Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 29, 2025
TLDR Version: Click Here
Fernand has dissipated; no active tropical storms, but a new wave off Africa warrants monitoring
Atlantic Basin Overview
Fernand Has Dissipated
Post-tropical Fernand has fully dissipated over the far North Atlantic. As of the last advisory on August 28, 0900 UTC, it was centered near 41.2°N, 42.9°W, moving east-northeast at ~23 mph with maximum winds of 35 knots (40 mph) and a minimum pressure of 1009 mb. No further advisories will be issued, and the system is no longer a threat to land.
No Active Tropical Systems
Currently, there are no active tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. Model tracking tools confirm the basin is completely clear of active systems.
New Disturbance Emerging Near Africa
The NHC is observing a tropical wave east of the Cabo Verde Islands. This wave features no significant convection and is currently under the influence of Saharan dust. While its development odds are low in the short term, there’s a 20% chance of development over the next 7 days.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Warm waters (~29–31 °C) persist in the Gulf and Caribbean, but cooling temperatures across the open Atlantic now that Fernand is gone.
Wind Shear: Elevated wind shear continues to suppress development across most of the Atlantic.
Mid-Level Relative Humidity & Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Dry air and SAL dust are prevalent—particularly near the new wave off Africa—further hampering development.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean
The Gulf remains quiet and stable, with high pressure dominating. Only typical afternoon thunderstorms are expected; no organized or tropical development is forecast.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Florida continues to experience standard late-summer weather—hot, humid, with scattered afternoon thunderstorms. The absence of major tropical features means no new coastal threats.
Atlantic beaches are finally beginning to calm after prolonged rough surf from previous systems, though caution remains advised where noticeable wave action persists.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Summary
Fernand has dissipated; no tropical cyclones remain in the Atlantic.
Atlantic remains quiet, with only a small wave emerging near Africa carrying limited development potential.
Environmental factors—cooler SSTs, wind shear, dry air, and SAL—continue to suppress tropical activity.
Gulf and Florida show no signs of tropical development, carrying on with typical summer weather patterns.
TL;DR – August 29 Snapshot
Fernand is no longer active and poses no threat.
Atlantic basin is quiet—only a minor wave off Africa is being watched.
Environmental conditions remain unfavorable for storm formation.
Florida and Gulf continue with routine stormy weather; beaches are calming.
