Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 17, 2025: Erin Got Big
Hurricane Erin briefly reached Category 5 strength but has since weakened to a Category 4 in the Atlantic. While multiple tropical waves remain active, dry air and wind shear are keeping them disorganized. The Gulf of Mexico sees lingering rain, and Florida continues with typical summer storms.
TLDR Version; Click Here
Current Status: Active major hurricane in the Atlantic
Hurricane Erin (Category 3, formerly Cat 5 then 4)
As of this morning, Hurricane Erin is holding as a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 125mph, after briefly reaching Category 5 intensity yesterday with peak winds of 160 mph.
Erin underwent rapid intensification in the open Atlantic but has since begun a gradual weakening trend due to slight increases in wind shear and internal structural changes (eyewall replacement cycle).
The storm remains over open water and poses no immediate land threat, but it continues to serve as a reminder of how quickly systems can ramp up when environmental conditions align.
Central & Eastern Atlantic
Multiple tropical waves continue to traverse the Main Development Region (MDR).
A wave near 35–40°W remains disorganized with only scattered convection.
Another wave just off Africa near 20–25°W is embedded in the monsoon trough, but Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust and dry air should keep development limited in the short term.
Gulf of Mexico
Broad moisture and unsettled weather persists across the central and western Gulf.
No organized tropical system is expected, but localized heavy rain and thunderstorms may impact coastal Texas and Louisiana.
Upper-level conditions are not conducive for development at this time.
Florida & Southeast U.S.
Typical afternoon thunderstorms continue across the Florida peninsula, fueled by Gulf moisture and sea-breeze interactions.
No tropical threats are expected for the state today.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Key Environmental Factors
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): 29–31 °C across the Gulf and Caribbean, with the MDR slightly above average — plenty of available fuel.
Wind Shear: Increasing in the western Atlantic, contributing to Erin’s weakening and suppressing MDR organization.
Moisture: Pockets of dry air and Saharan dust continue to limit development in the eastern Atlantic.
TL;DR
Hurricane Erin: Now a Category 3, after peaking at Cat 5 yesterday; remains over open Atlantic, no land threat.
Atlantic Tropics: Several waves, but limited organization due to dry air and shear.
Gulf of Mexico: Moisture lingers, rain possible, but no tropical development.
Florida: Routine summer storms, no tropical system expected.
CAT5Prep.com is staying on top of the storms. While Hurricane Erin may have passed the point of direct threat for many, there is more movement in the MDR (Main Development Region) of the Atlantic, and we all need to stay on our toes. The MDR is a critical area for tropical cyclone formation, and activity there often sets the tone for the rest of the hurricane season.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 13, 2025: Erin Expected to Become 2025’s First Major Hurricane; U.S. Coast Still Unthreatened
Tropical Storm Erin is gaining strength in the Atlantic and could reach major hurricane status this weekend. Forecasts keep it well offshore, but the Southeast coast will see increasing surf and rip currents. Gulf and Florida remain quiet.
A couple disturbances being monitored along with TS Erin
TLDR Version: Click Here
Tropical Storm Erin is continuing its westward progression across the eastern Atlantic, with strong model agreement that it will likely intensify into a major hurricane this weekend. While its path remains well east of the U.S., coastal regions should prepare for elevated surf and rip current risks in the coming days.
Atlantic Basin Overview
Tropical Storm Erin remains steady with sustained winds of 45 mph, moving west at 20 mph.
Forecasts now indicate Erin may become a Category 3 hurricane by Sunday, as environmental conditions improve.
Some models suggest Erin will pass north of the northern Leeward Islands, with a likely northwest turn before reaching the Bahamas—thereby minimizing direct U.S. impacts.
Meanwhile, Invest 96L and other tropical waves remain under observation, but Erin is the dominant system for now.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Conditions
Gulf of America (Mexico): Calm and quiet. Sea surface temperatures are approximately 2°F above average, creating favorable conditions—but without current disturbances.
Caribbean Sea: Trade winds and typical convection dominate. No organized systems at this time.
