Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 29, 2025: Active Waves, Quiet Forecast
Several tropical waves are moving across the Atlantic, but none show signs of imminent development. Warm waters persist, and August may bring change.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
Though the Atlantic basin remains free of tropical cyclones, several tropical waves are shifting across the ocean—each monitored for organization. Conditions remain broadly unfavorable for development, but the warm ocean and evolving atmospheric patterns suggest potential change in the weeks ahead.
Atlantic Basin: No Cyclones, But Several Waves in Motion
According to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center does not expect any tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days. However, recent Tropical Weather Discussion reveals:
A tropical wave near 19°W (south of 19°N), moving westward at about 10 kt, with scattered convection between 10°N–13°N and east of 23°W.
Another wave near 38°W, south of 18°N, moving slowly (~5 kt), associated with a 1012 mb low. A scatterometer pass noted fresh to strong winds within 120 nm and scattered convection between 5°N–12°N.
None of these features currently exhibit a closed circulation or organization, but their movement into warmer waters bears monitoring.
Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean: Calm Signals, Minimal Development Risk
No disturbances are being tracked in the Gulf at this time.
Surface analyses and satellite imagery show mostly typical trade-wind patterns and minor convection near Central America and the Windward Passage.
A dominant high-pressure ridge maintains light to moderate winds and minimal seas across most of the region.
Environmental Snapshot: Barriers Remain, Fuel Accumulating
Sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean are well above average, delivering ample heat energy for potential development in early August.
The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) continues to suppress convection in the eastern Atlantic. Convection in tropical waves remains shallow and short-lived.
Upper-level wind shear remains moderate to high, especially over the central MDR, limiting vertical storm organization.
SST data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Late-July Heat & Afternoon Storms
Highs across central and south Florida: Near 90–92 °F under humid conditions.
Rain chance: 40–50% with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms fueled by sea-breezes and daytime heating.
Wind conditions: Light and variable inland, becoming east-southeasterly near the coast.
No tropical impacts are anticipated over the next 24 hours.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Keep Monitoring Those Waves
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Even when storms don’t form, their precursors still matter:
Review evacuation zones and routes now—not during an emergency.
Check the status of local email lists or alert systems for tropical watches.
Confirm your household has working weather radios and updated contact lists.
Looking Ahead: August May Bring Increased Activity
While development is unlikely in the next 5–7 days, the combination of:
Warm ocean temperatures,
Decreasing wind shear projections, and
Multiple tropical waves entering the MDR
suggests the system is slowly shifting toward a more favorable environment as August begins.
TL;DR
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Flood‑ready outlook for July 29, 2025
No tropical cyclones in the basin; no development expected this week.
Two tropical waves showing scattered convection—watching for mid‑Atlantic changes.
Warm Gulf and Caribbean waters offer fuel if shear and dry air ease up.
Florida sees typical summer weather—heat and scattered afternoon storms.
Prep recommendation: finalize hurricane plans, stay informed, remain ready.
For full updates, continue visiting Cat5Prep.com daily.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 28, 2025: Waves Active, Tropics Stable for Now
Tropical waves are stirring across the Atlantic, but no development is expected over the next 7 days. Warm waters and weakening wind shear suggest conditions could shift heading into August.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
As the final days of July unfold, the Atlantic basin remains active with several tropical waves but no immediate threats. While sea surface temperatures and atmospheric moisture continue to support development, upper-level wind shear and dry air are keeping conditions broadly stable—though this pattern may shift as we enter August.
Atlantic Basin: Multiple Waves, No Cyclones (Yet)
As of 8:00 AM EDT from the National Hurricane Center:
No active tropical cyclones
Two tropical waves are under watch:
Tropical Wave 1: Located near 40°W, moving westward at 10–15 kt with scattered convection. Still disorganized but under observation.
Tropical Wave 2: Recently emerged off Africa near 23°W, with convection along its southern flank. It’s embedded in a moist environment and will be monitored for future development.
No development expected over the next 7 days, but long-range models suggest increasing favorability for late next week.
Gulf of Mexico: Moisture Returns, But No Development
A weak surface trough lingers in the Bay of Campeche, producing isolated showers and thunderstorms.
No signs of tropical development at this time.
Expect scattered showers and storms across the eastern and central Gulf through Tuesday, driven by daytime heating and lingering mid-level moisture.
Caribbean Sea: Typical Summer Conditions
Fresh to strong trades continue in the central and southwest Caribbean, particularly off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela.
Some isolated thunderstorms are active near Panama and the Windward Passage.
A tropical wave moving through the eastern Caribbean is enhancing convection, but remains disorganized.
Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR): Slowly Activating
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs):
MDR: 28–29°C (82–84°F), well above climatological norms.
Gulf and Caribbean: 30–31°C (86–88°F), fuel-ready.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Dry air continues to suppress convection over much of the MDR, but signs show it is beginning to weaken, allowing thunderstorm clusters to persist longer.
Wind shear: Still present in the central Atlantic, but trending downward.
