that no tropical development is expected over the next 7 days.
Tropical waves in the eastern and central Atlantic continue to be monitored for organization.
Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean: No Significant Activity
No low-pressure disturbances currently under watch.
Conditions in the Gulf remain stable, with typical afternoon thunderstorms but no signs of tropical development.
Lower Caribbean waters remain under fresh easterly trade winds, with rather isolated convection near Central America.
Tropical Waves: Deep Atlantic Features to Monitor
According to the NHC’s Tropical Weather Discussion:
A tropical wave near 27°W (south of 17°N) is moving west at ~10 kt, with scattered moderate convection noted between 5°N and 9°N.
A stronger wave near 54°W (south of 22°N) is moving west at 15–20 kt, with scattered convection between 5°N–23°N.
An area of low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough near 8°N44°W is also aiding scattered convection but remains disorganized.
None of these systems currently have the structure required for classification, but they inhabit regions where sea surface temperatures and wind shear may soon become more conducive to development.
Environmental Conditions Snapshot
The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) remains strong across the eastern Atlantic, suppressing mid-level moisture and convection.
Wind shear in the central Atlantic remains moderate to high, limiting tropical organization—though forecasts suggest a gradual reduction heading into early August.
Sea surface temperatures across the Main Development Region (MDR) remain above average, providing energy should conditions improve later this month.
Dust & SAL data from Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs around 90 °F with coastal humidity making it feel hotter.
Rain Chance: 40–50% for scattered afternoon thunderstorms driven by sea breeze convergence.
Winds: Light and variable, shifting to southeasterly in the afternoon.
No tropical impacts expected today.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Check Your Weather Apps and Alerts
While the tropics are quiet, confirming your local alert settings and weather tool readiness can make all the difference:
Enable push notifications for National Hurricane Center advisories.
Confirm alert registration with your county emergency system.
Test weather apps and bookmarks on all household phones and devices.
Looking Ahead: August May Bring Change
Though today’s conditions remain tranquil, the presence of several tropical waves moving into warmer Atlantic waters—combined with weakening Saharan dust and decreasing wind shear—suggest a gradual shift toward a more active setup. Historically, the first week of August often kicks off heightened tropical activity.
Stay alert. Stay ready. Daily Atlantic updates from Cat5Prep.com.
TL;DR
Atlantic Hurricane Forecast for July 27, 2025
No tropical storms are expected this week — the Atlantic remains quiet.
Three tropical waves are being monitored across the basin. None are showing strong signs of development yet.
Sea surface temperatures are hot and rising — especially in the Gulf and Caribbean — setting the stage for activity in August.
Wind shear and dry air (Saharan dust) continue to limit development for now.
Florida and the Gulf Coast: Typical summer weather—hot, humid, and scattered afternoon storms.
Prep Tip: Now is the time to stock up on essentials and finalize your hurricane communication plan.
No immediate threats, but stay alert. The quiet won’t last forever.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 22, 2025: Tropics Stirring, But Development Remains Gradual
Tropical activity is picking up across the Atlantic, with multiple waves being monitored. While no storms are expected yet, conditions are slowly becoming more favorable for development.
The Atlantic basin remains free of named storms this morning, but the deep tropics are showing increased activity. Multiple tropical waves are marching across the basin—some with disorganized convection, others with early signs of circulation. While none are forecast to develop imminently, the atmospheric stage is being set for a more active period as we approach late July.
Atlantic Basin: Several Waves Under Watch
As of the 8:00 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
No active tropical cyclones
Two tropical waves of interest:
Central Atlantic wave near 45°W: Still disorganized, no longer showing on NOAA Seven-Day TWO , moving westward at 10–15 knots. Scattered convection continues, and models suggest a more favorable environment as it approaches the Caribbean later this week.
Chance of development over 7 days: Low (20%)Far Eastern Atlantic wave near 27°W: Recently emerged off Africa. Some associated convection along its southern flank, but no signs of organization yet.