GOES - GULF - Sandwich - August 13, 2025
GOES - Caribbean - Sandwich - August 13, 2025
Florida & Southeast Outlook
Forecast: Expect hot, humid conditions with typical afternoon sea-breeze thunderstorms. These are non-tropical and not linked to Erin.
Marine Hazards: Elevated surf and dangerous rip currents are becoming a concern along the Southeast coast due to Erin’s offshore activity.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Looking Ahead & Preparation
Erin is on track to intensify significantly but should remain well offshore through the weekend.
Continue watching Invest 96L and subsequent waves for potential tropical development.
Residents along the Southeast coast should prepare for marine hazards—not wind or rain threats at this stage.
TL;DR – August 13 Snapshot
Erin is strengthening—expected to become 2025’s first major hurricane.
Forecast track keeps it east of the U.S. mainland.
Gulf and Florida remain calm, with routine summer weather.
Watch for increasing surf and rip current hazards along the Eastern Seaboard.
Stay informed with daily updates on Cat5Prep.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 3, 2025: Two Areas Now Under Watch
The Atlantic remains calm with no named storms, but two areas—one off the U.S. coast and another off Africa—are now under watch for potential tropical development. Here's today's scientific hurricane outlook.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
As early August continues, the Atlantic remains without any active tropical cyclones. However, two areas have emerged as brown disturbance watches, as forecasters monitor subtle signs that could impact the Atlantic if conditions shift.
Atlantic Basin Highlights
No active tropical storms in the basin.
Two areas are now under National Hurricane Center scrutiny:
Invest Area AL95: Expected to be a fish storm, it’s a non-tropical low just off the North Carolina coast—producing disorganized thunderstorms. (The orange X on the chart)
➤ Chance of development: Medium (30%) over the next 2–7 days.
➤ Movement: Toward the east-northeast at ~10 mph, expected to stay offshore.Emerging tropical wave off Africa: Near 30°W, forecast to move westward with scattered convection.
➤ Chance of development: Low (30%) within 7 days.
GOES-19 - Sector view: North Atlantic - Sandwich - August 3, 2025
GOES-19 - Sector view: Tropical Atlantic - Sandwich - August 3, 2025
Key Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea remain very warm, with temperatures ranging from 29–31°C (84–88°F). The Main Development Region (MDR) is also running slightly above average. These warm waters provide abundant fuel for tropical development — if other atmospheric factors allow.Wind Shear:
Moderate to high vertical wind shear persists across the central Atlantic, particularly along the latitude band where Disturbance 2 is located. This disrupts the vertical alignment of developing systems and limits the ability of convection to consolidate around a center.Moisture:
Mid-level moisture is gradually increasing across the western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. However, the central Atlantic remains drier overall, especially in areas affected by Saharan dust, limiting deep convection and thunderstorm persistence.Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
A robust SAL is sweeping across the central and eastern Atlantic, characterized by dry, dusty air and suppressed vertical motion. The SAL also contributes to a stable atmosphere, effectively capping thunderstorm development and working against tropical wave organization.
Implication for Disturbance 2:
While ocean temperatures are favorable, the combined influence of high wind shear, limited moisture, and widespread SAL intrusion is expected to stall or inhibit further development of Disturbance 2 as it continues westward across the tropical Atlantic. Until it reaches a more favorable environment, organization remains unlikely.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Region
No disturbances active in the Gulf, and high-pressure conditions support light winds and minimal rain outside normal sea‑breeze showers.
Eastern Caribbean: A wave near 68°W is producing localized storms over Hispaniola and Venezuela but remains disorganized.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf of America - Sandwich - August 3, 2025
GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean - Sandwich - August 3, 2025
Florida Weather Outlook
Highs: Near 90 °F under sticky, humid conditions.
Conditions: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms from sea breeze interactions.
No tropical impacts expected today.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Know Your Warning Signals
Test your alert systems today:
Confirm subscription to NOAA alerts and local county emergency systems.
Test NOAA weather radios and storm tracker apps.
Make sure household members know hurricane communication plans and locations of essential documents.
Outlooking Ahead
Invest Area AL95, while moving away from land, bears watching if it gains tropical characteristics. Meanwhile, the wave off Africa will pass into warmer waters—another early‑August indicator. Meteorological models forecast these systems might strengthen if wind shear declines and dust regresses later this month.