SST data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Outlook: Typical Late-July Storms
North Florida: Partly sunny with highs in the upper 80s. Afternoon storms possible.
Central Florida: Hot and humid (highs ~91°F) with scattered PM thunderstorms likely.
South Florida: Muggy with highs in the upper 80s. Thunderstorms expected after 2 PM.
Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Inventory Your Storm Gear
Now is a good time to audit your hurricane kit:
Check expiration dates on food, batteries, and meds.
Reassess your generator fuel supply and run a quick test.
Confirm family members know where the supplies are stored.
Looking Ahead: Eyes on Early August
While July is ending quietly, model ensembles hint at better organization potential in the MDR during the first 7–10 days of August.
A Kelvin wave (a burst of upper-level moisture and instability) may traverse the Atlantic next week, setting the stage for more robust wave activity.
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TL;DR – July 28, 2025 Hurricane Snapshot
No active storms or tropical depressions
Two tropical waves being watched, neither near development
Gulf and Caribbean: Moist, unsettled, but not organized
MDR: Warm and slowly transitioning to a more favorable pattern
Florida: Classic summer pattern — hot, humid, and stormy afternoons
Outlook: Low risk this week, but August may bring change
Stay informed at Cat5Prep.com, and use this calm to finalize your preparations.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 14, 2025: Gulf Disturbance Signals Season’s Shift
A weak trough near Florida could organize as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico this week. While not yet a named system, heavy rain and flooding may impact Florida and Gulf Coast states. Stay informed and prepared.
The Atlantic basin remains mostly calm, but the tropics are waking up. A trough of low pressure is moving off the Southeast U.S. coast and entering the Gulf of Mexico, where it's now being monitored for potential tropical development later this week.
Atlantic Basin: Early Signs of Activity
No named tropical cyclones currently.
The trough is producing disorganized clouds and showers along the Southeast coast and across Florida.
According to the NHC, this system has about a 30% chance of organizing into a tropical depression or storm over the next seven days, with a 10% chance in 48 hours.
If it develops, it could move west across the Gulf toward Louisiana and Texas by late week.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Foundation: Ocean & Atmosphere Basics
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 2–4°F above average in the Gulf, Caribbean, and Main Development Region—providing the warm fuel needed for development.
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind shear remains moderate-to-strong across much of the basin; however, conditions in the northeastern Gulf may become more favorable for storm organization.
Saharan dust continues to suppress development in the eastern Atlantic, but this trough is well west of that region.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Local Weather: Rain and Thunderstorms Ahead
Florida: Expect multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms today through Wednesday as the trough crosses the peninsula.
Gulf Coast (AL, MS, LA, TX): Showers, thunderstorms, and flooding potential increase by mid-to-late week.
Attention zones: Tampa, Orlando, Dolphins could see over 6″ of rain; Houston and Mobile might experience heavy downpours and gusts.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip: Heavy Rain Trumps Wind Now
With flooding as the primary threat:
Ensure your home’s drainage systems are clear.
Prepare sandbags and supplies if you live in low-lying or flood-prone zones.
Keep flashlight, battery-powered radio, and emergency kits on hand.
Continue monitoring NOAA Weather Radio and local alerts as storms advance.
Looking Ahead: Watch This Week Carefully
As the trough moves into the Gulf, developing into a tropical depression or storm is possible.
Even without full tropical development, heavy rain and localized flooding pose a risk to the Southeast U.S. and Gulf states.
This activity could become the season’s first system to affect U.S. mainland—track it closely over the next 3–7 days.
Stay tuned to Cat5Prep.com for your next daily update—this season may be shifting right before our eyes.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 20, 2025: Tropics Hold Quiet as Atlantic Patterns Begin to Shift
The Atlantic remains calm with no storms expected, but warm waters and shifting atmospheric patterns hint that the quiet may not last. A developing Atlantic Niña could hit a reversal and amplify activity later this season.
As we close out the third week of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, the basin remains quiet. No named storms or tropical disturbances are being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and no development is expected over the next 7 days. However, behind this calm lies a subtle shift in Atlantic patterns that may influence storm activity in the weeks ahead.
Atlantic Basin: All Clear—for Now
As of the latest NHC update (8 AM EDT, June 20):
No active tropical cyclones
No areas of interest
No tropical development expected through late June
This type of quiet is typical for mid-June, historically a transitional period before activity ramps up in July and peaks from August to October.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Still Hot, Still Fuel
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across much of the Atlantic remain well above normal:
Gulf of America (Mexico): Mid to upper 80s°F (29–31°C), 2–4°F above average
Western Caribbean: Similar anomalies, particularly near the Yucatán and Cuba
Main Development Region (MDR): Still warming gradually, trending toward conditions that could support long-track storms later this season
Warm SSTs are a critical energy source for hurricanes—and the heat is already in place.
Sea Surface Temperature (ECMWF Analysis) via Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Neutral ENSO, but Atlantic Cooling Briefly
While the Pacific remains in an ENSO-neutral phase, a rare “Atlantic Niña” has recently emerged—marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic off the coast of Africa, as seen in the NOAA Coral Reef Watch chart below with a pocket of blue.
