Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 13, 2025: Erin Expected to Become 2025’s First Major Hurricane; U.S. Coast Still Unthreatened
Tropical Storm Erin is gaining strength in the Atlantic and could reach major hurricane status this weekend. Forecasts keep it well offshore, but the Southeast coast will see increasing surf and rip currents. Gulf and Florida remain quiet.
A couple disturbances being monitored along with TS Erin
TLDR Version: Click Here
Tropical Storm Erin is continuing its westward progression across the eastern Atlantic, with strong model agreement that it will likely intensify into a major hurricane this weekend. While its path remains well east of the U.S., coastal regions should prepare for elevated surf and rip current risks in the coming days.
Atlantic Basin Overview
Tropical Storm Erin remains steady with sustained winds of 45 mph, moving west at 20 mph.
Forecasts now indicate Erin may become a Category 3 hurricane by Sunday, as environmental conditions improve.
Some models suggest Erin will pass north of the northern Leeward Islands, with a likely northwest turn before reaching the Bahamas—thereby minimizing direct U.S. impacts.
Meanwhile, Invest 96L and other tropical waves remain under observation, but Erin is the dominant system for now.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Conditions
Gulf of America (Mexico): Calm and quiet. Sea surface temperatures are approximately 2°F above average, creating favorable conditions—but without current disturbances.
Caribbean Sea: Trade winds and typical convection dominate. No organized systems at this time.
GOES - GULF - Sandwich - August 13, 2025
GOES - Caribbean - Sandwich - August 13, 2025
Florida & Southeast Outlook
Forecast: Expect hot, humid conditions with typical afternoon sea-breeze thunderstorms. These are non-tropical and not linked to Erin.
Marine Hazards: Elevated surf and dangerous rip currents are becoming a concern along the Southeast coast due to Erin’s offshore activity.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Looking Ahead & Preparation
Erin is on track to intensify significantly but should remain well offshore through the weekend.
Continue watching Invest 96L and subsequent waves for potential tropical development.
Residents along the Southeast coast should prepare for marine hazards—not wind or rain threats at this stage.
TL;DR – August 13 Snapshot
Erin is strengthening—expected to become 2025’s first major hurricane.
Forecast track keeps it east of the U.S. mainland.
Gulf and Florida remain calm, with routine summer weather.
Watch for increasing surf and rip current hazards along the Eastern Seaboard.
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