Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 22, 2025:Erin weakens; dangerous surf continues along the East Coast
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Atlantic Basin Overview
Hurricane Erin (Category 1)
Erin has weakened to Category 1 with maximum sustained winds near 90 mph and a central pressure of 956 mb. The storm is moving northeast at 22 mph, well away from the U.S. coastline. Erin is a very large cyclone, with tropical-storm-force winds extending over 350 miles from the center.
Although it is transitioning into a post-tropical system, Erin continues to generate life-threatening surf and rip currents along the East Coast. Coastal flooding and dune overwash were reported on North Carolina’s Outer Banks, including sections of NC-12, but major structural damage has been avoided.Coastal and Marine Impacts
“Life-threatening” rip currents and 10–17 ft seas continue from the Carolinas through New England. Numerous beach rescues have been reported this week, with no-swim advisories in place at several popular beaches such as Wrightsville Beach, NC. Conditions will remain hazardous for swimmers and boaters through the weekend as swells spread north into the Canadian Maritimes.Declining Land Warnings
All U.S. coastal tropical storm warnings have been lifted, and advisories for Bermuda were dropped Thursday. Erin will continue weakening as it accelerates northeast, becoming post-tropical by tonight.Additional Atlantic Disturbances
Disturbance east of the Leeward Islands (90L): Highly likely to develop as it tracks northwest and then north between the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda. Formation chances: 70% (48 hr) / 80% (7 day).
Central Atlantic Wave (Invest 99L): Located ~1000 mi WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands. May briefly become a depression before moving into a less favorable environment. Formation chances: 50% (48 hr) / 60% (7 day).
Subtropical Atlantic Low: A small low southwest of the Azores is in a hostile environment and unlikely to develop. Formation chance: 10% (48 hr / 7 day).
90L Invest
99L Invest
Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean
Quiet across the Gulf
The Gulf remains calm, with high pressure suppressing development. Typical afternoon thunderstorms continue along the northern and western Gulf coasts, but no tropical systems are expected over the next 5 days.
Sea-surface temperatures remain very warm (29–31°C), keeping the region primed for potential activity later in the season.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Florida Peninsula
Hot and humid conditions persist. Highs near 90–92°F with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms driven by sea breezes. No tropical threats are present.Atlantic Beaches (Carolinas to New England)
Even as Erin pulls away, long-period swells will continue to generate high rip-current risks and elevated surf into the weekend. Local advisories remain in effect, and caution is strongly advised for swimmers and small craft.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Summary
Erin has weakened to Category 1 and is transitioning to post-tropical as it moves away from the U.S. East Coast.
Primary hazards remain marine: dangerous surf, rip currents, and dune erosion—not landfall.
Outer Banks experienced flooding and road closures, but no widespread structural damage.
Gulf of Mexico is quiet, with no development expected.
Florida remains hot and stormy with only routine summer convection.
Two Atlantic disturbances (AL90 and AL99) have moderate-to-high chances of development in the coming days.
TL;DR – August 22 Snapshot
Erin is now a Category 1, pulling away but still producing hazardous surf and rip currents.
East Coast beaches remain under no-swim advisories due to rip currents and high surf.
The Gulf of Mexico and Florida stay quiet with only routine thunderstorms.
AL90 near the Leewards (70–80%) and AL99 in the central Atlantic (50–60%) are both being monitored for tropical development.
