Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 10, 2025: Multiple tropical waves crossing the Atlantic; development chances gaining
Multiple tropical waves are moving across the Atlantic today, but Saharan dust, wind shear, and dry air are keeping development chances low. Warm ocean temperatures could allow for changes later this week.
Atlantic Basin Overview
TLDR Version; Jump Here
As of this morning, no named tropical cyclones are active in the Atlantic. Several tropical waves are traveling westward across the Main Development Region (MDR), but most are struggling with environmental challenges that limit development. Sea surface temperatures are amply warm, so these waves will continue to be monitored as they move toward more favorable conditions later this week.
Key Systems We’re Watching
Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (~40°W):
Moving west at 10–15 knots with scattered convection. Organization remains limited due to dry air and moderate wind shear. Low chance of development over the next 7 days.Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave (~23°W, off Africa):
Recently emerged from the continent with convection along its southern flank. Battling Saharan dust and dry air, keeping development chances low in the near term, potentially gaining strength in next 7-days.Monsoon Trough Low (~08N44W):
Embedded within the monsoon trough, sparking intermittent thunderstorm activity. No immediate signs of organized development.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Tropical Atlantic
GFS Future 8/18/25 - Curving NE off Coast of US
Euro Future 8/20/25 - Curving NE off Coast of US
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
MDR running 28–29.5°C (82–85°F), with 29–31°C (84–88°F) in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico—plenty of fuel for storms if other conditions improve.Wind Shear:
Moderate to high shear in the central Atlantic is tilting storm structures and preventing vertical stacking of thunderstorms, slowing development.Moisture:
Humidity is increasing in the western tropical Atlantic, but dry air still lingers across much of the MDR.Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
Dry, dusty air extends across the eastern and central MDR, suppressing convection and capping short-term development potential.
Regional Outlooks
Gulf of Mexico:
No organized tropical disturbances. Typical summer thunderstorms will continue along coastal areas.Caribbean Sea:
Fresh trades persist in the south-central basin with occasional showers. No organized systems.U.S. Southeast & Florida:
Hot and humid with scattered sea-breeze thunderstorms each afternoon. No tropical threats expected today.
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf
GOES-19 - Sector view: Caribbean
Looking Ahead (5–10 Days)
The “wave train” from Africa will continue. As SAL weakens and shear pockets relax later this week, one of these waves could encounter a more favorable environment, especially in the central/western MDR.
Prep Reminder
This quiet stretch is the ideal time to review your hurricane plan, restock supplies, and confirm your household communication strategy.
TL;DR – August 10, 2025:
No active storms; several tropical waves in the MDR.
Development chances remain low in the short term due to SAL, wind shear, and patchy moisture.
Warm SSTs mean conditions could turn more favorable later this week. (Chance 70% Dev in next 7-days)
No tropical impacts expected for the U.S. today.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 21, 2025: Tropics Active with Waves, But No Imminent Threats
The Atlantic remains cyclone-free, but several tropical waves are moving across the basin. Conditions are gradually becoming more favorable for development as July progresses.
The tropical Atlantic is becoming increasingly active, with multiple tropical waves progressing westward across the basin. While none are expected to develop in the short term, the setup is a reminder that we are entering a more climatologically favorable period for storm formation.
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Atlantic Basin Overview: No Cyclones, But Multiple Waves
As of the 8:00 AM EDT update from the National Hurricane Center:
No active tropical cyclones
No systems with high development potential at this time
Disturbance 1: A tropical wave near 40°W is producing scattered convection, but environmental conditions remain only marginally favorable.
Formation chance (7 days): 20%
Movement: West to west-northwest at 10–15 mph
New Wave Introduced: A second tropical wave near 23°W, just offshore of Africa, is showing scattered moderate convection on its southern flank.
Too early to determine development potential, but it will be watched over the coming days.
Monsoon Trough Low: A weak low embedded along the monsoon trough near 08N44W is sparking convection, but not currently organized.
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR – GOES-19 Air Mass Composite – July 21, 2025
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Still Warm
Gulf of Mexico: 86–88°F – well above average
Western Caribbean: 85–87°F – supportive of development
Main Development Region (MDR): 82–84°F and climbing, with warm anomalies persisting
Warm waters throughout the basin provide the necessary energy for storms should other conditions align.
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear and Atmospheric Conditions
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Shear remains moderate across much of the central and eastern Atlantic but is expected to weaken later in the week.
Moisture levels continue rising, particularly in the MDR and Caribbean.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Still present but beginning to thin slightly, particularly west of 40°W.
These factors collectively suggest improving potential for storm development by late July or early August.
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean Outlook
A surface trough remains in the eastern Bay of Campeche, producing scattered thunderstorms.
Light to moderate winds (10–15 kt) dominate much of the Gulf, with seas around 3–5 feet.
Fresh winds (15–20 kt) and higher seas (6–8 ft) continue across parts of the south-central Caribbean.
Expect stronger trades and more convection near the Windward Passage and central Caribbean midweek as a tropical wave enters the region.
Wave height forecast (ECMWF Waves) courtesy of Windy.com
Surface pressure data (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast
Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s°F
Humidity: High
Rain Chances: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms, driven by sea breezes and instability
Winds: Light and variable, turning southeast near the coast
Hazards: Isolated strong storms possible with gusty winds and localized flooding
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Update Insurance and Inventory
Use this lull to get your disaster documentation in order:
Review your homeowners or renters insurance policy
Document your belongings via photos or video
Store digital backups in the cloud
Know your flood zone and verify your flood insurance coverage
Looking Ahead: Tropics Warming Up
While no tropical cyclone development is expected in the next 7 days, the overall pattern is becoming more favorable. Multiple waves in the deep tropics bear watching, and model guidance hints at potential activity in early August. We'll continue monitoring all waves for signs of organization.
Stay informed, stay prepared, and check back daily for updates from Cat5Prep.com.