Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – September 15, 2025
Quiet Atlantic continues; a tropical wave off western Africa showing high 7-day development potential
Atlantic Basin Overview
No Active Tropical Cyclones
The Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean remain storm-free. The National Hurricane Center confirms there are no tropical storms or hurricanes currently active.Tropical Wave in the Central Tropical Atlantic
A tropical wave located in the central tropical Atlantic is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. It is moving west-northwest at 10-15 mph, and environmental conditions are expected to permit gradual development through the week. Formation chances are about 30% over the next 48 hours, increasing to 80% over the next 7 days.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): SSTs in the tropical Atlantic remain warm enough to support storm formation.
Wind Shear: Moderate shear is present; while it may hinder rapid intensification early on, shear is expected to diminish somewhat near the wave’s path.
Dry Air & Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Dry air and some SAL/ dust intrusions are observed over parts of the eastern Atlantic. These will likely slow initial development but are not expected to completely prevent it as moisture pickup increases.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean
The Gulf remains quiet under high pressure. Only routine afternoon and marginal overnight thunderstorms are forecast along coastal zones. No systems are showing organization or threat. Seas are generally modest.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Florida is continuing its typical mid-September pattern: hot, humid, with scattered afternoon storms driven by sea breezes. With no tropical systems nearby, there are no tropical threats expected this week. Marine conditions are moderate and normal for this time of year.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Summary
The Atlantic remains calm with no active storms.
A tropical wave in the central Atlantic shows high potential (80% over 7 days) to develop, possibly forming a depression by week’s end.
Environmental factors (warm SSTs, reducing shear, some dry air) are mixed—some favorable, some limiting.
Gulf, Caribbean, Florida remain quiet with routine weather patterns.
TL;DR – September 15 Snapshot
Atlantic is quiet; no active systems.
The central tropical Atlantic wave has ~80% 7-day development odds.
Conditions are marginal but becoming more favorable near the wave.
Florida/Gulf remains calm with only the usual summer storms.
