Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 8, 2025: Dexter Is Now Post-Tropical; Invest 96L Gains Strength
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dexter exits the Atlantic, while Invest 96L shows increasing potential for tropical development. Conditions remain favorable with record-warm waters and weakening Saharan dust.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dexter is moving off into the North Atlantic, fully transitioning into an extratropical system. Meanwhile, tropical wave Invest 96L in the central Atlantic now has a high chance of development, and another system further east offers mid-range development potential.
Atlantic Basin Overview
Dexter has become an expanded, post-tropical storm centered near 41.4° N, 50.4° W
—convection is waning and structure is elongated. (NHC advisory)Invest 96L (tropical wave near ~38° W):
Development chances now stand at 60% within 7 days. Recent observations show disorganized showers, but environmental trends suggest improved potential.New wave along ~38° W with an embedded 1011 mb low around 17° N:
Minimal convection currently, but models indicate conditions may become more favorable later this weekend.
—Chance of development: Low in 48 hours, medium in 7 days.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Remain strongly elevated—2–4 °F above average, with localized hotspots reaching 90 °F—offering ample fuel for future storm growth.
Wind Shear: Still moderate to high in the central tropical Atlantic; however, models suggest gradual easing may occur later in the month.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Though dust continues to suppress early-season convection, its influence is weakening, particularly in the western basin.
Dust & SAL data from Windy.com
Gulf & Caribbean Update
No tropical activity present.
A high-pressure ridge maintains calm, dry conditions across both regions, with only typical late-summer showers in coastal zones.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf of America
GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean
Florida Forecast
Highs: Near 90 °F, with sticky, humid air.
Rain: 40–50% chance of afternoon thunderstorms driven by sea breezes.
Winds: Light and variable; no tropical weather expected.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day
With Invest 96L showing increasing organization potential, now is an excellent time to check:
Hurricane supply kits
Evacuation plans
Emergency alert systems across your household
TL;DR – August 8 Snapshot
Dexter has become post-tropical—no land threat.
Invest 96L: 60% chance of development over the next week.
Another eastern wave: Low immediate risk, medium chance in 7 days.
SSTs warm, SAL draining, shear easing—conditions veering toward more activity.
Stay tuned—peak season is ramping up quickly.
For daily updates, stay locked to Cat5Prep.com.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 4, 2025: Tropical Storm Dexter Forms; Two Other Systems Under Watch
Tropical Storm Dexter forms off the East Coast with no land threat. Meanwhile, a tropical wave off Africa and a low near the Southeast U.S. are being monitored as conditions slowly shift toward a more active period.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
Tropical Storm Dexter has developed in the western Atlantic, while two additional systems are being monitored for potential development. Conditions across the basin remain dynamic—with storm formation possible in coming days.
Atlantic Basin Summary
Tropical Storm Dexter: The fourth named storm of the 2025 season formed late Sunday night, now located ~255 miles northwest of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph, and the system is moving east-northeast. It’s expected to remain over open water and become post-tropical by Wednesday with no threat to U.S. land.
Disturbance AL95: A non-tropical low pressure area off the Southeast U.S. coast is being monitored with medium (30%) development chance over 7 days. Movement is east-northeast under weak shear, and formation may remain offshore.
New tropical wave emerging off Africa (~30°W): Forecast to track westward with scattered convection. The formation chance is 50% over 7 days, indicating growing potential for a tropical depression if favorable conditions develop.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
Waters in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and MDR remain warm at 29–31°C (84–88°F)—providing ample energy if atmospheric conditions become supportive.Wind Shear:
Still moderate to high across much of the Atlantic, limiting vertical storm structure. However, shear may relax in the western basin later this month.Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
Persistent dry, dusty air continues to suppress convection, especially over the eastern and central Atlantic. This remains a major inhibiting factor for newly emerging systems.Moisture:
Improving moisture levels seen in the western Caribbean and Gulf, though much of the basin remains too dry for sustained disturbance development.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Region
No tropical systems currently forming.
A dominant high-pressure ridge promotes generally calm, hot conditions across the Gulf and Caribbean.
Scattered showers remain typical for August, with no organized convection tied to tropical disturbances.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf
GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to near 90°F under humid conditions.
Afternoon thunderstorms: 40–50% chance, typically from sea breeze convergence—non-tropical in origin.
Winds: Light and variable inland; southeasterly near the coast.
No tropical storm impacts are expected today.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day
Stay connected to emerging tropical watches and alerts: sign up for NOAA and county-level emergency notifications, test weather radios, and review your communication plans with family or household members.
