Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 16, 2025: Quiet Tropics as Record Heat Builds
The Atlantic basin remains calm today, with no active tropical cyclones and no areas of concern on the National Hurricane Center’s latest 2 AM EDT outlook. Despite the tranquil skies, beneath the surface trend lines reveal warming seas and evolving atmospherics that could pave the way for an active season.
Atlantic Basin: Clear Skies, No Threats
Tropical formation is not expected for the next 7 days—confirmed in both the graphical and textual 7-day outlooks.
This calm is typical for mid-June, but the stage is setting for future change.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Fueling the Season
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Western Caribbean continue averaging low- to mid-80s °F (27–30 °C), offering ample energy for storm development.
Main Development Region (MDR) is trending warmer than average—an early indicator of readiness for stronger tropical systems.
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Atmospheric Setup: Still Suppressive—For Now
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind shear remains moderate to high across key basins, limiting storm formation.
Mid-level moisture is gradually increasing, especially in Caribbean and Gulf regions—a sign atmospheric support is growing.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) still dominates much of the eastern Atlantic, suppressing convection and serving as a barrier to tropical wave development.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Forecast Conditions: Afternoon Storms Only
Florida & the Southeast U.S. continue seeing afternoon, summer-type thunderstorms—not related to any tropical systems.
Caribbean and Atlantic remain quiet without organized convection.
These storms mark the seasonal norm but are not indicative of tropical threats.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast (Statewide)
Highs: Low to mid‑90s °F (32–34 °C) in Central and South; upper‑80s in North Florida.
Humidity: High—typical early-summer conditions.
Rain: Scattered afternoon and evening showers.
Visibility: Slight haze possible due to lingering dust.
Winds: Light and variable, gusty near storm cells.
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Review and Readiness
This calm window is the best time to:
Verify evacuation routes and local zones.
Ensure NOAA Weather Radio and mobile alerts are active.
Double-check emergency kits, supplies, and documentation.
Stay informed through trusted sites like Cat5Prep.com and hurricanes.gov.
Looking Ahead: Steady Calm, But With Building Potential
Though no storms are expected this week, underlying conditions are subtly shifting:
Sea temperatures remain warm.
Rising moisture levels and decreasing wind shear may favor development.
The Saharan dust layer is weakening, especially in the eastern Atlantic.
Keep monitoring—what’s calm today could transition into tomorrow’s tropical threat.
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