Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 7, 2025: Dexter Becomes Extratropical; Invest 96L Watches Intensify
Tropical Storm Dexter is fading, but Invest 96L is strengthening in the Atlantic with a 60% development chance. Meanwhile, another Gulf disturbance lingers. Get the latest real-time update.
Tropical Storm Dexter is nearing its transition into a post-tropical system over the North Atlantic, while a tropical wave designated Invest 96L is gaining strength and has a high potential to develop over the coming days.
Atlantic Basin Summary
Tropical Storm Dexter has sustained winds near 50 mph and is centered around 40.6°N 52.1°W. It's moving east-northeast at approximately 18 mph and is expected to become a strong extratropical low within the next several hours.
Invest 96L, a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic, now carries a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm within seven days. It's gaining better organizational structure amidst gradually supportive conditions.
A low-pressure area offshore of the Southeast U.S. retains a 30–40% development chance over the week, but is expected to remain well off the coast and should not pose a land threat.
Key Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
Waters across the Gulf, Caribbean, and Main Development Region remain 2–4°F above average, with locations near southwest Florida reaching nearly 90°F—providing abundant energy for storm formation.Wind Shear:
Wind shear is gradually easing, especially in the central and eastern Atlantic, offering more opportunities for systems like Invest 96L to organize further.Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
Dry and dusty SAL air still suppresses convection across parts of the basin, but its influence may be waning—especially in regions where moisture is increasing.Seasonal Context:
Meteorologists note an uptick in activity as August unfolds, in line with seasonal climatology and current environmental signals including marine heat waves.
Outlook Summary
Tropical Storm Dexter is at the tail end of its life cycle, now transitioning to an extratropical system. The main attention now shifts to Invest 96L, showing increasing potential for development, and a weaker disturbance offshore of the Southeast U.S.—both deserving close monitoring as we move further into the season.
TL;DR – August 7 Snapshot
Tropical Storm Dexter is becoming extratropical and poses no land threat.
Invest 96L carries a 60% chance of development this week.
Another disturbance offshore the Southeast U.S. has 30–40% development odds but remains away from land.
Warm ocean temperatures and easing shear are creating a more favorable environment.
The active season is ramping up—stay prepared and stay tuned.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 6, 2025: Dexter Weakens Over Open Atlantic; Two Systems Now Under Watch
Tropical Storm Dexter continues weakening in the open Atlantic, while two systems—off the Southeast U.S. coast and near Africa—are now under watch. SAL and wind shear are still limiting major development, but warm SSTs raise future potential.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
Tropical Storm Dexter continues moving northeast and weakening, while the National Hurricane Center is now monitoring two additional disturbances—one off the Southeast U.S. coast and another tropical wave across the eastern Atlantic—with modest development potential over the coming week.
Atlantic Basin Status
Tropical Storm Dexter is currently well north of Bermuda, sustained winds near 40–45 mph, moving east-northeast at ~13 mph. It's expected to transition to a post-tropical cyclone by mid-week and present no threat to land.
Disturbance near Southeast U.S. coast (“Invest AL95”): Located offshore of Florida, now has a 40% development chance over the next 7 days. While significant intensification is unlikely, it may bring increased rain and marine impacts along the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coastal areas.
Tropical wave near ~30°W off Africa: Moving west-northwest, scattered convection observed. NHC assigns a 50% chance of development within 7 days, as it enters warmer seas and potentially weaker shear zones.
Key Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Gulf and Caribbean waters remain very warm (29–31 °C), offering the thermal fuel necessary for storm development as conditions evolve.
Wind Shear: Moderate to high shear prevails across much of the central Atlantic, limiting organization of existing systems. Models hint that shear may ease near the western MDR later this month.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): A dry, dusty SAL plume still covers much of the eastern and central Atlantic, suppressing mid- to upper-level moisture and inhibiting thunderstorm persistence.
Atmospheric Moisture: Improving across the western basin, especially near the Caribbean, though heavy dry air remains in many parts of the Atlantic.
Gulf & Caribbean Update
No disturbances in the Gulf or Caribbean seas.
High-pressure dominance maintains generally dry conditions, with scattered showers typical of early August.
Expect stable marine conditions without organized tropical activity.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf of America - Sandwich
GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean - Sandwich
Florida Forecast
Temperature & Humidity: Highs near 90°F under humid, muggy conditions.
Rain Chances: 40–50% for afternoon thunderstorms powered by sea breeze activity—not tropical in nature.
Winds: Light and variable inland, becoming southeast near the coast.
No tropical threats are expected to impact Florida today.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip for the Day: Monitor Beach & Marine Conditions
Though Dexter is offshore, it is generating dangerous rip currents along the U.S. East Coast—from Florida through New England. Stay behavior-aware and heed coastal safety warnings even without landfall forecast.
Outlook
Dexter is weakening but remains watchable over open waters. The disturbance off Florida and the wave from Africa are the two main areas of tropical interest, each with moderate development odds this week. Persistent SAL and shear are still limiting, but conditions may shift toward favorability as August evolves.
TL;DR – August 6 Summary
Dexter weakening, staying over the open Atlantic.
Disturbance near Florida coast: 40% chance of development, may bring rain and marine effects.
Wave off Africa (~30°W): 50% development odds in 7 days.
Warm SSTs support activity, but SAL and wind shear remain inhibitory.
No immediate threats to Florida; hazardous rip currents possible.
Watch conditions as hurricane season builds toward mid‑August.
Stay prepared and stay informed — daily updates available at Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 5, 2025: Dexter Weakening, Two Other Areas Monitored
Tropical Storm Dexter weakens far from land, while two other systems—one off Africa and one near the Southeast U.S.—are being watched. Although development chances remain modest, conditions are expected to become more favorable later this month.
