Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 9, 2025: Quiet Tropics with More Waves Brewing
Tropics stay quiet as Invest 96L weakens, but a fresh African wave is gaining attention with a 30% development chance in the next week. Peak season conditions are setting up.
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The Atlantic remains calm, but early signs indicate a potential ramp-up in activity. One tropical wave is weakening, while another emerging off Africa is attracting attention due to improving environmental conditions.
Atlantic Basin Overview
Invest AL96 (Central Atlantic):
The tropical wave associated with AL96 has seen its convection collapse in recent days, largely due to dry, Saharan-influenced air. Development chances remain low at 0–2 days, though gradual organization may become possible in the middle of next week as the system moves northwestward .New African Tropical Wave:
A fresh tropical wave just exiting the African coast has been designated an area of interest. The NHC currently assigns a 30% chance of development over the next 7 days. Long-range models depict a perhaps more favorable environment, suggesting potential development beyond a week and possible impacts in the eastern Caribbean around August 16–17.
Possible hurricane development in the Caribbean newest Tropical Wave. Forecast for around August 20, 2025
Key Environmental Conditions
Seasonal Shift Underway:
Climatologically, the Atlantic heads into its most active phase by mid-August. Increased sea surface temperatures, decreasing wind shear, and waning Saharan dust set the stage for heightened storm activity.
Dust & SAL data from Windy.com
Florida & Coastal Outlook
No threats to land are expected over the next 10 days—including Florida and the continental U.S.—according to current tropical storm patterns and long-range models.
Ripple Effects: Though storm formation is uncertain, increased attention should be paid to rip currents and surf conditions as system trajectories evolve.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
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TL;DR – August 9 Snapshot
Invest 96L: Diminishing convection now, slight development possible later next week.
African wave: 30% chance of forming in 7 days; more model support for mid- to late-August activity.
Environment: Conditions are trending more favorable—very warm waters, less dust, easing shear.
Threat to U.S.: None imminent, but upward trend in activity expected ahead.
Stay alert. Peak season is building fast. Visit CAT5Prep.com for updates.
