Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – September 10, 2025
Atlantic remains exceptionally calm during climatological peak; no tropical development expected
Atlantic Basin Overview
No Active Systems
Despite reaching the climatological peak of hurricane season (September 10), the Atlantic basin remains completely quiet—no tropical depressions, storms, or hurricanes are present. The National Hurricane Center’s 7-day outlook again shows no expected development.
The season's accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) across the Northern Hemisphere is currently below 60% of average, further emphasizing the unusual lull.
Last week’s disturbance—once showing high development potential near the Caribbean—dissipated after ingesting dry, dusty air from the Sahara.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Subtropics indicate record-warm SSTs, while much of the tropical Atlantic remains cooler than last year, reducing atmospheric instability and suppressing storm formation.
Atmospheric Conditions: Saharan dust plumes and a notably weak lapse rate in the atmosphere continue to inhibit convective development across the basin.
Looking Ahead: Meteorologists anticipate that activity may increase from late September into October. This is driven by the expected arrival of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and continuing La Niña trends, both of which tend to support tropical cyclone development.
Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean
No tropical threats are present. High-pressure dominance continues to maintain calm conditions, aside from normal afternoon sea-breeze thunderstorms.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Florida remains in its typical late-summer pattern: hot, humid, with scattered afternoon storms. With no tropical systems in the Atlantic or Gulf, no coastal or tropical hazards are expected this week.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Summary
The Atlantic basin is quiet, with no storms active or expected over the next 7 days.
Suppressive factors—cooler SSTs, dry air, Saharan dust, and weak atmospheric instability—continue to dominate.
Although conditions are currently unfavorable, model and observational insights suggest a potential pickup in tropical activity later this month as MJO and La Niña factors emerge.
Gulf and Florida remain unaffected, encountering only routine late-summer weather.
TL;DR – September 10 Snapshot
No activity in the Atlantic—still quiet at hurricane season peak.
Atmospheric conditions strongly suppress development: dry air, dust, and cool SSTs.
Climatology points to a possible uptick in activity toward late September/October.
Florida and the Gulf stay quiet—just the usual stormy afternoons.
