Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 27, 2025: Calm Conditions Continue Despite Active Waves
The tropics stay quiet on July 27, 2025, but tropical waves in the deep Atlantic are being closely monitored. No development is expected in the next 7 days, but changes could come as we approach August.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
The Atlantic basin remains free of named storms this morning, with no tropical cyclone formation expected over the next seven days. However, meteorologists are closely monitoring several tropical waves in the deep eastern Atlantic that could signal a developing pattern as we head into August.
Atlantic Basin: Quiet—but Watchful
No active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that no tropical development is expected over the next 7 days.
Tropical waves in the eastern and central Atlantic continue to be monitored for organization.
Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean: No Significant Activity
No low-pressure disturbances currently under watch.
Conditions in the Gulf remain stable, with typical afternoon thunderstorms but no signs of tropical development.
Lower Caribbean waters remain under fresh easterly trade winds, with rather isolated convection near Central America.
Tropical Waves: Deep Atlantic Features to Monitor
According to the NHC’s Tropical Weather Discussion:
A tropical wave near 27°W (south of 17°N) is moving west at ~10 kt, with scattered moderate convection noted between 5°N and 9°N.
A stronger wave near 54°W (south of 22°N) is moving west at 15–20 kt, with scattered convection between 5°N–23°N.
An area of low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough near 8°N44°W is also aiding scattered convection but remains disorganized.
None of these systems currently have the structure required for classification, but they inhabit regions where sea surface temperatures and wind shear may soon become more conducive to development.
Environmental Conditions Snapshot
The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) remains strong across the eastern Atlantic, suppressing mid-level moisture and convection.
Wind shear in the central Atlantic remains moderate to high, limiting tropical organization—though forecasts suggest a gradual reduction heading into early August.
Sea surface temperatures across the Main Development Region (MDR) remain above average, providing energy should conditions improve later this month.
Dust & SAL data from Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs around 90 °F with coastal humidity making it feel hotter.
Rain Chance: 40–50% for scattered afternoon thunderstorms driven by sea breeze convergence.
Winds: Light and variable, shifting to southeasterly in the afternoon.
No tropical impacts expected today.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Check Your Weather Apps and Alerts
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While the tropics are quiet, confirming your local alert settings and weather tool readiness can make all the difference:
Enable push notifications for National Hurricane Center advisories.
Confirm alert registration with your county emergency system.
Test weather apps and bookmarks on all household phones and devices.
Looking Ahead: August May Bring Change
Though today’s conditions remain tranquil, the presence of several tropical waves moving into warmer Atlantic waters—combined with weakening Saharan dust and decreasing wind shear—suggest a gradual shift toward a more active setup. Historically, the first week of August often kicks off heightened tropical activity.
Stay alert. Stay ready. Daily Atlantic updates from Cat5Prep.com.
TL;DR
Atlantic Hurricane Forecast for July 27, 2025
No tropical storms are expected this week — the Atlantic remains quiet.
Three tropical waves are being monitored across the basin. None are showing strong signs of development yet.
Sea surface temperatures are hot and rising — especially in the Gulf and Caribbean — setting the stage for activity in August.
Wind shear and dry air (Saharan dust) continue to limit development for now.
Florida and the Gulf Coast: Typical summer weather—hot, humid, and scattered afternoon storms.
Prep Tip: Now is the time to stock up on essentials and finalize your hurricane communication plan.
No immediate threats, but stay alert. The quiet won’t last forever.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 18, 2025: Tropics Stay Quiet as Pacific Storms Steer Focus
The Atlantic remains storm-free on June 18, with no tropical systems expected over the next 7 days. But warming ocean temps and an active Pacific raise long-range concerns.
The Atlantic basin remains calm today, with no active tropical cyclones and no systems being monitored for development in the National Hurricane Center’s latest 2 AM EDT outlook. This early-season quiet continues, but shifting global patterns—warm oceans, dust, and Pacific activity—are fueling a cautious watchfulness.
Atlantic Basin: Clear, But Keep Watching
No Atlantic systems are active, and the seven-day forecast shows no tropical development expected this week . While mid-June calm is common, meteorologists note stronger global volatility due to cross-basin interactions and shifting climate signals.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Pacific Spotlight: Tropical Storm Erick on the Rise
Wind Speed Probability Tropical Storm Erick
All eyes are on the Eastern Pacific, where Tropical Storm Erick is rapidly strengthening—forecast to become the season’s first Pacific hurricane. Though Erick poses no threat to U.S. shores, it demonstrates the early-season dynamism that Atlantic may encounter soon.
Wind Gust Accumulation Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Heat Builds Beneath the Calm
Gulf & Western Caribbean: SSTs remain well above average (84–88 °F), providing potential fuel.
Main Development Region (MDR): Water temperatures are warming and trending warmer than early June norms, laying a foundation for development later in the season.
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Saharan Dust & Atmospheric Inhibitors
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
A large plume of Saharan dust continues to stretch across the Atlantic and into the Caribbean and Southeast U.S., suppressing tropical formation and degrading air quality.
This dust layer, combined with moderate wind shear, continues to inhibit tropical systems.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Summer Rhythm
Florida & Southeast U.S.: Expect standard afternoon thunderstorms, born from daytime heating—not tropical phenomena.
Caribbean & Atlantic: Skies remain clear, with no clusters or organic storms forming.
Air Quality Alert: Sensitive groups should note haze and dust over the Southeast.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast (June 18)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: High, with muggy conditions
Rain: Isolated to scattered afternoon storms
Visibility: Reduced by dust haze in some regions
Winds: Light, stronger near storms
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Monitor Dust and Air Quality
Minimize outdoor exposure if you’re sensitive to dust
Clean or replace filters in HVAC systems
Keep monitoring dust levels through local air-quality alerts
Continue hurricane planning while skies are calm
Looking Ahead: Still Quiet, But Global Trends Are Stirring
No Atlantic storms are expected this week. However:
SSTs remain elevated
Wind shear may ease gradually
Saharan dust may shift or thin
Eastern Pacific activity—like Erick—offers insight into potential future Atlantic behavior
Use this calm period to prepare. Tomorrow could bring the first tropical ripple, so stay connected to Cat5Prep for ongoing updates.
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