Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 16, 2025: Gulf Disturbance Lingers, Tropics Stay Quiet
A weak low in the Gulf of Mexico brings rain and storms to Florida, but no tropical development is expected. Cat5Prep’s daily update covers real-time conditions, SSTs, and what to watch next.
The Atlantic hurricane basin remains quiet in terms of named storms, but attention continues to center on a weak low-pressure system lingering over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although this system remains disorganized and development chances are low, it’s bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms across parts of Florida, the northeastern Gulf, and coastal Georgia.
While no tropical development is expected over the next 7 days, the broader environment is slowly shifting toward favorability, with rising sea surface temperatures, weakening wind shear, and the gradual retreat of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL).
Atlantic Basin Overview
As of the latest NHC update (2:00 PM EDT):
No active tropical cyclones
One disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico (Low development chance)
No tropical formation expected in the next 7 days
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico
A broad area of low pressure continues to meander just west of Florida over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico:
Development chances remain low (0% over 48 hours, 10% over 7 days)
System remains non-tropical and disorganized
Producing periods of heavy rainfall, especially across the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina
Some gusty winds and isolated flooding may occur, especially in areas with poor drainage
This system is expected to drift inland by late Thursday, reducing any tropical potential.
Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
Ocean temperatures remain exceptionally warm, providing high potential energy for storm development once other conditions align:
Gulf of Mexico: 86–89°F (2–4°F above normal)
Western Caribbean: 85–88°F
Main Development Region (MDR): Now reaching 82–84°F across much of the eastern Atlantic
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind Shear: Still elevated in the western Atlantic and Gulf, but beginning to weaken, particularly near Central America and the western Caribbean.
Moisture: Mid-level moisture continues to increase, especially in the Caribbean and southern Gulf.
Saharan Air Layer: A large, dry SAL continues to stretch across the central Atlantic, suppressing storm formation east of the Lesser Antilles, but it's expected to weaken by early August.
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm & Rainfall Activity
Florida & Gulf Coast: Expect locally heavy rain and thunderstorm clusters tied to the Gulf disturbance.
Western Caribbean: Some disorganized convection continues, but nothing tropical at this time.
West Africa: A new tropical wave has emerged, but faces significant dry air and shear over the central Atlantic.
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F
Humidity: High, with a heat index reaching the upper 90s
Rain: 60–70% chance of scattered storms in parts of Florida, especially in the afternoon and evening
Winds: Light southeast winds, with occasional gusts during storms
Prep Tip of the Day: Review Flood Insurance Coverage
Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage. Use this calm window to:
Check your flood zone designation
Review your current policy limits
Confirm your coverage start date (flood insurance usually has a 30-day waiting period)
With warm SSTs and an increasingly favorable atmosphere, inland and coastal flood risk rises as we move deeper into hurricane season.
Looking Ahead: Watchful, Not Worrying
Although July 16 brings no immediate storm threats, all eyes remain on the broader Atlantic:
The ingredients for development are aligning: warm water, weakening shear, and increased moisture.
The next two weeks may see the first organized systems forming in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.
Now is the time to stay informed and finalize preparations—not when a storm is already on the map.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 19, 2025: Still Down South – Pacific Watches Erick
The Atlantic remains storm-free, but Hurricane Erick—a powerful Category 4 storm—gains strength in the Eastern Pacific. Learn what this means for the Atlantic basin and why now is the time to prepare.
The Atlantic basin remains quiet today, with no active tropical cyclones and no development expected over the next 7 days, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest 2 AM and 8 AM EDT outlooks nhc.noaa.gov. While the Atlantic sleeps, attention is turning to a powerful system in the Pacific.
Atlantic Basin: Calm Waters, No Alerts
There are still no named storms or areas under tropical monitoring. The graphical and textual 7-day outlooks show zero development chance, meaning the basin continues its quiet stretch early in the season . Early June silence isn’t unusual—but with warm seas in place, conditions could shift quickly.
Satellite view via Windy.com
Pacific Perspective: Erick Now a Category 4
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Erick has rapidly intensified into an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 storm with 145 mph sustained winds, now only about 70 miles west-southwest of Puerto Ángel, Mexico, heading for landfall.
This storm is expected to bring destructive winds, brutal rainfall (8–16 inches), mudslides, and severe coastal flooding across southern Mexico.
Sea Surface Temperatures: Atlantic Warming Continues
Gulf & Western Caribbean: SSTs remain warm at 84–88 °F, maintaining energy supply for potential tropical systems.
Main Development Region (MDR): Ocean temperatures are also above normal, setting the stage for Atlantic activity later in the season.
Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Suppressive Air Masses
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind shear: Still moderate to high across key development areas, limiting near-term storm formation.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): A persistent dust plume continues to suppress early-season activity in the eastern Atlantic.
Moisture: Slowly increasing in the Gulf and western Caribbean, helping build storm potential.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com
Daily Weather: Standard June Patterns
Florida & Southeast U.S.: Afternoon and evening thunderstorms remain widespread but non-tropical.
Caribbean & Atlantic: Quiet and storm-free, with no signs of developing systems.
Air Quality: Possible haze in Florida due to advancing Saharan dust.
Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Florida Forecast (June 19)
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: High—typical muggy summer
Rain: Scattered PM showers and thunderstorms
Visibility: Hazy in some areas
Winds: Light, occasional gusts near storm cells
Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Cross-Basin Awareness
Even without Atlantic storms, Pacific activity underscores a critical point:
Monitor systems across basins, not just the Atlantic
Understand conditions building globally—warm seas, dust, wind shear shifts
Use this calm time to update emergency contacts, test NOAA radios, and finalize supply kits
Looking Ahead: Calm Now, But It Won’t Last
No Atlantic activity is expected this week, but elevated ocean temperatures, decreasing wind shear, and diminishing dust suggest a shift is coming. Hurricane Erick in the Pacific could hint at similar atmospheric boosts affecting the Atlantic soon.
Stay tuned for daily updates from Cat5Prep.com—the next tropical trigger could arrive sooner than you think.
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