Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 20, 2025: A Couple Systems In The Atlantic
Hurricane Erin is holding as a Category 2 storm offshore, producing rip currents and coastal hazards along the East Coast. Meanwhile, the Gulf and Florida remain quiet, though tropical waves in the Atlantic are being monitored.
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Current Tropical Systems
Hurricane Erin:
Erin has weakened slightly but remains a Category 2 hurricane as it tracks northeast, well offshore of the U.S. East Coast. The storm continues to generate dangerous swells, rip currents, and pockets of coastal flooding, especially from the Outer Banks northward into the Mid-Atlantic and New England. While direct landfall is not expected, coastal impacts remain significant.Disturbance in the Central Atlantic:
A tropical wave near 45°W continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions feature warm sea surface temperatures but are partially offset by moderate wind shear and Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust intrusion. Development chances: 30% over 7 days.Far Eastern Atlantic Wave (off Africa):
A fresh wave near 25°W is emerging with scattered convection. It remains disorganized but will be monitored as it progresses westward. Development chances: low (20% over 7 days).
Gulf of America (Mexico) Outlook
The Gulf remains broadly quiet, with high pressure dominating and keeping conditions mostly stable. While moisture pockets are leading to afternoon thunderstorms, there are no signs of tropical development at this time. Sea surface temperatures are very warm (29–31°C), so the region will continue to be monitored closely heading into late August.
Florida Forecast
Florida remains under the influence of high humidity and afternoon sea-breeze thunderstorms, typical for August. Outer rainbands from Erin are not expected to impact the peninsula. No immediate tropical threats are forecast for the state in the near term.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Key Environmental Factors
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): 29–31°C across the Gulf and Caribbean, MDR slightly above average — supportive for development.
Wind Shear: Moderate over the central Atlantic, helping limit wave organization.
Moisture: Gradual increase in the western Atlantic, but SAL dust continues to suppress deep convection in parts of the MDR.
Outlook Summary
Hurricane Erin remains a strong offshore system, generating significant surf and rip currents along the East Coast.
Central Atlantic disturbance carries moderate development potential but faces shear and dust challenges.
Gulf of Mexico and Florida remain calm with no immediate tropical concerns, though warm waters warrant close monitoring later this month.
TL;DR
Hurricane Erin is now a Category 2 offshore system, still driving dangerous surf and rip currents up the East Coast. The Gulf of Mexico and Florida stay quiet with only scattered thunderstorms, while the central Atlantic wave shows some development potential but is being held back by wind shear and Saharan dust.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 26, 2025: Gulf Moisture Lingers, Deep Tropics Show Early Signs of Change
Moisture continues to stream into Texas and Louisiana from the Gulf, while tropical waves in the deep Atlantic hint at a pattern shift. No named storms yet, but conditions are slowly becoming more favorable.
The Atlantic basin remains free of any named tropical cyclones, but not without activity. A persistent disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico continues to funnel tropical moisture into parts of Texas and Louisiana, while multiple tropical waves in the deep Atlantic are stirring early signals of future development.
This mid-season quiet is not unusual—but subtle shifts are beginning to show across the basin. As we approach August, conditions will slowly lean more favorable for storm formation.
Gulf of Mexico: Persistent Moisture, Low Development Potential
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR – GOES-19 Air Mass Composite – July 26, 2025 (Gulf)
A weak surface trough remains in the western Gulf of Mexico, associated with disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Current Status: No surface circulation, limited upper-level support
Rain Impacts: Coastal Texas and Louisiana remain under intermittent showers and thunderstorms through the weekend
Development Chance: Still near 0%—but the system is being monitored for changes
Elsewhere in the Gulf, conditions remain stable, with light to moderate winds and seas of 2–5 ft across most zones.
Tropical Waves: Marching Westward, Holding Potential
Several tropical waves remain active in the central and eastern Atlantic:
Wave near 40°W: Moving west at ~10–15 kt, producing scattered convection. Still disorganized but in warm waters with marginal wind shear.
Wave near 23°W (off Africa): Embedded in the monsoon trough. Convection flaring along southern flank; too early for development but bears watching.
None of these waves currently show signs of imminent organization, but they are tracking into warmer waters and a slowly improving environment.
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR – GOES-19 Sandwich Composite – July 26, 2025 (Tropical Atlantic)
Sea Surface Temperatures: Primed for August
Gulf of Mexico: 86–88°F across most areas
Caribbean Sea: Upper 80s°F, especially in the western basin
Main Development Region (MDR): 82–84°F, 1–2°F above average
The Atlantic remains historically warm, a key ingredient for fueling tropical cyclones as we near peak season.
SST data courtesy of Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Gradual Shift Unfolding
Wind Shear: Still moderate in the central Atlantic, but weakening trends are forecast
Moisture: Mid-level moisture increasing, especially south of 20°N
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Still active, but thinning between 35°W–50°W
These slow, quiet changes signal a transition to a more favorable setup in early August.
