Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 25, 2025
Tropical Storm Fernand continues east of Bermuda with sustained winds near 50 mph and will weaken as it moves into cooler waters. Erin’s legacy swells still drive dangerous surf and rip currents from the Carolinas to New England. Florida and the Gulf remain calm, with only routine summer thunderstorms.
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Tropical Storm Fernand holds strength offshore; environmental factors limit wider Atlantic development
Atlantic Basin Overview
Tropical Storm Fernand
Fernand is located about 360 miles east-northeast of Bermuda, carrying sustained winds near 50 mph while moving north-northeast at ~12 mph. The system may strengthen slightly today but will soon encounter cooler waters and stronger upper-level winds, leading to weakening and a transition to a post-tropical cyclone by midweek. No coastal warnings are in effect, and Fernand poses no threat to land.
Hurricane Erin’s Legacy
Erin’s powerful circulation has long dissipated, but the swell energy lingers. Beaches from the Carolinas to New England remain at risk for dangerous rip currents, elevated surf, and localized erosion, even as skies improve inland.
Other Atlantic Activity
A tropical wave in the Caribbean and another in the central Atlantic show low development chances. The NHC assigns only a 10% probability of tropical formation through 7 days. Dry air and hostile shear continue to suppress organization.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean
The Gulf is quiet under high pressure with only routine afternoon thunderstorms along the coast. Very warm waters (29–31 °C) cover the basin, but no tropical development is expected in the near term.
Florida & Southeast U.S. Forecast
Florida remains locked in a late-August cycle: hot, humid conditions and scattered afternoon thunderstorms driven by the sea breeze. Some areas also see morning showers drifting in from the Gulf, making for a two-phase rain pattern.
No tropical threats are present, but Atlantic beaches continue to face rip current risks due to Fernand’s swells and Erin’s lingering wave action.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): The Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are running 29–31 °C (84–88 °F), supportive of development. In the western Atlantic, SSTs are warm enough to sustain Fernand briefly, but cooler waters to the north will drive weakening.
Wind Shear: Currently low to moderate around Fernand, allowing some maintenance of strength. However, increasing shear northward will disrupt convection and hasten its post-tropical transition. Shear also remains moderate to strong across much of the MDR, suppressing other disturbances.
Mid-Level Relative Humidity (RH): Dry air pockets persist in the central Atlantic, limiting organization of Invest 99L and other waves. Moisture is more favorable closer to the Caribbean and Gulf.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): SAL dust continues to intrude across parts of the eastern and central Atlantic, reducing convection and capping development potential.
Summary
Fernand is a 50 mph tropical storm, staying well offshore and weakening by midweek.
Erin’s swells continue to fuel dangerous surf and rip currents along the East Coast.
Environmental conditions (SSTs supportive, but SAL, dry mid-level air, and increasing shear) are limiting further Atlantic development.
Gulf and Florida remain quiet, aside from routine thunderstorms and coastal surf hazards.
TL;DR – August 25 Snapshot
Fernand stays offshore, no U.S. land threat, weakening soon.
Rip currents and surf hazards linger along the East Coast.
SAL, shear, and dry mid-level air suppress new storm formation.
Gulf and Florida remain in a routine summer pattern.
As always, check back at CAT5Prep.com for daily hurricane updates, and also visit our Hurricane Prep Blog to find ways you can prepare during hurricanes.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 14, 2025: Erin strengthening over the central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Erin is organizing over the central Atlantic and could become a hurricane within 24 hours. A low-risk Gulf disturbance may bring rain to parts of NE Mexico and South Texas. U.S. impacts are limited to surf and rip currents.
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Erin strengthening over the central Atlantic; low‑chance Gulf disturbance; U.S. impacts limited to surf and rip currents for now
Tropical Storm Erin continues to organize over the central tropical Atlantic and is forecast to become a hurricane within the next day and possibly a major hurricane this weekend. A separate weak disturbance near the southwest Gulf has low odds of development. No tropical cyclones are expected to affect the U.S. in the short term, but increasing surf and rip current hazards are likely along portions of the East Coast into next week.
Atlantic Basin Overview
Tropical Storm Erin (central Atlantic):
Erin remains the only active named system. Hurricane Hunters are slated to sample the storm as it moves into a more favorable environment for intensification. Forecast guidance indicates hurricane strength by Friday and a risk of rapid intensification this weekend, with a track bending northwest and staying well east of the U.S. mainland.Current intensity snapshot:
Recent analyses place Erin over the central Atlantic with sustained winds near 50 mph as it organizes. Expect a steady strengthening trend over very warm waters.Swell & surf impacts:
Even with a track offshore, long‑period swells from Erin are expected to raise the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along parts of the U.S. East Coast next week (Outer Banks and elsewhere). Coastal visitors should heed local beach forecasts.
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Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean
Southwest Gulf disturbance:
A weak, broad trough near the Bay of Campeche/Yucatán region will move west toward northeastern Mexico late week. NHC assigns low (20%) odds of development over the next 2–7 days; regardless, increased showers and a slight uptick in swells are possible near the lower Texas coast and northeast Mexico late Friday into Saturday.Rest of the Gulf & Caribbean:
Elsewhere, no organized disturbances. Typical trade‑wind showers continue in the Caribbean with seasonably warm seas and generally modest marine conditions.
GOES - GULF - August 14, 2025
GOES - Caribbean - August 14, 2025
Florida & Southeast U.S. Outlook
Florida (statewide):
A typical mid‑August pattern prevails—hot and humid with scattered afternoon thunderstorms driven by sea‑breeze collisions; storms are not tropical in origin. Coastal surf may gradually build this weekend into early next week from distant Erin, especially along the Atlantic beaches; check local rip‑current statements.Southeast coast:
Periods of higher surf and a rising rip‑current threat are expected as Erin strengthens and passes well offshore. Timing and magnitude depend on Erin’s exact intensity and position early next week.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Environmental Setup (Why/Why Not Development)
Sea Surface Temperatures:
MDR and western Atlantic waters remain well above average, offering ample oceanic heat content for Erin’s intensification.Wind Shear & Moisture:
Shear over Erin’s corridor is forecast to be moderate and easing, with improving mid‑level moisture—conditions supportive of strengthening. Farther west, shear and intermittent dry intrusions continue to limit other waves.Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
SAL is less dominant along Erin’s immediate path than earlier this month, while remaining a suppressing factor for some eastern/central MDR waves.
Preparedness Note
Use this window before any U.S. threats to review evacuation routes, check insurance documents, and ensure you’re enrolled in local emergency alerts. Elevated surf and rip currents can be dangerous well ahead of any storm—swim near lifeguards and follow beach flags.
TL;DR – August 14 Snapshot
Erin is strengthening over the central Atlantic; hurricane likely by Friday, major hurricane possible this weekend; track keeps it well offshore of the U.S. for now.
Low‑chance (20%) disturbance in the southwest Gulf may bring showers/surf to NE Mexico/South Texas late week; development unlikely.
Florida & Gulf: No tropical threats today—typical sea‑breeze storms; watch for building Atlantic surf/rip currents into next week.