Both systems are embedded in the broader Monsoon Trough, which is supporting shower and thunderstorm development across the deep tropics.
Sea Surface Temperatures: Favorable and Climbing
Ocean waters remain well above average in key areas:
Gulf of Mexico: 86–90°F (30–32°C) across most of the basin
Western Caribbean: Steady warming, ideal for storm fuel
Main Development Region (MDR): 1–2°C above normal across much of the eastern and central Atlantic
These conditions provide a supportive foundation for any systems that organize over the coming weeks.
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear and Atmospheric Conditions: Mixed Signals
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind shear is moderate across much of the Caribbean and central Atlantic, but is beginning to weaken in pockets—especially south of 20°N.
Moisture levels in the mid and lower atmosphere continue to rise, supporting the recent uptick in convection.
Dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) still lingers across parts of the eastern Atlantic but is beginning to fragment—reducing one of the main inhibitors to development.
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Widespread in the Deep Tropics
Clusters of convection are active:
Along the monsoon trough from 10°N to 15°N between 25°W and 50°W
In the western Caribbean, especially south of Jamaica, where upper-level support is creating isolated thunderstorms
Over Central America and the Yucatán Peninsula, where diurnal heat is triggering inland storms
These are not organized tropical systems—but they reflect a broader shift toward a more favorable convective environment.
Thunderstorm forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Hot, Humid, and Stormy
Expect a classic Florida summer day:
North Florida: Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s°F, scattered PM storms
Central Florida: Around 91°F with heat index nearing 102°F; thunderstorms likely between 2–7 PM
South Florida: Mid-to-upper 80s, muggy, with pockets of heavy rainfall inland
Localized flooding is possible in low-lying areas during heavy downpours.
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Recheck Insurance Coverage
Use this quiet window to review your insurance:
Verify your hurricane deductible and coverage limits
Make sure flood insurance is in place—it typically has a 30-day waiting period
Store digital copies of policies in a secure cloud folder
Photograph your home’s exterior and interior for pre-storm documentation
Looking Ahead: No Immediate Threats, But the Tropics Are Heating Up
While no storms are expected in the next 48 hours, the increasing wave activity, warm ocean waters, and weakening SAL suggest the tropics are transitioning into a more active phase. Late July into early August is a known ramp-up period for development.
Stay alert, stay ready, and check back tomorrow for your Cat5Prep.com hurricane update.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 18, 2025: Tropics Quiet, But Gulf Moisture Persists
The Atlantic remains free of tropical storms today, but rising ocean heat and evolving atmospheric patterns point to potential development in the coming weeks. Stay prepared with Cat5Prep's daily hurricane outlook.
The Atlantic basin remains relatively quiet as we enter the weekend, with no active tropical cyclones or immediate threats on the map. However, lingering moisture from a weak low in the Gulf of Mexico continues to impact parts of the Southeast with enhanced rain chances. Meanwhile, environmental signals are gradually shifting toward favorability as we move closer to the climatological ramp-up in late July.
Atlantic Basin: Still Quiet, But Watchful
As of this morning’s update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
No active tropical cyclones
No named systems or advisories
No tropical development expected over the next 7 days
The basin remains in a holding pattern—but that may change in the weeks ahead.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Running Hot
Ocean heat content continues to build across key development zones:
Gulf of Mexico: Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain in the mid-to-upper 80s°F (29–31°C), well above average.
Western Caribbean: Waters continue to warm, supporting deep convection.
Main Development Region (MDR): SSTs between Africa and the Caribbean are approaching thresholds that historically support long-track hurricanes.
These conditions set the stage for rapid intensification when tropical systems do form.
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear and Atmospheric Moisture: Becoming More Conducive
While upper-level wind shear remains moderate in parts of the Caribbean and central Atlantic, it is gradually weakening—especially closer to the Gulf. Atmospheric moisture continues to increase:
Mid-level moisture is supporting thunderstorm development
Reduced shear and rising instability create a more supportive environment for potential tropical waves
This combination is worth monitoring as we approach the latter half of July.