Tropical Storm Dexter is slowly weakening but not yet dissipated, while two additional disturbances now carry up to a 30–50% chance of development within the next week. Environmental conditions remain a limiting factor for most areas, but shift slowly toward greater activity as August progresses.
Atlantic Basin Summary
Tropical Storm Dexter
Located roughly 250–275 miles north-northwest of Bermuda, Dexter has maximum sustained winds near 45 mph and is moving northeast at ~12–15 mph. While it is weakening, it may reintensify as a post-tropical cyclone late this week, posing no direct land threat.
Other Areas Under Watch
A low-pressure area offshore of the Southeast U.S. (Invest AL95) carries a 30% chance of development over 7 days. Slight organization is possible as it moves eastward, but land impacts are unlikely.
A tropical wave near ~30°W off Africa shows scattered convection and is assigned a 50% chance of development within 7 days, reflecting improving model support.
Key Environmental Conditions
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Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and MDR waters range between 29–31 °C (84–88 °F)—ample heat energy for storm formation if atmospheric conditions cooperate.Wind Shear:
Wind shear remains moderate to high across much of the Atlantic, especially in the central basin, limiting storm organization despite occasional lower-shear pockets emerging near the western Gulf.Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
A large SAL plume continues across the eastern and central Atlantic. Its dry, dusty air suppresses convection and hampers the vertical growth of tropical disturbances.Moisture:
While mid-level humidity is increasing over the western tropical Atlantic, SAL and shear are keeping much of the central MDR too dry for sustained thunderstorm development.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Overview
No disturbances are currently being monitored.
A stationary front and ridge of high pressure maintain light to moderate winds and calm seas across the Gulf and Caribbean.
Scattered showers remain typical for early August and are not linked to tropical systems.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf
GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean
Florida Forecast
Highs: Near 90 °F with high humidity.
Afternoon thunderstorms: 40–50% chance from sea breeze activity.
Winds: Light and variable inland, shifting southeast near the coast.
No tropical storm impacts are expected today.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day
Make sure your alert systems are working and up-to-date: test county-level emergency alerts, NOAA weather radios, and storm tracking apps. Confirm evacuation plans with household members and review where supplies are stored.
Outlook
Dexter poses no threat to land, but the tropical wave near Africa and Invest off the U.S. Southeast coast warrant close attention. August is historically when activity ramps up; conditions may become more favorable later in the week.
TL;DR – August 5 Snapshot
Tropical Storm Dexter weakening, drifting north but may reintensify offshore.
Two areas monitored: AL95 (30% chance) and African wave (~50% chance) for potential development.
SSTs remain warm, but SAL and wind shear continue to suppress many systems.
No tropical threats to Florida today—just typical summer storms.
Expect activity to increase as August progresses.
Stay ready and informed with daily updates at Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 4, 2025: Tropical Storm Dexter Forms; Two Other Systems Under Watch
Tropical Storm Dexter forms off the East Coast with no land threat. Meanwhile, a tropical wave off Africa and a low near the Southeast U.S. are being monitored as conditions slowly shift toward a more active period.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
Tropical Storm Dexter has developed in the western Atlantic, while two additional systems are being monitored for potential development. Conditions across the basin remain dynamic—with storm formation possible in coming days.
Atlantic Basin Summary
Tropical Storm Dexter: The fourth named storm of the 2025 season formed late Sunday night, now located ~255 miles northwest of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph, and the system is moving east-northeast. It’s expected to remain over open water and become post-tropical by Wednesday with no threat to U.S. land.
Disturbance AL95: A non-tropical low pressure area off the Southeast U.S. coast is being monitored with medium (30%) development chance over 7 days. Movement is east-northeast under weak shear, and formation may remain offshore.
New tropical wave emerging off Africa (~30°W): Forecast to track westward with scattered convection. The formation chance is 50% over 7 days, indicating growing potential for a tropical depression if favorable conditions develop.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
Waters in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and MDR remain warm at 29–31°C (84–88°F)—providing ample energy if atmospheric conditions become supportive.Wind Shear:
Still moderate to high across much of the Atlantic, limiting vertical storm structure. However, shear may relax in the western basin later this month.Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
Persistent dry, dusty air continues to suppress convection, especially over the eastern and central Atlantic. This remains a major inhibiting factor for newly emerging systems.Moisture:
Improving moisture levels seen in the western Caribbean and Gulf, though much of the basin remains too dry for sustained disturbance development.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Region
No tropical systems currently forming.
A dominant high-pressure ridge promotes generally calm, hot conditions across the Gulf and Caribbean.
Scattered showers remain typical for August, with no organized convection tied to tropical disturbances.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf
GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to near 90°F under humid conditions.
Afternoon thunderstorms: 40–50% chance, typically from sea breeze convergence—non-tropical in origin.
Winds: Light and variable inland; southeasterly near the coast.
No tropical storm impacts are expected today.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day
Stay connected to emerging tropical watches and alerts: sign up for NOAA and county-level emergency notifications, test weather radios, and review your communication plans with family or household members.
Looking Ahead
Though Dexter poses no immediate risk to land, the emerging wave and mid-Atlantic trough (AL95) warrant attention. The signal is clear: early August may mark the beginning of a more active period in the tropical Atlantic.
TL;DR – August 4, 2025 Summary
Tropical Storm Dexter forms off the East Coast—staying far offshore and weakest by midweek.
Low pressure (AL95) offshore Southeast U.S. with 30% development chance.
New wave off Africa (~30°W) entering the Atlantic—50% chance of development in 7 days.
SSTs supportive but SAL and shear remain inhibitory.
No threat to Florida; typical summer thunderstorms expected.