Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 30, 2025: Development Chances Remain Low
As July ends, the Atlantic Basin sees active tropical waves, but development chances remain low for the next 7 days. Discover the latest on sea surface temperatures, wind shear, Saharan Air Layer, and the outlook from CAT5Prep.com.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
** Due to technical issues on the GOES satellite imagery provider's end, we are currently unable to display real-time satellite imagery.
The Atlantic Basin remains active with multiple tropical waves stretching from the African coast to the Caribbean, yet no organized development is expected in the near term. Wind shear and Saharan dust continue to suppress cyclone formation despite warm ocean temperatures and a moistening atmosphere in the western basin.
As we close out July, conditions are slowly trending toward a more favorable setup for storm development heading into August.
Atlantic Basin Overview
As of the 8:00 AM EDT NHC Tropical Weather Outlook:
No active tropical cyclones.
Three tropical waves span the Atlantic:
Wave near 35°W (eastern Atlantic): Disorganized, little convection.
Wave near 50°W (central Atlantic): Producing scattered thunderstorms, no surface low.
Wave in the eastern Caribbean: Weak and encountering dry air and shear.
NHC Development Odds:
Next 48 hours: 0%
Next 7 days: 0%
Key Environmental Factors
SST data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind data at 850hPa from Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
29–31°C (84–88°F) in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.
MDR remains slightly warmer than normal.
Wind Shear:
Moderate across the central Atlantic and Caribbean.
Suppressing vertical development for now.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
Strong dry air across much of the basin.
Limiting convection and keeping tropical waves disorganized.
Moisture:
Gradually increasing in the western Atlantic and Caribbean.
A factor to monitor as wind shear begins to ease.
Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America)
A weak surface trough in the central Gulf is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
No signs of organization, and the NHC does not expect development at this time.
High pressure remains dominant elsewhere, with calm conditions expected through midweek.
Florida Weather
Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with high humidity.
Scattered thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening from sea breeze interactions.
No tropical threats to Florida at this time.
Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Outlook & Preparedness
Coast XP14R Flashlight
4500 lumen LED flashlight with Slide Focus®, USB-C recharge, and 5 light modes. Built for serious storm prep.
The Atlantic remains broadly quiet for now, but the environment is slowly shifting. A steady wave train emerging off Africa and increasingly favorable SSTs point to a more active window in early to mid-August.
Now is the time to double-check hurricane kits, review evacuation zones, and prepare while the weather allows.
TL;DR – July 30 Snapshot
No tropical development expected this week.
Three tropical waves are present but remain weak and disorganized.
SAL and shear are limiting development.
Conditions should become more favorable by early August.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 28, 2025: Waves Active, Tropics Stable for Now
Tropical waves are stirring across the Atlantic, but no development is expected over the next 7 days. Warm waters and weakening wind shear suggest conditions could shift heading into August.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
As the final days of July unfold, the Atlantic basin remains active with several tropical waves but no immediate threats. While sea surface temperatures and atmospheric moisture continue to support development, upper-level wind shear and dry air are keeping conditions broadly stable—though this pattern may shift as we enter August.
Atlantic Basin: Multiple Waves, No Cyclones (Yet)
As of 8:00 AM EDT from the National Hurricane Center:
No active tropical cyclones
Two tropical waves are under watch:
Tropical Wave 1: Located near 40°W, moving westward at 10–15 kt with scattered convection. Still disorganized but under observation.
Tropical Wave 2: Recently emerged off Africa near 23°W, with convection along its southern flank. It’s embedded in a moist environment and will be monitored for future development.
No development expected over the next 7 days, but long-range models suggest increasing favorability for late next week.
Gulf of Mexico: Moisture Returns, But No Development
A weak surface trough lingers in the Bay of Campeche, producing isolated showers and thunderstorms.
No signs of tropical development at this time.
Expect scattered showers and storms across the eastern and central Gulf through Tuesday, driven by daytime heating and lingering mid-level moisture.
Caribbean Sea: Typical Summer Conditions
Fresh to strong trades continue in the central and southwest Caribbean, particularly off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela.
Some isolated thunderstorms are active near Panama and the Windward Passage.
A tropical wave moving through the eastern Caribbean is enhancing convection, but remains disorganized.
Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR): Slowly Activating
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs):
MDR: 28–29°C (82–84°F), well above climatological norms.
Gulf and Caribbean: 30–31°C (86–88°F), fuel-ready.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Dry air continues to suppress convection over much of the MDR, but signs show it is beginning to weaken, allowing thunderstorm clusters to persist longer.
