Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 21, 2025: Current Tropical Systems

Aug 21

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Current Tropical Systems

Hurricane Erin:
Erin remains a Category 2 hurricane well offshore of North Carolina near 34.2°N, 72.1°W, moving NNE ~17 mph with max winds 105 mph and pressure 945 mb. Erin’s large wind field (TS‑force ~320 mi, hurricane‑force ~105 mi) is generating life‑threatening surf and rip currents along much of the U.S. East Coast. Storm Surge Warning is in effect Cape Lookout–Duck (NC); TS Warning Beaufort Inlet, NC to Chincoteague, VA; TS Watch Bermuda. Gradual weakening is expected; post‑tropical by Saturday while accelerating ENE.
Disturbance near the Leeward Islands:
A tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the Leewards is likely to develop while moving near or just north of the islands this weekend. Formation chance: 30% (48 hr) / 70% (7 day).
Far Eastern Atlantic Wave (Invest 99L):
A wave WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands shows some organization; a short‑lived depression is possible before conditions turn unfavorable late week. Formation chance: 40% (48 hr) / 40% (7 day).

Gulf of Mexico Outlook

Broadly quiet under high pressure with scattered diurnal storms; no areas of interest in the NHC outlook at this time. (Very warm waters continue to warrant routine monitoring as we head into late August.)

Florida Forecast

Florida stays in a typical late‑August pattern of heat/humidity with scattered afternoon sea‑breeze thunderstorms. No direct impacts from Erin are expected. High rip‑current risk persists on Atlantic beaches through at least the weekend due to distant Erin swells (high surf possible, especially Palm Beach County and north).

Key Environmental Factors

Sea‑surface temperatures: Warm and supportive across the Gulf/Caribbean and near‑to‑above average across portions of the MDR (based on NOAA OISST daily analyses).
Atmosphere: Environment conducive for the Leewards wave; only marginally favorable then unfavorable for AL99 late week (per NHC outlook text).

Outlook Summary

Erin remains a large, strong offshore hurricane, keeping significant surf/rip hazards along the East Coast while tracking away and weakening late‑week.
Central Atlantic wave: high chance to develop within 7 days near/just N of the Leewards. AL99: 40%/40% short‑lived potential.
Gulf & Florida: No immediate tropical concerns; watch for rip currents on Florida’s Atlantic coast and routine afternoon storms.

TL;DR:

Erin is Cat 2 offshore with 105 mph winds, 945 mb, and big surf/rips; a Leewards‑area wave has a 70% weeklong chance; AL99 has 40%. The Gulf is quiet; Florida faces rip‑current hazards plus the usual afternoon storms.

Alex Mitchell

Alexander Mitchell, a dedicated father, combines his passion for finance with a commitment to higher education. With expertise in finance and engineering, he strives to impart valuable knowledge to students. When he's not advancing academic pursuits, Alex cheers on his beloved Cleveland Browns, proudly representing his hometown.