Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – September 4, 2025
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Atlantic quiet overall; tropical wave WSW of Cabo Verde likely to become a depression this weekend
Atlantic Basin Overview
Eastern Atlantic disturbance (near 34°W)
Showers and storms tied to a tropical wave several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are getting a bit better organized. The NHC says environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely late this week or this weekend as the wave moves W–WNW ~5–10 mph. It should accelerate westward afterward and reach waters east of the Lesser Antilles by mid-next week. Formation odds: 50% (48 hr) and 80% (7 days).
No other active systems
Aside from this wave, no tropical cyclones are active in the Atlantic this morning per NHC outlooks.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Warm waters persist across the deep tropics, with widespread warmth expected to favor development as the wave travels west. (NHC notes “conducive” conditions for this system.)
Wind Shear: Broad Atlantic shear has been on the higher side recently, but guidance and outlooks indicate a more favorable pocket near the wave, aligning with the NHC’s expectation of gradual organization.
Mid-level Humidity & SAL: Dry air/Saharan dust remain scattered across the central Atlantic and have been suppressing convection in other waves; conditions are less hostile near the developing disturbance than earlier this week.
Large-scale pattern: Forecasters expect upticks in Atlantic activity in early September given unusually warm waters and supportive intraseasonal signals; still, track confidence for any single wave is low at this lead time.
Gulf of American (Mexico) & Caribbean
The Gulf remains quiet under relatively benign marine conditions; no tropical development is indicated in current NHC products. Offshore forecasts keep light winds and low seas (generally ≤3 ft) through the period.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
General pattern: Hot, humid late-summer weather with the daily sea-breeze cycle of scattered afternoon thunderstorms continues. No tropical threats for the state are signalled by NHC at this time. (Central Florida forecast discussions also note a lingering boundary with showers/storms, trending a bit drier into the weekend.)
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Summary
A tropical wave WSW of Cabo Verde has 50% (48 hr) / 80% (7-day) odds to form; a depression is likely late week/weekend as it tracks W–WNW.
No other active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic this morning.
Environment: warm SSTs and a somewhat improved shear/moisture backdrop near the wave support gradual development, but SAL/dry air remain pockets of resistance elsewhere.
Gulf and Florida: quiet from a tropical standpoint; typical afternoon storms, light marine winds, and low seas prevail.
TL;DR – September 4 Snapshot
High-confidence watch: Wave WSW of Cabo Verde likely to become a depression late week/weekend; 80% 7-day odds.
Track window: Guidance favors a west to west-northwest motion toward the east of the Lesser Antilles by mid-next week (too early for specifics).
No other systems active; Gulf & Florida remain in a routine summer pattern with scattered storms and no tropical threats.
