Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 16, 2025: Quiet Tropics as Record Heat Builds
Despite calm Atlantic tropics with no systems expected, record-high temperatures surge across the basin—fueling atmospheric changes that could prime conditions for tropical development later this season.
The Atlantic basin remains calm today, with no active tropical cyclones and no areas of concern on the National Hurricane Center’s latest 2 AM EDT outlook. Despite the tranquil skies, beneath the surface trend lines reveal warming seas and evolving atmospherics that could pave the way for an active season.
Atlantic Basin: Clear Skies, No Threats
Tropical formation is not expected for the next 7 days—confirmed in both the graphical and textual 7-day outlooks.
This calm is typical for mid-June, but the stage is setting for future change.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Fueling the Season
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Western Caribbean continue averaging low- to mid-80s °F (27–30 °C), offering ample energy for storm development.
Main Development Region (MDR) is trending warmer than average—an early indicator of readiness for stronger tropical systems.
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Atmospheric Setup: Still Suppressive—For Now
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind shear remains moderate to high across key basins, limiting storm formation.
Mid-level moisture is gradually increasing, especially in Caribbean and Gulf regions—a sign atmospheric support is growing.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) still dominates much of the eastern Atlantic, suppressing convection and serving as a barrier to tropical wave development.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Forecast Conditions: Afternoon Storms Only
Florida & the Southeast U.S. continue seeing afternoon, summer-type thunderstorms—not related to any tropical systems.
Caribbean and Atlantic remain quiet without organized convection.
These storms mark the seasonal norm but are not indicative of tropical threats.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast (Statewide)
Highs: Low to mid‑90s °F (32–34 °C) in Central and South; upper‑80s in North Florida.
Humidity: High—typical early-summer conditions.
Rain: Scattered afternoon and evening showers.
Visibility: Slight haze possible due to lingering dust.
Winds: Light and variable, gusty near storm cells.
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Review and Readiness
This calm window is the best time to:
Verify evacuation routes and local zones.
Ensure NOAA Weather Radio and mobile alerts are active.
Double-check emergency kits, supplies, and documentation.
Stay informed through trusted sites like Cat5Prep.com and hurricanes.gov.
Looking Ahead: Steady Calm, But With Building Potential
Though no storms are expected this week, underlying conditions are subtly shifting:
Sea temperatures remain warm.
Rising moisture levels and decreasing wind shear may favor development.
The Saharan dust layer is weakening, especially in the eastern Atlantic.
Keep monitoring—what’s calm today could transition into tomorrow’s tropical threat.
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 13, 2025: Record-Warm Waters, Calm Tropics
The Atlantic remains calm on June 13, 2025, with no tropical systems expected this week. But record-warm ocean temperatures hint at growing potential for storms later in June.
As of this morning, the Atlantic basin remains quiet with no active tropical cyclones, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is not monitoring any areas for development over the next seven days. This early season calm is typical for June, but it's occurring alongside some of the warmest sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on record for this time of year.
Atlantic Basin: No Immediate Threats
There are no named storms, no tropical disturbances, and no development expected through June 20, according to the NHC’s latest outlook. While quiet conditions aren’t unusual for early June, the current oceanic heat buildup is setting the stage for a potentially more active second half of the month.