Dust & SAL data from Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Today’s Weather:
High: 90°F
Conditions: Partly sunny, humid
Storm Risk: Scattered inland thunderstorms after 2 PM
Winds: Light and variable
Prep Reminder: Monitor drainage around your property during afternoon storms
Rain forecast data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Check Local Shelters & Pet Plans
Locate your nearest hurricane shelter—especially if you're new to your area
Identify which shelters allow pets (many do, but require pre-registration)
Add leash, crate, and vaccination documents to your go-kit
Looking Ahead: Window of Quiet Before August Heats Up
Although no named systems are expected in the next 5–7 days, the setup across the basin is gradually shifting. The Gulf disturbance remains weak, but new tropical waves are aligning with less hostile conditions.
This is the time to finalize your hurricane supplies, prep your property, and stay informed.
Check back tomorrow for another update from Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 24, 2025: Gulf Disturbance Monitored as Tropics Remain Broadly Quiet
A weak disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico brings rain to the Gulf Coast, but tropical development chances remain low. Meanwhile, the broader Atlantic remains quiet.
As we near the close of July, the Atlantic remains largely stable, but the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a weak disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico for any signs of development. While conditions remain broadly unfavorable for rapid formation, subtle shifts in the atmosphere suggest we’re approaching a more active phase of the season.
Atlantic Basin: Broad Stability, But Eyes on the Gulf
As of the 8:00 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is reporting:
No active tropical cyclones
One disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico with low development chances
No tropical cyclone formation expected elsewhere over the next 7 days
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR – GOES-19 Air Mass Composite – July 24, 2025
Gulf of Mexico: Surface Trough Brings Rain, Low Development Risk
A broad surface trough located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms. While upper-level winds remain hostile to development, the NHC notes this system could persist for several days as it drifts slowly westward.
Formation chance (7 days): Low (near 10%)
Main impacts: Localized heavy rain along portions of the Gulf Coast (especially Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama)
Conditions: Disorganized thunderstorm activity, no defined surface circulation
Expect periodic showers and thunderstorms over coastal waters and possible heavy rainfall inland through the weekend.
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Caribbean Sea: Breezy Trades, Typical Mid-Summer Weather
No disturbances of concern
Fresh easterly trade winds dominate the central and southern basin
Scattered convection near the coasts of Central America (Panama, Nicaragua) due to the East Pacific Monsoon Trough
Seas remain moderate, with wave heights of 4 to 7 feet in open waters.
Wind forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Wave height forecast (ECMWF Waves) courtesy of Windy.com
Atlantic Tropical Waves: Multiple Waves Marching West
GOES-19 - Sector view: Tropical Atlantic - Sandwich - July 24, 2025
Several tropical waves are present across the Atlantic:
Central Atlantic Wave (~35W): Slowly advancing west with scattered convection, no signs of organization yet.
New Wave Near 23W (Far East Atlantic): Recently introduced by the NHC; embedded within the monsoon trough, showing convective activity near its southern flank.
Low Near 08N44W: Part of the broader monsoon trough; helping to enhance scattered thunderstorms but remains disorganized.
These features will be monitored over the next 7–10 days as they move into warmer waters and potentially more favorable conditions.
850 hPa wind data courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Dry Air Suppressing Growth
The Saharan dust plume continues to stretch across the central Atlantic, limiting tropical development by reducing moisture and increasing wind shear. However, long-range forecasts suggest the SAL may begin to thin as we move into August, potentially opening the door for more development.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust data courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Hot and Getting Hotter
Ocean temps across the basin remain above average:
Gulf of Mexico: 30–31°C (86–88°F)
Caribbean Sea: 29–30°C (84–86°F)
Main Development Region (MDR): 28–29°C (82–84°F)
These conditions are supportive of development—but only if wind shear and dry air ease.
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs: 89–91°F
Rain Chance: 50–60%, mainly afternoon thunderstorms driven by seabreeze interaction
Winds: Light southeast winds
Hazards: Isolated downpours, brief gusty winds
Rain forecast data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Review Your Local Evacuation Zone
During quiet days, take time to review your local evacuation maps and zones:
Know when you would leave and where you’d go.
Print hard copies in case cell service fails.
Share your plan with family and neighbors.
Find evacuation information from your county emergency management office or state disaster preparedness website.
Looking Ahead: A Turn Toward Activity?
While the current atmosphere is keeping storms at bay, sea temperatures and tropical wave activity suggest a transition toward increased potential in early August. The Gulf disturbance is not expected to develop significantly, but it reminds us that the quiet can shift quickly.
Stay informed and prepared—Cat5Prep.com will continue tracking it all, daily.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 18, 2025: Tropics Stay Quiet as Pacific Storms Steer Focus
The Atlantic remains storm-free on June 18, with no tropical systems expected over the next 7 days. But warming ocean temps and an active Pacific raise long-range concerns.
