Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – September 11, 2025
On September 11, the Atlantic basin remains storm-free with no active cyclones. A tropical wave emerging off the coast of Africa has been given a 30% chance of development over the next 7 days, though environmental conditions such as wind shear, dry air, and Saharan dust remain unfavorable. The Gulf of Mexico and Florida stay calm, experiencing only typical late-summer thunderstorms.
Atlantic remains calm; weak tropical wave off Africa flagged with low chance (30%) of development over 7 days
Atlantic Basin Overview
No Active Tropical Cyclones
The Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, currently has no active tropical storms, hurricanes, or depressions. The NHC outlook confirms no formation expected in the near term.Tropical Wave Off Africa
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge offshore of West Africa by Friday. It will travel west to west-northwest at about 15 mph, over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Although conditions may allow for some gradual development, the NHC gives this wave a low chance (near 0%) over the next 48 hours, increasing to 30% over the next 7 days.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Warm in the Gulf and Caribbean (29–31 °C), supportive for storm formation there—but in the eastern tropical Atlantic, SSTs are marginal or just adequate for potential development.
Wind Shear: Moderate to high shear persists across much of the Atlantic, making rapid development unlikely.
Dry Air & Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Dry mid-level air and SAL remain strong headwinds for storm formation, especially for any tropical waves nearing the eastern Atlantic.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean
Conditions remain quiet and stable. Only routine afternoon thunderstorms are expected along coastal areas, with no tropical system showing signs of organization.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Florida continues in its typical early-September weather pattern—hot, humid, and marked by scattered afternoon thunderstorms. With no active systems in the Atlantic, Gulf, or nearby, there are no coastal or tropical threats expected in the short term. Surf and marine conditions are generally benign.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Summary
Atlantic is quiet with no active tropical storms.
Weak tropical wave off Africa has ~30% chance of development in 7 days; 0% in the next 48 hours.
Environmental factors (SSTs, shear, dry air/SAL) remain mostly unfavorable.
Gulf and Florida remain calm with routine summer convection.
TL;DR – September 11 Snapshot
No active storms in the Atlantic.
Wave off Africa has low but nonzero chance (30%) of forming in the coming days.
Hostile environment limits quick growth.
Florida and Gulf: quiet, typical late-summer weather.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – September 10, 2025
On September 10, the Atlantic basin remains calm despite being the statistical peak of hurricane season. No tropical cyclones are active, and the National Hurricane Center does not expect development over the next week. Dry air, Saharan dust, and wind shear are keeping conditions hostile to storm formation. Florida and the Gulf of Mexico remain quiet, with only the typical late-summer pattern of heat, humidity, and afternoon thunderstorms.
Atlantic remains exceptionally calm during climatological peak; no tropical development expected
Atlantic Basin Overview
No Active Systems
Despite reaching the climatological peak of hurricane season (September 10), the Atlantic basin remains completely quiet—no tropical depressions, storms, or hurricanes are present. The National Hurricane Center’s 7-day outlook again shows no expected development.
The season's accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) across the Northern Hemisphere is currently below 60% of average, further emphasizing the unusual lull.
Last week’s disturbance—once showing high development potential near the Caribbean—dissipated after ingesting dry, dusty air from the Sahara.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Subtropics indicate record-warm SSTs, while much of the tropical Atlantic remains cooler than last year, reducing atmospheric instability and suppressing storm formation.
Atmospheric Conditions: Saharan dust plumes and a notably weak lapse rate in the atmosphere continue to inhibit convective development across the basin.
Looking Ahead: Meteorologists anticipate that activity may increase from late September into October. This is driven by the expected arrival of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and continuing La Niña trends, both of which tend to support tropical cyclone development.
Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean
No tropical threats are present. High-pressure dominance continues to maintain calm conditions, aside from normal afternoon sea-breeze thunderstorms.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Florida remains in its typical late-summer pattern: hot, humid, with scattered afternoon storms. With no tropical systems in the Atlantic or Gulf, no coastal or tropical hazards are expected this week.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Summary
The Atlantic basin is quiet, with no storms active or expected over the next 7 days.
Suppressive factors—cooler SSTs, dry air, Saharan dust, and weak atmospheric instability—continue to dominate.
Although conditions are currently unfavorable, model and observational insights suggest a potential pickup in tropical activity later this month as MJO and La Niña factors emerge.
Gulf and Florida remain unaffected, encountering only routine late-summer weather.
TL;DR – September 10 Snapshot
No activity in the Atlantic—still quiet at hurricane season peak.
Atmospheric conditions strongly suppress development: dry air, dust, and cool SSTs.
Climatology points to a possible uptick in activity toward late September/October.
Florida and the Gulf stay quiet—just the usual stormy afternoons.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – September 9, 2025
TLDR Version: Click Here
Atlantic remains unusually quiet during peak season; no tropical development expected
Atlantic Basin Overview
No Active Storms
The Atlantic basin continues to be completely quiet. The National Hurricane Center’s latest outlook indicates no tropical cyclone formation is expected in the next 7 days.Tropical Waves
Although a few tropical waves are present, none show signs of sustained convection or development, remaining inactive across the Atlantic. This is stark, given we're in what is normally the most active week of the season.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Warm in the Gulf and Caribbean (~29–31 °C), but less conducive further east.