TL;DR – August 3 Hurricane Summary
No storms currently in the Atlantic basin.
AL95 (off North Carolina): 30% chance of development over the next week. (Fish Storm)
African wave near 30°W: 20% chance of development within 7 days.
Factors are currently favoring disorganization.
SSTs are warm and moisture is increasing—conditions may improve in early August.
Immediate risk remains low; now is a good window for storm preparedness.
Stay alert and ready with daily forecasts at Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 31, 2025: Tropics Active But No Storms on the Horizon
Tropical waves continue to move across the Atlantic, but none show signs of organization. Saharan dust and wind shear are keeping storm development in check—for now.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
The Atlantic basin continues to host several tropical waves—but none are expected to organize into tropical cyclones over the next seven days. Despite warm seas and increasing moisture, wind shear and Saharan dry air maintain a suppressive environment.
Atlantic Basin Summary
As of the 8:00 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) from the National Hurricane Center, there are:
No active tropical cyclones.
No areas under investigation for development in the next 48 hours or seven days.
The Tropical Weather Discussion (issued at ~12:15 UTC) reveals:
A tropical wave near 43°W (south of 22°N) moving westward at 10–15 kt, with scattered moderate convection between 4–10°N.
Another wave near 55°W (south of 18°N) moving west at about 10 kt, with minimal convection.
These waves are being monitored but show no organized structure or circulation at present.
Key Weather Factors
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
Across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and MDR, SSTs range from 29–31 °C (84–88 °F)—values supportive of tropical development if atmospheric conditions improve.
Wind Shear:
Remains moderate to high across most of the Atlantic basin, limiting vertical development of disturbances.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
Dry and dusty air persists across the central and eastern Atlantic, suppressing convection in the MDR.
Atmospheric Moisture:
While moisture is gradually increasing near the Caribbean and western tropical Atlantic, the dry air and shear continue to hinder system organization.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Region
No low-pressure areas or disturbances are being tracked.
A dominating high-pressure ridge supports generally light winds and calm seas across the Gulf and Caribbean.
Offshore rainfall remains typical for this time of year—no tropical impacts on the Florida peninsula.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf of America - Sandwich
GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean - Sandwich
Florida Forecast
High temperatures: Near 90 °F under humid conditions.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms: 40–50% likelihood due to sea breeze convergence.
Winds: Light and variable inland; east-southeasterly along the coast.
Precipitation: Not driven by tropical systems.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Preparation Tip: Review Your Evacuation Plan
Take advantage of the lull to finalize your hurricane readiness:
Verify evacuation zones and travel routes.
Confirm alert registration with local and state emergency systems.
Update contact information and checklist locations with household members.
Outlook & Future Signal
Although today’s conditions remain tranquil, the ongoing wave train emerging from Africa and gradually improving moisture and SST profiles suggest that rainfall and organization potential may increase in early August.
TL;DR – July 31, 2025 Snapshot
No tropical systems present.
Two tropical waves travel west, but show none of the structure needed for development.
Strong wind shear and Saharan dust continue to suppress storm formation.
Warm waters and increased moisture hint at higher activity potential in August.
Stay informed and prepare while the pace allows. Daily updates continue at Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 29, 2025: Active Waves, Quiet Forecast
Several tropical waves are moving across the Atlantic, but none show signs of imminent development. Warm waters persist, and August may bring change.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
Though the Atlantic basin remains free of tropical cyclones, several tropical waves are shifting across the ocean—each monitored for organization. Conditions remain broadly unfavorable for development, but the warm ocean and evolving atmospheric patterns suggest potential change in the weeks ahead.
Atlantic Basin: No Cyclones, But Several Waves in Motion
According to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center does not expect any tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days. However, recent Tropical Weather Discussion reveals:
A tropical wave near 19°W (south of 19°N), moving westward at about 10 kt, with scattered convection between 10°N–13°N and east of 23°W.
Another wave near 38°W, south of 18°N, moving slowly (~5 kt), associated with a 1012 mb low. A scatterometer pass noted fresh to strong winds within 120 nm and scattered convection between 5°N–12°N.