The Atlantic basin remains calm today, with no active tropical cyclones and no systems being monitored for development in the National Hurricane Center’s latest 2 AM EDT outlook. This early-season quiet continues, but shifting global patterns—warm oceans, dust, and Pacific activity—are fueling a cautious watchfulness.
Atlantic Basin: Clear, But Keep Watching
No Atlantic systems are active, and the seven-day forecast shows no tropical development expected this week . While mid-June calm is common, meteorologists note stronger global volatility due to cross-basin interactions and shifting climate signals.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Pacific Spotlight: Tropical Storm Erick on the Rise
Wind Speed Probability Tropical Storm Erick
All eyes are on the Eastern Pacific, where Tropical Storm Erick is rapidly strengthening—forecast to become the season’s first Pacific hurricane. Though Erick poses no threat to U.S. shores, it demonstrates the early-season dynamism that Atlantic may encounter soon.
Wind Gust Accumulation Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Heat Builds Beneath the Calm
Gulf & Western Caribbean: SSTs remain well above average (84–88 °F), providing potential fuel.
Main Development Region (MDR): Water temperatures are warming and trending warmer than early June norms, laying a foundation for development later in the season.
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Saharan Dust & Atmospheric Inhibitors
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
A large plume of Saharan dust continues to stretch across the Atlantic and into the Caribbean and Southeast U.S., suppressing tropical formation and degrading air quality.
This dust layer, combined with moderate wind shear, continues to inhibit tropical systems.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Summer Rhythm
Florida & Southeast U.S.: Expect standard afternoon thunderstorms, born from daytime heating—not tropical phenomena.
Caribbean & Atlantic: Skies remain clear, with no clusters or organic storms forming.
Air Quality Alert: Sensitive groups should note haze and dust over the Southeast.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast (June 18)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: High, with muggy conditions
Rain: Isolated to scattered afternoon storms
Visibility: Reduced by dust haze in some regions
Winds: Light, stronger near storms
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Monitor Dust and Air Quality
Minimize outdoor exposure if you’re sensitive to dust
Clean or replace filters in HVAC systems
Keep monitoring dust levels through local air-quality alerts
Continue hurricane planning while skies are calm
Looking Ahead: Still Quiet, But Global Trends Are Stirring
No Atlantic storms are expected this week. However:
SSTs remain elevated
Wind shear may ease gradually
Saharan dust may shift or thin
Eastern Pacific activity—like Erick—offers insight into potential future Atlantic behavior
Use this calm period to prepare. Tomorrow could bring the first tropical ripple, so stay connected to Cat5Prep for ongoing updates.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 10, 2025: Quiet Continues, But Observers Stay Alert
No storms in sight, but sea surface temperatures continue to rise and wind shear is gradually easing—signs that the quiet start to the 2025 hurricane season may not last.
The tenth day of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season opens with calm skies and no immediate threats. The latest update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirms no active systems and no expected tropical cyclone formation over the next seven days. Early June often starts this way, but with sea surface temperatures climbing and atmospheric factors slowly shifting, vigilance remains important.
Atlantic Basin: No Systems in Sight
No active tropical cyclones
No areas of interest
No development anticipated within 7 days
This outlook aligns with the expected early-season lull, but conditions are steadily changing.
Satellite data courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Warming Trend Continues
Gulf of Mexico & Western Caribbean: Still in the low to mid‑80s °F (around 27–29 °C), ideal for fueling storms when other factors permit
Main Development Region (MDR): Running warmer than average for early June—enough to support development later this month
These warm waters are critical as the season progresses.
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Mixed Signals
Wind Shear: Moderate to high across much of the basin, particularly within the western Caribbean and central Atlantic—limiting today’s storm potential
Moisture: Mid-level moisture appears to be on the rise, which could support future thunderstorm activity
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: A Dry Deterrent
A robust plume of Saharan dust continues to suppress tropical wave development across the eastern Atlantic and MDR
This dry layer is expected to ease by late June, removing one of the key early-season inhibitors
Saharan Air Layer data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Routine, Not Tropical
Florida & Southeastern U.S.: Expect isolated afternoon storms typical for June
Western Caribbean: A few disorganized showers and storms—no rotation or organization evident
Atlantic Ocean: Quiet, with no tropical wave activity currently observed
Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast (Statewide)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: Moderate to high—classic muggy comfort
Rain: Scattered afternoon/evening showers typical of early summer
Winds: Light and variable
Rain data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Check Evacuation Zones
With time on your side:
Confirm your evacuation zone and review the planned evacuation route
Update your family emergency contact lists
Ensure your NOAA weather radio and mobile alert settings are active
Keep local emergency management contacts accessible
Looking Ahead: Still Quiet, But Watch for Change
While no tropical development is expected this week, underlying conditions are subtly shifting:
Warm ocean waters persist
Atmospheric wind shear is forecast to gradually decrease
Moisture levels are on the rise
Saharan dust is weakening, removing suppression barriers
Early hurricane season often starts quietly—but conditions can change fast. Stay tuned to Cat5Prep.com for daily updates.