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: A Temporary Shield
Dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) remain active over the eastern Atlantic:
SAL suppresses convection by drying out the lower atmosphere
It also enhances wind shear, limiting vertical storm growth
This protective layer typically weakens in August
While it currently limits tropical wave development off Africa, its influence is expected to wane soon.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Gulf Moisture: Lingering Showers, Low Development Risk
A broad area of low pressure and enhanced moisture remains over the northern Gulf of Mexico:
Development chances remain very low
The system is disorganized, with no surface circulation
Still, heavy rain and localized flooding are possible today along the Gulf Coast, particularly in southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and southeastern Louisiana
This disturbance is more of a rainmaker than a tropical threat but illustrates how even weak lows can impact coastal regions.
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Humid and Storm-Prone
Expect classic July conditions across the state:
North Florida: Highs in the low 90s, partly cloudy, isolated afternoon storms
Central Florida: Around 91°F, muggy, with widespread PM storms
South Florida: Mid-to-upper 80s, very humid, storms possible after 2 PM
Local flooding is possible in poor drainage areas due to repeated rounds of heavy showers.
Thunderstorm forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Review Evacuation Zones
Now is the time to double-check your local evacuation zone and routes:
Know whether you're in a surge or flood-prone area
Identify multiple exit routes in case primary roads are closed
Plan ahead for pets, medication, and transportation
Being familiar with your zone before a storm is one of the best preparedness steps you can take.
Looking Ahead: A Quiet Stretch, But a Shift Is Coming
While the tropics are calm for now, the combination of warming waters, weakening wind shear, and deepening atmospheric moisture signals that a transition to a more active pattern is coming.
Expect activity to increase in late July into early August, as the historical ramp-up in hurricane season begins.
Check back tomorrow for the next update from Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 9, 2025: Calm Seas Persist Amid Seasonal Build
The Atlantic remains quiet today, with no active storms and no development expected. But record-warm waters and shifting atmospheric patterns suggest that tropical activity could ramp up soon.
Mid-July typically signals more tropical activity—but today, the Atlantic remains unusually quiet. According to the latest NHC updates, no tropical cyclones are present, with no expected development over the next seven days. Despite the current calm, strong indicators suggest the season’s intensity is primed to rise.
Atlantic Basin: All Clear for Now
No active systems in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf
NHC forecast maintains zero development chances across the basin
This lull is rare for July and may end soon as heat and moisture build
Satellite view via Windy.com
Seasonal Outlook: Above-Normal Conditions Ahead
CSU’s July update continues to forecast an above-average season:
~17 named storms, including ~9 hurricanes and ~4 major hurricanes .NOAA similarly predicts 13–19 named storms, with a 60% chance of a busier-than-average season.
Sea Surface Temperatures: High Heat Levels
Atlantic SSTs remain well above normal—2–4°F above average—in the Gulf, Caribbean, and MDR
These elevated temperatures continue to provide plenty of energy for storm formation in the weeks ahead
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Secondary Barriers Easing
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind shear remains moderate-to-high, particularly in the eastern Atlantic—temporarily limiting development
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) and occasional dry mid-level air still suppress convection but are expected to diminish
Moisture is steadily increasing, with abundant humidity projected across storm-prone regions
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
What to Watch Next
Upcoming Infrared and visible satellite loops for signs of organization
Shifts in wind shear over the Gulf and Caribbean
Any African easterly waves gaining moisture and structure
Wind Gust Accumulation Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Early July Trends
Only one named storm (Chantal) has formed so far, but it remained weak and quickly dissipated
History shows many July systems originate in the Gulf, Caribbean, or off the Southeast U.S. coast
Outlook: Active Patterns Brewing
While quiet now, the combination of warm SSTs, moist air, and weakening shear/SAL signals a rising likelihood of Atlantic development
Hurricane Season Peak is still ahead—August through October—but increased vigilance is essential now
Prep Tip of the Day: Check Your Alert Systems
With the season expected to intensify:
Confirm NOAA Weather Radio is operational
Enable emergency alerts on all devices
Update your hurricane kit and evacuation plan
Bookmark Cat5Prep.com and the National Hurricane Center for future updates
The Atlantic remains calm—but the foundation for tropical activity is strengthening daily. Stay alert, stay prepared, and check back tomorrow for your next Cat5Prep.com outlook.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 13, 2025: Record-Warm Waters, Calm Tropics
The Atlantic remains calm on June 13, 2025, with no tropical systems expected this week. But record-warm ocean temperatures hint at growing potential for storms later in June.