None of these features currently exhibit a closed circulation or organization, but their movement into warmer waters bears monitoring.
Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean: Calm Signals, Minimal Development Risk
No disturbances are being tracked in the Gulf at this time.
Surface analyses and satellite imagery show mostly typical trade-wind patterns and minor convection near Central America and the Windward Passage.
A dominant high-pressure ridge maintains light to moderate winds and minimal seas across most of the region.
Environmental Snapshot: Barriers Remain, Fuel Accumulating
Sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean are well above average, delivering ample heat energy for potential development in early August.
The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) continues to suppress convection in the eastern Atlantic. Convection in tropical waves remains shallow and short-lived.
Upper-level wind shear remains moderate to high, especially over the central MDR, limiting vertical storm organization.
SST data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Late-July Heat & Afternoon Storms
Highs across central and south Florida: Near 90–92 °F under humid conditions.
Rain chance: 40–50% with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms fueled by sea-breezes and daytime heating.
Wind conditions: Light and variable inland, becoming east-southeasterly near the coast.
No tropical impacts are anticipated over the next 24 hours.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Keep Monitoring Those Waves
Even when storms don’t form, their precursors still matter:
Review evacuation zones and routes now—not during an emergency.
Check the status of local email lists or alert systems for tropical watches.
Confirm your household has working weather radios and updated contact lists.
Looking Ahead: August May Bring Increased Activity
While development is unlikely in the next 5–7 days, the combination of:
Warm ocean temperatures,
Decreasing wind shear projections, and
Multiple tropical waves entering the MDR
suggests the system is slowly shifting toward a more favorable environment as August begins.
TL;DR
Flood‑ready outlook for July 29, 2025
No tropical cyclones in the basin; no development expected this week.
Two tropical waves showing scattered convection—watching for mid‑Atlantic changes.
Warm Gulf and Caribbean waters offer fuel if shear and dry air ease up.
Florida sees typical summer weather—heat and scattered afternoon storms.
Prep recommendation: finalize hurricane plans, stay informed, remain ready.
For full updates, continue visiting Cat5Prep.com daily.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 19, 2025: Disturbance in the Deep Tropics Eyes Development
A tropical wave southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands shows a low chance of development as it moves westward. Conditions remain mixed across the Atlantic, but signs of activity are increasing.
The Atlantic Basin remains relatively quiet today, but there’s a new player on the map. A tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic—labeled Disturbance 1—has a low but notable chance of development over the next week. This marks the first sign of deeper tropical activity emerging from the Main Development Region (MDR) as we move closer to peak hurricane season.
Atlantic Basin Overview: One Area to Watch
As of 8:00 AM EDT Saturday, July 19, 2025, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring:
No named tropical cyclones
One disturbance in the central Atlantic
Tropical development chances:
10% over 48 hours
20% over 7 days
Disturbance 1 is a tropical wave located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, interacting with a broad area of low pressure. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized, but marginally favorable conditions could support slow development as the system moves west to west-northwest around 10 mph.
However, by mid-week, environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable, limiting its window for intensification.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Fuel in Place
Waters remain very warm across much of the Atlantic:
Gulf of Mexico: Holding above 86°F (30°C) in many areas
Western Caribbean: High SSTs remain steady
Main Development Region (MDR): Warm enough to support tropical wave development—an important factor as more systems emerge off Africa
These warm waters are key to supporting systems like Disturbance 1.
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear & Moisture: Still Mixed
Wind Shear: Moderate in the eastern Atlantic near Disturbance 1 but lower closer to the Caribbean
Moisture: Rising across the western Atlantic, but dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is still suppressing deeper convection across much of the MDR
While the disturbance has some support for development, these mixed upper-atmospheric conditions could limit growth.
