Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 26, 2025: Gulf Moisture Lingers, Deep Tropics Show Early Signs of Change
Moisture continues to stream into Texas and Louisiana from the Gulf, while tropical waves in the deep Atlantic hint at a pattern shift. No named storms yet, but conditions are slowly becoming more favorable.
The Atlantic basin remains free of any named tropical cyclones, but not without activity. A persistent disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico continues to funnel tropical moisture into parts of Texas and Louisiana, while multiple tropical waves in the deep Atlantic are stirring early signals of future development.
This mid-season quiet is not unusual—but subtle shifts are beginning to show across the basin. As we approach August, conditions will slowly lean more favorable for storm formation.
Gulf of Mexico: Persistent Moisture, Low Development Potential
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR – GOES-19 Air Mass Composite – July 26, 2025 (Gulf)
A weak surface trough remains in the western Gulf of Mexico, associated with disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Current Status: No surface circulation, limited upper-level support
Rain Impacts: Coastal Texas and Louisiana remain under intermittent showers and thunderstorms through the weekend
Development Chance: Still near 0%—but the system is being monitored for changes
Elsewhere in the Gulf, conditions remain stable, with light to moderate winds and seas of 2–5 ft across most zones.
Tropical Waves: Marching Westward, Holding Potential
Several tropical waves remain active in the central and eastern Atlantic:
Wave near 40°W: Moving west at ~10–15 kt, producing scattered convection. Still disorganized but in warm waters with marginal wind shear.
Wave near 23°W (off Africa): Embedded in the monsoon trough. Convection flaring along southern flank; too early for development but bears watching.
None of these waves currently show signs of imminent organization, but they are tracking into warmer waters and a slowly improving environment.
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR – GOES-19 Sandwich Composite – July 26, 2025 (Tropical Atlantic)
Sea Surface Temperatures: Primed for August
Gulf of Mexico: 86–88°F across most areas
Caribbean Sea: Upper 80s°F, especially in the western basin
Main Development Region (MDR): 82–84°F, 1–2°F above average
The Atlantic remains historically warm, a key ingredient for fueling tropical cyclones as we near peak season.
SST data courtesy of Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Gradual Shift Unfolding
Wind Shear: Still moderate in the central Atlantic, but weakening trends are forecast
Moisture: Mid-level moisture increasing, especially south of 20°N
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Still active, but thinning between 35°W–50°W
These slow, quiet changes signal a transition to a more favorable setup in early August.
Dust & SAL data from Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Today’s Weather:
High: 90°F
Conditions: Partly sunny, humid
Storm Risk: Scattered inland thunderstorms after 2 PM
Winds: Light and variable
Prep Reminder: Monitor drainage around your property during afternoon storms
Rain forecast data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Check Local Shelters & Pet Plans
Locate your nearest hurricane shelter—especially if you're new to your area
Identify which shelters allow pets (many do, but require pre-registration)
Add leash, crate, and vaccination documents to your go-kit
Looking Ahead: Window of Quiet Before August Heats Up
Although no named systems are expected in the next 5–7 days, the setup across the basin is gradually shifting. The Gulf disturbance remains weak, but new tropical waves are aligning with less hostile conditions.
This is the time to finalize your hurricane supplies, prep your property, and stay informed.
Check back tomorrow for another update from Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 24, 2025: Gulf Disturbance Monitored as Tropics Remain Broadly Quiet
A weak disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico brings rain to the Gulf Coast, but tropical development chances remain low. Meanwhile, the broader Atlantic remains quiet.
As we near the close of July, the Atlantic remains largely stable, but the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a weak disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico for any signs of development. While conditions remain broadly unfavorable for rapid formation, subtle shifts in the atmosphere suggest we’re approaching a more active phase of the season.
Atlantic Basin: Broad Stability, But Eyes on the Gulf
As of the 8:00 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is reporting:
No active tropical cyclones
One disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico with low development chances
No tropical cyclone formation expected elsewhere over the next 7 days
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR – GOES-19 Air Mass Composite – July 24, 2025
Gulf of Mexico: Surface Trough Brings Rain, Low Development Risk
A broad surface trough located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms. While upper-level winds remain hostile to development, the NHC notes this system could persist for several days as it drifts slowly westward.
Formation chance (7 days): Low (near 10%)
Main impacts: Localized heavy rain along portions of the Gulf Coast (especially Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama)
Conditions: Disorganized thunderstorm activity, no defined surface circulation
Expect periodic showers and thunderstorms over coastal waters and possible heavy rainfall inland through the weekend.
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Caribbean Sea: Breezy Trades, Typical Mid-Summer Weather
No disturbances of concern
Fresh easterly trade winds dominate the central and southern basin
Scattered convection near the coasts of Central America (Panama, Nicaragua) due to the East Pacific Monsoon Trough
Seas remain moderate, with wave heights of 4 to 7 feet in open waters.
Wind forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Wave height forecast (ECMWF Waves) courtesy of Windy.com
Atlantic Tropical Waves: Multiple Waves Marching West
GOES-19 - Sector view: Tropical Atlantic - Sandwich - July 24, 2025
Several tropical waves are present across the Atlantic:
Central Atlantic Wave (~35W): Slowly advancing west with scattered convection, no signs of organization yet.
New Wave Near 23W (Far East Atlantic): Recently introduced by the NHC; embedded within the monsoon trough, showing convective activity near its southern flank.
Low Near 08N44W: Part of the broader monsoon trough; helping to enhance scattered thunderstorms but remains disorganized.
These features will be monitored over the next 7–10 days as they move into warmer waters and potentially more favorable conditions.
850 hPa wind data courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Dry Air Suppressing Growth
The Saharan dust plume continues to stretch across the central Atlantic, limiting tropical development by reducing moisture and increasing wind shear. However, long-range forecasts suggest the SAL may begin to thin as we move into August, potentially opening the door for more development.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust data courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Hot and Getting Hotter
Ocean temps across the basin remain above average:
Gulf of Mexico: 30–31°C (86–88°F)
Caribbean Sea: 29–30°C (84–86°F)
Main Development Region (MDR): 28–29°C (82–84°F)
These conditions are supportive of development—but only if wind shear and dry air ease.
Sea surface temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs: 89–91°F
Rain Chance: 50–60%, mainly afternoon thunderstorms driven by seabreeze interaction
Winds: Light southeast winds
Hazards: Isolated downpours, brief gusty winds
Rain forecast data courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Review Your Local Evacuation Zone
During quiet days, take time to review your local evacuation maps and zones:
Know when you would leave and where you’d go.
Print hard copies in case cell service fails.
Share your plan with family and neighbors.
Find evacuation information from your county emergency management office or state disaster preparedness website.
Looking Ahead: A Turn Toward Activity?
While the current atmosphere is keeping storms at bay, sea temperatures and tropical wave activity suggest a transition toward increased potential in early August. The Gulf disturbance is not expected to develop significantly, but it reminds us that the quiet can shift quickly.
Stay informed and prepared—Cat5Prep.com will continue tracking it all, daily.