Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 25, 2025
Tropical Storm Fernand continues east of Bermuda with sustained winds near 50 mph and will weaken as it moves into cooler waters. Erin’s legacy swells still drive dangerous surf and rip currents from the Carolinas to New England. Florida and the Gulf remain calm, with only routine summer thunderstorms.
TLDR Version: Click Here
Tropical Storm Fernand holds strength offshore; environmental factors limit wider Atlantic development
Atlantic Basin Overview
Tropical Storm Fernand
Fernand is located about 360 miles east-northeast of Bermuda, carrying sustained winds near 50 mph while moving north-northeast at ~12 mph. The system may strengthen slightly today but will soon encounter cooler waters and stronger upper-level winds, leading to weakening and a transition to a post-tropical cyclone by midweek. No coastal warnings are in effect, and Fernand poses no threat to land.
Hurricane Erin’s Legacy
Erin’s powerful circulation has long dissipated, but the swell energy lingers. Beaches from the Carolinas to New England remain at risk for dangerous rip currents, elevated surf, and localized erosion, even as skies improve inland.
Other Atlantic Activity
A tropical wave in the Caribbean and another in the central Atlantic show low development chances. The NHC assigns only a 10% probability of tropical formation through 7 days. Dry air and hostile shear continue to suppress organization.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean
The Gulf is quiet under high pressure with only routine afternoon thunderstorms along the coast. Very warm waters (29–31 °C) cover the basin, but no tropical development is expected in the near term.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Florida remains locked in a late-August cycle: hot, humid conditions and scattered afternoon thunderstorms driven by the sea breeze. Some areas also see morning showers drifting in from the Gulf, making for a two-phase rain pattern.
No tropical threats are present, but Atlantic beaches continue to face rip current risks due to Fernand’s swells and Erin’s lingering wave action.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): The Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are running 29–31 °C (84–88 °F), supportive of development. In the western Atlantic, SSTs are warm enough to sustain Fernand briefly, but cooler waters to the north will drive weakening.
Wind Shear: Currently low to moderate around Fernand, allowing some maintenance of strength. However, increasing shear northward will disrupt convection and hasten its post-tropical transition. Shear also remains moderate to strong across much of the MDR, suppressing other disturbances.
Mid-Level Relative Humidity (RH): Dry air pockets persist in the central Atlantic, limiting organization of Invest 99L and other waves. Moisture is more favorable closer to the Caribbean and Gulf.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): SAL dust continues to intrude across parts of the eastern and central Atlantic, reducing convection and capping development potential.
Summary
Fernand is a 50 mph tropical storm, staying well offshore and weakening by midweek.
Erin’s swells continue to fuel dangerous surf and rip currents along the East Coast.
Environmental conditions (SSTs supportive, but SAL, dry mid-level air, and increasing shear) are limiting further Atlantic development.
Gulf and Florida remain quiet, aside from routine thunderstorms and coastal surf hazards.
TL;DR – August 25 Snapshot
Fernand stays offshore, no U.S. land threat, weakening soon.
Rip currents and surf hazards linger along the East Coast.
SAL, shear, and dry mid-level air suppress new storm formation.
Gulf and Florida remain in a routine summer pattern.
As always, check back at CAT5Prep.com for daily hurricane updates, and also visit our Hurricane Prep Blog to find ways you can prepare during hurricanes.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 24, 2025: Tropical Storm Fernand forms southeast of Bermuda
Tropical Storm Fernand has developed in the Atlantic while Erin’s post-tropical remnants continue to generate hazardous surf and rip currents from the Carolinas to New England. Florida and the Gulf of Mexico remain calm, with only daily sea-breeze thunderstorms expected.
TLDR Version: Click Here
Tropical Storm Fernand forms southeast of Bermuda; environmental conditions shaping its strength and lifespan
Atlantic Basin Overview
Tropical Storm Fernand
A new system, Tropical Storm Fernand, has formed approximately 300–400 miles southeast of Bermuda, with sustained winds near 40 mph and moving north-northeastward at about 15 mph. Forecasts support gradual strengthening, possibly into a hurricane by Monday, before weakening as it encounters cooler waters and increasing wind shear. The projected path keeps Fernand well east of Bermuda and away from land. Multiple long-period swells from Fernand, combined with Erin’s lingering effects, sustain hazardous surf and rip current risks along the U.S. East Coast.
Hurricane Erin’s Lingering Hazards
Although Erin has been post-tropical for days, its legacy endures in dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents from the Carolinas through New England. Earlier in the week, dune breaches, NC‑12 flooding, and evacuations in the Outer Banks were documented. The ocean hazards persist even as the system moves further away.
Invest 99L
A tropical wave in the central Atlantic (Invest 99L) continues to show only limited organization. Environmental conditions—particularly dry mid-level air and moderate wind shear—are hindering its development.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): SSTs across the Caribbean and Gulf remain warm (29–31 °C / 84–88 °F), which generally fuels storm development. The Main Development Region (MDR) is also running near or slightly above average SSTs, offering environmental support for intensification.
Wind Shear: As of today, Fernand benefits from light wind shear in the immediate area of formation, although models show increasing wind shear after ~36 hours, which should weaken the system. Moderately high shear in the Caribbean and central Atlantic continues to suppress broader basin-wide development.
Mid-level Humidity & Saharan Air Layer (SAL): While overall moisture in the western tropical Atlantic remains sufficient, pockets of dry mid-level air—partly due to lingering SAL intrusions—are inhibiting storm convection and formation in some areas, including near Invest 99L.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean
The Gulf of America (Mexico) remains quiet, with high pressure dominating. Standard afternoon sea-breeze thunderstorms continue along the coast, but no organized tropical development is expected in the near term. SSTs remain very warm (29–31 °C), making the region climatically conducive to storm formation later in the season.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Across the Florida Peninsula, it's the usual late-August pattern: hot and humid, with daily sea-breeze thunderstorms. Afternoon rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds persist. No tropical threats are present at this time.
Along the Atlantic coast from Florida to New England, rip current risk remains elevated due to swells generated by both Erin and Fernand. Hazards are expected to continue into early next week—beachgoers should remain cautious and heed local advisories.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Summary
Fernand has formed southeast of Bermuda and is expected to strengthen briefly while remaining over open water; weakening is likely within a few days.
Erin’s remnants continue to produce dangerous coastal surf and rip currents, particularly from the Carolinas northward.
Invest 99L shows low development potential due to hostile environmental conditions, including dry air and moderate shear.
Gulf and Florida remain storm-free, with only routine summertime convection.
TL;DR – August 24 Snapshot
Fernand forms and may briefly become a hurricane, but stays out at sea.
Hazardous surf and rip currents continue along the U.S. East Coast from Erin’s legacy.
Development of Invest 99L is stunted by dry air and moderate shear.
Gulf of Mexico and Florida remain calm, with season-typical afternoon storms only.