Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – May 30, 2025: The Calm Before the Surge
As we approach the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, the Atlantic basin remains tranquil. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports no active tropical systems or significant disturbances across the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico.
However, this period of calm may be short-lived. Environmental conditions—such as record-warm sea surface temperatures and a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase—are aligning to potentially fuel an active hurricane season.
Eastern Pacific Activity: Tropical Storm Alvin Forms
While the Atlantic remains quiet, the Eastern Pacific has seen its first named storm of the 2025 season: Tropical Storm Alvin.
Location: Approximately 565 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula
Movement: Northwest at 12 mph
Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 mph
Forecast: Alvin is expected to strengthen through early Friday but is anticipated to weaken by late Friday as it encounters cooler waters
(Associated Press source)
Although Alvin poses no direct threat to land, its formation indicates that tropical activity is beginning in the Pacific.
Sea Surface Temperatures: Fuel for Future Storms
The Atlantic's sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are notably warm, providing ample energy for potential storm development:
Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea: SSTs are running 2–4°F above average, with some areas exceeding 86°F (30°C)
North Atlantic: Experiencing its third-warmest May on record
These elevated temperatures are conducive to tropical cyclone formation and intensification.
Saharan Dust: A Temporary Inhibitor
The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) continues to transport dry, dusty air across the Atlantic, suppressing tropical development by:
Drying out the mid-level atmosphere
Increasing vertical wind shear
Inhibiting cloud formation
This dust presence is expected to diminish in the coming weeks, potentially allowing for increased tropical activity as the season progresses.
Preparation Tips: Stay Ready
With the Atlantic hurricane season imminent, it's crucial to visit our Prep Blog and:
Review Emergency Plans: Ensure evacuation routes and communication plans are up to date
Check Emergency Kits: Stock up on essentials like water, non-perishable food, medications, and batteries
Stay Informed: Monitor updates from the NHC and local weather services
Looking Ahead
While the Atlantic remains calm for now, the formation of Tropical Storm Alvin in the Pacific underscores the importance of vigilance. As environmental conditions become more favorable, the likelihood of tropical development in the Atlantic increases.
Stay prepared and stay informed.
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