As of this morning, the Atlantic basin remains quiet with no active tropical cyclones, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is not monitoring any areas for development over the next seven days. This early season calm is typical for June, but it's occurring alongside some of the warmest sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on record for this time of year.
Atlantic Basin: No Immediate Threats
There are no named storms, no tropical disturbances, and no development expected through June 20, according to the NHC’s latest outlook. While quiet conditions aren’t unusual for early June, the current oceanic heat buildup is setting the stage for a potentially more active second half of the month.
Satellite data via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Running Hot
Across much of the Atlantic basin:
Gulf of America (Mexico): SSTs are in the low to mid-80s°F (28–30°C), well above average
Western Caribbean: Also warm, supporting favorable conditions for future development
Main Development Region (MDR): Temperatures continue to trend higher than normal — a red flag as we move closer to peak hurricane season
SST data via Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Mixed Signals
Wind Shear: Remains moderate to high in some areas, limiting storm organization for now, but models show signs of gradual easing
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Dry, dusty air continues to spread across the eastern and central Atlantic, suppressing convection
Moisture Levels: Slowly increasing in the western Caribbean and Gulf, signaling that the environment is gradually becoming more storm-friendly
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Thunderstorm Activity: Diurnal, Not Tropical
Florida and the Southeast U.S.: Expect typical scattered afternoon thunderstorms, driven by heating — not tropical systems
Caribbean and Atlantic: No signs of organized storm activity
Thunderstorm data via Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Midsummer Preview
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33°C)
Humidity: High — muggy conditions will persist
Rain: Afternoon storms likely in areas, but short-lived and localized
Winds: Light and variable
Thunderstorm data via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Know What to Watch For
Now’s a great time to sharpen your hurricane awareness:
Follow daily updates from Cat5Prep and the National Hurricane Center
Brush up on storm formation basics — including the roles of sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and the Saharan Air Layer
Update your hurricane supplies and family communication plan
Looking Ahead: Stay Ready
While the tropics are quiet now, conditions are steadily shifting. Record-breaking ocean heat, reducing wind shear, and a moistening atmosphere all point toward a potentially active late June and July. The calm won’t last forever — use this time to prepare.
Stay safe. Stay informed. Stay ready with Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 12, 2025: Dusty Skies, Quiet Tropics
The Atlantic basin remains quiet with no tropical activity expected over the next week. Strong Saharan dust suppresses storm development and reduces air quality across Florida, but warming waters and easing wind shear hint at increased hurricane potential later in June.
As we move through the second week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the basin remains quiet. There are no active tropical cyclones, no areas of interest, and no expected development over the next 7 days, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 2 AM EDT outlook. While this calm is typical for early June, forecasters are keeping an eye on evolving conditions that could shift toward tropical development later this month.
Atlantic Basin: Still and Stable
No tropical systems are on the map, and the 7-day outlook remains clear. The Atlantic basin continues its quiet streak, consistent with climatology for early June. However, this calm will not last forever, and underlying signals suggest more favorable conditions could emerge by late June or early July.
