Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – May 29, 2025: A Calm Before the Storm?

As we approach the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, the tropics are offering us a brief moment of calm. As of today, May 29, 2025, there are no active tropical systems in the Atlantic basin. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports no significant disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, or the Gulf of Mexico. But behind this stillness lies a set of powerful climatic conditions primed to ignite what could be a very active hurricane season.

*Data Courtesy of National Hurricane Center

A Season Poised for Action

Earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its seasonal outlook, forecasting a 60% chance of an above-average hurricane season. According to their projections, the Atlantic could see:

• 13 to 19 named storms

• 6 to 10 hurricanes

• 3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger)

These predictions are based on a confluence of environmental indicators—particularly warm sea surface temperatures, neutral ENSO conditions, and weakened trade winds—each contributing to a higher potential for tropical cyclone formation.

Sea Surface Temperatures: The Ocean’s Warning Signal

The ocean is one of the most powerful drivers of hurricane activity, and right now, it's sounding the alarm.

*Data Courtesy of NOAA

Record-Warm Waters in the Atlantic

The North Atlantic is currently experiencing its third-warmest May on record, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) well above seasonal averages. The heat isn't limited to open waters either—the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea are also running unusually warm, creating an extensive reservoir of potential hurricane fuel.

Warm SSTs are a critical component of storm development, providing the energy needed to sustain and intensify tropical systems. Water temperatures of 80°F (27°C) or higher are generally needed to support cyclogenesis, and many areas in the tropical Atlantic are already surpassing this threshold.

Marine Heatwave Near Florida

Perhaps more concerning is the marine heatwave stretching from Florida through the Bahamas and into the western Caribbean. These waters are seeing temperatures typical of mid-summer, not late May, a sign of the accelerating heat trend across global oceans.

This marine heat is already influencing regional weather patterns by:

• Increasing humidity levels

• Amplifying rainfall intensity

• Fueling convective thunderstorms across the southeastern U.S.

These factors don’t directly spawn hurricanes—but they create a more volatile, moisture-rich environment in which tropical disturbances can evolve rapidly once they form.

*Data Courtesy of Coral Reef Watch —Data May Be Delayed

Saharan Dust: Nature’s Fire Extinguisher

While warm seas suggest heightened hurricane potential, one atmospheric feature is acting as a temporary barrier: Saharan dust.

Each year, dust from the Sahara Desert is swept across the Atlantic by strong easterly winds, forming what’s known as the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). This dry, dusty air mass stretches thousands of miles and can significantly inhibit storm development by:

• Drying out the mid-level atmosphere

• Suppressing cloud formation

• Increasing vertical wind shear

This week, a new surge of Saharan dust is drifting over Florida, leading to hazy skies and lowered air quality across the peninsula. While visually striking—especially at sunrise and sunset—the presence of this dust is a temporary check on early-season storm activity.

Meteorologists expect the SAL to weaken in the coming weeks, especially as July and August approach. When that happens, the Atlantic will become more conducive to sustained storm development.

Saharan Dust Data Courtesy of Windy.com

Local Conditions: Florida's East and Gulf Coasts

While the tropics are currently calm, Florida isn’t escaping turbulent weather.

Today, the East and Gulf coasts of Florida are experiencing classic pre-summer instability:

• High humidity levels are combining with daytime heating to create strong atmospheric lift

• Afternoon thunderstorms are likely, particularly inland, with some storms potentially producing:

  • Hail

  • Damaging wind gusts

  • Frequent lightning

Temperatures are expected to peak in the low 90s (°F) with overnight lows in the low 70s, maintaining high dew points and muggy conditions. This type of weather is not directly related to hurricane activity, but it’s a reminder that the region is entering its most active weather period of the year.

Data Courtesy of Windy.com

Meteorological Factors Influencing the 2025 Season

Several broader climate factors are shaping the hurricane outlook for 2025. Let’s break them down:

ENSO-Neutral Conditions

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase, meaning neither El Niño (which suppresses Atlantic hurricanes) nor La Niña (which enhances them) is present.

This neutral backdrop means that other conditions—like SSTs, wind shear, and moisture availability—will have a stronger influence this year. Historically, ENSO-neutral years can swing either way, but combined with record-warm waters, the scales may tip toward higher activity.

Weakened Trade Winds

Forecast models show weaker-than-average trade winds over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. This is important because strong trade winds often blow potential storms apart before they can organize. In contrast, weaker winds allow storms to build vertically and tap into deep moisture columns—ideal conditions for hurricane formation and intensification.

Dust's Waning Influence

As mentioned earlier, the Saharan dust currently suppressing tropical activity is expected to decline as we head deeper into June and July. With fewer dust outbreaks and a moister atmosphere, the door will open wider for tropical waves emerging off Africa to develop into organized systems—particularly during the peak season from August to October.

Looking Ahead: Time to Prepare

Right now, the Atlantic might seem calm—but all indicators point to an explosive potential for storm activity in the months ahead. This quiet period is an ideal window for preparedness. Make sure to follow our Prep Blog for tips and equipment that are our go-to.

What You Should Do Now

• Check your hurricane supply kits. Make sure they include essentials like non-perishable food, water, batteries, flashlights, medications, and pet supplies.

• Review your evacuation plan. Know your route, your shelter options, and how to communicate with family members.

• Stay informed. Set alerts from trusted sources like:

  • National Hurricane Center (www.nhc.noaa.gov)

  • Local weather apps and news stations

  • NOAA Weather Radio

• Follow emerging tropical waves. Just because a storm hasn’t formed yet doesn’t mean the atmosphere isn’t building toward one.

Eyes on the Horizon

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season may be starting slow, but the environmental backdrop suggests this quiet won’t last. Between record-warm waters, a neutral ENSO, weakening dust layers, and favorable wind conditions, we may be on the edge of one of the more active seasons in recent memory.

If you're in a hurricane-prone area, take today’s calm as a gift—and a warning. Use this time to prepare, stay vigilant, and be ready for whatever the skies may bring in the weeks ahead.