Looking Ahead
Though Dexter poses no immediate risk to land, the emerging wave and mid-Atlantic trough (AL95) warrant attention. The signal is clear: early August may mark the beginning of a more active period in the tropical Atlantic.
TL;DR – August 4, 2025 Summary
Tropical Storm Dexter forms off the East Coast—staying far offshore and weakest by midweek.
Low pressure (AL95) offshore Southeast U.S. with 30% development chance.
New wave off Africa (~30°W) entering the Atlantic—50% chance of development in 7 days.
SSTs supportive but SAL and shear remain inhibitory.
No threat to Florida; typical summer thunderstorms expected.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 3, 2025: Two Areas Now Under Watch
The Atlantic remains calm with no named storms, but two areas—one off the U.S. coast and another off Africa—are now under watch for potential tropical development. Here's today's scientific hurricane outlook.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
As early August continues, the Atlantic remains without any active tropical cyclones. However, two areas have emerged as brown disturbance watches, as forecasters monitor subtle signs that could impact the Atlantic if conditions shift.
Atlantic Basin Highlights
No active tropical storms in the basin.
Two areas are now under National Hurricane Center scrutiny:
Invest Area AL95: Expected to be a fish storm, it’s a non-tropical low just off the North Carolina coast—producing disorganized thunderstorms. (The orange X on the chart)
➤ Chance of development: Medium (30%) over the next 2–7 days.
➤ Movement: Toward the east-northeast at ~10 mph, expected to stay offshore.Emerging tropical wave off Africa: Near 30°W, forecast to move westward with scattered convection.
➤ Chance of development: Low (30%) within 7 days.
GOES-19 - Sector view: North Atlantic - Sandwich - August 3, 2025
GOES-19 - Sector view: Tropical Atlantic - Sandwich - August 3, 2025
Key Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea remain very warm, with temperatures ranging from 29–31°C (84–88°F). The Main Development Region (MDR) is also running slightly above average. These warm waters provide abundant fuel for tropical development — if other atmospheric factors allow.Wind Shear:
Moderate to high vertical wind shear persists across the central Atlantic, particularly along the latitude band where Disturbance 2 is located. This disrupts the vertical alignment of developing systems and limits the ability of convection to consolidate around a center.Moisture:
Mid-level moisture is gradually increasing across the western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. However, the central Atlantic remains drier overall, especially in areas affected by Saharan dust, limiting deep convection and thunderstorm persistence.Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
A robust SAL is sweeping across the central and eastern Atlantic, characterized by dry, dusty air and suppressed vertical motion. The SAL also contributes to a stable atmosphere, effectively capping thunderstorm development and working against tropical wave organization.
Implication for Disturbance 2:
While ocean temperatures are favorable, the combined influence of high wind shear, limited moisture, and widespread SAL intrusion is expected to stall or inhibit further development of Disturbance 2 as it continues westward across the tropical Atlantic. Until it reaches a more favorable environment, organization remains unlikely.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Region
No disturbances active in the Gulf, and high-pressure conditions support light winds and minimal rain outside normal sea‑breeze showers.
Eastern Caribbean: A wave near 68°W is producing localized storms over Hispaniola and Venezuela but remains disorganized.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf of America - Sandwich - August 3, 2025
GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean - Sandwich - August 3, 2025
Florida Weather Outlook
Highs: Near 90 °F under sticky, humid conditions.
Conditions: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms from sea breeze interactions.
No tropical impacts expected today.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Know Your Warning Signals
Test your alert systems today:
Confirm subscription to NOAA alerts and local county emergency systems.
Test NOAA weather radios and storm tracker apps.
Make sure household members know hurricane communication plans and locations of essential documents.
Outlooking Ahead
Invest Area AL95, while moving away from land, bears watching if it gains tropical characteristics. Meanwhile, the wave off Africa will pass into warmer waters—another early‑August indicator. Meteorological models forecast these systems might strengthen if wind shear declines and dust regresses later this month.
TL;DR – August 3 Hurricane Summary
No storms currently in the Atlantic basin.
AL95 (off North Carolina): 30% chance of development over the next week. (Fish Storm)
African wave near 30°W: 20% chance of development within 7 days.
Factors are currently favoring disorganization.
SSTs are warm and moisture is increasing—conditions may improve in early August.
Immediate risk remains low; now is a good window for storm preparedness.
Stay alert and ready with daily forecasts at Cat5Prep.com.