Satellite image courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Warm and Ready
Ocean waters across the Atlantic basin are trending warm, offering potential fuel for future storms.
Gulf of America (Mexico): Low to mid-80s°F (28–30°C), above average in many spots.
Western Caribbean: Warm and supportive of tropical development later in the season.
Main Development Region (MDR): Warmer than normal for this time of year, laying the groundwork for long-track systems from Africa.
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Slowly Trending Toward Favorable
While the Atlantic remains quiet, the atmosphere is showing signs of gradual change.
Wind Shear remains moderate to high across parts of the Caribbean and central Atlantic, still limiting storm formation. However, global models suggest a slow reduction in shear over the coming weeks.
Mid-level moisture is increasing across the Caribbean and Gulf—helpful for deep convection and thunderstorms.
These subtle shifts are typical precursors to an uptick in tropical activity as the season matures.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: Strong and Dusty
A massive plume of Saharan dust is stretching across the Atlantic and reaching Florida and the Gulf Coast today.
The dry air and strong upper-level winds associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are suppressing tropical development.
This dust layer is also reducing air quality and visibility in parts of Florida and the Southeast, especially for those with respiratory conditions.
The SAL is expected to remain dominant into mid-to-late June before it begins to weaken.
Dust/SAL data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Mostly Local and Non-Tropical
Convective activity across the Atlantic basin is minimal and disorganized.
Florida: Hazy skies and isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected, but nothing tropical in nature.
Western Caribbean and Off the U.S. East Coast: Scattered showers remain unorganized.
Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Dusty Skies, Humid Air
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33°C)
Skies: Hazy due to Saharan dust
Rain Chances: Scattered PM thunderstorms possible
Air Quality: Reduced in some areas—sensitive groups should take precautions
Winds: Light and variable
Rain data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Protect Your Lungs and Finalize Your Plan
Use the quiet to finalize your hurricane prep, especially while dusty skies dominate:
Limit outdoor activity if you’re sensitive to dust or pollen
Replace or clean air filters in your home and car
Check that your family communication plan and evacuation routes are up to date
Store key websites in your browser bookmarks: hurricanes.gov, Cat5Prep.com
Looking Ahead: The Table Is Being Set
While the tropics are calm today, the pieces are slowly moving into place for increased activity later this month. Warm waters, a gradual easing of wind shear, and rising moisture hint at a more active pattern on the horizon. Stay vigilant, and check back daily for updates.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 11, 2025: Quiet Tropics Continue Amid Rising Possibilities
he Atlantic basin remains calm on June 11, 2025, with no tropical storms or disturbances expected over the next week. However, warming sea surface temperatures and easing atmospheric barriers hint at increased hurricane activity later this month. Stay prepared with daily updates from Cat5Prep.com.
The twelfth day of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season opens with calm conditions—no tropical storms, depressions, or areas being actively monitored. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), no tropical cyclone formation is expected over the next seven days. The basin remains in an early-season lull, but the combined presence of warm water and easing atmospheric barriers demands continued attention.
Atlantic Basin: Clear Today, But Shifts Are Underway
Active Systems: Zero
Disturbances: None
Tropical Formation Outlook: No development expected through June 18, 2025.
This state of inactivity is consistent with early June climatology. Still, meteorologists point out that subtle environmental shifts are in motion beneath the surface.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: A Growing Foundation
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Western Caribbean: Steady low- to mid‑80s °F (27–29 °C), ideal for fuel if storms form
Main Development Region (MDR): Sea surface temperatures are trending above normal for early June
These warm waters persist as a critical energy reserve for potential fast-moving tropical systems.