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer: Still an Inhibitor
Dry, dusty air continues to stretch across much of the central and eastern Atlantic. It:
Reduces storm cloud organization
Increases atmospheric stability
Weakens convection associated with tropical waves
SAL is expected to persist into early August but may begin to recede gradually.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Isolated and Mostly Local
Florida: Scattered PM thunderstorms expected—typical for this time of year
Gulf & Western Caribbean: Moisture lingers but no signs of tropical organization
Off Africa/Central Atlantic: Activity is tied to Disturbance 1, but convection remains weak
Thunderstorm forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s
Humidity: High
Rain: Isolated to scattered afternoon storms
Winds: Light to moderate easterlies
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Know the Early Signs
With deeper Atlantic activity beginning, now is a good time to refresh your awareness:
Follow NHC's five-day outlooks
Understand what “low chance” really means—it can change fast with heat and time
Review your emergency communication plan and make sure alerts are enabled
Looking Ahead: Watch the MDR
While Disturbance 1 may or may not develop, its emergence from the Cabo Verde region is a signal that the deep tropics are beginning to stir. Expect more waves in the coming weeks as we approach the climatological ramp-up of hurricane season.
Stay informed. Stay ready. Your next real-time update comes tomorrow from Cat5Prep.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 16, 2025: Gulf Disturbance Lingers, Tropics Stay Quiet
A weak low in the Gulf of Mexico brings rain and storms to Florida, but no tropical development is expected. Cat5Prep’s daily update covers real-time conditions, SSTs, and what to watch next.
The Atlantic hurricane basin remains quiet in terms of named storms, but attention continues to center on a weak low-pressure system lingering over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although this system remains disorganized and development chances are low, it’s bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms across parts of Florida, the northeastern Gulf, and coastal Georgia.
While no tropical development is expected over the next 7 days, the broader environment is slowly shifting toward favorability, with rising sea surface temperatures, weakening wind shear, and the gradual retreat of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL).
Atlantic Basin Overview
As of the latest NHC update (2:00 PM EDT):
No active tropical cyclones
One disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico (Low development chance)
No tropical formation expected in the next 7 days
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico
A broad area of low pressure continues to meander just west of Florida over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico:
Development chances remain low (0% over 48 hours, 10% over 7 days)
System remains non-tropical and disorganized
Producing periods of heavy rainfall, especially across the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina
Some gusty winds and isolated flooding may occur, especially in areas with poor drainage
This system is expected to drift inland by late Thursday, reducing any tropical potential.
Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
Ocean temperatures remain exceptionally warm, providing high potential energy for storm development once other conditions align:
Gulf of Mexico: 86–89°F (2–4°F above normal)
Western Caribbean: 85–88°F
Main Development Region (MDR): Now reaching 82–84°F across much of the eastern Atlantic
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind Shear: Still elevated in the western Atlantic and Gulf, but beginning to weaken, particularly near Central America and the western Caribbean.
Moisture: Mid-level moisture continues to increase, especially in the Caribbean and southern Gulf.
Saharan Air Layer: A large, dry SAL continues to stretch across the central Atlantic, suppressing storm formation east of the Lesser Antilles, but it's expected to weaken by early August.
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm & Rainfall Activity
Florida & Gulf Coast: Expect locally heavy rain and thunderstorm clusters tied to the Gulf disturbance.
Western Caribbean: Some disorganized convection continues, but nothing tropical at this time.
West Africa: A new tropical wave has emerged, but faces significant dry air and shear over the central Atlantic.
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F
Humidity: High, with a heat index reaching the upper 90s
Rain: 60–70% chance of scattered storms in parts of Florida, especially in the afternoon and evening
Winds: Light southeast winds, with occasional gusts during storms
Prep Tip of the Day: Review Flood Insurance Coverage
Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage. Use this calm window to:
Check your flood zone designation
Review your current policy limits
Confirm your coverage start date (flood insurance usually has a 30-day waiting period)
With warm SSTs and an increasingly favorable atmosphere, inland and coastal flood risk rises as we move deeper into hurricane season.
Looking Ahead: Watchful, Not Worrying
Although July 16 brings no immediate storm threats, all eyes remain on the broader Atlantic:
The ingredients for development are aligning: warm water, weakening shear, and increased moisture.
The next two weeks may see the first organized systems forming in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.
Now is the time to stay informed and finalize preparations—not when a storm is already on the map.