Wind Shear: Elevated shear across the basin continues to suppress tropical formation.
Dry Air & SAL: Persistent dry air and Saharan dust remain widespread, further choking off storm development.
Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean
Conditions remain stable and calm. Only typical afternoon sea-breeze thunderstorms are present along coastal areas. No tropical systems are forecast.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Florida continues in its late-summer pattern: hot, humid, with scattered afternoon thunderstorms. With no systems nearby and improving surf conditions, there are no coastal or tropical threats expected this week.
Summary
The Atlantic is fully quiet with no active storms or development expected.
This is unusual for the second week of September, historically known as the Hurricane Season peak.
Environmental conditions remain unfavorable for storm formation: wind shear, dry air, and SAL dominate.
Gulf and Florida remain calm, experiencing only routine weather patterns.
TL;DR – September 9 Snapshot
No storms or development expected; Atlantic remains at rest.
Tropical waves are inactive amid unfavorable conditions.
Environmental factors continue to suppress activity.
Florida and the Gulf stay consistent with typical late-summer weather.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – September 8, 2025
On September 8, the Atlantic remains storm-free with no tropical systems active. Two weak tropical waves are producing scattered showers but lack organization, and the National Hurricane Center expects no development over the next week. Florida and the Gulf of Mexico remain calm, experiencing only the usual late-summer heat, humidity, and afternoon thunderstorms.
TLDR Version: Click Here
Atlantic basin remains calm — no tropical development expected this week
Atlantic Basin Overview
No Active Systems
The Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of America (Mexico) remain free of tropical cyclones. The National Hurricane Center does not expect any development over the next 7 days.
Tropical Waves Present but Inactive
A wave near 20°W, east of the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing scattered showers but is not expected to organize.
Another wave between 41°W and 47°W in the central Atlantic shows some convection but remains disorganized.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Warm in the Gulf and Caribbean (~29–31 °C), but cooler in the open Atlantic, limiting storm growth.
Wind Shear: Moderate to strong across much of the basin, unfavorable for storm organization.
Dry Air & SAL: The Saharan Air Layer and widespread dry mid-level air continue to suppress deep convection and tropical development.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean
The Gulf remains quiet and stable, with only routine afternoon sea-breeze thunderstorms. No tropical development is expected.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Florida stays in its late-summer pattern of heat, humidity, and scattered afternoon thunderstorms. No tropical threats are present this week.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Summary
The Atlantic is inactive, with no storms or new development expected.
Two tropical waves are noted, but neither shows potential for near-term organization.
Environmental conditions remain unfavorable across the basin, with shear, dry air, and SAL dominating.
The Gulf and Florida remain calm, with only routine late-summer weather.
TL;DR – September 8 Snapshot
No storms in the Atlantic.
A couple of weak tropical waves, but no organization.
Shear, dry air, and SAL continue to suppress development.
Gulf and Florida remain quiet with typical afternoon thunderstorms.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – September 7, 2025
On September 7, the Atlantic remains completely calm with no tropical storms or hurricanes. The National Hurricane Center expects no development over the next 7 days. A weak tropical wave in the central Atlantic is producing scattered showers but shows no signs of organization. Florida and the Gulf of Mexico remain quiet, experiencing only typical late-summer thunderstorms.
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TLDR Version: Click Here
Atlantic remains quiet with no tropical development expected in the next week
Atlantic Basin Overview
No Active Storms
The Atlantic basin is completely calm—no tropical depressions, storms, or hurricanes are present. The NHC advises that no tropical cyclone formation is expected over the next seven days.Tropical Waves Noted
A central Atlantic wave near 41°W and 17°N, moving west at 10–15 kt, shows scattered moderate convection—but no sign of imminent development.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Still warm across the Gulf and Caribbean (~29–31 °C), but less favorable in the open Atlantic.
Wind Shear: Elevated winds aloft continue across the basin, suppressing convective organization.
Mid-Level Humidity & SAL: Dry air and Saharan dust remain widespread, further limiting storm initiation.
Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean
The Gulf remains quiet and stable, with only typical afternoon sea-breeze thunderstorms occurring along coastal areas. No tropical systems are expected to develop.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Florida continues under a late-summer pattern—hot, humid, and featuring scattered afternoon thunderstorms. With no systems nearby and improving sea conditions, no enhanced coastal risks are currently expected.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Summary
The Atlantic basin remains quiet, with no active systems or expected development in the short term.
Although tropical waves are present, environmental factors (warm SSTs excluded) are largely unfavorable across the basin.
The Gulf and Florida remain unaffected, experiencing only routine summertime weather.
TL;DR – September 7 Snapshot
No storms in the Atlantic; no development expected for 7 days.
A wave in the central Atlantic shows no signs of imminent organization.
Environmental factors continue to suppress new tropical formation.
Florida and Gulf remain calm with only routine weather patterns.