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear & Moisture: Gradual Improvements
Wind Shear: Moderate to high across much of the basin, suppressing storm development
Moisture: Midlevel humidity is slowly climbing in the Gulf and Caribbean—supporting the formation of deeper convection
This evolving balance suggests the atmosphere may be priming for tropical cyclones in the coming weeks.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: A Continuing Deterrent
An active plume of Saharan dust covers the central and eastern Atlantic, suppressing convection and reinforcing vertical wind shear
This protective layer is expected to weaken by late June, enabling better conditions for tropical wave development
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Local, Non-Tropical
Florida & Southeast U.S.: Expect isolated afternoon storms—standard for this time of year
Western Caribbean: A few clusters of showers persist but remain disorganized
Central Atlantic: Remains convection-free with no signs of tropical wave development
Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast (Statewide)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: Moderate to high—classic muggy summer conditions
Rain: Scattered midday and afternoon thunderstorms
Winds: Light and steady
Rainfall data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Check NOAA Weather Radio
Take advantage of quiet skies to:
Test your NOAA Weather Radio
Confirm you are signed up for mobile and text alert services
Ensure your emergency gear is functional and accessible
Staying alert now reduces stress later.
Looking Ahead: Remain Alert, Not Alarmed
While no tropical formations are expected through June 18, the convergence of:
Persisting warm SSTs
Weakening wind shear
And waning Saharan dust
set the stage for increased activity during the latter half of June.
Stay connected to Cat5Prep.com for your daily update and tracking as the tropical season progresses.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 9, 2025: Tropical Tranquility Continues
No storms are expected this week as the Atlantic hurricane season stays quiet. Warm waters and shifting wind patterns suggest activity could increase later in June. Stay prepared with today’s full update.
The ninth day of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season dawns with quiet conditions—no active storms or signs of tropical development are present. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirms that no tropical cyclone formation is expected in the Atlantic Basin over the next seven days. It's a typical early-June lull, but with warming waters and shifting atmospheric dynamics, conditions may change quickly.
Atlantic Basin: Clear Skies, No Areas of Concern
No active tropical cyclones
No disturbances or systems being monitored
7-day outlook shows no development expected
This continued calm aligns with seasonal norms—but forecasters are keeping a cautious eye on the evolving environment.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Warm and Watchful
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Western Caribbean: Sea surface temperatures remain in the low‑to‑mid‑80s °F (27–29 °C), sufficient to fuel tropical systems.
Main Development Region (MDR): SSTs are gradually rising, though not yet at peak summer levels.
These ongoing warm waters provide a key energy source for future storm formation.
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data courtesy of Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Still Mixed, Not Conducive
Wind Shear: Moderate to high shear persists, particularly in western Caribbean and central Atlantic—suppressing thunderstorm organization.
Moisture Levels: While mid-level atmospheric moisture is increasing, it's not yet sufficiently abundant or widespread to support cyclone development.
Together, these factors continue to limit tropical activity.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: A Persistent Block
A strong plume of dry, dusty Saharan air remains entrenched over the central and eastern Atlantic.
This Saharan Air Layer (SAL) injects dryness and wind shear that further inhibit storm formation.
Expect suppression to continue into mid-June when SAL influence typically begins to decline fox35orlando.com.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Routine, Non-Tropical
Florida & Southeast U.S.: Scattered afternoon storms—typical for early June.
Western Caribbean: A few isolated, disorganized cells persist, but show no signs of development.
Eastern Atlantic: Quiet and without organized convection.
These systems are seasonal and not related to hurricane development.
Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast (All Regions)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: Moderate to high, creating a muggy atmosphere
Rain: Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening storms
Winds: Light and variable
A classic early-summer day with palm trees swaying but no storm threats.
Rainfall forecast courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Review Evacuation Plans
Use this calm window to double-check your evacuation readiness:
Reconfirm your evacuation zone and route.
Update your household emergency plan, including pets and special needs.
Keep contact numbers accessible, especially local officials and emergency services.
Test your NOAA weather radio and ensure alerts are activated on mobile devices.