Wind shear: Still present in the central Atlantic, but trending downward.
SST data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Outlook: Typical Late-July Storms
North Florida: Partly sunny with highs in the upper 80s. Afternoon storms possible.
Central Florida: Hot and humid (highs ~91°F) with scattered PM thunderstorms likely.
South Florida: Muggy with highs in the upper 80s. Thunderstorms expected after 2 PM.
Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Inventory Your Storm Gear
Now is a good time to audit your hurricane kit:
Check expiration dates on food, batteries, and meds.
Reassess your generator fuel supply and run a quick test.
Confirm family members know where the supplies are stored.
Looking Ahead: Eyes on Early August
While July is ending quietly, model ensembles hint at better organization potential in the MDR during the first 7–10 days of August.
A Kelvin wave (a burst of upper-level moisture and instability) may traverse the Atlantic next week, setting the stage for more robust wave activity.
Local Performance Cap
6-panel snapback with laser-perf vents in ripstop fabric. Stylish, durable, and ready for the elements.
TL;DR – July 28, 2025 Hurricane Snapshot
No active storms or tropical depressions
Two tropical waves being watched, neither near development
Gulf and Caribbean: Moist, unsettled, but not organized
MDR: Warm and slowly transitioning to a more favorable pattern
Florida: Classic summer pattern — hot, humid, and stormy afternoons
Outlook: Low risk this week, but August may bring change
Stay informed at Cat5Prep.com, and use this calm to finalize your preparations.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 19, 2025: Still Down South – Pacific Watches Erick
The Atlantic remains storm-free, but Hurricane Erick—a powerful Category 4 storm—gains strength in the Eastern Pacific. Learn what this means for the Atlantic basin and why now is the time to prepare.
The Atlantic basin remains quiet today, with no active tropical cyclones and no development expected over the next 7 days, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest 2 AM and 8 AM EDT outlooks nhc.noaa.gov. While the Atlantic sleeps, attention is turning to a powerful system in the Pacific.
Atlantic Basin: Calm Waters, No Alerts
There are still no named storms or areas under tropical monitoring. The graphical and textual 7-day outlooks show zero development chance, meaning the basin continues its quiet stretch early in the season . Early June silence isn’t unusual—but with warm seas in place, conditions could shift quickly.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Pacific Perspective: Erick Now a Category 4
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Erick has rapidly intensified into an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 storm with 145 mph sustained winds, now only about 70 miles west-southwest of Puerto Ángel, Mexico, heading for landfall.
This storm is expected to bring destructive winds, brutal rainfall (8–16 inches), mudslides, and severe coastal flooding across southern Mexico.
Sea Surface Temperatures: Atlantic Warming Continues
Gulf & Western Caribbean: SSTs remain warm at 84–88 °F, maintaining energy supply for potential tropical systems.
Main Development Region (MDR): Ocean temperatures are also above normal, setting the stage for Atlantic activity later in the season.
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Suppressive Air Masses
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind shear: Still moderate to high across key development areas, limiting near-term storm formation.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): A persistent dust plume continues to suppress early-season activity in the eastern Atlantic.
Moisture: Slowly increasing in the Gulf and western Caribbean, helping build storm potential.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Daily Weather: Standard June Patterns
Florida & Southeast U.S.: Afternoon and evening thunderstorms remain widespread but non-tropical.
Caribbean & Atlantic: Quiet and storm-free, with no signs of developing systems.
Air Quality: Possible haze in Florida due to advancing Saharan dust.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast (June 19)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: High—typical muggy summer
Rain: Scattered PM showers and thunderstorms
Visibility: Hazy in some areas
Winds: Light, occasional gusts near storm cells
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Cross-Basin Awareness
Even without Atlantic storms, Pacific activity underscores a critical point:
Monitor systems across basins, not just the Atlantic
Understand conditions building globally—warm seas, dust, wind shear shifts
Use this calm time to update emergency contacts, test NOAA radios, and finalize supply kits
Looking Ahead: Calm Now, But It Won’t Last
No Atlantic activity is expected this week, but elevated ocean temperatures, decreasing wind shear, and diminishing dust suggest a shift is coming. Hurricane Erick in the Pacific could hint at similar atmospheric boosts affecting the Atlantic soon.
Stay tuned for daily updates from Cat5Prep.com—the next tropical trigger could arrive sooner than you think.
*As an Amazon Associate, we earn from qualifying purchases.