Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – September 3, 2025
On September 3, the Atlantic basin remains free of active tropical cyclones. A tropical wave emerging from Africa is showing increased signs of organization, with the NHC assigning a 70% chance of development over the next week. This system could become Tropical Depression Seven or Tropical Storm Gabrielle. Florida and the Gulf of Mexico remain quiet, experiencing only typical late-summer thunderstorms.
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Atlantic remains quiet; African wave now has 70% 7-day development odds
Atlantic Basin Overview
No Active Storms
The Atlantic basin continues to be free of active tropical cyclones—no storms are currently present.Tropical Wave Off Africa
A tropical wave exiting Africa is gaining strength. The NHC now gives this system a 0% development chance in 48 hours, rising to 70% over 7 days. Development into Tropical Depression Seven—and possibly Tropical Storm Gabrielle—is considered likely by the weekend.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Remain warm in the Caribbean and Gulf (about 29–31 °C) but cooler farther east, where the African wave is located.
Wind Shear: Moderate to strong shear persists across much of the Atlantic but may ease near the developing wave.
Mid-Level Humidity & SAL: Dry air and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are widespread, but are expected to diminish along the wave’s path as it tracks westward.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean
The Gulf remains quiet, dominated by high pressure. Only routine afternoon thunderstorms are expected along coastal areas; no tropical development is expected at this time.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Florida continues with typical early-September weather: hot and humid, with scattered sea-breeze-driven afternoon thunderstorms. No tropical threats are expected. Coastal waters are calmer as the Atlantic’s longtime surf persists from prior systems but gently subsides.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Summary
Atlantic basin remains calm with no systems currently active.
A tropical wave off Africa shows a high (70%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 7 days.
Environmental factors—warm SSTs but competing dry air, SAL, and wind shear—will determine if and when development occurs.
Gulf and Florida remain storm-free and continue typical late-summer weather patterns.
TL;DR – September 3 Snapshot
Atlantic is quiet with no storms.
African wave now has 70% development odds over the next 7 days.
Atlantic environment remains marginal but improving near the wave.
Florida and Gulf remain calm with routine storms.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – September 2, 2025
On September 2, the Atlantic remains storm-free with no active tropical cyclones. A tropical wave emerging off the coast of Africa shows rising organization and carries a 70% chance of development within 7 days. Environmental conditions are gradually improving, though dry air and Saharan dust remain factors. The Gulf of Mexico and Florida stay calm with only typical early-September thunderstorms.
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Atlantic remains quiet; African wave gaining strength with a 70% 7-day development chance
Atlantic Basin Overview
No Active Storms
The Atlantic basin remains clear of any active tropical cyclones.Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa
A tropical wave located south of the Cabo Verde Islands is showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are becoming more favorable, prompting a forecast of a low 30% chance of formation in the next 48 hours, rising significantly to a high 70% chance of development over the next 7 days.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Remain warm (~29–31 °C) in the Caribbean and Gulf, supportive for tropical development. Cooler conditions persist in the open Atlantic.
Wind Shear: Moderate to strong across much of the Atlantic; however, shear is forecast to ease gradually across the eastern tropical Atlantic, aiding organization of the wave.
Mid-Level Humidity & SAL: While dry air and Saharan Dust (SAL) remain present, pockets of increasing moisture near the African wave are aiding its potential development.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean
The Gulf remains quiet, dominated by high pressure. Expect only daily sea-breeze afternoon thunderstorms—no tropical development is anticipated.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Florida continues with typical early-September weather—hot, humid, and prone to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. There are no tropical threats or coastal hazards affecting the state at this time.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Summary
Atlantic basin remains calm, but one African wave shows high development potential (70%) over 7 days.
Environmental factors including SSTs, shear, moisture, and SAL will determine whether it organizes.
Gulf and Florida experience routine late-summer weather; no tropical systems in the near term.
TL;DR – September 2 Snapshot
Atlantic quiet with no storms.
70% chance a wave near Africa develops in the next 7 days.
Warm SSTs but competing shear and dry air—watch environment closely.
Florida and Gulf remain in standard summer pattern.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – September 1, 2025
On September 1, the Atlantic remains storm-free with no active cyclones. A tropical wave emerging off the coast of Africa carries a 40% chance of development over the next 7 days. While environmental conditions—wind shear, dry air, and Saharan dust—are suppressing rapid growth, the wave will be monitored closely. Florida and the Gulf of Mexico remain quiet, experiencing only typical early-September thunderstorms.
TLDR Version: Click Here
Atlantic remains quiet; tropical wave off Africa shows rising potential (40% over 7 days)
Atlantic Basin Overview
No Active Storms
There are currently no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin—the first tranquil period we've seen since the wake of Fernand and Erin.Emerging Tropical Wave Off Africa
A new tropical wave has emerged off the West Coast of Africa near Guinea-Bissau. Presently disorganized, the NHC assigns it a 0% chance of development in the next 48 hours, but the probability rises to about 40% over the next 7 days. This system will be closely monitored as it moves west across the tropical Atlantic.
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Remain warm in the Gulf and Caribbean (29–31 °C), while the open Atlantic heat content diminishes northward.
Wind Shear: Elevated shear across much of the basin continues to suppress storm formation.
Mid-Level Humidity & SAL (Saharan Air Layer): Dry air and SAL dust are widespread, inhibiting significant convection and limiting the strength of the new wave emerging off Africa.
Gulf of America & Caribbean
The Gulf remains stable and quiet, under the influence of high pressure. Only routine afternoon sea-breeze thunderstorms are expected—no tropical threats are present.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Florida continues in its trademark late-August/early-September pattern: hot, humid, with scattered afternoon thunderstorms. With no active systems nearby, no coastal or tropical threats are expected this week.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Summary
No storms are currently active in the Atlantic basin.
A tropical wave off Africa is being monitored, with a 40% chance of developing within 7 days.
Environmental factors—including cool SSTs, strong shear, dry air, and SAL—are suppressing tropical development.
Gulf and Florida remain quiet, with only standard summertime weather patterns in play.
TL;DR – September 1 Snapshot
Atlantic is fully quiet; no active storms.
Tropical wave off Africa now has 40% 7-day development odds.
Hostile conditions in place, limiting immediate storm formation.
Florida and Gulf remain calm, aside from typical daily thunderstorms.