Looking Ahead: Still Calm, But Eyes Remain Open
No tropical development is forecast this week, but the environment is slowly warming and becoming more favorable:
Warm water concentrations persist
Wind shear may decrease in the coming weeks
Moisture levels are increasing regionally
While it's still quiet, conditions are edging toward potential activity. Continue to check in daily for updates as Cat5Prep.com monitors the evolving season.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 5, 2025: A Weak Low, a Wet Southeast, and a Watchful Eye
June 5 brings continued calm in the Atlantic, with no named storms and no areas of concern. But warm sea surface temperatures and slowly shifting atmospheric conditions suggest more activity may be on the way later this month.
The fifth day of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season begins with calm skies and no tropical activity on the horizon. While this early June quiet is typical, forecasters are closely watching for subtle atmospheric shifts that may usher in increased activity later in the month. Now is the perfect time to double-check your emergency plans while the weather remains cooperative.
Atlantic Basin: No Immediate Concerns
As of the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) update (8 PM EDT June 4 or the upcoming 2 AM EDT June 5 outlook):
No active tropical cyclones
No areas of interest under investigation
No development expected within the next 7 days
This quiet pattern aligns with the early season lull seen in most years before conditions ramp up later in June and July.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Warming Trend Continues
Ocean heat—an essential ingredient for tropical storm formation—is building across the Atlantic:
Gulf of America (Mexico): Widespread low to mid-80s°F (28–30°C), running above average
Western Caribbean: Seasonally warm, primed for potential development in coming weeks
Main Development Region (MDR): Temperatures are climbing faster than usual for early June, laying a foundation for future storms
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear & Moisture: Still Mixed, Slowly Improving
Atmospheric conditions aren’t yet fully supportive of tropical formation, but change is underway:
Wind Shear: Still moderate to high in the western Caribbean and central Atlantic—strong enough to disrupt organization. Long-range models show a gradual easing expected later in June
Moisture: Mid- and lower-atmosphere humidity is rising in the Gulf and Caribbean, hinting at increasing thunderstorm potential
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: Strong, But Temporary Barrier
The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) remains a major suppressing force across the tropical Atlantic:
Dry, dusty air and associated wind shear prevent tropical waves from organizing
This layer is expected to weaken by mid-to-late June, removing a key obstacle to development
Saharan Air Layer data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Typical Early Summer Patterns
No tropical cyclones—but thunderstorm activity continues in familiar places:
Florida: Scattered afternoon storms expected from daytime heating
Western Caribbean: Some disorganized convection is present but lacks structure
Off the U.S. East Coast: No significant organized convection at this time
Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast – Early Summer Vibes Across the Peninsula
Expect a classic early summer day throughout Florida:
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33°C) statewide
Humidity: Elevated levels bringing a muggy, tropical feel all day
Rain: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms likely, mostly brief and localized
Winds: Light and variable, with gentle breezes in many areas
Stay hydrated and be prepared for brief showers if you’re out and about this afternoon!
Radar data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Verify Emergency Contact Information
Use this calm stretch to get communication-ready:
Update your family contact plan—make sure everyone knows who to call
Register for local emergency alerts via text or email
Bookmark vital sites like hurricanes.gov and Cat5Prep.com
Looking Ahead: Calm Now, But Stay Ready
No development is expected in the coming week—but the groundwork is being laid:
Warm waters across the basin
Easing wind shear on the horizon
Moisture and instability beginning to rise
The tropics may be quiet today, but the story of the 2025 hurricane season is just beginning. Stay informed, stay ready—and check back tomorrow for the next Cat5Prep.com update.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 3, 2025: Conditions Ripening Beneath the Calm
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season starts quietly, but today, June 3, 2025, the National Hurricane Center identifies a new low-pressure area off the Southeastern U.S. coast. Conditions are slowly becoming more favorable for storm development this week.
The third day of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season begins much like the last—quiet skies and no named systems. But meteorologists are watching closely. While there are no storms on the map, the ingredients for tropical cyclone formation are slowly assembling. Sea surface temperatures are rising, atmospheric inhibitors are weakening, and thunderstorm activity is beginning to build in key regions. It’s still early—but don’t get too comfortable.
