Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 13, 2025: Tropics Quiet, Gulf Trough Under Watch
No named storms today, but a low-pressure trough drifting toward the Gulf of Mexico could bring rain and potential tropical development later this week.
The Atlantic basin remains calm today, with no active named storms. However, meteorologists are tracking a low-pressure trough emerging off the Southeast U.S. coast, gradually drifting into the Gulf of Mexico. This system has a low (20%) chance of organizing into a subtropical or tropical system later this week .
Atlantic Overview: Quiet But Evolving
As per the 8 AM EDT NHC Tropical Weather Outlook:
No active tropical cyclones across the basin.
The Southeast U.S. trough is expected to push into the Gulf by Tuesday.
Formation chances: <1% in next 48 hours, ~20% over 7 days .
Though not tropical now, its movement may increase rainfall and raise attention if organization begins.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: A Warm Platform
The Gulf of Mexico continues to show SSTs 2–4°F above average, providing a warm environment for storm development later this season.
Caribbean and Main Development Region (MDR) SSTs also remain elevated, keeping hurricane fuel accessible .
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Atmospheric Setup: Suppression in Play
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind shear remains moderately strong across much of the basin, hindering storm development.
Saharan dust is still prevailing over the eastern Atlantic, suppressing early-season storm growth.
Moisture levels are slowly increasing in the Gulf and Southeast U.S., signaling gradual support for convection.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Regional Weather: Rain on the Rise
Expect increased showers and thunderstorms along the Southeast U.S. and Gulf coasts as the trough approaches.
Florida will likely see scattered afternoon storms, typical for July, especially as the trough draws moisture inland.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Be Rainwise
Even without strong winds, heavy rainfall can pose serious hazards:
Track the trough’s movement—it could bring localized flash flooding to Gulf coast areas.
Ensure storm drains and sump pumps are clear and functional.
Keep sandbags and quick barriers ready if you're in low-lying zones.
Test your NOAA Weather Radio and mobile alerts to stay ahead of rainfall warnings.
Looking Ahead: Waters Stay Warm—Storms Could Spark
Although the tropics are peaceful now, the combination of warm ocean temperatures, easing atmospheric inhibitors, and growing seasonal moisture suggest readiness for evolution. The trough may serve as the first spark of Gulf activity, with a watchful eye needed through mid- to late-week.
Stay alert and check back tomorrow for your latest update from Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 1, 2025: Opening Day, But All’s Quiet… For Now
June 1 marks the official start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. No storms are currently active, but rising sea surface temperatures and favorable patterns suggest a potentially busy season ahead.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins today, June 1, and while the tropics are currently quiet, forecasters are already eyeing the environmental conditions that could lead to a very active season. For residents in hurricane-prone regions, now is the time to prepare—not relax.
Atlantic Basin: Calm Start to the Season
As of the latest update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), there are no active tropical systems, no areas of concern, and no immediate threats expected over the next seven days.
This quiet opening is not unusual. Early June often sees little activity in the deep tropics. However, this calm is not expected to last. Sea surface temperatures are running well above average, and the atmospheric setup is trending toward conditions favorable for development later this month.
Satellite data courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Running Hot
The Atlantic basin is notably warm for this early in the season, providing more than enough fuel for potential tropical cyclones.
Gulf of America (Mexico): 2 to 4°F above normal, with widespread areas exceeding 86°F (30°C)
Caribbean Sea: Similar temperature anomalies, especially in the western basin
Main Development Region: Continues trending above average
Historically, warmer-than-average waters correlate with more frequent and intense storms.
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
ENSO Neutral: La Nada Takes Over
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in a neutral phase. With El Niño in the rearview and La Niña not yet in play, we enter what meteorologists call "La Nada"—a neutral state that often removes inhibiting influences on hurricane formation.
Decreased wind shear is expected across the Atlantic basin
A neutral ENSO often correlates with average to above-average storm development
Other patterns, like the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), may become more influential later in the month
Saharan Air Layer: Dust Still in Play
The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) continues to stream across the Atlantic from Africa, bringing with it dry, dusty air that temporarily suppresses tropical development.
Inhibits cloud formation and convection
Increases atmospheric stability
Introduces vertical wind shear
The SAL typically begins to weaken later in June, removing one of the key atmospheric barriers to tropical development.
Saharan Dust SAL data courtesy of Windy.com
Eastern Pacific: Alvin Weakens
Tropical Storm Alvin, the Eastern Pacific's first named storm of the season, formed earlier this week and is now weakening.
Location: Approximately 710 miles south of Baja California
Movement: Northwest at 13 mph
Maximum Winds: 50 mph, weakening
Forecast: Expected to dissipate within 36 hours
Though Alvin poses no threat to land, its formation signals that tropical systems are beginning to stir in the broader region.
Alvin wind accumulation in Eastern Pacific data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Statewide Conditions Typical for June
Across the state of Florida, today's weather reflects classic early summer patterns.
North Florida: Highs in the upper 80s, lows in the mid-60s, low humidity, mostly clear skies
Central Florida: Highs near 90°F, afternoon humidity and a slight chance of thunderstorms
South Florida: Highs in the mid-80s, lows in the upper 70s, muggy with isolated afternoon storms
These are the kinds of conditions that typically precede the onset of more frequent tropical activity in late June and July.
Temperature across Florida data courtesy of Windy.com
Preparation Tips: Start Now, Not Later
With the season now officially underway, take time today to prepare while skies are still clear.
Review your family emergency plan and evacuation zone
Check and restock your hurricane kit
Confirm your insurance coverage and take property photos
Sign up for local emergency alerts and follow trusted forecast sources
Bookmark Cat5Prep.com and the National Hurricane Center
Looking Ahead
Although the season begins on a quiet note, forecasters warn that this calm is likely temporary. Record sea surface temperatures, a neutral ENSO, and easing wind shear all point to increased tropical activity as we move deeper into June.
Stay ready, stay informed, and check back daily for new updates from Cat5Prep.
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