Satellite data via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Running Hot
Across much of the Atlantic basin:
Gulf of America (Mexico): SSTs are in the low to mid-80s°F (28–30°C), well above average
Western Caribbean: Also warm, supporting favorable conditions for future development
Main Development Region (MDR): Temperatures continue to trend higher than normal — a red flag as we move closer to peak hurricane season
SST data via Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Mixed Signals
Wind Shear: Remains moderate to high in some areas, limiting storm organization for now, but models show signs of gradual easing
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Dry, dusty air continues to spread across the eastern and central Atlantic, suppressing convection
Moisture Levels: Slowly increasing in the western Caribbean and Gulf, signaling that the environment is gradually becoming more storm-friendly
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Thunderstorm Activity: Diurnal, Not Tropical
Florida and the Southeast U.S.: Expect typical scattered afternoon thunderstorms, driven by heating — not tropical systems
Caribbean and Atlantic: No signs of organized storm activity
Thunderstorm data via Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Midsummer Preview
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33°C)
Humidity: High — muggy conditions will persist
Rain: Afternoon storms likely in areas, but short-lived and localized
Winds: Light and variable
Thunderstorm data via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Know What to Watch For
Now’s a great time to sharpen your hurricane awareness:
Follow daily updates from Cat5Prep and the National Hurricane Center
Brush up on storm formation basics — including the roles of sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and the Saharan Air Layer
Update your hurricane supplies and family communication plan
Looking Ahead: Stay Ready
While the tropics are quiet now, conditions are steadily shifting. Record-breaking ocean heat, reducing wind shear, and a moistening atmosphere all point toward a potentially active late June and July. The calm won’t last forever — use this time to prepare.
Stay safe. Stay informed. Stay ready with Cat5Prep.com.
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 9, 2025: Tropical Tranquility Continues
No storms are expected this week as the Atlantic hurricane season stays quiet. Warm waters and shifting wind patterns suggest activity could increase later in June. Stay prepared with today’s full update.
The ninth day of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season dawns with quiet conditions—no active storms or signs of tropical development are present. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirms that no tropical cyclone formation is expected in the Atlantic Basin over the next seven days. It's a typical early-June lull, but with warming waters and shifting atmospheric dynamics, conditions may change quickly.
Atlantic Basin: Clear Skies, No Areas of Concern
No active tropical cyclones
No disturbances or systems being monitored
7-day outlook shows no development expected
This continued calm aligns with seasonal norms—but forecasters are keeping a cautious eye on the evolving environment.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Warm and Watchful
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Western Caribbean: Sea surface temperatures remain in the low‑to‑mid‑80s °F (27–29 °C), sufficient to fuel tropical systems.
Main Development Region (MDR): SSTs are gradually rising, though not yet at peak summer levels.
These ongoing warm waters provide a key energy source for future storm formation.
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data courtesy of Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Still Mixed, Not Conducive
Wind Shear: Moderate to high shear persists, particularly in western Caribbean and central Atlantic—suppressing thunderstorm organization.
Moisture Levels: While mid-level atmospheric moisture is increasing, it's not yet sufficiently abundant or widespread to support cyclone development.
Together, these factors continue to limit tropical activity.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: A Persistent Block
A strong plume of dry, dusty Saharan air remains entrenched over the central and eastern Atlantic.
This Saharan Air Layer (SAL) injects dryness and wind shear that further inhibit storm formation.
Expect suppression to continue into mid-June when SAL influence typically begins to decline fox35orlando.com.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Routine, Non-Tropical
Florida & Southeast U.S.: Scattered afternoon storms—typical for early June.
Western Caribbean: A few isolated, disorganized cells persist, but show no signs of development.
Eastern Atlantic: Quiet and without organized convection.
These systems are seasonal and not related to hurricane development.
Thunderstorm data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast (All Regions)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: Moderate to high, creating a muggy atmosphere
Rain: Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening storms
Winds: Light and variable
A classic early-summer day with palm trees swaying but no storm threats.
Rainfall forecast courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Review Evacuation Plans
Use this calm window to double-check your evacuation readiness:
Reconfirm your evacuation zone and route.
Update your household emergency plan, including pets and special needs.
Keep contact numbers accessible, especially local officials and emergency services.
Test your NOAA weather radio and ensure alerts are activated on mobile devices.
Looking Ahead: Still Calm, But Eyes Remain Open
No tropical development is forecast this week, but the environment is slowly warming and becoming more favorable:
Warm water concentrations persist
Wind shear may decrease in the coming weeks
Moisture levels are increasing regionally
While it's still quiet, conditions are edging toward potential activity. Continue to check in daily for updates as Cat5Prep.com monitors the evolving season.
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