Atlantic Basin: New Area of Interest and Overall Quiet
As of yesterday afternoon’s update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a new area of low pressure has been identified just off the southeastern United States coast:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form near or offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast in the next couple of days.
If it remains offshore, it could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics later this week while tracking northeastward at 10 to 15 mph.
Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (near 0%)
Formation chance through 7 days: Low (10%)
While development is currently unlikely, this is the first flagged area of interest in the Atlantic this season — a reminder that conditions are slowly trending more favorable. Models will continue to be monitored for any shifts in track or intensity.
At this time, no direct impacts are expected for the U.S. mainland, but boaters and beachgoers along the Southeast Coast should monitor local marine conditions later this week.
Otherwise, the basin remains quiet:
No active tropical cyclones
No other areas of interest
No tropical development expected in the next 7 days
A quiet start like this is typical for early June but it’s not a signal to let your guard down. The long-range outlook hints at increasing activity potential by mid-to-late June, especially in the western Caribbean and Gulf of America (Mexico).
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Storm Fuel Is Already in Place
Warm waters are the engine that powers hurricanes, and the Atlantic is already running hot:
Gulf of America (Mexico): 2–4°F above average, with widespread 86°F+ (30°C) readings
Western Caribbean: Elevated SSTs continue to build near Central America and Cuba
Main Development Region (MDR): Trending warmer than normal, with the potential to support long-track storms later this season
These above-average temperatures are primed to support rapid intensification once storm systems begin to form.
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear & Moisture: A Shifting Balance
Wind shear—the atmospheric force that disrupts hurricane development—is weakening, especially in the Caribbean and Gulf. At the same time, moisture levels in the lower and mid-atmosphere are rising.
This combination supports stronger thunderstorms and vertical cloud development—key precursors for tropical formation.
Wind-shear Map Image Courtesy of : https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: Dust Is Holding Steady—for Now
A broad stretch of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is still active across the central and eastern Atlantic:
Dry, stable air disrupts tropical wave development
Increased wind shear limits vertical convection
Dust particles reduce storm cloud organization
While the SAL continues to offer some protection in the eastern Atlantic, it’s expected to weaken later this month—removing one of the last early-season barriers to storm growth.
Satellite dust data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Not Just Summer Weather
While today’s thunderstorms aren’t tropical, their growing presence is important:
Western Caribbean: Clusters of convection are forming, though currently disorganized
Southeastern U.S. & Gulf Coast: Expect afternoon storms, fueled by heat and humidity
These storm systems help prime the atmosphere for eventual tropical development and are often the earliest signs of areas of interest.
Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: A Classic, Stormy Summer Day
Expect another typical early June day across the Sunshine State:
North Florida: Upper 80s, low humidity, mostly clear
Central Florida: Around 90°F with building humidity and scattered PM storms
South Florida: Mid-80s, muggy, with increased chances of storms after 2 PM
Though today’s storms are not tropical, the overall pattern is signaling a slow seasonal transition.
Forecast radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Get Ahead While It’s Quiet
This calm window is the perfect time to prepare:
Review your hurricane plan and local evacuation routes
Restock your hurricane kit—especially water, batteries, and medications
Take photos of your home and valuables for insurance
Sign up for local emergency alerts and bookmark Cat5Prep.com
Know the difference between a watch and a warning before one is issued
Looking Ahead: No Storms Now, But Don’t Let That Fool You
Though nothing is spinning in the Atlantic today, all signs point to rising potential in the weeks ahead. Sea temperatures are already warm enough to support hurricanes. Wind shear is fading. Moisture and thunderstorm activity are increasing.
We are not forecasting imminent development—but the environment is evolving fast.
Check back tomorrow for your daily hurricane update from Cat5Prep.com.