This can temporarily suppress early-season hurricane formation by reducing convection and stabilizing the atmosphere
However, models indicate that this pattern may reverse in July, shifting into a warmer Atlantic Niño phase, which typically boosts tropical activity
So, while the Atlantic Niña may be limiting development now, forecasters are closely watching the timing of this transition. Safe money would be on a reversal, which could super charge storm breeding.
Overall Scope of Sea Temperature Anomalies
Saharan Air Layer: Still Limiting Tropical Waves
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
A strong Saharan Air Layer (SAL) remains entrenched across the tropical Atlantic:
Dry, dusty air suppresses thunderstorm development
Increases stability and upper-level wind shear
Common in June, but typically weakens by mid-July
For now, SAL continues to act as a shield against organized tropical development in the Main Development Region.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data via Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Mostly Seasonal and Local
While no tropical organization is underway, convection continues to pop up in key regions:
Florida and Gulf Coast: Afternoon storms due to heat and humidity
Western Caribbean: Scattered convection, but unorganized
Eastern Atlantic: A few tropical waves exiting Africa remain weak and embedded in dry air
These thunderstorms are typical for the season and do not currently show signs of tropical development.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33°C)
Humidity: High
Afternoon Storms: Scattered area of thunderstorms likely after 2 PM
Winds: Light and variable, with storm gusts possible
Flooding in low-lying areas is possible if storms linger over one area.
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Restock Pet Supplies
Don’t forget your furry family members when preparing for hurricane season:
Have a two-week supply of pet food, medications, and water
Keep vaccination records and vet contact info in your go-bag
Prepare a small pet first-aid kit
Label pet carriers clearly and store them where they’re easy to grab
Looking Ahead: Transition Coming
For now, the Atlantic basin is calm. But forecasters continue to watch:
Warm SSTs
Easing wind shear
Gradual return of moisture
Potential reversal from Atlantic Niña to Atlantic Niño
All signs point to a more active environment forming as we move into July. Stay alert, stay prepared, and check back tomorrow for your daily hurricane outlook from Cat5Prep.com.
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 19, 2025: Still Down South – Pacific Watches Erick
The Atlantic remains storm-free, but Hurricane Erick—a powerful Category 4 storm—gains strength in the Eastern Pacific. Learn what this means for the Atlantic basin and why now is the time to prepare.
The Atlantic basin remains quiet today, with no active tropical cyclones and no development expected over the next 7 days, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest 2 AM and 8 AM EDT outlooks nhc.noaa.gov. While the Atlantic sleeps, attention is turning to a powerful system in the Pacific.
Atlantic Basin: Calm Waters, No Alerts
There are still no named storms or areas under tropical monitoring. The graphical and textual 7-day outlooks show zero development chance, meaning the basin continues its quiet stretch early in the season . Early June silence isn’t unusual—but with warm seas in place, conditions could shift quickly.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Pacific Perspective: Erick Now a Category 4
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Erick has rapidly intensified into an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 storm with 145 mph sustained winds, now only about 70 miles west-southwest of Puerto Ángel, Mexico, heading for landfall.
This storm is expected to bring destructive winds, brutal rainfall (8–16 inches), mudslides, and severe coastal flooding across southern Mexico.
Sea Surface Temperatures: Atlantic Warming Continues
Gulf & Western Caribbean: SSTs remain warm at 84–88 °F, maintaining energy supply for potential tropical systems.
Main Development Region (MDR): Ocean temperatures are also above normal, setting the stage for Atlantic activity later in the season.
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Suppressive Air Masses
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind shear: Still moderate to high across key development areas, limiting near-term storm formation.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): A persistent dust plume continues to suppress early-season activity in the eastern Atlantic.
Moisture: Slowly increasing in the Gulf and western Caribbean, helping build storm potential.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Daily Weather: Standard June Patterns
Florida & Southeast U.S.: Afternoon and evening thunderstorms remain widespread but non-tropical.
Caribbean & Atlantic: Quiet and storm-free, with no signs of developing systems.
Air Quality: Possible haze in Florida due to advancing Saharan dust.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast (June 19)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: High—typical muggy summer
Rain: Scattered PM showers and thunderstorms
Visibility: Hazy in some areas
Winds: Light, occasional gusts near storm cells
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Cross-Basin Awareness
Even without Atlantic storms, Pacific activity underscores a critical point:
Monitor systems across basins, not just the Atlantic
Understand conditions building globally—warm seas, dust, wind shear shifts
Use this calm time to update emergency contacts, test NOAA radios, and finalize supply kits
Looking Ahead: Calm Now, But It Won’t Last
No Atlantic activity is expected this week, but elevated ocean temperatures, decreasing wind shear, and diminishing dust suggest a shift is coming. Hurricane Erick in the Pacific could hint at similar atmospheric boosts affecting the Atlantic soon.
Stay tuned for daily updates from Cat5Prep.com—the next tropical trigger could arrive sooner than you think.
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